Predicting Winners of NFL QB Competitions Ahead of 2024 Training Camp
NFL teams with an unsettled quarterback room have to make a crucial decision: Who's going to lead the offense? Coaches can make or break their club's season with that call.
After an extended layoff following mandatory minicamps, several teams will have roughly six weeks to name a starting quarterback for Week 1.
Coaches will evaluate starting QB candidates during training camp practices, which include joint sessions with other teams, and through the preseason before they finalize an initial 53-man depth chart.
Before player evaluations crank up a notch in the summer, we'll take an early look at the quarterback battles across the league and project a winner for each competition.
First, we'll start with four situations to monitor into the 2024 season. These teams have a probable starter who could lose favor early in the campaign.
Quarterback Situations to Monitor
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Atlanta Falcons
The Atlanta Falcons signed Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract and selected Michael Penix Jr. with the No. 8 pick in the 2024 draft, assembling an intriguing quarterback room.
With his contract, Cousins will undoubtedly start, assuming he makes a full recovery from a torn Achilles.
But if the 35-year-old doesn't look sharp by midseason, one has to wonder if the Falcons will consider plugging in Penix for an offensive spark.
New York Giants
Daniel Jones tore his ACL in November, but he doesn't have "any doubt" he will be ready to start Week 1.
The New York Giants haven't invested much of their resources into the quarterback room this offseason.
They signed Drew Lock to a one-year, $5 million deal, and they passed on top quarterbacks with the No. 6 pick for wideout Malik Nabers.
Nonetheless, entering his sixth season after four underwhelming campaigns, Jones could lose his job if he doesn't show early improvement.
Seattle Seahawks
Seattle Seahawks general manager John Schneider told Seattle Sports 710 AM that Geno Smith is "the guy" and Sam Howell, who was acquired from the Washington Commanders, is the backup.
However, a Seahawks source told ESPN's Brady Henderson that Howell could turn the team's quarterback situation into a competition.
"One Seahawks source said he thinks Howell has the talent and drive to push Smith for the starting job. 'He'll battle his ass off,' the source said," he wrote.
The Seahawks hired a new coaching staff, led by Mike Macdonald, who appointed former Washington Huskies offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb to the same position with Seattle.
Under a new offensive coaching staff, Smith shouldn't get too comfortable with Schneider's words. Remember, Howell started in all 17 games with the Commanders last season, throwing for 3,946 yards, 21 touchdowns and 21 interceptions with a 63.4 percent completion rate. He could move the ball if given an opportunity to run the offense.
Tennessee Titans
In all likelihood, the Tennessee Titans will roll into the upcoming season with second-year pro Will Levis as their starting quarterback.
At the NFL owners meetings, Titans general manager Ran Carthon said Mason Rudolph will help Levis and third-year pro Malik Willis mature as signal-callers and also push them.
Willis hasn't shown much as a pocket playmaker in his first two seasons, throwing three interceptions without a touchdown pass in 11 games (three starts).
Levis struggled after his debut start against the Falcons last season, though he will likely get another opportunity to prove himself under a new coaching staff before the Titans consider a switch to Rudolph.
Denver Broncos
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Contenders: Jarrett Stidham vs. Zach Wilson vs. Bo Nix
The Denver Broncos have moved on from Russell Wilson, and they will sort through a true quarterback competition with three candidates for the position.
Jarrett Stidham has a bit of an edge over Zach Wilson and Bo Nix because he has a year of exposure to head coach and offensive play-caller Sean Payton's system. According to 9News' Mike Klis, the 27-year-old has made a strong case to retain the starting job.
In 2023, Stidham started in two games, throwing for 496 yards, two touchdowns and an interception with a 60.6 percent completion rate.
Wilson has far more career starts than Stidham and Nix combined, though.
However, the 2021 No. 2 overall pick mostly struggled through 33 starts with the New York Jets, throwing for 23 touchdowns and 25 interceptions with a 57 percent completion rate. He finished with a single-digit number of touchdown passes in all three of his campaigns.
