Early Projections for NFL Playoff Matchups as 2024 OTAs Get Underway
In every NFL season since 2020, at least six teams that didn't make the playoffs the year before made the postseason.
So, if you're ready to pencil in mostly the same playoff bracket from the previous campaign, think again. Prepare for a shake-up in the postseason picture.
Following our post-schedule-release win-loss projections, let's examine how the postseason bracket could look in 2024. We'll highlight projected No. 1 seeds in both conferences and the teams in each Wild Card Round matchup.
Who's in and which playoff teams from last year will fall out of contention in the upcoming campaign?
AFC: No. 1 Seed Houston Texans
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The Houston Texans have one of the league's most complete teams and their final record will reflect that.
In 2023, the Texans finished 13th in scoring and 11th in points allowed, and they made notable additions on both sides of the ball.
Houston acquired a couple of Pro Bowl-caliber playmakers, wide receiver Stefon Diggs and running back Joe Mixon, via trades.
Quarterback C.J. Stroud won 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year and could be in the discussion for league MVP in 2024. Along with Diggs, he'll have Nico Collins and Tank Dell, who emerged as a budding receiver duo last season.
The Texans bolstered their front seven, signing four-time Pro Bowl edge-rusher Danielle Hunter, defensive lineman Denico Autry and linebacker Azeez Al-Shaair, who played under head coach DeMeco Ryans when he served as the San Francisco 49ers defensive coordinator.
The Texans also drafted second-round cornerback Kamari Lassiter, who could challenge Jeff Okudah for the starting job opposite Derek Stingley Jr.
Houston wins 12 games to tie its single-season franchise record and claims the AFC's No. 1 seed.
AFC: No. 2 Seed Cincinnati Bengals vs. No. 7 Seed Pittsburgh Steelers
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The Cincinnati Bengals return to the playoff scene after barely missing the cut with a 9-8 record last season.
Of course, the Bengals need quarterback Joe Burrow to stay healthy for most of the term to finish in this spot. If he does, Cincinnati has a good shot at winning the AFC North.
Burrow has played 16 games in two out of his four campaigns, and Cincinnati won the division in both of those years.
The Bengals could host a familiar foe in the AFC's Wild Card Round of the playoffs.
Despite an offensive transition with a new play-caller, Arthur Smith, starting quarterback, Russell Wilson, and two rookies, Troy Fautanu and Zach Frazier, who could start on the offensive line, the Pittsburgh Steelers squeak into the playoffs again as the No. 7 seed with a 10-7 record.
Wilson is a clear upgrade over Kenny Pickett, whom the Steelers traded to the Philadelphia Eagles.
Smith went 7-10 in all three of his seasons as the Atlanta Falcons head coach, but in an offensive coordinator role, he fielded two top-10 scoring units with the Tennessee Titans.
Smith doesn't have Derrick Henry in Pittsburgh, but Najee Harris and Jaylen Warren could be one of the league's most productive running back tandems in 2024.
A Bengals-Steelers matchup could be a clash of styles between Cincinnati's high-powered aerial attack, which features Burrow throwing to wideouts Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins, and Pittsburgh's ground game.
AFC: No. 3 Seed Kansas City Chiefs vs. No. 6 Seed New York Jets
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The Kansas City Chiefs finished as the No. 3 seed and won Super Bowl 58 last season. So, Kansas City may not value home-field advantage in the playoffs as much as other teams.
If the Chiefs need to rest veterans like Travis Kelce in preparation for a playoff run, they may do that, which makes them prone to upsets.
Regardless of the Chiefs' seed in the AFC, they're capable of winning it all even with their uncertainty about wide receiver Rashee Rice's availability.
According to NFL insider James Palmer, the Chiefs expect the league to suspend Rice for his involvement in a car accident in Dallas. If Rice misses time, Marquise Brown could post career numbers with the league's best quarterback under center in Kansas City. Rookie first-round wideout Xavier Worthy may have a few highlight performances as well.
The Chiefs' pathway to a third consecutive title may start at home against the New York Jets.
Even at 40 years old, coming off a torn Achilles, Aaron Rodgers' return should propel the Jets to a double-digit-win season.
According to SNY's Connor Hughes, the Jets attempted to replace offensive coordinator Nathaniel Hackett this offseason. But Rodgers will have enough pocket protection and playmakers to overcome questionable play-calling.
