NFL Backfields Shaping Up to Be 2024 Fantasy Football Nightmares
Running backs used to be the unquestioned kings of fantasy football. But times have changed—the first round of drafts now usually features more wide receivers than backs.
That's due to a number of factors—one of which is the shrinking number of true featured running backs in the NFL. There are still some "workhorse" backs like Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers, Jonathan Taylor of the Indianapolis Colts and Saquon Barkley of the Philadelphia Eagles. But their numbers are seemingly dwindling by the year.
The evolution of the position has forced fantasy managers to look past the featured backs into backfields that feature some sort of timeshare. Sometimes, that works out fine—there's a good chance that both Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery of the Detroit Lions will be productive fantasy assets in 2024, just as they were a year ago.
But sometimes, those timeshares descend into chaos—into a muddied mess where either both backs are relegated to the fantasy fringes or there's no telling from week to week which back will be "the guy."
For every back shouldering a heavy load in today's NFL, there's a backfield with the potential to become a fantasy nightmare.
And no manager wants to invest too heavily in Freddie Krueger.
His 40 time is surprisingly bad.
Miami Dolphins
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The Miami Dolphins have one of the most explosive offenses in the game. They also have a backfield that could leave fantasy managers tearing their hair out in 2024.
Especially those who invest in youngster De'Von Achane as a fantasy RB1.
To be clear, Achane is an electrifying talent—his 7.8 yards per carry as a rookie was an NFL record for a back with at least 100 carries. There are those in the fantasy community, including John Laghezza of The Athletic, who believe Achane can be a league winner this season.
"Achane makes the shortest list of most impactful players on a per-snap basis, finishing first as a rookie among all RBs with +100 touches in Fantasy Points/Snap (0.67), Fantasy Points/Touch (1.47), YPA (7.8), Yards Before Contact/Rush (2.7), Yards After Contact/Rush (5.1), EPA/Rush (0.28), and Explosive Rush Rate (15.5%)," he said. "His sophomore season is set up for massive success if Miami's runway is clear for a full complement of playing time, with only 32-year-old veteran Raheem Mostert and fourth-round rookie Jaylen Wright in his way."
The problem is that runway isn't clear. Mostert logged over 100 more carries last year than Achane and led the league with 18 rushing touchdowns. While speaking to reporters, Dolphins head coach Mike McDaniel lauded his backs—while stating that Mostert remains the team's lead runner.
"I think we are very fortunate to have a group of running backs that really from across the board," he said, "it's hard to even say top to bottom because there's such great competition and you wouldn't be doing justice to the entire group if you were trying to crown this person or that person, but the whole group, pretty much led by Raheem (Mostert), it is of quality and depth as good as I've been around and been around a lot of good groups."
Can Mostert, who is being drafted rounds after Achane, back up last year's success? Will Achane seize the reins as Miami's top back? How does talented rookie Jaylen Wright figure into the mix?
Those are questions we may not have the answers to until well into the regular season.
Washington Commanders
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There may not be a harder fantasy backfield to get a handle on this season than in the nation's capital.
The incumbent back for the Commanders is Brian Robinson Jr., who gained just over 1,100 total yards in 2023. Marcus Mosher of The 33rd Team believes that the arrival of new offensive coordinator Kliff Kingsbury could unlock a whole new level from Robinson this season.
"Kingsbury loves to run the ball near the goal line, and we saw that in play in 2021 when James Conner had 18 touchdowns in 15 games," Mosher said. "Conner wasn't even the starting running back for the Cardinals yet produced a Pro Bowl season. Kingsbury favors a balanced approach despite using an Air Raid offense. Robinson isn't that different from Conner, but he is much more explosive and could post huge numbers in 2024. If Daniels can keep defenses honest with his arm and legs, that should open up more rushing lanes."
In terms of ADP, however, Robinson isn't even the first Commanders back being selected in fantasy drafts. That would be free-agent acquisition Austin Ekeler, who told The NFL Network that he has no intention of being a bit player behind Robinson.
"When Austin Ekeler has been healthy on the field, he has produced," Ekeler said. "And so that's the same thing going forward here. If I'm healthy, I'm going to be on the field and I'm going to be producing. You've seen what it looks like when I produce, so you're going to want me on your (fantasy) team."
Ekeler's injury-marred 2023 campaign was a forgettable one, but as recently as 2022 he surpassed 1,600 total yards, scored 18 touchdowns and was the No. 1 back in all of fantasy football.
The best-case scenario here would be one back emerging as the clear No. 1 option. But so long as both are healthy, a full-blown committee may well be in store.
Tennessee Titans
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The Tennessee Titans are beginning a new era in the backfield. For years, Derrick Henry dominated the running back touches in Nashville. But now Henry is in Baltimore—and the Titans have to figure out what's next.
