2024 Fantasy Football Draft Strategy Based on 8 Lessons Learned from 2023 Season
Life is all about learning lessons. Growing from experience and mistakes. While things would be a lot easier were this not so, we learn more from our losses than our wins.
Fantasy football is no different. Winning a championship can be a fantastic feeling, and there are certainly takeaways to be had from navigating the perils and pitfalls of a fantasy season and emerging victorious.
But sometimes, the most important lessons to be learned are those after gaffes. The running back whom you didn't start in Week 9. The trade that turned out to be a disaster. Or the errors made on draft day that come back to haunt you all season long.
Now, not every strategy included here was borne of something this analyst did wrong. It was a rough year (by my standards), but it wasn't that bad. Some are things I did right. Have for years. Will continue to, because they work year in and year out.
But all eight of these tips were borne from playing fantasy football in 2023—for better or worse.
And all can help you enjoy a successful draft in 2024.
Be Patient at Quarterback
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Frankly, many of the lessons from the 2023 fantasy football seasons have been learned over the course of many years. Times change in fantasy, but it usually doesn't happen on a dime.
This first one certainly qualifies.
In every fantasy draft, some manager is bound to take a quarterback in the early rounds. Last year, Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes had an ADP of 14.5 in PPR formats, per FantasyPros.
This analyst has discussed ad nauseam why drafting any quarterback that early is a bad idea. The perceived edge you gain under center isn't worth the deficiency it leaves at running back or wide receiver. Besides, the first quarterback drafted rarely finishes first among quarterbacks in scoring. Mahomes was eighth in 2023, more than 100 points behind Josh Allen of the Buffalo Bills.
Meanwhile, drafters who took Dak Prescott of the Dallas Cowboys in Round 7 or 8 got the player who finished third at the position in points. Jordan Love of the Green Bay Packers and Brock Purdy of the San Francisco 49ers, who finished fifth and sixth among quarterbacks, respectively, didn't come off the board until the double-digit rounds.
Quarterback is easily the deepest position in fantasy. Take advantage of that depth and exercise patience at the position on draft day.
DRAFT TARGETS
Dak Prescott, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: QB8): Prescott was third in passing yards last year, led the NFL in touchdown passes and plays for a Cowboys team that could feature one of the league's most pass-heavy offenses in 2024.
Jayden Daniels, Washington Commanders (ADP: QB12): Fantasy managers love dual-threat quarterbacks, as evidenced by the QB6 ADP of Indianapolis Colts signal-caller Anthony Richardson. Daniels offers considerable rushing upside available at a sizable discount.
If You're Going the 'Hero RB' Route, Don't Whiff on Your Hero
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For those who aren't familiar with the term, the "Hero RB" (or "Anchor RB") draft strategy is a variation on "Zero RB." Rather than ignoring the running back position altogether in the early rounds, fantasy managers spend one of their first two picks on a running back and then wait a while before selecting a second starter.
It's a viable draft strategy. They all are, whether it's "Hero RB," "Zero RB," "Robust RB," or the myriad other ones that don't have catchy nicknames. Any strategy can make you look like a genius if you draft the right players.
But as managers who selected Tony Pollard of the Dallas Cowboys, Josh Jacobs of the Las Vegas Raiders or especially Nick Chubb of the Cleveland Browns in the first two rounds last year can tell you, a fantasy team can run into trouble if that "Hero" back doesn't meet expectations (or at least come close).
The wide receivers on such a team won't be quite as strong as folks who go full "Zero RB." That's especially true if managers choose to pursue a higher-end quarterback or tight end. The whole point of "Hero RB" is that having one star running back gives a team an edge at that spot.
There's no margin for error. You need Thor. Not Ant-Man.
DRAFT TARGETS
Jonathan Taylor, Indianapolis (ADP: RB5): Taylor hasn't been able to recapture his RB1 season from 2021 over the past two years, but he's only 25 years old and is regularly falling near the Round 1/Round 2 turn.
Derrick Henry, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: RB9): Yes, Henry is 30. But he surpassed 1,300 total yards and scored 12 times last year and now joins an offense that appears a prefect fit for his downhill running style. He's the Round 2/Round 3 turn back to target.
Wide Receivers Aren't Really Safer (in the Early Rounds)
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In fantasy leagues that award a point for each reception, wide receivers as a whole score more points than running backs. But that isn't the only reason why wide receivers have surpassed running backs early in drafts.
In the B/R Mock That Isn't, 15 of the first 24 selections were wideouts. They're perceived to be safer picks because they're supposedly less prone to injury and disappointing seasons.
That perception isn't exactly reality.
The truth is, bust rates for running backs and wide receivers have long been about the same in the first few rounds. It's when you hit Rounds 3 and 4 that the two start to really diverge, before evening out again in the later rounds.
