Jared Goff and the NFL's Riskiest QB Contracts of the Last 10 Years
The NFL is a quarterback-driven league. It's no accident that the league's newest dynasty in Kansas City is led by the NFL's best quarterback. Teams will do just about anything to get their hands on a high-end signal-caller. Once they have one, they will do just about anything to keep them. As a result, salaries at the position have skyrocketed over the last decade—four quarterbacks in the league have contracts averaging in excess of $50 million per season.
In fact, make that five—this week, the Detroit Lions signed Jared Goff to a four-year, $212 million extension that includes a whopping $170 million in guarantees. No one will argue that Goff deserved a raise after coming one game from his second Super Bowl appearance. But he's also not on the level of Mahomes or Lamar Jackson.
And that's where the problem comes in.
NFL teams are becoming more and more willing to pay very good quarterbacks like great ones. To pay good quarterbacks like very good ones. Or to convince themselves that flawed or average quarterbacks can be franchise guys. Can anchor an offense.
It can be a massive risk. Every dollar spent under center is one that can't be spent on offensive linemen, wide receivers or on defense. Sign the wrong quarterback to a massive deal, and it can set a franchise back years.
Now, there's still a chance that some of the quarterbacks listed here will turn out to be worth their paycheck—if Goff wins a Super Bowl, no one will care about his salary. But the writing is already on the wall that some of these players aren't ever going to live up to their salary—and some have already gone down in the annals of NFL history as terrible decisions.
Contract data courtesy of Over the Cap.
Jared Goff, Detroit Lions (2024)
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The Contract: Four years, $212 million, $170 million guaranteed
After last season's NFC Championship Game run, the Detroit Lions have doled out a trio of massive contracts to three players—wide receiver Amon-Ra St. Brown, offensive tackle Penei Sewell and now quarterback Jared Goff.
Goff is coming off one of the best seasons of his career—the 29-year-old completed a career-high 67.3 percent of his passes for 4,575 yards and 30 scores. Now, the eight-year veteran is the second-highest-paid quarterback in the league, trailing only Joe Burrow of the Cincinnati Bengals.
While speaking to reporters, Detroit general manager Brad Holmes made it clear that the Lions have always had confidence that Goff was the team's long-term answer at quarterback.
"I've always had belief in Jared," Holmes said. "You guys have always heard me. I don't know what more needs to be said from a leadership or performance standpoint, or what more he needs to do in that regard. But, in terms of the belief, as always, I think I said this to you guys before, is that he got drafted in '16 and he wasn't the full-time starter, but '17 was his first year as a full-time starter and he made the playoffs. Got exited versus the Falcons that year, but the second year as a full-time starter, he went to a Super Bowl.
"And what I didn't understand, I didn't understand why his career was defined after he went to a Super Bowl a second year as a full-time starter. And so, then when he came to us, I always had belief. So, him doing what he did this past year or even the year before, it's not a surprise to us."
Goff is a very good quarterback who has played in a Super Bowl and has a 66-50-1 record as a starter. But few would call him a great quarterback, and with so few players taking up such a massive percentage of Detroit's cap, the Lions are going to have to get creative with roster construction in future seasons.
Deshaun Watson, Cleveland Browns (2022)
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The Contract: Five years, $230 million, $230 million guaranteed
To call Deshuan Watson's contract with the Cleveland Browns "risky" is an understatement. It was unprecedented. Not only did the Browns give up a massive amount of draft capital to obtain Watson from the Houston Texans (six draft picks, including three first-rounders), but then the team did something that has not happened before or since in the NFL.
Cleveland guaranteed every dime of Watson's $230 million contract.
The results of that massive gamble have been less than impressive—Watson is 8-4 as Cleveland's starter, but the issue is he's missed 22 of the team's 34 games in the last two seasons.
While speaking to reporters, general manger Andrew Berry said the Browns expect a healthy Watson in 2024—and to finally start getting the return they expected on their titanic investment.
"We feel very good about the transition. He is in a good spot mentally and physically," Berry said. "Obviously, he's been rehabbing the shoulder injury, but he is well on his way there and in a really strong spot. I think he's a lot more comfortable within the organization. You know, we have a core group of guys on offense that have now played together for a number of years. We do expect to hit the ground running on that side of the ball, and I know he is very excited about returning to the playing field and getting over this injury. We do have high expectations for him and the offense this season."
It's simple really—if Watson doesn't stay healthy and play at a high level with Cleveland in 2024, it would not be a stretch to call his contract the biggest boondoggle in NFL history.
