Ranking Potential First-Time MVP Candidates for the 2024 NFL Season
In order to win NFL MVP, a player must produce at a high level on one of the best teams, though as recent history shows, quarterbacks usually get the honor.
Every year since 2013, a quarterback has won league MVP. Running back Adrian Peterson was the last skill player to win the award. A wide receiver has never earned the achievement.
Even though quarterbacks have dominated the MVP discussion, elite skill players deserve mention as viable candidates and rookie signal-callers have a chance to do something only one other award-winner has accomplished in NFL history.
With that in mind, we ranked our top-10 potential first-time MVP candidates for the 2024 season.
10. Caleb Williams, QB, Chicago Bears
1 of 10
Coming in at No. 10, Caleb Williams is a long-shot candidate, but he could be the first rookie to win the award since late Hall of Famer Jim Brown in 1957.
The Chicago Bears selected Williams with the No. 1 overall pick, and he's in an ideal situation for a young quarterback.
The Bears have continuity across their offensive line with four probable starters from the previous year. Newcomers Coleman Shelton and Ryan Bates will likely battle for the starting job at center.
Williams also has arguably one of the top wide receiver trios in the league.
DJ Moore is coming off his most productive campaign. Six-time Pro Bowler Keenan Allen recorded career highs in catches (108) and receiving yards per game (95.6) in 2023. Rookie first-rounder Rome Odunze led the FBS in total receiving yards (1,640) last year.
Furthermore, the Bears offense should have plenty of opportunities to score points.
Chicago's defense allowed an average of 15.5 points in its last six outings, which included matchups against the Detroit Lions' and Green Bay Packers' top-12 scoring offenses.
Perhaps the club adds a rotational pass-rusher to replace Yannick Ngakoue and Justin Jones who logged 8.5 sacks combined last year.
If Williams clicks with his playmakers, the Bears could break their 10-game losing streak to the Packers and knock the Lions off the NFC North mountaintop to take control of the division, which would bolster his candidacy for MVP.
As a rookie, C.J. Stroud tied for eighth in MVP voting, throwing for 4,108 yards, 23 touchdowns and five interceptions.
One can make a case that Williams has a more talented offensive group than Stroud had last year.
9. Tyreek Hill, WR, Miami Dolphins
2 of 10
As another long-shot candidate, Tyreek Hill could be the first wide receiver to win league MVP, though he's obviously more proven than rookie quarterback Caleb Williams.
Quarterback Tua Tagovailoa's passing numbers have gone on the rise since the Miami Dolphins acquired Hill from the Kansas City Chiefs during the 2022 offseason.
For the 2022 term, Tagovailoa led the league in passing touchdown rate (6.3 percent) and passer rating (105.5) among other advanced metric passing categories. Last year, he led the NFL in total passing yards (4,624) in a Pro Bowl year.
Hill, who led the league in receiving yards, receiving yards per game and tied Mike Evans for most touchdown receptions (13) for the 2023 campaign, finished sixth in MVP voting while Tagovailoa didn't crack the top 10.
Last year, the Dolphins fielded the No. 1 aerial attack in yards and went 9-0 when Hill racked up 99 or more receiving yards in a game.
Tagovailoa is the point guard of Miami's passing offense, but Hill's production clearly moves the needle for the team's bottom-line results.
If Hill captures the receiving triple crown for receptions, yards and touchdowns, he'll likely get more votes (as he did last year) than Tagovailoa for MVP and potentially finish as one of the top candidates for the award.
8. Jordan Love, QB, Green Bay Packers
3 of 10
Jordan Love went from an unknown commodity to an ascending quarterback with a bright future within a year.
Like Jalen Hurts in 2022, Love could garner MVP buzz in his second year as a full-time starting signal-caller.
Last year, Love threw for 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns and 11 interceptions on a Green Bay Packers team that won a road playoff game.
If the Packers build on a solid 2023 campaign, Love will likely be the driving force behind a double-digit win season.
Though Green Bay bolstered its running back group, signing Josh Jacobs, re-signing AJ Dillon and selecting MarShawn Lloyd in the third round of the 2024 draft, Love could post career passing numbers with a young, upstart pass-catching group.
In 2023, Green Bay's aerial attack finished third in touchdowns and 12th in yards with four rookies, Jayden Reed, Dontayvion Wicks, Luke Musgrave and Tucker Kraft all heavily involved in the passing game. By the way, lead wideout Christian Watson missed eight games because of hamstring injuries.