Look at the first few rounds from 2023. Sure, there were running back busts, but the wide receivers had some massive misses as well. Justin Jefferson, who was the second overall pick on average, missed seven games and was WR33 in PPR points. While Puka Nacua of the Los Angeles Rams was rewriting the NFL's rookie record books, Cooper Kupp was limping through a WR40 campaign.
This isn't to say that a wide receiver shouldn't be your first pick. But the old-school notion of taking running backs with your first two selections isn't a bad idea, either.
It all depends on who falls to you. Be flexible.
DRAFT TARGETS
Justin Jefferson, Minnesota Vikings (ADP: WR3): Jefferson's ADP is actually pretty fluid—he has slid into the back half of Round 1 with some regularity this year. If that happens in your draft, forget last year's hamstring injury, forget the QB issues in Minnesota and believe in his otherworldly talent.
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: WR12): Like the Vikings, the Raiders have issues at quarterback. But Adams was targeted more than any wide receiver in the AFC last year and finished 10th in PPR points in a situation that may well have been worse.
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The 'RB Dead Zone' May Not Be So Dead After All
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The "RB Dead Zone" refers to the area in drafts where bust rates between wideouts and running backs have historically diverged the most.
"The idea of the running back dead zone stems from the pretty simple concept that RB scoring is relatively flat from Rounds 3 or 4 through the end of the single-digit rounds, while WR scoring remains high through the first five or six rounds before falling off dramatically," Jack Miller of Establish the Run wrote. "... The gap between RB and WR was much smaller in Rounds 7-10, indicating that was the time to load up on runners after leaning hard into WRs in the dead zone. Player win rate data backed this up too, as RBs in Rounds 3-6 consistently had poor win rates, while those in Rounds 7-10 were generally above expectation. The opposite was true at WR."
The thing is, as more drafters go "Zero RB" or "Hero RB" and avoid "Dead Zone" backs, the Dead Zone has shifted. This year, the 10th running back might not get drafted until Round 3.
More than a few backs also broke out from the "Dead Zone" last year, including Rachaad White of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, James Cook of the Buffalo Bills or Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints.
If you're on the clock in Round 6 and a running back is your highest-ranked player, take him. Leave the Dead Zone to Christopher Walken and Martin Sheen.
DRAFT TARGETS
Rachaad White, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: RB14): Is White an elite talent? Nope. He averaged only 3.6 yards per carry last year. But he was also tied with Christian McCaffrey of the San Francisco 49ers for the second-most carries in the league.
Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: RB23): When he was afforded the opportunities last season, White flashed some genuine upside. The only thing standing between him and a featured-back role in Vegas is Alexander "Three Yards and a Cloud of Meh" Mattison.
Don't Sleep on the Denny's Discount Set at WR
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This is another lesson that isn't new: Ageism is very much a thing in fantasy football. Fantasy managers love shiny new toys and can't wait to shove veteran players out the door.
Arizona Cardinals rookie Marvin Harrison Jr. is being drafted as a top-10 wide receiver more often than not in 2024. While he's all but certainly going to be a great player, his next catch in an NFL game that counts will be his first.
Meanwhile, Mike Evans of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers is riding a streak of 10 straight 1,000-yard seasons. Stefon Diggs is on a new team in the Houston Texans, but he has surpassed 1,000 yards in each of the last six years and topped 100 catches five times. Cooper Kupp of the Los Angeles Rams was a disappointment in 2023, but he won the NFL's "triple crown" (most catches, receiving yards and receiving scores) and had over 90 more PPR points than any other wideout in 2021.
With aging players, there's always a risk that Father Time has finally caught up with them and the bottom will fall out. But of that trio, Evans is the only wide receiver with an ADP inside the top 20 at his position. Diggs and Kupp are regularly falling into WR3 territory.
All three have top-12 fantasy upside. And with wideouts flying off the board so quickly this year, that sort of potential value can open teams up to attacking other positions—and building a more well-rounded roster.
DRAFT TARGETS
Mike Evans, Tampa Bay Buccaneers (ADP: WR14): Evans didn't just top 1,000 yards for the 10th straight season in 2023. He also caught 13 touchdowns and was seventh in PPR points among wideouts.
Brandin Cooks, Dallas Cowboys (ADP: WR61): Cooks is a complete afterthought in most drafts. But he has also topped 1,000 receiving yards a half-dozen times and caught eight touchdowns in his first year in Dallas in 2023.
The Tight End Position Is Wide-Open in 2024
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For many years, fantasy managers had two options at tight end You could either pay up for Travis Kelce of the Kansas City Chiefs—and by pay up, I mean quite possibly a Round 1 pick—or you could take someone else.
There was a reason for the ADP chasm between Kelce and every other tight end. As recently as 2022, Kelce outscored the runner-up at tight end by six fantasy points per game. That gave Kelce managers a huge edge over every other team in their leagues.