The team addressed Henry's departure in free agency by signing free agent Tony Pollard, who spent 2023 as lead back for the Dallas Cowboys. The Titans also have second-year pro Tyjae Spears on the roster, who flashed at times as a rookie on the way to averaging 4.5 yards per carry and catching 52 passes.
New Titans head coach Brian Callahan told reporters he expects both backs to play significant roles for the team in 2024.
"Generally speaking, you try to find -- when you go into a game, you highlight a handful of plays that they like," Callahan said. "They're both different style runners. Tyjae has plays that he likes, Tony has plays that he likes. And so you sort of star those plays and you put their names on them. So, when you call those, you make sure that they get those carries that they feel good about. That's how you naturally split the labor in the running back room."
Pollard is coming off fantasy draft boards about two rounds before Spears on average. But last year at least, Spears was the more effective player on a per-touch basis. Jared Dubin of CBS Sports expects that to continue in 2024.
"Spears surprisingly out-snapped Derrick Henry during his rookie season, and looked electric whenever the Titans got the ball in his hands," Dubin said. "Now splitting the backfield with Tony Pollard, and with coach Brian Callahan talking up each of their respective abilities in the passing game, Spears should have significant runway to emerge as a major two-way threat."
Again, it would be optimal if one back established himself as the clear No. 1, whether it's Pollard or Spears. But as things stand now, Callahan appears content to split the workload (and the fantasy production) essentially right down the middle.
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Atlanta Falcons
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OK, so a lot of folks are probably surprised to see the Atlanta Falcons listed here. After all, Falcons running back Bijan Robinson has an average draft position of third among running backs.
Back in June, Falcons head coach Raheem Morris told reporters that his plans for the 2024 campaign included getting Robinson the ball as much as possible.
"When you get the ball in his hands, he makes people miss. He gets extra yards and he's able to fight for extra yards, he breaks tackles, he's fast, he's explosive and he's strong. He could do so many things that you can get overwhelmed sometimes, maybe as a play-caller or as a designer. For him, I think he really enjoys the whole process. I think he compared himself to that Christian McCaffrey role. If we can get anywhere near the great player Christian McCaffrey is, I think we will all be pretty excited."
So, what's the problem? It's the same as a year ago—the presence of third-year tailback Tyler Allgeier.
Offensive coordinator Zac Robinson told reporters recently that just as he did last year, Allgeier is going to have a significant role in the Atlanta offense.
"Tyler's going to have a great role in this offense," Robinson said. "He just wants to get on the field in any way. Tyler is going to have a big role, and certainly, at certain points in the season, we're going to be leaning on him."
That last part should terrify fantasy managers spending a first-round pick on Robinson. Allgeier didn't stop Robinson from being a top-10 running back last year, but his 204 touches in 2023 certainly capped Robinson's fantasy ceiling.
Having two talented backs is a good thing for the Falcons. But for Robinson to live up to his ADP, he's going to need to be a workhorse.
Workhorses don't cede 200 touches to another back.
Cincinnati Bengals
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As the Cincinnati Bengals attempt to rinse off the stink of a disappointing 2023 season, there are major changes afoot in the backfield.
The Bengals traded longtime tailback Joe Mixon to the Houston Texans, essentially replacing him with fifth-year veteran Zack Moss. Moss is coming off the board in the eighth round on average, and LaQuan Jones of the NFL Network sees value in that pick.
"Moss fits what the Bengals are looking for in a running back who could do it all," Jones said. "Pass protection, early-down back, pass-catcher, and the ability to execute in the red zone. He was very productive against some tough defenses last season. For example, he had 32 touches with 122 rushing yards and one receiving touchdown against the Ravens' defense last season. Pretty impressive. This is his backfield with Chase Brown involved in a limited capacity."
However, for every fantasy pundit that believes that Moss will be a featured back in 2024, there's another who feels that Brown could be in for a Year 2 breakout.
Just ask the staff at Fantasy Pros.
"Brown provides the Bengals with an explosive play threat," they wrote. "He finished with only one fewer 20+ yard rush than Joe Mixon, who had 213 more carries than Brown in 2023. Brown has a history of explosive plays. He had 48 10+ yard runs during his final year of college and forced a whopping 83 missed tackles. Zack Moss projects to enter the year as the starter, but his spot atop the depth chart is tenuous. He's never been more than a decent running back. This caliber of player is useful for gauging Brown's ability. If he can't beat out Moss, then we all wasted our time here. But he has the athletic tools and the big play ability to make a name for himself in Cincinnati."
Last year, the Bengals had just 383 rushing attempts—third-fewest in the league. If the Bengals backfield devolves into a full-blown committee, it's going to become difficult for fantasy managers to trust either back.
