Last-Minute Predictions for the 2024 NBA Draft
The 2024 NBA draft is nearly here, and there's plenty of buzz about what will happen on Wednesday and Thursday night.
In a draft without a surefire, no-brainer No. 1 pick, surprises could start at the very top of the draft. Dominoes will fall from there, and some of those could include trades.
With teams figuring out life amidst the dreaded new second apron, contributors on rookie contracts could be as important as ever. Moving around in the draft could be the way to find those players.
As we approach the first night of the draft, we've cobbled together some predictions about what could unfold in the next two days.
Zaccharie Risacher Will Go No. 1
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For months, draft analysts and fans alike have pegged this draft class as a weak one. That sometimes leads to an unexpected top pick. Think back to 2013, when the announcement of Anthony Bennett's name at No. 1 generated some genuine shockwaves.
Something similar could happen Wednesday, but most mock drafts have settled on French sharpshooter Zaccharie Risacher in that spot. ESPN's Jonathan Givony says most teams he's talked to have him at the top of their boards, too.
A trade feels like a real possibility, given the Atlanta Hawks' proximity to competitiveness. But if they keep that pick, Risacher makes a lot of sense.
He and Jalen Johnson could combine to make a solid, mostly positionless forward combo that would be able to seamlessly switch on the perimeter. Risacher's shooting—he's hit over 40 percent of his three-point attempts as an international pro—should also help keep driving lanes nice and roomy for Trae Young and/or Dejounte Murray.
Houston Will Keep the No. 3 Pick
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There are plenty of rumors flying around about potential draft-night trades.
The Utah Jazz may be thinking of packaging the Nos. 29 and 32 picks to move up. The Milwaukee Bucks might pair their No. 23 overall pick with Pat Connaughton and/or Bobby Portis in an effort to land another win-now player.
And the Houston Rockets, who have the No. 3 pick, could be willing to part with it for a veteran star to plug into their young core.
It's not hard to see why that might be intriguing. If the Rockets could plug someone like Jimmy Butler into lineups with Alperen Şengün, Jabari Smith Jr. and whoever might be left after the hypothetical trade, they could break back into the playoffs.
But there's also a compelling argument to stay the course set last offseason. The Rockets made a pair of win-now moves when they signed Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks in free agency, but they have enough young talent to remain competitive beyond those contracts.
Adding Reed Sheppard to a group that already includes Şengün, Smith, Jalen Green, Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore would make it even easier to trust that approach.
Most mocks have Sheppard going to the Rockets at No. 3. His shooting—he hit 52.1 percent of his three-point attempts as a freshman at 2023-24—would make him a potentially dangerous weapon playing off Thompson and Şengün's playmaking.
Ron Holland Will Go in the Top 10
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Ron Holland was the No. 2 prospect from the 2023 high school class, and he was at or near the top of plenty of draft boards early in the 2023-24 campaign.
However, he struggled with his jump shot during his lone season with the G-League Ignite, where he was just 11-of-46 (23.9 percent) from deep. That caused him to slide comfortably outside of the top 10 in several mock drafts.
Still, Holland has good size (6'7" with a 6'11" wingspan) for a wing, NBA athleticism and pedigree. His weaknesses, according to Bleacher Report's Jonathan Wasserman, are shot-creation, shooting and decision-making.
While those are critically important skills, they're all things that can be developed. That's why some team in the top 10 figures to roll the dice on the natural attributes that Holland already brings to the table.
Zach Edey Will Go in the Lottery
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Two-time National Player of the Year Zach Edey is almost the inverse of Holland. He doesn't have the vertical or side-to-side explosiveness that plenty of lottery prospects boast, but his feel for the game and the effort with which he plays it are off the charts.
He also does have one physical attribute that no one else in this class can match: He's huge.
Edey came in at nearly 7'4" without shoes and with a 7'11" wingspan at the draft combine. Even if he's not quite Victor Wembanyama in terms of mobility, he's not a total stiff, either.
With that size and the touch Edey displayed in college, especially over the last two seasons, some team figures to take a shot on him in the lottery.
According to The Ringer's Kevin O'Connor, the Portland Trail Blazers could target him as high as No. 7.
Bronny James Will Get Picked Before the Lakers at No. 55
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At this point, it seems safe to assume that Bronny James' floor in this draft is the 55th pick, which the Los Angeles Lakers currently own.
Despite averaging only 4.8 points and shooting 26.7 percent from deep as a freshman, James' athleticism (he had a 40.5-inch vertical) and the opportunity to fulfill LeBron James' dream of playing with his son will make him a worthwhile gamble that late in the draft.
But James' athleticism and the pedigree that comes with being the son of an all-time great might also intrigue some other teams around that range.
Beyond the appeal of playing spoiler to the Lakers, some team ahead of their spot at No. 55 will take a shot on the defensive upside of the younger James.
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