Winners and Losers from the Jake Guentzel Trade to the Tampa Bay Lightning
On Sunday morning, just a little more than 24 hours before the start of the free-agent signing period, the Tampa Bay Lightning acquired the free-agent negotiating rights to winger Jake Guentzel from the Carolina Hurricanes in exchange for a third-round draft pick.
It pretty much closes the door on Guentzel re-signing with the Hurricanes, gives the Lightning a head start on trying to sign one of the top players available and could push a franchise icon out of Tampa Bay.
That is a lot to unwrap, so let's take a look at the early winners and losers from the trade.
Winner: Tampa Bay Lightning (Potentially)
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The key here is if the Lightning can get Guentzel signed to a contract extension before he goes to the open market Monday.
If they can, it's a big win for the Lightning and a serious addition to their lineup. It also is another reminder that there is always a way to get out of salary-cap headaches and still figure out a way to go after a big-name star. The Lightning and Vegas Golden Knights remain the best at this.
Guentzel is one of the best all-around wingers in the NHL and is the total package when it comes to his ability to help drive offense.
He is one of the top goal-scoring wingers in the league and is also an extremely underrated playmaker who has a proven track record of being able to play alongside top-tier talent.
Since the start of the 2018-19 season, Guentzel ranks 20th out of 583 players (minimum 200 games played) with 1.03 points per game and 13th with 0.47 goals per game. He is a bona fide star offensively and should be a great fit with the Lightning assuming he signs with them.
While it would likely push Steven Stamkos out the door, the bottom line is Guentzel is every bit as productive, perhaps better at five-on-five play at this stage of their careers, and is five years younger.
If the Lightning can not re-sign Guentzel, they lose a third-round pick, likely miss out on their chance to re-sign Stamkos, and are left with nothing but cap space. That could make them a loser. But for now? Potential winners.
Loser: Guentzel's Hope for An 8-Year Deal
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It is not a huge deal for Guentzel because he is still going to cash in on a per-year basis, no matter where he signs this offseason. But if he was hoping to get the max-term eight-year contract, that went away the second the Hurricanes traded his free agent rights to Tampa Bay.
Now the best he can hope for is a seven-year deal, which is still something he could easily get if he wants. And he probably does.
There is nothing that says he has to sign in Tampa Bay, and he is still in the driver's seat when it comes to his next destination. If the Lightning match his salary demands, it works out for everybody. If they do not, he has the open market at his disposal. The advantage Carolina had at the start of the offseason was the potential for an eight-year deal. Now nobody has that, and it all comes down to who will pay up in terms of the salary.
Loser: Steven Stamkos' Career Finishing with Lightning
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The writing had already been on the wall for this, but the Lightning being willing to give up a third-round draft pick for Guentzel's rights is a pretty good sign of two things.
The first is that they are confident they can get Guentzel signed.
The second is that it probably closes the book on Stamkos returning to Tampa Bay because there is virtually no chance they can sign both.
Stamkos has been one of the Lightning's all-time great players—arguably the greatest and best player in franchise history—and a central part of the franchise for more than 15 years. But when the Lightning did not sign him to a contract extension last July when they first had the chance, and then went through the season without doing so, it became pretty clear they were prepared to go in a different direction.
General manager Julien BriseBois has typically re-signed the players he wants to keep long-term as soon as they are eligible to sign extensions (when they still have one year left on their deal). Anybody who does not get that extension and goes to market typically leaves.
When the Lightning traded Mikhail Sergachev and Tanner Jeannot on Saturday and then said nothing had changed with Stamkos, it further confirmed that Stamkos would be leaving. Trading for Guentzel's rights seems to close the door entirely.
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Winner: Stamkos' Ability to Go to Highest Bidder
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While it might stink for Stamkos to not finish his career with the Lightning, it became pretty obvious they had a number in mind they were not willing to exceed to keep him. They might have wanted him back, but they wanted him back at their price. And it was probably below what Stamkos wants, deserves and can probably still get on the open market.
Now he is going to get an opportunity to pursue that, and there should be no shortage of teams interested in him that could pay him what he wants (and should get) and still give him a chance to compete for a Stanley Cup.
Nashville seems like a team that would have plenty of interest in him, it has the salary-cap space to pay him, and after making the playoffs in 2023-24, it has a really formidable roster that simply needs another star-level player to help bring everything together.
Loser: Carolina Hurricanes' Start to the Offseason
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The good news for the Hurricanes is there's still a lot of offseason remaining to fix things.
But things are definitely off to a somewhat ominous start for the offseason overall.
Restricted free agent Martin Necas' future with the team still remains very much in doubt, they seem likely to lose defensemen Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei to free agency, forward Teuvo Teravainen seems destined to leave, and now they were unable to come to an agreement with Guentzel.
That could be an awful lot of talent leaving at one time. That will not be easy to replace.
The Hurricanes do still have more than $23 million in cap space remaining with 19 players already under contract, so that does give them a lot of flexibility to fill those spots. But they might need to find two top-four defensemen and two top-six wingers while also figuring out how to handle the restricted free agencies of Necas and Seth Jarvis.
Salary-cap info via CapFriendly.
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