Nick Foles, Jacksonville Jaguars (2019)
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The Contract: Four years, $88 million, $45.1 million guaranteed
Back in 2019, the Jacksonville Jaguars didn't have Trevor Lawrence on the roster. The team had just struggled through a 5-11 season in which Blake Bortles won just three of 12 starts.
Meanwhile, up in Philadelphia, Nick Foles had recently led the Eagles on one of the great Cinderella runs in postseason history. After Carson Wentz was injured late in the 2017 season, Foles led the Eagles all the way to a victory over the New England Patriots in Super Bowl LII. He made five more starts for the Eagles the following year, winning four.
When Foles hit free agency in 2019, the Jaguars pounced. The four-year, $88 million pact the Jags inked Foles to didn't make him one of the 10 highest-paid signal-callers in the league, but it was still an eye-opener for a quarterback who had started 10 games in a season just twice in his career.
At the time, then-head coach Doug Marrone told reporters that he was convinced that Foles' best football was still ahead of him.
"We really think his best days are ahead of him," Marrone said. "He's really played well of late, and we're excited to have him part of our team."
Yeah—not so much.
In his first start for the Jaguars against the Kansas City Chiefs, Foles fractured his collarbone in a 40-26 loss. He returned in Week 11 that year, only to be blown out by the Indianapolis Colts. Two weeks later, after throwing for less than 100 yards with three turnovers in the first half against the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Foles was benched for Gardner Minshew.
He would never play another down for the Jaguars—after losing all four of his starts with the Jags, Foles was dealt to the Chicago Bears the following spring for a Day 3 pick.
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Kirk Cousins, Atlanta Falcons (2024)
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The Contract: Four years, $180 million, $100 million guaranteed
In terms of NFL success over a dozen seasons, Kirk Cousins has been—OK. In 145 career starts, Cousins is 76-67-2. In five career playoff appearances, Cousins has thrown just five touchdown passes and won one contest.
However, in terms of contract success, Cousins is one of the most successful quarterbacks in recent memory. Per Over the Cap, Cousins has amassed over $280 million in career earnings.
He cashed in again in 2024—Cousins got $100 million in guarantees to bolt the Minnesota Vikings for the Atlanta Falcons. It wasn't the only big move the Falcons made under center this year—they stunned pundits and fans alike when they used their first selection in the 2024 draft on Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Despite the addition of Penix, new head coach Raheem Morris told reporters that the 35-year-old Cousins is the Falcons starter.
"Kirk's our quarterback," Morris said. "That will play out as it plays out. We've got a guy in the building that we hope can be our potential guy moving on in the future. I really love both of the people. ... You might not like the initial reaction of what is going to happen, but if you sit down, if you go through the process, talk to enough people, figure out what the goals are and we get it on the line, let's go. Let's go to work."
Morris and the Falcons can talk up Cousins all they want. But the addition of Penix has to indicate at least some concern about the Achilles tear that ended Cousins' 2023 season.
The question is if the Falcons had that significant of a concern about Cousins' health and/or long-term prospects, why did they hand him $100 million in guarantees?
It's a matter of risky meets…confusing.
Brock Osweiler, Houston Texans (2016)
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The Contract: Four years, $72 million, $37 million guaranteed
Back in 2015, Brock Osweiler played a fairly substantial role in Denver's march to victory in Super Bowl 50. Making seven starts in place of an injured Peyton Manning, Osweiler completed just under 62 percent of his passes with 10 touchdown passes. Denver won five of those seven starts.
That performance drew the attention of a Houston Texans team desperate for an upgrade under center—so desperate that they gave a quarterback with seven career starts $37 million in guarantees and an average annual salary comparable to the likes of Matthew Stafford of the Detroit Lions and Tony Romo of the Dallas Cowboys.
That's right—Jared Goff is making almost three times per season what Matthew Stafford made less than a decade ago. It's a good time to be a quarterback.
What there weren't were good times for Osweiler in Houston. The team eight of his 14 starts, but that was more in spite of him than because of him—Osweiler completed less than 60 percent of his passes and tossed 16 interceptions.
Late in that season, Osweiler told reporters that he was confident he could turn things around and become an asset to the Texans.
"We still have a lot of season left, and we have so much to play for," Osweiler said. "We've had some ups, we've had some downs, and you'd like to see steady improvement, but that doesn't always happen. But I'm very optimistic about what this football team can accomplish."
The Texans apparently did not agree. By the end of the season, he had been benched in favor of Tom "Not Randy" Savage, and after a dismal outing in the playoffs in relief of an injured Savage, Osweiler was done in Houston.
