NFL Rumors: Trevor Lawrence's AAV on Jags Contract Expected to Top Goff, Not Burrow's

Trevor Lawrence could be the next quarterback to sign a lucrative extension, as his camp is in negotiations with the Jacksonville Jaguars about a long-term contract.

Per ESPN's Michael DiRocco, one NFL front office executive not affiliated with the Jaguars said they expect Lawrence's deal will make him the second-highest paid quarterback with an average annual salary sandwiched between Joe Burrow and Jared Goff:

"One NFL front office executive not affiliated with the Jaguars told ESPN they expect Lawrence's extension to have an average annual salary just ahead of Goff's $53 million, but not ahead of Burrow's $55 million. As for the structure of the deal, it should be similar to the deal Goff received, the executive said. Goff's contract is a four-year extension that kicks in after the 2024 season and includes a $78 million signing bonus. The Lions will spread that number over five seasons at $14.6 million per season."

According to DiRocco, the Jaguars hope to get Lawrence's deal done before their season opener on Sept. 8 because general manager Trent Baalke's policy is not to negotiate contracts during the regular season.

It would be in Jacksonville's best interest to get a deal done sooner than later because, as DiRocco noted, there are other quarterbacks also on the verge of signing new contracts that will drive Lawrence's price up:

"Second, the Jaguars could be forced to pay more if they wait longer, especially if Lawrence flourishes in his third season in coach Doug Pederson's offense and leads the Jaguars back to the playoffs, and (Tua)Tagovailoa, (Dak) Prescott and (Jordan) Love get new deals before him. 'It's just going to get more expensive,' the front office executive said. 'The price is only going to go up.'"

Goff agreed to a four-year, $212 million extension with the Detroit Lions earlier this month. He will be the only quarterback making at least $50 million in his age-30-or-older season in 2024. Kirk Cousins and Dak Prescott are the only other quarterbacks currently making at least $40 million per season who will playing next season over the age of 30.

Burrow signed his five-year, $275 million contract with the Cincinnati Bengals days before the start of the 2023 season. His deal came after Justin Herbert (five years, $262.5 million), Lamar Jackson (five years, $260 million) and Jalen Hurts (five years, $255 million) all got their contracts done earlier in the offseason.

Even though the Jaguars haven't taken off in the way that many expected after drafting Lawrence with the top pick in the 2021 NFL draft, his age (25) and upside make him so tantalizing as a quarterback to build around.

"You can't win on stats," one NFL agent told DiRocco about why the Jaguars should extend their quarterback. "You've got to go with youth. It takes time for quarterbacks to peak, and Goff is a great example. ... Great quarterbacks don't grow on trees. Plus, there's something to be said about keeping the face of your franchise happy."

Lawrence is a difficult quarterback to get a strong handle on. He's had his share of terrific moments over the past three seasons, leading to justified praise that he was the quarterback everyone expected coming out of Clemson.

But if you are someone who is skeptical of Lawrence as a quarterback who can carry a franchise, there is plenty of statistical evidence to support that theory. His 60 turnovers since the start of the 2021 season are the most in the NFL. Josh Allen (59) is the only other player with more than 50 turnovers during that span.

The difference is Allen has accounted for 128 touchdowns over the past three seasons, compared to 69 for Lawrence.

It could easily be argued that the Jaguars' front office has failed to take advantage of Lawrence's talent. He joined the team in 2021 that was coming off a 1-15 record the previous year and hired Urban Meyer as head coach.

The Meyer era flamed out after he went 2-11 in 13 games. Baalke has been unable to find a reliable No. 1 receiver for his quarterback. They lost Calvin Ridley in free agency in part because they wanted to wait until the start of the league year to sign him to avoid sending a second-round pick to the Atlanta Falcons as part of the parameters of the November 2022 trade for the veteran wideout.

Lawrence has made the Jaguars relevant since his arrival. They won the AFC South and pulled off the third-largest comeback in playoff history with a 31-30 victory over the Los Angeles Chargers in the AFC Wild Card round in his second season.

The Jaguars looked like a top team in the AFC last season with a 6-2 record through eight games. They wound up going 3-6 after their Week 9 bye, including losing five of their final six games to miss the playoffs.