Pittsburgh Steelers
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On some level, it might not be entirely fair to call the Steelers backfield a "nightmare." If 2023 was any indication, we know what we're going to get—a "Thunder and Lightning" combination of Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren.
Last year, it was Harris who received the majority of the touches—284 to Warren's 210. But thanks to Warren's 61 receptions he actually finished three spots higher than Harris in PPR points. Both backs finished among the top-25 running backs, and both are being drafted within 10 picks of one another on average.
Harris' barely cracked four yards per carry last year, but Derrik Klassen of the Athletic thinks the big man could thrive in a contract year in Arthur Smith's offense.
"I think Najee Harris leads the league in rushing by 200 yards," Klassen said on The Athletic Football Show. "Arthur Smith wants the big man to run the ball. Look at all of the guys that he's given a ton of carries to, whether it was Tyler Allgeier or Derrick Henry. He's going to give the big man the ball. If this young offensive line can at least be an above- average unit and if Darnell Washington can be a useful piece, they are going to give the ball to Najee Harris, he's going to get enough volume. I think Najee Harris is way better than people think."
However, there are also those like Kyle Soppe of Pro Football Network who think that Warren should receive a bigger share of the rushing pie.
"Warren averaged 60% more yards per carry before first contact last season than Harris and is simply the more explosive player," Soppe said. "He finished 2023 with just three fewer broken tackles despite 106 fewer attempts than Harris and matched him with 24 rushes of 10+ yards."
At best, the duo are unreliable RB2s whose production in a given week will depend largely on game script. At worst, Smith will throw last year's split on its head and one of these backs will be relegated to a backup role.
And if that's the case, some fantasy managers are going to be left holding the bag.
Seattle Seahawks
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Based on their respective average draft positions, it appears most fantasy managers don't anticipate any nightmares in the Seattle backfield—Kenneth Walker III is being drafted in Round 4 on average, while Zach Charbonnet has fallen into the double-digit rounds.
Walker topped 1,100 yards in each of his first two seasons, and Dave Richard of CBS Sports believes that Walker's third year could bring a true breakout.
"New play-caller Ryan Grubb has become fond of Walker and even called him a "three-tool guy," suggesting he can be useful on any play as a runner (duh), receiver (ooh) and pass blocker," Richard said. "That's wonderful since it seems apparent that Walker will be asked to run more routes and run outside of the tackles more than he used to."
However, as Kyle Lindemann wrote at FanDuel, those managers investing in Walker may be setting themselves up for some sleepless nights down the road.
"What if I told you that Charbonnet has nearly identical draft capital to Walker," he said, "played 48% of the offensive snaps as a rookie, and had a better success rate as a runner and receiver? Seattle has a new head coach in Mike Macdonald and a new offensive coordinator in Ryan Grubb. The plan is for the Seahawks offense to be more up-tempo this season and pass more, which could lead to a more favorable situation for Charbonnet in fantasy. At this point, Charbonnet seems like the better value given that he is going a full six-plus rounds later in fantasy drafts than Walker."
Part of Charbonnet's snap share last year can be attributed to injury—Walker has missed time in both pro seasons and has been limited in a number of games he did play in. With a capable No. 2 back on the roster in Charbonnet (who averaged more yards per carry than Walker in 2023), it's entirely possible that we'll see more of a committee attack in Seattle than some expect.
Carolina Panthers
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Given the season the Panthers just had, it's fair to wonder why fantasy managers would want any part of the Carolina backfield. But any starting running back who sees a decent workload has fantasy value.
The problem is trying to figure out who that starter will be.
In the long term, the franchise is hopeful that player will be Jonathon Brooks, the talented rookie out of Texas. But Brooks is rehabbing an ACL tear, and Panthers head coach Dave Canales acknowledged to reporters that Carolina isn't entirely sure when Brooks will see the field.
"This is a guy with a long career in front of him, somebody we think really high about, so we want to be really smart with him,'' Canales said. "It's something we expected. Coming into the spring, we knew just the timeline and progression of where he was at. We knew we would not have him for the preseason."
That appeared to open the door for Chuba Hubbard to be the team's No. 1 back—at least to start the season. But Hubbard went down recently with a knee injury of his own, although Canales indicated during a press conference after that Hubbard appears to have avoided major injury.
"Chuba went down — we had big concerns there," Canales said. "The initial testing looks pretty good, so they're going to follow up. We'll have more information on him there."
So now Hubbard is iffy for Week 1. Brooks all but certainly won't be ready by then. That would leave Miles Sanders as the probable starter in the season opener—the same Miles Sanders who was absolutely awful in his first year with the team a year ago, averaging a dismal 3.3 yards per carry.
This backfield is already a nightmare—and we haven't even made it through the preseason yet.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.
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