Predicting NFL's Top 24 Rookie Offensive Performers for Fantasy Football Managers
With each passing day, the 2024 NFL season opener between the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens gets closer and closer. So does another season of fantasy football.
There's still a long way to go, though. At this time of year, OTAs and minicamps are of most value to incoming rookies.
Kansas City Chiefs quarterback Patrick Mahomes knows what's ahead of him. So does Minnesota Vikings wide receiver Justin Jefferson. Meanwhile, Chicago Bears quarterback Caleb Williams and New York Giants wide receiver Malik Nabers only think they do.
Frankly, the same holds true for fantasy football analysts. The industry is filled with knowledgeable folks who spend countless hours analyzing data and tape to develop an opinion on how the rookie class will fare. But when your hypothesis has more variables than the Fyre Festival had angry customers, things can go sideways fairly easily.
Player valuations have to start somewhere, though, and it's fun to try to peg which variables will fall which way.
With that in mind, here's an early look at the NFL's 24 most impactful rookies for fantasy purposes, with the focus less on dynasty formats and more about the 2024 campaign.
The Tier 2 Quarterbacks and 1 RB
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24. Braelon Allen, RB, New York Jets
The history of Wisconsin running backs in the NFL has been mixed. Players like Jonathan Taylor have become stars, while the likes of Ron Dayne did not.
Allen's NFL fate remains to be seen, but in some ways, his game is a mix of the two. And at 235 pounds, he certainly appears well-suited to the goal-line work that can be so valuable to fantasy managers.
But Allen's fantasy value in 2024 lies mostly as a handcuff for Breece Hall, who is a clear first-round pick this year. Hall missed 10 games as a rookie with an ACL tear, so having insurance for him is a wise move. It appears as though Allen is that handcuff.
23. Bo Nix, QB, Denver Broncos
Here's a little foreshadowing: You aren't going to see New England Patriots quarterback Drake Maye listed here. Jacoby Brissett figures to open the 2024 campaign as the Patriots' starter, and even if Maye supplants him at some point, he'll be at the helm of arguably the NFL's most talent-deficient offense. Drafting Maye is drafting for the future in fantasy—and even then…meh.
However, the Broncos thought enough of Nix to select him at No. 12 overall (higher than most expected), and the only thing separating him from their starting job is Jarrett Stidham. Nix may well spend his whole NFL career as a middling fantasy QB, but he could hit that admittedly low ceiling in his first year.
22. J.J. McCarthy, QB, Minnesota Vikings
McCarthy just won a national title at Michigan, but in many respects, he's just like the guy whom he's replacing—minus the NFL resume.
McCarthy does most things well, but nothing at an elite level. He's much more likely to spend his NFL career as a marginal fantasy starter than to ever be a top-five option at the position.
But it's hard to imagine Vikings head coach Kevin O' Connell watch Sam Darnold airmail receivers for the rest of the summer and then say, "Yeah, let's start this guy." If McCarthy isn't the Week 1 starter for the Vikings, he figures to be soon after, and the Minnesota offense has more than a few weapons. I hear some guy named Justin is pretty good.
Three-Wide Set
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21. Troy Franklin, WR, Denver Broncos
There aren't many 6'3" wide receivers with Franklin's burst and speed. If the former Oregon star can add some bulk without sacrificing any of that speed, he has the potential to develop into a dangerous offensive weapon. He piled up almost 1,400 receiving yards and 14 touchdowns with the Ducks last season.
Franklin should also benefit from reuniting with Oregon quarterback Bo Nix, and the Broncos freed up some targets in the passing game by trading Jerry Jeudy to Cleveland this offseason. How many of those targets will go Franklin's way remains to be seen, though, especially if Courtland Sutton stays put.
20. Roman Wilson, WR, Pittsburgh Steelers
After trading Diontae Johnson to Carolina this offseason, the Steelers needed to add talent at wide receiver. And while reported trade talks with the San Francisco 49ers have yet to bear fruit, the Steelers did use a third-round pick on Wilson, who tallied 789 yards and 12 scores through the air last year for the national champion Michigan Wolverines.
