Braves' Complete Guide, Preview for 2nd Half of 2024 MLB Season
The Atlanta Braves are working on a run of six straight NL East division titles, but they have advanced to the World Series just once during that stretch when they won it all in 2021, and after a 104-win season last year they were ousted in the NLDS.
This year's team has been forced to navigate injuries to ace Spencer Strider and 2023 NL MVP Ronald Acuña Jr., and they sat 7.5 games behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the division standings entering play on Wednesday.
Despite that deficit, they are still comfortably in the top NL wild-card spot, but reinforcements will likely be needed if they hope to make a deep playoff run.
Ahead, we've provided a preview for the second half of the season, complete with potential X-factors, a trade deadline outlook and a blueprint for this Braves team to reach the postseason.
Second-Half X-Factors
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OF Adam Duvall
With a .191 average and 67 OPS+ in 242 plate appearances, Duvall is off to a slow start serving as the in-house replacement for Ronald Acuña Jr. in the outfield.
However, he is hitting .323/.364/.613 with two doubles and five RBI over eight games in July, and he has proven to be capable of catching fire at the plate throughout his career. It's not long ago that he was a 38-homer, 113-RBI player in 2021 when he split the season between Miami and Atlanta.
RHP Spencer Schwellenbach
Schwellenbach has been the best of the bunch in a revolving door at the back of the starting rotation, posting a 5.02 ERA that is backed by a far more encouraging 3.57 FIP in 37.2 innings over seven starts.
The 24-year-old has twirled three quality starts and completed at least five innings in six of his seven outings, and bringing some stability to the No. 5 starter role could go a long way in shoring up the pitching staff.
CF Michael Harris II
Harris has been sidelined since June 14 with a strained hamstring, and he was hitting just .253/.295/.358 for an 83 OPS+ in 278 plate appearances prior to the injury, falling well short of the impact he has made during his first two seasons in the majors.
After winning 2022 NL Rookie of the Year honors, he was once again a dynamic power-speed threat in center field last year. Even with his slow start this year, he was a 1.0-WAR player in 67 games, and having him back in the lineup will bolster the entire outfield.
Trade Deadline Outlook
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Not surprisingly, an upgrade in the outfield is a top priority for the Braves.
"President of baseball operations Alex Anthopoulos already is exploring the market for outfielders, engaging in preliminary discussions with clubs, according to sources briefed on his conversations," wrote Ken Rosenthal of The Athletic.
Given their proximity to the luxury tax threshold and the fact that the need is more short-term than long-term, a veteran rental bat like Tommy Pham (CWS) or Kevin Pillar (LAA) might be the best potential target.
Adding a veteran arm to provide more depth at the back of the starting rotation is also an obvious potential move, and even with the performance of Spencer Schwellenbach, finding a way to keep their rotation healthy and limit workload would be beneficial.
The Braves have done a nice job adding on the fringe of the roster at the deadline in recent years, so keep an eye on under-the-radar moves.
The Braves Make the Postseason If...
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Despite sitting behind the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East standings, the Braves still have a 95.4 percent chance of reaching the postseason, according to the latest odds from FanGraphs.
The offseason additions of Chris Sale and Reynaldo López have completely reshaped the starting rotation, and they need to keep performing at a high level in order for the pitching staff to remain a strength.
Offensively, there is plenty of room for in-house improvements even with Ronald Acuña Jr. sidelined. Matt Olson, Austin Riley, Ozzie Albies and Sean Murphy have all performed short of their 2023 level, while Michael Harris II has been a complete non-factor for much of the year.
Even if they don't make a splash at the deadline, there is enough talent on this roster for them to make it seven straight playoff appearances, even if they can't chase down the Philadelphia Phillies in the NL East race.
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