Young NBA Players Best Positioned to Break Out In 2024-25
Some NBA breakouts are easier to see coming than others. Tyrese Maxey was last season's Most Improved Player, an award that seemed likely from the moment the Philadelphia 76ers' relationship with James Harden crumbled. In contrast, second-place finisher Coby White came out of nowhere.
As we look ahead to 2024-25, we'll try to isolate the next crop of young players looking to follow in Maxey's and White's footsteps.
Talent and past production are key factors in our guesses, but opportunity is also critical. Many of the guys we'll feature are in specific situations that should allow them to thrive.
From the obvious hits (did you really think we'd write up potential breakouts without including Victor Wembanyama?) to the deeper cuts, all of these candidates are positioned to level up.
Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors
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The Golden State Warriors aren't just hoping Jonathan Kuminga's age-22 season brings the superstar leap his tools suggest is possible. They need this guy to break out.
Stephen Curry is entering his 16th NBA season poised to carry one of the heaviest burdens of his career. His Warriors lack anything close to a load-lightening second star unless Kuminga, he of the big-wing frame and A-plus fast-twitch eruptions, rises to assume that mantle. Klay Thompson is gone, an aging Draymond Green has never been a high-usage offensive piece and no one should feel confident in knowing which version of Andrew Wiggins will show up in 2024-25.
Second-year guard Brandin Podziemski has a high floor but a ceiling that settles somewhere below stardom, which leaves the extension-eligible Kuminga as the Dubs' lone (potential) rising star.
We've seen the dunk-ridden highlights and "blink and you missed it" burst, but Kuminga must prove he can threaten defenses as a shooter (career 34.1 percent from deep on low volume) and master the finer points of team defense. A little more rebounding wouldn't hurt either, particularly considering his ability to get off the floor more quickly than the other nine players on the court.
Development will be necessary, but it's hard to bet against someone with Kuminga's obvious natural gifts. Plus, the numbers suggest he could post elite production if given the opportunity.
Last year, a 21-year-old Kuminga appeared in 74 games and managed 21.9 points, 6.6 rebounds and 3.0 assists per 36 minutes while shooting 52.9 percent from the field. No one else in NBA history has ever posted those per-36 averages across a sample that large at such a young age.
If Golden State is to have any chance of challenging for a top-four seed in the West, Kuminga needs an explosive season. Consider this a bet that he has one in him.
Trey Murphy III, New Orleans Pelicans
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In good news for the New Orleans Pelicans, Trey Murphy III's breakout might have already started.
Though New Orleans wouldn't complain if Murphy's fourth season featured numbers in line with his third (14.8 points, 4.9 rebounds, 2.2 assists and a 38.0 percent clip from long range on 7.0 attempts per game), there's reason to believe those figures will represent his floor going forward.
After March 1 last season, Murphy averaged 18.0 points, 6.3 rebounds and 2.7 assists on a 46.8/41.7/84.8 shooting split.
Brandon Ingram's continued presence in New Orleans could be a roadblock. He has the previous All-Star nod and young-veteran clout to siphon minutes away from Murphy, even if it's been obvious for some time that the latter's movement shooting and downhill force are better complements to Zion Williamson than the former's deliberate mid-range approach.
Plus, signs suggest Murphy can be much more than an off-ball threat.
Murphy's average of 1.35 points per play as a pick-and-roll ball-handler ranked in the 99th percentile last season. His usage frequency on such plays was only 5.7 percent, up from 3.0 percent the year before (when he averaged a stellar 1.32 points per play). With Zion around, nobody else figures to be a pick-and-roll spammer. But Murphy showed the capacity for real production in that role and should get more opportunities going forward.
Deep range and a quick trigger also make Murphy a dangerous screener who commands attention as a lethal pick-and-pop threat.
If the Pels eventually find a way to move Ingram, Murphy's runway will be unobstructed. There aren't many players in the league with a better idea of what to do when cleared for takeoff.
Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
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Whatever your expectations are, elevate them.
Victor Wembanyama is the first of his kind, an unprecedented combination of size and skill who renders previous comps inadequate. He was the first rookie in history to average at least 21.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 3.0 blocks, and the arrow is sharply angling up from there.