Denver Sports 104.3 The Fan's Andrew Mason shared his early observations of Wilson, who may eventually fall to third on the depth chart:
"For those who know the NFL oeuvre of Zach Wilson, his work during the three open practices of OTAs looks quite familiar. His decision-making in the pocket is a tick slower than that of Bo Nix and Jarrett Stidham.
"He has mobility, but has also struggled with accuracy. That also reflects a quarterback who has a career completion percentage below the 60-percent baseline.
"Nevertheless, it's practice. And Wilson will have chances to improve in the next two months. But for the moment, Wilson looks like he has some ground to close on Stidham and Nix."
Denver selected Nix with the 12th pick in the 2024 draft, and he's earned praise from Payton.
If Nix is truly farther along than most other rookies as Payton says, he should be able to beat out a journeyman signal-caller with four career starts and a former No. 2 overall pick struggling with his second team.
Winner: Bo Nix
Las Vegas Raiders
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Contenders: Aidan O'Connell vs. Gardner Minshew II
The Las Vegas Raiders' quarterback battle could come down to the final preseason snap.
Aidan O'Connell and Gardner Minshew II were both fill-in starters last year, and they will now compete head-to-head.
O'Connell, 25, had a decent showing while the Raiders made midseason changes to their coaching staff.
After they fired head coach Josh McDaniels, then-interim lead skipper Antonio Pierce took charge and named the Purdue product the starter over Jimmy Garoppolo.
O'Connell threw for 12 touchdowns and seven interceptions with a 62.1 percent completion rate, averaging 201.6 passing yards per game in 11 outings (10 starts).
In Pierce's eyes, he has earned the right to compete for the lead role, but the Raiders—led by new general manager Tom Telesco—have signed Minshew to a two-year, $25 million contract.
In place of Anthony Richardson with the Indianapolis Colts, Minshew threw for 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a 62.2 percent completion rate, averaging 194.4 passing yards per game in 17 outings (13 starts).
The 28-year-old has more starting experience than O'Connell (37 to 10), but the latter has an established rapport with wideouts Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, Tre Tucker and tight end Michael Mayer.
At this point in their respective careers, Minshew and O'Connell are backup-level QBs. Regardless of who wins the job, we could see both under center for stretches in the upcoming term.
The Athletic's Tashan Reed expressed concern that neither performed well in the Raiders' new offense under offensive coordinator Luke Getsy.
"Understandably, there have been some growing pains, but it's still troubling that neither O'Connell nor Minshew displayed much progress results-wise by the end of OTAs," he wrote.
That said, Pierce and the Raiders may want to figure out how much (if any) upside O'Connell has going into his second season.
O'Connell and Minshew will have a close battle, but the Raiders will choose the younger quarterback in hopes of stumbling on a middle-round draft gem.
Winner: Aidan O'Connell
Minnesota Vikings
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Contenders: Sam Darnold vs. J.J. McCarthy vs. Nick Mullens vs. Jaren Hall
The Minnesota Vikings' competition comes down to Sam Darnold and rookie first-rounder J.J. McCarthy.
Last year, Nick Mullens and Jaren Hall had opportunities to showcase themselves in the starting role. Neither solidified himself in the lead position, which is why the Vikings signed Darnold and drafted McCarthy.
ESPN's Kevin Seifert shared his thoughts on his front-running candidate following mandatory minicamp.
"After two days of minicamp, and with one final week of OTAs remaining, he's squarely behind veteran Sam Darnold on the depth chart. During the practices open to reporters, Darnold has taken nearly all of the first-team reps, and more often than not, veteran Nick Mullens has been the next quarterback to step in followed by McCarthy and then Jaren Hall."
No one should be surprised that McCarthy has fallen behind a couple of veteran passers. Michigan didn't heavily rely on his arm in an offense that ranked 122nd across the nation in passing attempts per game last year.
The 21-year-old may develop gradually as he transitions to the pro level, which gives Darnold an early advantage in this battle. Head coach and offensive play-caller Kevin O'Connell told reporters that the USC product will be the team's No. 1 quarterback going into training camp.