Wilson isn't a Johnson clone by any stretch. He isn't the biggest receiver, but with 4.39-second speed, he can hurt opposing defenses over the top.
If Wilson can earn a starting role in 2024, then he's ranked too low here. But those trade talks with the 49ers loom over his rookie fantasy value like a dark cloud.
19. Ja'Lynn Polk, WR, New England Patriots
As Rome Odunze's running mate in Washington last season, Polk caught 69 passes for 1,159 yards and nine scores. He isn't as physically talented or as fast as Odunze, but he's a strong route-runner with stronger hands who is a welcome addition to a New England offense that can use all the passing-game punch it can get.
Therein lies the problem, though. The New England offense was a disaster last year, ranking 28th in the league in passing and 31st in overall scoring.
Will that offense be better in 2024 with Jacoby Brissett or rookie Drake Maye under center? Probably. But that doesn't mean it will be improved enough to make Polk more than a bye-week dart throw.
Three Players, Three Question Marks
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18. Jaylen Wright, RB, Miami Dolphins
A 5'10", 210-pounder with sub-4.4-second speed, Wright peeled off 1,013 yards on the ground last year and averaged 7.4 yards per carry. His addition on Day 3 of the 2024 draft gave the NFL's fastest backfield yet another player capable of taking it to the house on any given play.
The issue for Wright—at least in 2024—is going to be getting those chances to take it to the house. He projects as the No. 3 back on the roster behind veteran Raheem Mostert and youngster De'Von Achane.
But Mostert is well the wrong side of 30 and Achane had issues staying on the field last year. Wright could get his shot to carve out a role in the Dolphins offense sooner than expected.
17. Xavier Legette, WR, Carolina Panthers
Legette was Carolina's first selection in this year's NFL draft, continuing an offensive overhaul intended to give Bryce Young a better chance at success after his shaky rookie season. The 6'3", 227-pound wideout gives Young something he was lacking last year—a speedster who can take the top off a defense.
But this year's offensive overhaul also included the addition of veteran wide receiver Diontae Johnson, and Adam Thielen remains on the team after catching 103 passes for 1,013 yards last season. Add in that the Panthers were dead last in passing a year ago, and expectations for Legette should be tempered this season.
16. Adonai Mitchell, Indianapolis Colts
The Colts were believers in Mitchell's talent, drafting him in Round 2 back in April. And there are draftniks who loved the pick, with one calling Mitchell a "bona fide WR1" while speaking to Ross Tucker of CBS Sports. He went so far as to compare the 6'2", 205-pounder to CeeDee Lamb of the Dallas Cowboys.
Mitchell should have the chance to carve out a real role in the Colts passing game. Youngster Josh Downs showed flashes last year, but the Colts don't have much aside from him and Michael Pittman Jr. on their depth chart at receiver. The larger question is whether Mitchell can show more than flashes himself after an inconsistent career at Texas.
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The Maybe Brigade
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15. Marshawn Lloyd, RB, Green Bay Packers
This refrain echoes through this piece more times than "We Have the Meats!" in an Arby's commercial, but talent is not the issue with Lloyd. He has a three-down skill set, has already been turning heads in workouts and may well be the fastest running back on the team.
But the Packers didn't pay Josh Jacobs $12 million per season to play second fiddle to anyone, and Green Bay also still has AJ Dillon in its backfield as well. Lloyd has the explosiveness to take advantage of any touches he receives, but the uncertainty surrounding his role makes him a speculative add in redraft formats.
14. Blake Corum, RB, Los Angeles Rams
Corum may have been the single most depressing pick of the 2024 NFL draft from a fantasy perspective. Not because Corum isn't a good player—even if he's not particularly great in any single area, he's solid in just about all of them.
It was depressing because of what it could mean for the fantasy value of Kyren Williams.