But a funny thing happened on the way to Kelcezilla stomping all over fantasy football in 2023. The 34-year-old missed two games and failed to hit the 1,000-yard mark for the first time since 2015. Kelce caught only five touchdown passes and finished third at the position in PPR points behind Detroit Lions rookie Sam LaPorta and Evan Engram of the Jacksonville Jaguars.
That "down" year—granted, Kelce was still the top tight end in fantasy points per game—has created confusion that we haven't seen at tight end in a while. There isn't a consensus No. 1 at the position this year.
The takeaway from all of this? Let LaPorta get drafted. And Kelce. The sweet spot at tight end in 2024 is in the TE4-8 range—players who could challenge for the No. 1 spot but are available multiple rounds after the first few are selected.
DRAFT TARGETS
Mark Andrews, Baltimore Ravens (ADP: TE3): Durability is a legitimate concern for Andrews, who has missed nine games over the past two seasons. But Andrews was tied for fourth in fantasy points per game at the position in 2023 and was tied third the year before.
Evan Engram, Jacksonville Jaguars (ADP: TE9): All Engram did last year was lead all tight ends in targets and catches and finish third in receiving yards at the position on the way to a TE2 fantasy campaign. Why would you want that guy on your roster?
Streaming Defenses Is the Only Way to Fly
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One year ago, the San Francisco 49ers were the first defense selected, coming off the board about halfway through Round 9. They have plenty of defensive talent on all three levels, which played a key part in getting them to Super Bowl LVIII.
However, the 49ers defense also recovered the third-fewest fumbles in the league last year and finished 10th in fantasy points. That isn't an aberration. The No. 1 defense in fantasy drafts and the No. 1 defense at season's end are almost never the same.
There are just too many things we don't know at this point, both about those defenses and the teams they face. Never mind that "elite" defenses like the Niners and Baltimore Ravens will also play first-place schedules—the latter in the buzzsaw that is the AFC North.
Miami Dolphins running back De'Von Achane had a lower ADP than the 49ers defense last year. So did backfield batterymate Raheem Mostert, who led the NFL in rushing touchdowns. The same goes for Detroit Lions tight end Sam LaPorta.
Were those players a tad more valuable than a mediocre fantasy defense?
Wait until late in the draft. Find a team that has what appears to be a favorable Week 1 matchup (i.e., whoever is playing the New England Patriots). If their Week 2 matchup isn't as appealing, it's off to the waiver wire to find a team that has a better one.
Live the stream. Any other course of action is wasting picks.
DRAFT TARGETS
New Orleans Saints (ADP: DST13): Last year, the Carolina Panthers were dead last in the NFL in total offense and last in the NFC in scoring offense. That bodes well for the New Orleans defense at the Superdome in Week 1.
Cincinnati Bengals (ADP: DST15): Remember what I said about targeting whoever is playing the dumpster fire of an offense that the Patriots will likely be? Well, guess who hosts New England in Week 1 at Paul Brown Stadium?
Never Draft a Kicker Before the Last Round
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Baltimore Ravens kicker Justin Tucker owns the record for the longest field goal in NFL history and likely will be enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame one day. But drafting any kicker—even one as good as Tucker—in the middle rounds is a great way to screw up a draft.
De'Von Achane, Raheem Mostert and Sam LaPorta all came off the board after Tucker last season in most leagues. So did Buffalo Bills tight end Dalton Kincaid, Houston Texans wide receiver Nico Collins and Green Bay Packers quarterback Jordan Love.
That's where you should be allocating draft capital in the middle rounds. Young upside plays. Depth. A starting quarterback or tight end if you prefer to wait at those positions. All of those players played significant roles in winning fantasy championships.
Tucker wasn't even the highest-scoring fantasy kicker last year. That honor went to Brandon Aubrey of the Dallas Cowboys.
There's no reason to take a kicker before your last pick in the draft. There's no advantage to be had. The top kicker in 2023 in fantasy points per game (Aubrey) had two more points per game than the No. 12 kicker (Jason Sanders of the Miami Dolphins).
Passing on a potential league-winner like Mostert, who was RB5 in PPR points in 2023, is the fastest way to cost yourself championship equity.
DRAFT TARGETS
Jason Myers, Seattle Seahawks (ADP: K14): Two years ago, Myers hit on almost 92 percent of his field goals and was fantasy's No. 4 kicker. Last year, he was second in the league in field goal makes and was tied for third in fantasy points.
Matt Gay, Indianapolis Colts (ADP: K19): Gay hit only 80.5 percent of his field-goal tries during his first year in Indy. But that didn't stop him from finishing fifth among kickers in fantasy points.
Gary Davenport is a two-time Fantasy Sports Writers Association Football Writer of the Year. Follow him on X at @IDPSharks.
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