These are groundbreaking numbers, reflective of a generational talent, and they'd probably be enough to argue Wemby is poised to explode on their own. But context matters, too, and Wembanyama now finds himself toting a full year of experience and surrounded by a few key teammates who'll fast track his journey to perennial MVP contention.
You've seen some version of the stat by now—the equation that basically works out to "Wemby + Decent Point Guard = Dominance." Whenever the reigning Rookie of the Year shared the floor with the Spurs' best point guard, Tre Jones, who put up a meager 10.0 points and 6.2 assists, San Antonio outscored the opposition by 5.2 points per 100 possessions, a mark that would have ranked fifth in the league overall and a mile ahead of San Antonio's overall minus-6.3.
How's that going to look with Chris Paul in Jones' place? While Wemby is also flanked by veteran Harrison Barnes and a developing Devin Vassell, who might warrant breakout consideration in his own right? While spending the full season as a center instead of messing around at power forward next to Zach Collins for several months, as was the case last year?
Wemby is poised to collect maximum hardware. We're talking MVP consideration, likely All-NBA status and a Defensive Player of the Year award.
Josh Giddey, Chicago Bulls
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Maybe this is more of a fantasy basketball angle than anything else, but Josh Giddey is positioned to put up staggering numbers with the Chicago Bulls.
Despite ranking third on the 2023-24 Oklahoma City Thunder by possessing the ball for just 2.8 minutes per game, Giddey averaged 12.3 points, 6.4 rebounds and 4.8 assists. Those numbers were actually career lows in all three categories, but they still distinguished the Aussie as an uncommon stat-stuffer in his age-21 season.
Only two other "guards" matched or beat those averages last year: Luka Dončić and Scottie Barnes.
Whether they're right to think so or not, the Bulls clearly view Giddey as a foundational piece. He was the sole return in the trade that sent Alex Caruso to OKC, and DeMar DeRozan is no longer around to sop up touches. Assuming Zach LaVine eventually follows DeRozan out the door (or succumbs to another injury that removes him from the rotation), Giddey may only have Coby White to compete with for control of the offense.
That's a little different than vying for a share of the action with MVP runner-up Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren.
The 6'8" guard will turn 22 a couple of weeks before a true prove-it season starts. Considering his elevation in the pecking order, natural growth trajectory and opportunity to pile up stats as a primary facilitator, Giddey's per-36 averages from last year—17.7 points, 9.2 rebounds and 7.2 assists—might best be viewed as his floor for next season.
Get ready for Giddey, who's logged 11 triple-doubles in his three seasons, to nearly double that number in 2024-25.
Jabari Smith Jr., Houston Rockets
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The Houston Rockets have a handful of potential breakout picks, with Amen Thompson, rookie Reed Sheppard, Jalen Green and even Alperen Sengün (who was great in 2023-24 but didn't make the All-Star team and still has upside).
Even amid that crowded class, Jabari Smith Jr. stands out as the young Rocket best situated to take a step forward.
Much of that owes to Smith's developing outside shot. That skill was a major part of a prospect profile that got the 6'11" forward drafted at No. 3 overall in 2022, and it matured in encouraging ways last season. After hitting just 30.7 percent of his 4.9 three-point attempts as a rookie, Smith drilled 36.3 percent of his 5.0 tries last year. As his jumper fell, Smith gained confidence, took more attempts off the dribble and became a consistent impact player down the stretch.
Smith scored in double figures in 20 of his final 25 games, and Houston won 14 of the 22 contests in which he canned at least three triples.
An excellent rebounder whose length and competitiveness already make him an ideal defensive counterpart for Sengün, Smith's spacing is also going to be vital to all of Houston's best lineups. In other words, while so many of the Rockets' other pieces try to climb over each other for minutes and shares of the offense, Smith looks to be indispensable in every configuration.
His potential to handle longer stretches as a defensive anchor at center might even force Houston to consider moving the extension-eligible Sengün ahead of 2025 restricted free agency.
He's going to play a ton, make differences on both ends in ways none of his teammates can and should settle into the "Chris Bosh on the Miami Heat" role that'll earn him All-Star consideration as soon as this upcoming season.
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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