The Jets signed left tackle Tyron Smith, acquired right tackle Morgan Moses from the Baltimore Ravens and drafted Olu Fashanu in the first round of the 2024 draft.
With adequate protection, Rodgers could build a rapport with wideouts Garrett Wilson, Mike Williams and rookie third-rounder Malachi Corley. On the ground, running back Breece Hall can also benefit from the Jets' improved offensive line.
The Chiefs would draw a tough matchup with a Jets squad that could make the playoffs for the first time since 2010.
AFC: No. 4 Seed Miami Dolphins vs. No. 5 Seed Baltimore Ravens
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In the most intriguing AFC Wild Card matchup, the Miami Dolphins will host Baltimore Ravens. Both teams remain in the playoff bracket, but this year, the Dolphins will win their division and the Ravens get in as a wild-card team.
The Dolphins' offensive speed will overwhelm most of their opponents again in the upcoming season.
Miami finished the 2023 campaign with the second-highest-scoring offense.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa threw for a league-leading 4,624 yards, 29 touchdowns and 14 interceptions. Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle racked up 2,813 receiving yards combined. Behind 1,000-plus-yard rusher Raheem Mostert, De'Von Achane accumulated 997 yards and 11 touchdowns from scrimmage.
This offseason, the Dolphins signed wideout Odell Beckham Jr. and drafted running back Jaylen Wright, who has 4.38-second speed.
If Jaelan Phillips and Bradley Chubb return from season-ending injuries to help generate a pass rush or rookie first-rounder Chop Robinson makes an immediate impact off the edge, the Dolphins should fare a lot better than they did in their last playoff outing against the Kansas City Chiefs.
The Ravens could slow down the Dolphins with ball control, though.
They signed Derrick Henry, who could be the focal point of the offense if the Ravens' unsettled offensive line struggles to protect a much slimmer Lamar Jackson in the pocket.
This matchup would also be a clash of different styles with the Dolphins and Ravens trying to play at their respective pace.
NFC: No. 1 Seed Detroit Lions
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Last season, the Detroit Lions continued to ascend under head coach Dan Campbell with an appearance in the NFC Championship Game.
This year, the Lions will claim the NFC's No. 1 seed with the league's best record (13-4).
Detroit mostly kept its offensive core intact and signed Kevin Zeitler to fill a void at guard. Wideout Jameson Williams could take on a bigger role following Josh Reynolds' departure in free agency.
Ben Johnson has fielded a top-five scoring offense in two years as the team's offensive play-caller.
Detroit should field a much-improved defense, specifically in the secondary with Carlton Davis and rookies Terrion Arnold and Ennis Rakestraw Jr. there to strengthen the cornerback group.
The Lions' momentum and their offseason additions will afford them a first-round bye.
NFC: No. 2 Seed Philadelphia Eagles vs. No. 7 Seed Los Angeles Rams
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The Philadelphia Eagles will bounce back from their free fall at the end of the 2023 season to claim the NFC East title and No. 2 seed.
Last year, quarterback Jalen Hurts regressed under first-time pro play-caller Brian Johnson, but Kellen Moore should be able to help him rebound from a disappointing season. In four out of five years as a play-caller, Moore has fielded a top-nine passing offense in yards or touchdowns.
If the Eagles offensive line loses its push without center Jason Kelce, running back Saquon Barkley could still make a significant impact on the ground. Over the last two years, he rushed for 2,274 yards and scored 16 touchdowns, averaging 4.2 yards per carry behind subpar offensive lines with the New York Giants.
Defensive coordinator Vic Fangio has a respectable pro play-calling resume that spans beyond two decades.
Moreover, Philadelphia signed linebacker Devin White and defensive back C.J. Gardner-Johnson, acquired edge-rusher Bryce Huff and drafted cornerbacks Quinyon Mitchell and Cooper DeJean to strengthen its defense.
In this matchup, Philadelphia faces the Los Angeles Rams, who exceeded expectations as a surprise playoff team last season.
The Rams finished the 2023 campaign with the eighth-ranked scoring offense thanks in part to the emergence of running back Kyren Williams and wide receiver Puka Nacua, who broke rookie receiving records.