Williams was one of fantasy's biggest surprises last season, and he's being drafted inside RB1 territory in the early going of this year's drafts. But as great as Williams was in 2023, he also missed significant time last season and plays for a head coach in Sean McVay who has been notoriously fickle over the years with his running backs.
13. Ricky Pearsall, WR, San Francisco 49ers
With their first pick in the 2024 NFL draft, the San Francisco 49ers surprisingly selected Pearsall, who caught 65 passes and flirted with 1,000 receiving yards last year at Florida. It wasn't a surprising pick because the 6'3", 192-pounder isn't talented, but because the 49ers appear relatively set at the wideout position—for now.
That could change in a hurry if the 49ers decide to trade one of Brandon Aiyuk or Deebo Samuel rather than ride out one more year with that duo. The Niners drafted Pearsall with the future in mind, but his 2024 value could skyrocket in a nanosecond if they break up their receiving corps.
The Top-Ranked Rookie RBs of 2024
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12. Trey Benson, RB, Arizona Cardinals
Benson was my top running back prospect in the class of 2024, as he has all of the ingredients to be an every-down back in the NFL. The 6'1", 223-pounder boasts sub-4.4-second speed, excellent burst through the hole and good hands catching the rock.
The problem is that Benson has a capable running back ahead of him on the Cardinals depth chart in veteran James Conner, who ran for a career-high 1,040 rushing yards last season. However, Conner is also a 29-year-old with a lengthy injury history, and he isn't nearly as explosive with the ball in his hands as Benson.
11. Jonathon Brooks, RB, Carolina Panthers
Not one running back cracked the top 10 fantasy rookies in 2024, which speaks both to the changing face of the NFL and a so-so class at the position this season. Brooks carries additional questions into his first NFL season—chiefly the torn ACL that ended his collegiate career at Texas.
Carolina has a crowded running back room as well—Chuba Hubbard, Miles Sanders and Rashaad Penny will all compete with Brooks for touches. But this analyst is a big believer in Brooks' talent and explosiveness. He's going to be the lead back for the Panthers sooner than later.
10. Keon Coleman, WR, Buffalo Bills
Coleman's reception (50) and yardage (658) totals at Florida State last year weren't especially impressive. But his 11 touchdowns speak to his large 6'4", 215-pound frame and potential as a boundary receiver.
Coleman's ranking here is less about what he accomplished in Tallahassee, or even about his long-term potential in Western New York. After losing Gabe Davis and Stefon Diggs in the offseason, the Bills don't just need a boundary wideout for the future. They need one now.
If Coleman is a quick study, he could easily surpass this ranking by a fair margin.
Want More Receivers? Too Bad—You're Getting Them
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9. Ladd McConkey, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
McConkey isn't the same caliber of game-breaker as the wide receivers listed ahead of him here. He wins more with a quick first step and crisp route-running than with size and speed.
But talent isn't what lands the 6'0", 185-pound slot machine inside the top 10. Situation is.
After the Chargers jettisoned both Keenan Allen and Mike Williams in the offseason, their wide receiver room is a major question mark. Joshua Palmer and DJ Chark Jr. have durability issues. Meanwhile, Quentin Johnston was a major disappointment as a rookie in 2023.
McConkey could carve out a sizable role in Justin Herbert's passing attack early in his inaugural season.
8. Jayden Daniels, QB, Washington Commanders
If these rankings were strictly from a dynasty perspective, the second overall pick in the 2024 NFL draft would likely be listed a bit lower. But in terms of impact this season, the 2023 Heisman Trophy winner might actually be too low on this list.
Daniels will all but certainly be the Week 1 starter when Washington faces the Buccaneers in Tampa. The Commanders aren't without passing-game talent in star wideout Terry McLaurin and 2022 first-rounder Jahan Dotson. And Daniels' scrambling ability potentially adds significantly to his fantasy value.