So done, in fact, that the team traded him and two draft picks (including a second-rounder) to the Cleveland Browns just to get Osweiler's abomination of a contract off the books.
Kyler Murray, Arizona Cardinals (2022)
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The Contract: Five years, $230.5 million, $160 million guaranteed
Under the terms of the current CBA, NFL teams can sign players to an extension after three seasons. And given how Kyler Murray's first three seasons progressed with the Arizona Cardinals, everyone knew a monster extension was coming—it was just a matter of when.
In his second season, Murray threw for almost 4,000 yards, tossed a career-high 26 touchdown passes and made his first Pro Bowl. The following year, he again made the Pro Bowl and led the Redbirds to the postseason.
However, Murray's miserable outing against the Los Angeles Rams in the playoffs should have served as a warning to the Cardinals. Instead of just after picking up Murray's fifth-year option for 2023, the team signed the first overall pick in 2019 to a massive extension that included $160 million in guarantees.
Since then, things haven't gone according to plan. Just after the deal was signed, reports surfaced that it included a mandatory film viewing requirement that called into question Murray's work ethic. Murray won just three of his 11 starts in 2022 before tearing his ACL, posting a career-low passer rating of 87.2. He missed over half the 2023 campaign rehabbing that knee injury and put up a passer rating under 90 for the third time in five years.
For what it's worth, Cardinals head coach Jonathan Gannon told reporters that he expects a major rebound from the 26-year-old Murray in 2024.
"I think his game's gonna go to another level. I know it is. I've been extremely pleased with where he's at, what he's doing, the command and the leadership that he's displaying right now. I mean, I think it was the best RVA I've ever seen in my life on Wednesday, truthfully. ... Not to put a bunch of pressure on him, but he's doing extremely well."
This is a make-or-break year for Murray in the desert. Return to his form from 2020 and 2021, and the last two years will be written off as the product of an unfortunate injury. But if Murray struggles again this year, the Cardinals are going to face a brutal decision in 2025—keep paying $45-plus million for so-so QB play, or reset under center.
Case Keenum, Denver Broncos (2018)
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The Contract: Two years, $36 million, $25 million guaranteed
Compared to some of the whoppers listed in this column, the two-year, $36 million pact the Denver Broncos gave Case Keenum in 2018 is a relatively modest deal. But that doesn't mean it wasn't risky—and it's an object lesson on the perils of paying for one big season.
When Case Keenum arrived in Minnesota in 2017, he was the definition of a journeyman—he was 9-15 over 24 starts with the Texans and Rams. But that 2017 season in the Twin Cities was magical. Keenum set a career-high with 3,547 passing yards, threw over three times as many touchdown passes as interceptions and won 11 of 14 starts. In the postseason, Keenum was on the pitching end of one of the wildest plays to end a playoff game in NFL history—the "Minneapolis Miracle."
Keenum himself admitted that 2017 campaign was like a dream come true.
"I think you dream about it, it's always a dream, it's why we play the game to play well and do what we do," Keenum said of his season, per Sid Hartman of the Star Tribune. "To see it come true has been incredible."
That career year earned Keenum a big payday from the Broncos, who had floundered under center since Peyton Manning's retirement. But once Keenum arrived in the Mile High City, the magic of the season before promptly evaporated.
Keenum started all 16 games for the Broncos in 2018. But his completion percentage dropped by over five full points. His interceptions more than doubled. His passer rating plummeted from nearly 100 to just over 80. And the Broncos went 6-10.
Denver saw all it needed to see from Keenum in that lone season—he was shipped off to Washington the following offseason, and the Broncos never again made the mistake of handing the wrong quarterback a fat bag of cash.
Russell Wilson, Denver Broncos (2022)
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The Contract: Five years, $245 million, $165 million guaranteed
If by "never," you mean not for four more years, anyway.
Denver continued wandering the quarterback wasteland after Keenum was traded. Joe Flacco. Drew Lock. Teddy Bridgewater. Brandon Allen.
As the losses piled up, so did the desperation. And in 2022, the Broncos went the Hail Mary route, dealing a package of players and picks that included two first-rounders to the Seattle Seahawks for veteran quarterback and Super Bowl champion Russell Wilson. The team then handed Wilson a $245 million extension that included $165 million in guarantees.
There were warning signs from the jump that at best this was a risky play.