This year, Love has a full season of starting experience under his belt and an established rapport with a handful of playmakers who may also see growth early in their careers.
If the Packers win the NFC North title, Love will probably get MVP votes as the centerpiece of an ascending offense.
7. Christian McCaffrey, RB, San Francisco 49ers
4 of 10
The San Francisco 49ers have won back-to-back division titles with at least 12 wins in 2022 and 2023. Last year, they had two MVP candidates, Christian McCaffrey and Brock Purdy.
At No. 7, McCaffrey is the highest-ranked skill player on this list because he's clearly the best at his position when healthy.
In 2023, McCaffrey rushed for a league-leading 1,459 yards and 14 touchdowns. Going back to the 2022 term, including the postseason, the 49ers are 10-1 when he rushes for 100-plus yards.
Since San Francisco acquired McCaffrey from the Carolina Panthers in 2022, he has yet to miss a game due to injury.
However, because of McCaffrey's injury history between 2020 and 2021, you wonder if he'll be able to stay available for another full season with a heavy workload, which knocks him down a few spots in these rankings. Still, he's the engine of the 49ers offense.
Last season, San Francisco finished with the fewest pass attempts while it ranked eighth in total carries with McCaffrey second leaguewide in rush attempts (272).
6. Jared Goff, QB, Detroit Lions
5 of 10
In a career rebirth with the Detroit Lions, Jared Goff has risen from the mid-tier group of quarterbacks to a top-10 player at the position.
Between 2022 and 2023, Goff threw for 9,013 yards, 59 touchdowns, and 19 interceptions. Meanwhile, Detroit fielded a top-eight passing offense in both campaigns, finishing second last year.
Ben Johnson turned down head-coaching opportunities to remain as the Lions offensive coordinator for a third term, which bodes well for Goff.
In order to capture the MVP award, Goff will likely need to lead the league in multiple passing categories because he doesn't generate notable production as a ball-carrier, which hurts his candidacy when matched up against dynamic signal-callers.
The Lions have a balanced offense that featured top-five passing and rushing attacks last year. Detroit isn't heavily dependent on Goff throwing downfield to win games, which is why he's outside the top five in these rankings.
Nonetheless, Goff has a better chance of winning the award than the top skill players and a couple of the less experienced top quarterbacks.
5. Dak Prescott, QB, Dallas Cowboys
6 of 10
The Dallas Cowboys have approached this offseason as if they expect Dak Prescott to carry the offense in his contract year.
The Cowboys didn't sign one of several notable running backs availble in free agency nor did they draft one. Instead, the club brought back Ezekiel Elliott, who recorded a career-low 3.5 yards per carry with the New England Patriots last season.
Elliot is going into his age-29 term with 2,065 carries of mileage on his legs. Career backups Rico Dowdle and Royce Freeman and undersized tailback Deuce Vaughn will likely push for leftover touches in a backfield committee.
In what may be a pass-heavy offense, Prescott could post career numbers throwing to All-Pro wide receiver CeeDee Lamb, savvy veteran wideout Brandin Cooks and Pro Bowl tight end Jake Ferguson.
Last year, Prescott finished second in MVP voting, throwing for 4,516 yards, a league-leading 36 touchdowns and nine interceptions. With his market value in 2025 to be determined, he has the extra motivation to put up gaudier passing numbers this year.
On the other hand, Prescott threw interceptions at an alarming rate in the second half of the 2022 campaign, which gives reason to be cautious about Dallas' potentially pass-heavy offensive attack.
Prescott is ranked one spot higher than Jared Goff because the Cowboys offense will be more dependent on him than the Detroit Lions offense will be on Goff.
4. Jalen Hurts, QB, Philadelphia Eagles
7 of 10
Don't sell all of your Jalen Hurts stock following his year of regression in 2023.
Last season, Brian Johnson replaced former Philadelphia Eagles offensive coordinator Shane Steichen, who became the Indianapolis Colts head coach.
The Eagles' play-calling transition had an adverse impact on Hurts' production, but he still earned a Pro Bowl nod as a major part of the offense, accounting for 38 touchdowns passing and rushing combined.
This offseason, Philadelphia hired offensive coordinator Kellen Moore. His resume provides hope for anyone who believes Hurts can perform at an MVP level similar to his 2022 campaign when he finished second in votes.
As an offensive coordinator, Moore has fielded a top-nine passing attack in yards or touchdowns in four of five seasons.
