Fantasy Football 2024: Breaking Down Mock Draft, Bold Picks and Strategy
The 2024 NFL season, like all the others before it, will inevitably spawn surprise stars and breakout performers.
That's what makes risk-taking a must for fantasy football managers.
There is a limit, of course, on how much risk one can comfortably assume, but avoiding risk altogether ups the difficulty of finding draft values. Some of the boom-or-bust players will wind up booming, and you'll want in on that action.
To dig a big deeper into the risk factor, we'll run through a simulated mock draft using FantasyPros' mock draft simulator and then spotlight the boldest selection in each of the three rounds. Finally, we'll close by laying out a couple of mock draft strategies to help maximize the utility of that pre-draft tool.
Simulated 3-Round Mock Draft
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Round 1
1. Christian McCaffrey, RB, SF
2. CeeDee Lamb, WR, DAL
3. Tyreek Hill, WR, MIA
4. Breece Hall, RB, NYJ
5. Justin Jefferson, WR, MIN
6. Ja'Marr Chase, WR, CIN
7. Bijan Robinson, RB, ATL
8. Amon-Ra St. Brown, WR, DET
9. Jonathan Taylor, RB, IND
10. A.J. Brown, WR, PHI
11. Saquon Barkley, RB, PHI
12. Puka Nacua, WR, LAR
Round 2
13. Garrett Wilson, WR, NYJ
14. Jahmyr Gibbs, RB, DET
15. Kyren Williams, RB, LAR
16. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, ARI
17. Davante Adams, WR, LV
18. Travis Etienne Jr., RB, JAX
19. D.J. Moore, WR, CHI
20. Drake London, WR, ATL
21. De'Von Achane, RB, MIA
22. Brandon Aiyuk, WR, SF
23. Derrick Henry, RB, BAL
24. Rachaad White, RB, TB
Round 3
25. Josh Allen, QB, BUF
26. Chris Olave, WR, NO
27. Isiah Pacheco, RB, KC
28. Cooper Kupp, WR, LAR
29. Sam LaPorta, TE, DET
30. Deebo Samuel Sr., WR, SF
31. Josh Jacobs, RB, GB
32. James Cook, RB, BUF
33. Jaylen Waddle, WR, MIA
34. Mike Evans, WR, TB
35. Travis Kelce, TE, KC
36. Lamar Jackson, QB, BAL
Bold Picks
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First round: Puka Nacua at No. 12
Nacua broke out in league-winning fashion as a fifth-round rookie this past season. The volume of his season-long stats (top 10 in catches and receiving yards) masked over some week-to-week volatility, though. He finished five different contests with 50 or fewer receiving yards.
Spending a first-round pick on him is wagering that there won't be as many peaks and valleys this time around. It's also assuming that adding a healthy Cooper Kupp to this attack won't eat into Nacua's volume.
Second round: Marvin Harrison Jr. at No. 16
Harrison, this year's No. 4 pick, is a mega-prospect in real life. The 6'4", 205-pounder aces the eye test. He also has the eye-popping production to boot, as his final two seasons at Ohio State each yielded 1,200-plus receiving yards and exactly 14 touchdown grabs.
All of that said, he's still a rookie. He's also joining an Arizona Cardinals offense that posted bottom-10 rankings last season in passing attempts (555, 24th) and passing yards (3,144, 26th). Maybe he is talented enough to change that on his own, but expecting instant stardom is asking a lot of anyone.
Third round: Sam LaPorta at No. 29
Part of the reason people are willing to buy into talented rookies like Harrison is that some, like LaPorta, are able to fast-track themselves to the elite ranks. The No. 34 pick in last year's draft, LaPorta wound up leading all tight ends in fantasy production, per ESPN.
So, why is it still considered bold to make him the top tight end selected in this draft? A couple of things. For starters, the only real advantage he had on his position peers was an elevated touchdown count (10, no one else topped six). As far as general volume goes, he was only fifth in both targets (120) and receiving yards (889). Plus, the Detroit Lions have playmakers all over their roster, so it's possible some of LaPorta's production winds up going elsewhere.
Mock Strategies
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Open different mocks with different combinations.
Every mock draft should teach you something. Carrying a specific strategy into the selection process ensures that it will.
Try different early-round plans to get a feel for how the final product looks. String together consecutive running back picks at the top in one, then select three consecutive receivers in another. See what happens when you take the first quarterback or tight end off the board. Depending on how your mocks take shape, you might wind up with a new idea to take into your actual talent grab.
Don't stray too far from ADP values and player rankings.
Mock drafts invite themselves to experimentation. It's one of the reasons they're so useful.
However, they are only useful so long as they are realistic. In other words, don't get too carried away that you're making picks no one would in real life. There's no use finding out how people would react to something that is never going to happen.
Run through as many mocks as you can.
When scanning through fantasy football advice, you'll almost always come across a line cautioning how every draft room is different. That's because they are. Specific league settings shape some of the differences, but personal preferences play a part in that, too.
That's why you should try running through as many mocks as possible. One will give you a brief snapshot into how a particular draft room felt at that particular moment. What you really want to spot are trends that repeat over multiple mocks. Expand the sample size, and you'll wind up with more reliable results.
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