Vladimir Guerrero Jr. Landing Spots amid MLB Trade Rumors, Blue Jays' Slow Start
All is not well with the Toronto Blue Jays. So much so, in fact, that it's apparently not too early to wonder if Vladimir Guerrero Jr. could be on the move this summer.
As Mark Feinsand of MLB.com wrote on Monday, it "seems inconceivable" that Toronto would move either Guerrero or fellow lineup stalwart Bo Bichette. But at least one American League executive thinks a deal of either must not be ruled out.
"I don't think they're opposed to it," the executive told Feinsand. "They've talked to teams about it. The asks were ridiculous, but I think they're going to try to retool a lot, and using those guys to get pieces may be the way to do it."
Though the Blue Jays made the postseason three times between 2020 and 2023, they failed to win a single playoff game. What's more, not one of those teams really lived up to its supposedly high ceiling. With this year's team now 21-26 and in last place in the AL East, even the floor seems to be getting lower.
But even if such things make it fair game to speculate on potential landing spots for Guerrero, we must first have an honest discussion about his trade value.
What Is Guerrero's Trade Value?
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On one hand, there's Guerrero the purported MLB superstar.
This is the guy who landed on the cover of MLB The Show after collecting three All-Star nods, a Gold Glove and a Home Run Derby title in his first five seasons, not to mention a share of the league lead for homers with 48 in 2021.
On the other hand, there's Guerrero as he actually is.
Though his bat has mostly remained functional since that epic 2021 season, we're talking a good-not-great .798 OPS and 7.0 rWAR. The latter ties him for 66th among all position players, which isn't the best look in light of his $19.9 million salary.
Though he's only 25 and under club control through 2025, Baseball Trade Values puts Guerrero's surplus value—i.e., the difference between a player's salary and his value on the field—at just $8.4 million. For perspective, the No. 1 prospect in MLB (Jackson Holliday) is seen as having $88.8 million in surplus value.
Still, what Feinsand's source said about the "ridiculous" ask the Blue Jays were making for Guerrero isn't a surprise. They're not that bad, after all, and he won't be a free agent until after next season. They're in a position to hold out for an overpay.
It's also not difficult to imagine a team overpaying for Guerrero. His swing is still dangerous, whether you're looking at his 99th percentile hard-hit rate or his raw bat speed. His flaw is how often he fails to square up pitches, but perhaps the right hitting coach could fix that.
Let's assume that, even if coughing up cash was part of the deal, Toronto wouldn't part with its slugging first baseman without getting at least one top-100 type back. This way, we can look at 10 hypothetical suitors and even pitch trades for the five teams that fit Guerrero best.
All farm system and prospect rankings are courtesy of B/R's Joel Reuter.
10-6: Padres, Yankees, Rangers, Royals, Cubs
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10. San Diego Padres
Record: 25-26, 2nd in NL West
Current First Baseman: Jake Cronenworth
I might as well be contractually obligated to mention the Padres every time a star player comes up in trade rumors. But unless Xander Bogaerts' shoulder injury proves to be a serious one, this infield is as full as infields get.
9. New York Yankees
Record: 33-17, 1st in AL East
Current First Baseman: Anthony Rizzo
Rizzo has been running hot and cold all year, so it's possible to squint and see Guerrero in pinstripes if Rizzo just plain goes cold. But even then, dealing with an AL East rival presumably wouldn't be Toronto's ideal scenario.
8. Texas Rangers
Record: 24-25, 2nd in AL West
Current First Baseman: Nathaniel Lowe
The defending champs could use Guerrero at designated hitter, where they've gotten just a .594 OPS. But that was also where they were playing rookie Wyatt Langford before he strained his hamstring. Being patient with him is arguably their best play.
7. Kansas City Royals
Record: 31-19, 2nd in AL Central
Current First Baseman: Vinnie Pasquantino
The Royals are having a fun year, but they need another impact bat to help support Bobby Witt Jr. and Salvador Perez. Guerrero would be perfect...so it's too bad that the Royals lack even one top-100 prospect with which to barter.
6. Chicago Cubs
Record: 27-22, 2nd in NL Central
Current First Baseman: Michael Busch
The Cubs absolutely have the prospect base to go after Guerrero, and he would stabilize the revolving door they've had at the DH spot. But relative to, say, upgrading the bullpen, bolstering the offense doesn't necessarily need be a top priority for these Cubs.
5. Houston Astros
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Record: 22-27, 3rd in AL West
Current First Baseman: Jon Singleton
One of the foremost right-handed sluggers in MLB taking regular aim at the Crawford Boxes sure sounds like a fun time.
And right now, the Astros have every reason to be daydreaming about making this exact scenario come true via a Guerrero trade. They've gotten just a .535 OPS and five home runs from their first basemen.
Ideally, everything will be hunky-dory as soon as 2020 AL MVP José Abreu rejoins the team (potentially on Friday) after a stint in the Florida Complex League, which was meant to get his swing right after he went just 7-for-71 in 22 games to start the year.
Nobody should be holding their breath, though. Good intentions aside, Abreu is 37 years old and the owner of a .632 OPS in 163 games as an Astro.