Even though Moore's Los Angeles Chargers offense struggled for stretches and lost quarterback Justin Herbert for four games last year, the club still finished 13th in passing yards with the third-most pass attempts.
Under Moore, Hurts could have a high volume of pass attempts with game plans geared toward getting the ball to wideouts A.J Brown and DeVonta Smith, who both signed extensions this offseason, and tight end Dallas Goedert.
Even with the addition of running back Saquon Barkley, expect the Eagles to lean on Hurts to show his worth after they signed him to a five-year, $255 million extension last offseason.
Based on Moore's play-calling results, he should be able to optimize Hurts' skill set in an offense loaded with playmakers.
3. Brock Purdy, QB, San Francisco 49ers
8 of 10
Brock Purdy finished behind running back Christian McCaffrey in MVP voting last year, but he may be asked to do a little more in the upcoming season.
The 49ers have played in the NFC Championship Game in each of the last three years. After coming up short against the Kansas City Chiefs for the Lombardi Trophy, this team will likely head into the 2024 season thinking it's Super Bowl or bust.
With that in mind, head coach Kyle Shanahan has no reason to run McCaffrey into the ground for 17 games.
McCaffrey is entering his age-28 term after logging 272 carries last season. Remember, he missed 23 games because of injuries between 2020 and 2021 with the Carolina Panthers.
San Francisco needs McCaffrey healthy for the playoffs. Don't be surprised if Shanahan lightens his workload and turns the offense over to Purdy a lot more in 2024.
By now, Shanahan should be able to trust Purdy in a high-volume passing attack.
In 25 games (21 starts), Purdy has thrown for 44 touchdowns and 15 interceptions with a 68.7 percent completion rate. Last year, he led the league in passing touchdown rate (seven percent), passer rating (113) and QBR (72.8).
If the 49ers agree to an extension with wideout Brandon Aiyuk to keep their offensive core intact, Purdy could have a standout year.
As an offensive play-caller, Shanahan has already coached one league MVP, now-retired quarterback Matt Ryan, in 2016 with the Atlanta Falcons.
2. Joe Burrow, QB, Cincinnati Bengals
9 of 10
We have no doubt that Joe Burrow is the most valuable player in the Cincinnati Bengals offense, and that's why he's one spot above Brock Purdy.
When Burrow is healthy, Cincinnati is in the Super Bowl discussion with a high-powered aerial attack.
Between 2021 and 2022, Burrow threw for 69 touchdowns and 26 interceptions. In both campaigns, the Bengals fielded a top-seven passing offense in yards and touchdowns.
In 2022, Burrow finished fourth in MVP voting.
Ja'Marr Chase and Tee Higgins will continue to be one of the league's best wide receiver duos if the latter plays out the year with the Bengals on the franchise tag.
Cincinnati also signed tight end Mike Gesicki, who was underutilized in the passing game with the New England Patriots and Miami Dolphins over the previous two seasons.
Burrow has the playmakers to post MVP-worthy passing numbers. He just needs to stay healthy. In four campaigns, Burrow has missed 13 games (seven last year) because of injuries.
Ultimately, Burrow's injury history kept him out of the No. 1 spot.
1. C.J. Stroud, QB, Houston Texans
10 of 10
This isn't a prisoner-of-moment pick. If you were impressed with C.J. Stroud's rookie campaign, look out for his potential encore MVP performance.
Last year, the Houston Texans won the AFC South title, and they added All-Pro wide receiver Stefon Diggs and Pro Bowl running back Joe Mixon.
Diggs has racked up 1,130-plus receiving yards in five consecutive campaigns. Mixon is a reliable pass-catcher out of the backfield, recording 283 receptions for 2,139 yards and 13 touchdowns in seven seasons.
Diggs joins a high-level pass-catching group that includes Nico Collins, who caught 80 passes for 1,297 yards and eight touchdowns last year, Tank Dell, who was on track to eclipse 1,000 receiving yards before an ankle injury derailed his rookie season, and tight end Dalton Schultz. Texans owner Cal McNair expects Dell to make a "full recovery" from a gunshot wound.
With the addition of Diggs, Stroud could easily top his 2023 Offensive Rookie of the Year totals in passing yards (4,108) and touchdowns (23).
In 2023, the Texans were the only playoff team in their division, and they should be favored to win it again with Stroud leading the way.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
.jpg?w=480 "Vikings Draft Football")
.png?w=600 "Ranking KD Trade Ideas, Landing Spots 📍")
