Red Sox's Complete Guide, Preview for 2nd Half of 2024 MLB Season
After losing 84 games and finishing in the AL East cellar in 2023, the Boston Red Sox have exceeded expectations during the first half this season, and they entered play on Wednesday with a two-game cushion over the Kansas City Royals for the third AL wild-card spot.
Breakout performances from right-hander Tanner Houck and outfielder Jarren Duran have given the roster a major boost, especially in the wake of several injuries that have left the roster with multiple holes.
Middle infield depth, another quality starting pitcher and multiple bullpen arms to bridge the gap to closer Kenley Jansen could all be on the deadline shopping list if they decide to be buyers.
Ahead, we've provided a preview for the second half of the season, complete with potential X-factors, a trade deadline outlook and a blueprint for this Red Sox team to reach the postseason.
Second-Half X-Factors
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1B Triston Casas
After hitting .317/.417/.617 with 15 home runs in 54 games during the second half last season, Casas was a popular breakout pick heading into the 2024 season and a potential budding star in the middle of the Boston lineup.
He had a 133 OPS+ with six home runs and 10 RBI through 22 games when he suffered a fractured rib that has kept him sidelined since April 20, and his return has already taken longer than expected. What type of impact will he make in the second half this year?
RHP Brayan Bello
The Red Sox signed Bello to a six-year, $55 million extension in March following a breakout 2023 season where he went 12-11 with a 4.24 ERA and 132 strikeouts in 157 innings while flashing frontline potential and racking up 3.2 WAR in 28 starts.
He went 4-1 with a 3.13 ERA through his first six starts, but in 10 starts since that solid start he has a 6.79 ERA, 1.74 WHIP and .315 opponents' batting average in 51.2 innings while recording just three quality starts.
2B Nick Yorke
The No. 17 overall pick in the 2020 draft, Yorke could end up being the second baseman of the future for the Red Sox, and that future could come as soon as the second half of the 2024 season.
The 22-year-old is hitting .330/.425/.505 with six doubles, four home runs and 15 RBI in 26 games since he was promoted to Triple-A on June 5, and he has put up strong offensive numbers every step of the way in the minors.
Trade Deadline Outlook
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Chief baseball officer Craig Breslow has thus far only said that he is committed to "picking a lane" at the trade deadline.
"The lane that we pick is going to be dictated by a host of considerations and none more meaningful than what is happening on the field. So I'm still adamant and committed to picking a lane. We're going to get more and more information over the next couple of weeks. But the one thing that we can do that helps steer that direction is to win as many games as possible on the field," said on MassLive's Fenway Rundown podcast (via Chris Cotillo).
If they decide to buy, another right-handed bat, a depth piece for the starting rotation and one or more bullpen arms could all be on the shopping list.
If they sell, outfielder Tyler O'Neill, starter Nick Pivetta and closer Kenley Jansen will all be free agents this coming offseason, and all three could be in-demand trade chips if they are made available.
The Red Sox Make the Postseason If...
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First things first, the starting rotation will need to continue to be a strength if the Red Sox are going to claim a postseason spot.
Led by breakout ace Tanner Houck, the starting staff ranks seventh in the majors with a 3.66 ERA, which is a drastic improvement over the 4.68 ERA they logged a year ago that put them 22nd in the league.
Getting Triston Casas back healthy and productive in the middle of the lineup will also be a major X-factor.
They have gone just 21-23 at Fenway Park this year, compared to 29-17 on the road, so playing better in front of the home fans will also be a key to hanging around in the wild-card race.
FanGraphs currently gives them a 49.4 percent chance to reach the postseason, so some things will need to break right in the second half, but the potential is there for this to be a wild-card team in October.
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