When quarterback Matthew Stafford is healthy, the Rams can outscore most teams in the league. The team could use rookie third-round running back Blake Corum to spell Williams out of the backfield, which would add another wrinkle to a potent attack.
Los Angeles will have to make adjustments following the loss of defensive coordinator Raheem Morris, who's the Atlanta Falcons head coach, and three-time Defensive Player of the Year Aaron Donald, who retired this offseason.
Yet Byron Young, Kobie Turner and rookie first-rounder Jared Verse could be a pass-rushing trio to watch in the trenches.
This matchup could go either way.
NFC: No. 3 Seed San Francisco 49ers vs. No. 6 Seed Chicago Bears
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The San Francisco 49ers won't let a Super Bowl loss hang over their heads.
Up to this point, the 49ers have kept their offensive personnel from last year intact. They replaced Arik Armstead with Maliek Collins and signed Leonard Floyd, which is a net gain for the defensive front.
Like the Kansas City Chiefs in the AFC, the 49ers don't need to clinch the No. 1 seed to make a deep playoff run. They have appeared in three consecutive NFC Championship Games as a No. 6 seed in 2021, No. 2 seed in 2022 and No. 1 seed in 2023.
This year, the 49ers could see the upstart Chicago Bears in the NFC's Wild Card Round.
Rookie quarterback Caleb Williams has injected excitement into the Bears franchise, and he may bring hope as well.
Williams can quickly transition from college to the pros with his ability to make throws all over the field and manipulate the pocket, helping his pass-catchers buy time to separate from defenders.
The Bears have set up Williams with a quality supporting cast. They signed dynamic running back D'Andre Swift, who has hauled in 195 passes for 1,412 yards and eight touchdowns, acquired six-time Pro Bowl wideout Keenan Allen and drafted Rome Odunze, who led the collegiate ranks in receiving yards last year.
By the way, wideout DJ Moore and tight end Cole Kmet both recorded career highs in multiple receiving categories last season.
Williams will also have the support of a stingy defense that gave up an average of 15.5 points per game in its last six outings.
In the NFC Wild Card Round, the 49ers could be looking at a younger version of their team in terms of offensive and defensive roster balance.
NFC: No. 4 Seed Atlanta Falcons vs. No. 5 Seed Green Bay Packers
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The Atlanta Falcons will end the Tampa Bay Buccaneers' three-year reign as NFC South champions.
Though Kirk Cousins may not love his situation with rookie first-rounder Michael Penix Jr. behind him on the depth chart, he's capable of posting top-10 numbers in multiple passing categories.
Cousins recorded Pro Bowl-worthy numbers under former Sean McVay assistant Kevin O'Connell in his last two years with the Minnesota Vikings. He'll work with offensive play-caller Zac Robinson, who's another assistant from McVay's coaching tree.
Cousins should be able to rack up yards and touchdowns with wideouts Drake London and Darnell Mooney and tight end Kyle Pitts in the passing game. He can also throw short or hand off to running back Bijan Robinson.
The Falcons passed up on a top defensive prospect in the first round of the 2024 draft, but head coach Raheem Morris has seen his former Los Angeles Rams team reach the playoffs (and win a Super Bowl) with a middling defense and a top-nine offense in two of the last three years. Atlanta may have similar defensive and offensive rankings this year with the same result.
This projection matches the Falcons up against a rising Green Bay Packers squad that upset the Dallas Cowboys in the NFC Wild Card Round last year.
Jordan Love looks like a franchise quarterback who will continue to improve with more experience.
Love has only started in 18 career games, and he could be in the discussion as one of the league's top 10 quarterbacks by the end of the 2024 season.
Green Bay selected tackle Jordan Morgan in the first round of the 2024 draft to shore up its offensive line, which bodes well for Love.
With adequate protection, Love can spread the ball around among a budding pass-catching group, which features wide receivers Christian Watson, Jayden Reed, Romeo Doubs and Dontayvion Wicks and tight ends Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft.
The Packers don't have to be heavily reliant on Love's arm, though. On the ground, running backs Josh Jacobs, AJ Dillon and MarShawn Lloyd can balance the offense with a mix of physicality and speed.
A Falcons-Packers matchup could be a treat for anyone who enjoys two offenses trading scoring drives in a postseason battle.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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