Wilson was a Pro Bowler in 2021, but it was arguably his worst season in Seattle—his 3,113 passing yards were a career low, and for the first time in his career Wilson lost more games that year than he won. Partly that was due to a finger injury, but per Michael-Shawn Dugar, Jayson Jenks and Mike Sando of The Athletic, by the time Wilson's final season in Seattle concluded, he already had one foot out the door.
"Wilson's finger injury five weeks into the 2021 season, his rush back to the field and his poor play upon returning made this a complicated season to evaluate," they said. "But it didn't change Wilson's thinking that the Seahawks, as currently constructed, no longer provided Wilson the best opportunity to win Super Bowls and grow his legacy."
Wilson's first year in Denver was a disaster—four wins in 15 starts and career lows in completion percentage, touchdown passes and passer rating. His play improved in 2023 with the arrival of head coach Sean Payton, but reports swirled that player and coach did not get along.
If there was any doubt as to the veracity of those reports, the fact that Denver ate an NFL-record $85 million dead-cap hit and will pay Wilson $39 million in 2024 to play for the Pittsburgh Steelers appears to have settled it.
Daniel Jones, New York Giants (2023)
9 of 10
The Contract: Four years, $160 million, $92 million guaranteed
The Daniel Jones saga in New York is an example of how quickly a dream can turn into a nightmare.
Not much was expected of Jones and the Giants in 2022. But both team and quarterback surprised—Jones completed over 67 percent of his passes, topped 3,200 passing yards, threw three times as many touchdowns as interceptions, rushed for over 700 yards and seven scores and led New York to a 9-6-1 record, a playoff berth and an upset win over the Minnesota Vikings in the Wild Card Round.
The Giants had declined Jones' fifth-year option going into the 2022 season, which left them in a bind after his career year. The team elected to retain him, handing Jones $40 million per season and over $90 million in guarantees.
Then the bottom fell out. Injuries cost Jones 11 games, and when he was on the field, he was mostly awful—two touchdown passes, six picks and a passer rating of just 70.5. Many expected the G-Men to draft a quarterback and walk away from Jones this year, but New York decided instead to give Jones one more shot—and a genuine No. 1 receiver in LSU's Malik Nabers.
"Yeah, for me, I said it in January after the season. Expectation was Daniel would be our starter and we brought Drew Lock in to be his backup and Tommy [DeVito] has been the backup," general manager Joe Schoen told reporters. "So that's where we are and that's how we'll move forward this season. Daniel is still under contract for three more years. As it sits today, that is where we are."
That's not exactly a ringing endorsement, though, and there is zero doubt that this is a make-or-break season for Jones. Either he finds a way to recapture his 2022 form, or Lock will wind up making starts and the Giants will see the $11 million dead-cap hit for a post-June 1 cut next season as a sunk cost.
Derek Carr, New Orleans Saints (2023)
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The Contract: Four years, $150 million, $100 million guaranteed
For well over a decade, the quarterback position was an area of strength for the New Orleans Saints. Drew Brees brought the franchise its first championship and became the greatest player in team history.
However, when Brees called it a career, it left a gaping void at the game's most important position—one the Saints have been trying to fill ever since. Jameis Winston wasn't the answer. Neither was Andy Dalton.
Rather than try to reset with a rookie, the Saints again went the veteran route last year, inking Derek Carr to a four-year deal that included $100 million in guarantees.
Carr's first season in the Big Easy was rather Carr-esque—which is to say good, but not great. Carr completed 68.4 percent of his passes for 3,878 yards and 25 scores against just eight picks with a passer rating of 97.7. But the Saints barely finished above .500 and missed the postseason for the third consecutive season.
Carr's contract also left the perennially cap-strapped Saints in a precarious position financially. But New Orleans general manager Mickey Loomis told reporters that he expects both player and team to improve in 2024.
"[T]he surroundings are more familiar, the coaches are more familiar, the environment that we have in our building is familiar," Loomis said. "So, I think the arrow is up and we're excited about what Derek brings to the table. And I know he's excited. Look, it's hard to take that leadership role when you first come into a building--no matter how good you are, no matter what position you have. So now a year in, he's going to feel more comfortable about the leadership that you need from the quarterback and we're expecting great things."
Like Jones, Carr's second season in New Orleans is a pivotal one. The Saints would eat about $21.5 million in dead cap if they designated Carr as a post-June 1 cut next year.
Carr is a good quarterback. But he's not a great one—he can't single-handedly lead a team to victory. If Carr can't lead the Saints to the playoffs this year, Loomis may have little recourse but to blow up the roster and effectively start from scratch in 2025.
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