Dodgers' Complete Guide, Preview for 2nd Half of 2024 MLB Season
The 2024 Los Angeles Dodgers have not been the same runaway freight train we've seen in recent years as they reached 100 wins five times in the last seven years, but they are still perched atop the NL West standings.
From a revolving door of sorts between the starting rotation and the injured list, along with the fractured hand suffered by superstar Mookie Betts, they have rarely been close to full strength this year, which speaks to the overall depth of their roster.
That said, with so much talent and so much money tied up in this roster, they will almost certainly be buyers at the trade deadline, though luxury tax implications will be a looming factor in any added payroll.
Ahead, we've provided a preview for the second half of the season, complete with potential X-factors, a trade deadline outlook and a blueprint for this Dodgers team to reach the postseason.
Second-Half X-Factors
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LHP Clayton Kershaw
Kershaw has yet to make his 2024 debut after undergoing shoulder surgery in November, but he is on the recovery trail.
The future Hall of Famer threw two innings in a simulated game on Sunday, and he is expected to make his first rehab start this coming Saturday. He previously pitched three innings in a rehab start at Single-A on June 19, but was shut down after experiencing some lingering soreness. How much of an impact will he ultimately have on the 2024 season?
SS Mookie Betts
Veteran Miguel Rojas has done a fine job filling in for Betts at shortstop since he hit the injured list with a fractured hand, but there is no replacing one of the best players on the planet.
Prior to his injury, Betts had racked up 3.9 WAR in 72 games while making a smooth transition to being a full-time shortstop. There can sometimes be lingering effects of a hand or wrist injury, with players struggling to regain their power stroke even when they return to action, so Betts needs to prove he can still produce at an MVP-caliber level even after he is cleared to return.
RHP Bobby Miller
After going 11-4 with a 3.76 ERA, 1.10 WHIP and 119 strikeouts in 124.1 innings over 22 starts as a rookie, Miller was a popular pick to break out as the next ace-caliber starting pitcher to emerge from the Dodgers farm system.
Instead, his follow-up season has been beset by injuries, and when he has managed to take the mound he has struggled to an 8.07 ERA in 29 innings. He was shelled for 10 hits and nine earned runs in four innings against the Philadelphia Phillies last time out, and the Dodgers rotation will look significantly different if he can return to his 2023 form.
Trade Deadline Outlook
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With so many pitchers currently on the injured list, what the Dodgers decide to do to upgrade their staff will likely depend on how things progress with various rehab assignments and return timelines in the coming weeks.
They could potentially add a veteran arm to the starting rotation, and they will no doubt be among the teams inquiring on Chicago White Sox emerging ace Garrett Crochet, if only to do their due diligence.
They could also look at late-inning arms like Kirby Yates (TEX), Tanner Scott (MIA), Carlos Estévez (LAA), or take a buy-low flier on hard-throwing Michael Kopech (CWS).
According to Jon Heyman of the New York Post, the team's top priority is a rotation addition, though they could also look to add an infield bat or another outfielder to bolster an underperforming group outside of Teoscar Hernández.
The Dodgers Make the Postseason If...
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If the Dodgers can avoid any more significant injuries and slowly start to trend toward a fully healthy roster, the in-house improvements alone might be enough for them to coast to their 11th division title in 12 years.
They entered play on Wednesday with a 7.5-game cushion in the NL West standings and a plus-95 run differential that ranks second in the National League and fifth in the majors, so even with a less dominant start than we've seen in years past, they are still in great shape.
FanGraphs currently gives them a 98.9 percent chance of making the playoffs, which is the best odds outside of the Philadelphia Phillies (99.9 percent), so it would take an epic collapse for them to be sitting at home in October.
The bigger question is whether they can get healthy enough to have a rotation that is well-equipped for a deep playoff run.
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