Trade Proposal: Houston Astros get 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.; Toronto Blue Jays get OF Jacob Melton (Astros No. 1, MLB No. 77), cash
This trade works fine on paper, but anything short of a one-for-one swap of Abreu for Guerrero would make the Astros' already iffy luxury-tax standing even worse. At $255.9 million, their luxury-tax payroll is only $1.1 million shy of the first surcharge threshold.
4. Minnesota Twins
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Record: 25-23, 3rd in AL Central
Current First Baseman: Carlos Santana
We're now into Year 5 of the twilight of Santana's career, and it's not getting any prettier.
His 6.8 walk percentage is the lowest of his career, and his OBP has sunk accordingly to .277. Meanwhile, neither his seven homers nor his contact metrics jump off the page.
The Twins offense in general has been hit or miss. Most of the hits happened as they were winning 17 out of 20 between April 22 and May 12, a span in which they averaged 6.4 runs. Otherwise, their average output is only 3.2 runs.
Guerrero could help them just on these accounts, and it doesn't hurt that he knows AL East pitchers. To the tune of a 17-27 record, the division has been a thorn in Minnesota's side across the last two seasons.
Trade Proposal: Minnesota Twins get 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.; Toronto Blue Jays get OF Gabriel Gonzalez (Twins No. 4, MLB No. 84), cash
This deal also works on paper, but the Twins are another team that would be hard-pressed to make the money work. Cutting payroll for 2024 was very much by design and very much necessary, so them adding even a portion of a $19.9 million salary may be a reach.
3. Cleveland Guardians
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Record: 32-17, 1st in AL Central
Current First Baseman: Josh Naylor
To be clear, Naylor is not the problem here.
The 26-year-old is ostensibly having a breakout season, but his rise truly began over a year ago. Since May 12, 2023, he is a .314 hitter with a better wRC+ than Bryce Harper.
But while the Guardians are A-OK with Naylor at first base, they don't have a regular for a DH spot that's produced a modest .734 OPS.
That's where Guerrero could help, and his presence could only help the Guardians stave off more widespread offensive regression. They're among the league leaders with an average of 4.9 runs per game, but with only a .236 average and .310 on-base percentage.
Trade Proposal: Cleveland Guardians get 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.; Toronto Blue Jays get 1B Kyle Manzardo (Guardians No. 2, MLB No. 60), cash
This deal would equip the Blue Jays with a ready-made replacement for Guerrero, but one can also see that as a reason for Cleveland not to do it. Especially knowing, of course, that Guerrero is making about $19 million more than Manzardo just for this season.
2. San Francisco Giants
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Record: 23-26, T-3rd in NL West
Current First Baseman: LaMonte Wade Jr.
To be fair, the Giants are beginning to come around both offensively and in general. They've won eight out of their last 13, averaging 5.5 runs in the process.
To be even fairer, Wade is the least of their worries. The lefty swinger is strictly a platoon hitter against right-handed pitching, but that's OK when you're getting on base at a .457 clip in said platoon role.
Wade can play the outfield in addition to first base, however, and that's where the Giants are a man down following Jung Hoo Lee's season-ending shoulder surgery.
Plus, any team that would challenge the Los Angeles Dodgers needs to be as strong on offense as possible. To this end, re-teaming Guerrero with Matt Chapman along with Wade, Jorge Soler and (when healthy) Michael Conforto would at least help close the gap.
Trade Proposal: San Francisco Giants get 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.; Toronto Blue Jays get 1B Bryce Eldridge (Giants No. 2, MLB No. 70), cash
Eldridge is only 19 and at Single-A, so he's not MLB-ready like Manzardo is. This proposal is nonetheless similar conceptually to that one. The bigger issue is the Giants' proximity to the second luxury-tax threshold at $253.9 million, but they're also in too deep to get cheap now.
1. Seattle Mariners
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Record: 27-22, 1st in AL West
Current First Baseman: Ty France
First place in the AL West is where the Mariners want to be, and nobody can deny that their pitching staff is a championship-caliber one.
As for their offense, well, not so much. It's scoring only 3.8 runs per game. That's the same rate at which the Miami Marlins are scoring.
With his OPS now at .692 dating back to the 2022 All-Star break, Ty France is steadily wearing out his welcome at first base. Mitch Garver is still new at DH, but nonetheless also testing Seattle's patience with a .625 OPS.
That makes two potential fits for Guerrero in Seattle, and let's not overlook that the Mariners need his bat-to-ball skill just as much as his power. They're striking out at a 27.9 percent clip, whereas he's only at 19.4 percent.
Trade Proposal: Seattle Mariners get 1B Vladimir Guerrero Jr.; Toronto Blue Jays get OF Lazaro Montes (Mariners No. 4, MLB No. 52), cash
Like Eldridge, Montes is only 19 and has yet to advance past Single-A. He nonetheless has helium by way of a .993 OPS in 162 career minor league games, and his general offensive profile has drawn comparisons to Yordan Álvarez.
Basically, this deal would see Seattle and Toronto swap legit long-term upside for much-needed short-term impact. And unlike other teams we've discussed, the Mariners are operating with neither a reduced payroll nor luxury-tax limitations.
Stats courtesy of Baseball Reference, FanGraphs and Baseball Savant.
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