Darnold may start for the entire 2024 season. Under O'Connell, he could have his best pro campaign.
Winner: Sam Darnold
New England Patriots
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Contenders: Jacoby Brissett vs. Drake Maye vs. Bailey Zappe
This offseason, the New England Patriots signed nine-year veteran Jacoby Brissett, who returns to the team for his second stint, and they selected Drake Maye with the No. 3 pick in the 2024 draft. Bailey Zappe, a 2022 fourth-rounder, is a roster holdover.
For now, Brissett is the lead quarterback, which makes sense given his familiarity with offensive coordinator Alex Van Pelt, going back to their time together with the Cleveland Browns in 2022.
In that year, the 31-year-old started in 11 contests, and though Van Pelt didn't call plays for that offense, he's seen the signal-caller's strengths and weaknesses up close.
The Athletic's Chad Graff noted that the Patriots were drawn to Maye's potential, but they also know he needs refinement:
"Even before the Pats drafted Maye, coach Jerod Mayo acknowledged that while they were enamored by how high Maye's ceiling was, they wondered how low his floor is. Essentially, they recognized that Maye, who was the second youngest quarterback drafted at 21 years old, is a bit raw. So if they need to wait to start Maye, they're perfectly content to enter the season with Brissett at quarterback."
The Athletic's Jeff Howe believes Maye needs to improve his pre-snap process to earn consideration for the lead role.
"Once Maye gets up to speed with the play calls in the huddle, the checks at the line and the field vision to be confident in his reads, he should earn a genuine opportunity to start," he wrote.
Brissett's experience will serve him well in this competition. He's started in 48 career games. Zappe has only started in eight NFL contests.
Brissett wins the job and starts for at least half of the 2024 season.
Winner: Jacoby Brissett
Pittsburgh Steelers
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Contenders: Russell Wilson vs. Justin Fields
The Pittsburgh Steelers have four new faces in their quarterback room.
They signed Russell Wilson, Kyle Allen and undrafted rookie John Rhys Plumlee, and they acquired Justin Fields from the Chicago Bears.
Because of the Steelers' turnover at the position, their starter should have to earn the job, though The Athletic's Mark Kaboly doesn't see much of a competition,
"Wilson was entrenched as QB1 for the past three weeks and did absolutely nothing to suggest that three minicamp practices, 16 or so training camp practices and two preseason games (the starters likely won't play in one of the three) will change that," he wrote.
Offensive coordinator Arthur Smith told reporters that the nine-time Pro Bowler is in "pole position" as the lead guy in the competition.
Thus far, Pittsburgh's QB situation isn't much of a battle, though Fields' drive to be the starter should keep him ready to take over the offense if Wilson struggles early in the season.
Meanwhile, Wilson will have an opportunity to build on a decent 2023 term in which he threw for 26 touchdowns and eight interceptions through 15 starts with the Denver Broncos.
Winner: Russell Wilson
Washington Commanders
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Contenders: Jayden Daniels vs. Marcus Mariota
The Washington Commanders traded Sam Howell, who started in all 17 games last year, to the Seattle Seahawks. They signed Marcus Mariota and selected Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 overall pick in the 2024 draft.
Clearly, the Commanders believe Daniels can be their franchise quarterback, though head coach Dan Quinn isn't going to crown his rookie signal-caller like the Chicago Bears did weeks ago.
Quinn told reporters that he has "no great declarations" on who will start Week 1 and revealed that Daniels and Mariota took first-team reps during practices.
Since Mariota lost the lead job with the Tennessee Titans in 2019, he's started in just 13 games, all with the Atlanta Falcons in 2022.
The 30-year-old mostly struggled through his tenure with the Falcons, throwing for 15 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a 61.3 percent completion rate, before falling behind Desmond Ridder on the depth chart.
At this stage of his career, Mariota isn't playing well enough to hold off last year's Heisman Trophy winner.
The Commanders will start Daniels and allow him to take his rookie lumps early in hopes that he will finish the season on a high note.
Winner: Jayden Daniels
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Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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