Biggest Flight Risks in 2024 NHL Free Agency
Free agency can be the scariest time of year for many teams across the NHL. Whether a team has cap issues or not, any player who hits the free market can sign wherever they want and that can cause headaches for the teams that employed them.
Teams can always re-sign players or give them contract extensions to ensure they don't make it to free agency, but the lure of being able to land a big contract can be enough for players to give up the comforts of where they're at and sign with another team.
With the July 1 start of NHL free agency approaching, we're going to take a look at the players who pose the biggest risk of leaving their current teams and heading elsewhere.
Whether it's more money, new situations or teams deciding to go in a different direction, we're going to examine a few players who might wind up with a new home address.
These aren't sure things, of course, but each of these players will have a handful of logical reasons to look and land elsewhere.
Patrick Kane, Detroit Red Wings
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There's no doubt Patrick Kane had a major, positive impact on the Detroit Red Wings this season. When he elected to sign a one-year deal after coming back from hip surgery, there were plenty of unknowns as to how well he would perform.
However, the veteran looked good and while he wasn't going to be the 90-100-point player we saw a few years ago, he still put up 47 points in 50 games. But after Detroit missed the postseason yet again, he didn't sound like a guy committed to returning to the team.
At 35 years old and a three-time Stanley Cup winner, Kane won't be eager to join teams in rebuilds or borderline playoff squads, which means Detroit at this point given it hasn't been to the playoffs since 2016.
The likes of the New York Rangers, Carolina Hurricanes, Dallas Stars or Florida Panthers would likely appeal more strongly than going back to the Red Wings.
That said, Detroit is on the upswing, and it went well for him this season. So, if he opted to return, it would make sense. But with time being the biggest enemy for Kane, a spot with a sure-fire contender would make far more sense.
Jake Guentzel, Carolina Hurricanes
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The Carolina Hurricanes knew the risks when they acquired Jake Guentzel from the Pittsburgh Penguins. They knew he could become a free agent on July 1 and the opportunity to cash in big on the open market appealed to him.
However, they are in a win-now mode and when the chance to add an outstanding player who would help them immediately was there, they seized on it.
Unfortunately, though, Guentzel appears certain to head into July 1 open to suitors across the league. He was outstanding with the Hurricanes and helped them make it to the second round of the playoffs. Unfortunately, Carolina had much loftier goals in mind.
Carolina has reportedly been looking to trade the 29-year-old's rights to recoup something for him since he's going to free agency, but if he's set on going to July 1, what team would be willing to part with a draft pick just to talk to him exclusively until then? It wouldn't make much sense.
If Guentzel wound up staying with Carolina, it would be huge for the team because he was a great fit. But given how things look and how the Hurricanes are trying to re-sign Brett Pesce and Brady Skjei, perhaps their attention is better paid elsewhere.
Sam Reinhart, Florida Panthers
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We'll have to forgive the Florida Panthers and Sam Reinhart if they've been a little busy negotiating a new contract, what with trying to win the Stanley Cup and all that.
Once the Cup Final is over, though, GM Bill Zito has a lot of work to do.
Reinhart had 57 goals this season and has turned into one of the Panthers' elite scorers. They wouldn't have made back-to-back Stanley Cup Finals without him and losing him in free agency would be a tough pill to swallow.
Florida will have a salary-cap crunch in the offseason and Reinhart isn't the only key player they've got to try to bring back.
Brandon Montour, Dmitry Kulikov, Oliver Ekman-Larsson, Nick Cousins, Kevin Stenlund, Ryan Lomberg and Vladimir Tarasenko stand out among their other UFAs. According to Cap Friendly, they've got just over $20 million in cap space for the offseason with 14 players signed. That's less than ideal.
Obviously, players such as Reinhart and Montour take priority, but the Panthers may have to decide between the two of them or figure out ways to get creative with the books.
If Florida can't get Reinhart re-signed before July 1, it won't be too long before other teams make him a major offer.
Even though he's in a great situation in Florida, money talks and it's not as if other contending teams won't try to find a way to add the 28-year-old too.
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Jonathan Marchessault, Vegas Golden Knights
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The Vegas Golden Knights always find a way to get things done, but they might have a tricky time trying to bring back 2023 Conn Smythe Trophy winner Jonathan Marchessault.
The 33-year-old has been a major reason why the Golden Knights have been outstanding from the outset. He's a Vegas original and the picture of perseverance. He's scored 100 goals in the past three seasons and had a career-high 42 this year. That kind of production isn't easy to find elsewhere.
But Vegas is tight to the salary cap, and Marchessault is just one of a few key players who could be headed to market come July 1.
Chandler Stephenson, William Carrier, Michael Amadio and Anthony Mantha are also eligible to head out, but Marchessault is the biggest of the bunch especially given how well he's played with Jack Eichel.
The winger's age makes it an awkward signing, though. Giving him max years isn't an option, but with his production level he's earned a big payout and Vegas spent a whole lot of money to get Noah Hanifin signed to a long-term extension.
Letting Marchessault walk would be tough, especially since they can't quite afford to bring in a big money player to replace him.
Then again, there's always the trade market.
Nikita Zadorov, Vancouver Canucks
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When the Vancouver Canucks signed Filip Hronek to an eight-year, $58 million extension this week, it was surprising, especially considering they also want to bring back defenseman Nikita Zadorov.
However, Hronek's $7.25 million cap hit might be juicy enough to squeeze the big Russian out of the mix and into free agency.
The Canucks are looking at around $16 million in cap space for the offseason with 17 players accounted for so that's relatively good. But Zadorov has proved how valuable he is on the ice as a physical force on the blue line.
Getting the 29-year-old re-signed should be easy enough. The other UFAs-to-be on defense are Ian Cole and Tyler Myers, and if either returns, the cost shouldn't be prohibitive.
The one roadblock to getting Zadorov back could be the contract Elias Lindholm would get if he stayed in Vancouver.
Lindholm is poised to sign a big deal and if it's in Vancouver, it's hard to see Zadorov fitting into the budget.
The Canucks might have to decide which player means more to them in the long run and considering they gave up assets to Calgary to get each of them, letting one of them walk for nothing would be a sore one to take.
Steven Stamkos, Tampa Bay Lightning
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It seems ludicrous that Steven Stamkos could wind up playing for anyone but the Tampa Bay Lightning, but until he signs a contract with them, the possibility of that happening grows.
Tampa Bay is really tight to the cap ($5.3 million under with 18 players accounted for) and Stamkos is coming off a 40-goal, 81-point season. He's 34 years old but clearly can still play and finish with the best scorers in the league.
This isn't to say the Lightning need to give him a long-term contract, but it does mean that whatever contract he does sign won't come cheap. Re-signing the captain would be smart for optics and legacies, but it would likely come at a cost in that they'd potentially have to trade another key player to make room under the cap.
That's the cost of doing business, but after how sour things ended between the Lightning and former captain Martin St. Louis years ago, parting on awkward terms with Stamkos would be a gut punch given how important he's been to them since they drafted him No. 1 in 2008.
Stamkos would have many suitors eager to sign him if he hit the market, and his hometown Toronto Maple Leafs surely would love to revisit their chance to bring him home.
Lightning general manager Julien BriseBois can't let it get to that point, though.
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