7. Brian Thomas Jr., WR, Jacksonville Jaguars
Thomas has everything NFL teams covet in a wide receiver. He's a 6'4", 205-pounder with long arms and 4.33-second speed. It's not hard to see why a Jaguars team that lost Calvin Ridley in free agency took Thomas with the 23rd overall pick.
Thomas has reportedly shined throughout rookie minicamp and OTAs, and he has the potential to be a star in the NFL. He has to contend with wideouts Christian Kirk and Gabe Davis and tight end Evan Engram for targets, but it wouldn't be a surprise to see him emerge as Jacksonville's No. 2 wide receiver as a rookie.
Upside Galore—But Questions, Too
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6. Xavier Worthy, WR, Kansas City Chiefs
No rookie's fantasy stock has risen more since February than Worthy.
First, the former Texas star turned in the fastest 40-yard dash in the history of the NFL combine. Then the Kansas City Chiefs traded up to select the 5'11", 165-pounder. Add in a potential suspension for Rashee Rice due to his legal problems, and Worthy-mania has hit a fever pitch.
However, we're still talking about an undersized rookie who's playing for a team that has veteran tight end Travis Kelce and added wide receiver Marquise Brown in free agency. Worthy could blow up in 2024, but he's still a tier below this season's Big Three rookie wideouts.
5. Brock Bowers, TE, Las Vegas Raiders
The dominant season turned in last year by Sam LaPorta of the Detroit Lions has rekindled fantasy interest in rookie tight ends. And to be clear, Bowers is a much more highly regarded prospect than LaPorta was. He's on the Kyle Pitts level of "Ooooh. Shiny new tight end."
The issue with Bowers in 2024 is the same as with many of this year's rookies—less talent than situation.
Bowers will have to compete with wide receivers Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers for targets, and the quarterback situation in Las Vegas is a question mark. Still, in the early going, the former Georgia standout is being taken as a low-end TE1.
4. Rome Odunze, WR, Chicago Bears
Among this year's high-end rookie receivers, Odunze is the wild card.
It's not a matter of talent. The 6'3" 215-pounder showed off plenty of that while hauling in 92 catches for 1,640 yards and 13 touchdowns last year at Washington. The problem with Odunze could be targets.
The Bears have assembled quite a cadre of pass-catchers, with veteran wideout Keenan Allen also joining a group that already included wide receiver DJ Moore and tight end Cole Kmet. Odunze could be a bit hit-and-miss early on unless he builds a quick rapport with rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.
The Big Three
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3. Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
To say that expectations are high for Williams in Chicago is an understatement. Long-suffering Bears fans want Williams to be the best signal-caller in franchise history. No pressure.
There are going to be ups and downs with Williams in 2024. There always are with rookie quarterbacks. But Williams is an exceptional talent with the mobility to extend plays and gain yardage with his legs, and he'll have plenty of skill-position talent at his disposal.
That Williams is being drafted as a high-end QB2 on average—one spot ahead of Justin Herbert of the Los Angeles Chargers—speaks to the upside fantasy managers see in him.
2. Malik Nabers, WR, New York Giants
Some in the draft community believed Nabers was a better prospect than Marvin Harrison Jr. Harrison was the first non-quarterback drafted, but Nabers didn't have to wait long to hear his name called. He went two picks after Harrison to the New York Giants at No. 6 overall.
Nabers is already being talked up by Giants quarterback Daniel Jones as a "tremendous weapon." He should quickly become New York's top wideout and lead all Giants pass-catchers in PPR points as a rookie.
1. Marvin Harrison Jr., WR, Arizona Cardinals
Whether it's in redraft or dynasty leagues, there's little question who the No. 1 rookie is in fantasy football this season.
Harrison's early ADP in redraft formats at FantasyPros is WR9—ahead of the likes of Davante Adams of the Las Vegas Raiders and Chris Olave of the New Orleans Saints.
Frankly, that ADP is on the high side. Drafting at ceiling is rarely a good idea. But Harrison is wildly talented, the most NFL-ready wideout we've seen in some time and should slot as Arizona's No. 1 receiver from the jump.
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