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Power Ranking Every Team's 3-Year Window After 2024 NBA Draft Lottery

Andy BaileyMay 16, 2024

This summer's NBA draft class isn't drawing the kindest analysis, but landing the top pick in any year can change an organization's near- and long-term fortunes.

That's especially true in an offseason like 2024, when the Atlanta Hawks, who nearly made the playoffs, jumped nine spots in the lottery to secure the No. 1 pick.

Others who moved up or claimed multiple lottery picks (like the San Antonio Spurs) could be looking at a slightly different outlook now too.

But those teams, and most of the rest of the league, still have a long way to go to catch up to the league's bona fide title contenders.

Based on picks in this draft and upcoming ones, young talent already on the roster, current performance, projected future performance and loads of subjectivity, every team in the league is ranked by their chances to win a title in the next three years (after 2023-24) below.

30. Detroit Pistons

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Cade Cunningham
Cade Cunningham

Even before a tragic lottery in which the Detroit Pistons dropped from the best odds to land the top pick all the way down to fifth for the actual draft order, there was essentially no chance, whatsoever, that they'd even flirt with legitimate title contention before the 2026-27 season.

At 14-68, Detroit just had the worst record in the NBA. Not even the No. 1 pick from 2021, Cade Cunningham, looks like a surefire future star. And their highest-paid player in 2024-25 is set to be Evan Fournier, who hasn't been in a rotation since 2021-22.

On the bright side, Cunningham has shown some upside as a playmaker with decent size. Jalen Duren looks like a high-end rim-runner to pair with him. Jaden Ivey got comfortable as a secondary playmaker down the stretch this season. And Ausar Thompson looks like he has All-Defensive upside.

Again, that isn't going to coalesce into title contention any time soon, but there are at least some slivers of hope on the roster.

29. Portland Trail Blazers

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Scoot Henderson
Scoot Henderson

The Portland Trail Blazers' title prospects aren't much more encouraging than Detroit's.

The third overall pick in 2023, Scoot Henderson, seemed to get more comfortable as the season went along, but he still shot under 40 percent from the field, had a 1.6 assist-to-turnover ratio and had the 939th-best box plus/minus among the 955 three-point-era rookies with 1,000-plus minutes.

It's obviously too early to give up on him, but the first campaign could've been a bit more encouraging, especially since he's really the only high-end prospect on the roster right now (depending on how you feel about Shaedon Sharpe).

What separates Portland, at least a bit, from Detroit is some of the players on the team who'd likely command decent trade returns. The Blazers may still be able to get value for Malcolm Brogdon, Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons (though it's probably too early to move on from that last one). Some team desperate enough for size might even be intrigued enough by the stretch run of Deandre Ayton (he averaged 23.2 points and 12.4 rebounds over his last 15 games) to make a play for him.

Of course, such moves probably wouldn't do much to make the Blazers contenders between now and the end of the 2026-27 season, so this is a pretty easy placement.

28. Washington Wizards

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Deni Avdija and Bilal Coulibaly
Deni Avdija and Bilal Coulibaly

There's a real debate between the Blazers and the Washington Wizards, but we're talking about the 28th and 29th spots in this exercise, so the distinctions may not mean much.

We'll give Washington the slightest of edges here because Jordan Poole (I know, I know) was an important fixture on a title team just two years ago, Kyle Kuzma was four years ago and Deni Avdija looks ready to contribute to a winning team as a three-and-D forward with a hint of playmaking.

There may not be quite as much upside in Bilal Coulibaly as there is with Henderson and Sharpe, but that's not really the point of this exercise.

Neither of these teams is ready to compete now, but Washington is a quarter-step closer to the starting line.

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27. Charlotte Hornets

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Brandon Miller
Brandon Miller

Like the others profiled to this point, the Charlotte Hornets' shot at winning a title in the next three seasons is about as close to nonexistent as it can get.

What sets them apart, at least in an injury-free perfect world, is that they do have at least one star player, and he plays perhaps the most important role in the league.

Lead playmaker LaMelo Ball has already made an All-Star team and has averaged 21.6 points and 7.9 assists over the last three seasons. Of course, lack of availability has been a major issue, but just having a "guy" is a prerequisite to contention.

There's no guarantee Ball is that, but he's closer to it than Cunningham, Henderson and Poole.

Charlotte also has some young talent, including at least one potential star in Brandon Miller, that fits pretty well alongside Ball.

Mark Williams is the kind of rim-runner and -protector that could be half of a solid pick-and-roll combination with Ball. And Miller showed flashes of a Paul George-like three-and-D-plus game as a rookie.

26. Brooklyn Nets

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Cam Thomas and Mikal Bridges
Cam Thomas and Mikal Bridges

The Pistons, Blazers, Wizards and Hornets having worse regular-season records than the Brooklyn Nets over the next three years feels like a relatively safe bet, but the Brooklyn Nets' situation might somehow be a little sadder.

Fans of those teams at least have the futures of Cunningham, Henderson, Avdija and Ball to look forward to. The Nets are about as mired in mediocrity as an NBA team can be.

With apologies to Mikal Bridges (better suited as a third or fourth option) and Cam Thomas (better suited as a microwave bench scorer), there really isn't a star or surefire future star on this roster.

And unlike some of the other rebuilding teams, Brooklyn doesn't have its own picks to rely on. Tanking doesn't do much for you when you don't control your own first till 2028.

Barring some dramatic moves in the next three years, things are looking pretty bleak.

25. Toronto Raptors

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Jakob Poeltl, Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley
Jakob Poeltl, Scottie Barnes and Immanuel Quickley

The Toronto Raptors intentionally backed up their contention timeline a bit when they traded OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam for packages geared more toward a rebuild.

Still, they have a young All-Star in Scottie Barnes who can defend all over the floor and initiate the offense, and they've surrounded him with pieces that make some sense on paper.

Barnes' outside shot is a weakness, so surrounding him with as many shooters as possible is the right approach. They're varying degrees of streaky, but Immanuel Quickley (a restricted free agent this summer) and RJ Barrett at least fit that mold in theory.

Big men Jakob Poeltl and Kelly Olynyk are win-now players, too. And Bruce Brown's $23 million salary could probably be part of a win-now trade.

But none of the above is going to push Toronto to legitimate title contention in the next three years.

24. Utah Jazz

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Collin Sexton and Lauri Markkanen
Collin Sexton and Lauri Markkanen

Utah Jazz CEO Danny Ainge said the team is ready to go "big-game hunting" this summer, and it has the trove of draft assets to do that.

But the players rumored to be on the trade market this summer (like Trae Young, Zach LaVine or Brandon Ingram) probably aren't going to instantly vault Utah into contention, even if it keeps Lauri Markkanen and Collin Sexton after the deal.

The Jazz are deep in NBA purgatory. They're not quite bad enough to be in the mix for top picks (barring a big lottery jump like Atlanta's), but they also haven't made the play-in tournament since Quin Snyder left.

The easier way out of that slog in the middle of the West is a more aggressive tank job, which obviously wouldn't improve their positioning in an exercise like this.

23. Chicago Bulls

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Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White
Ayo Dosunmu and Coby White

The Chicago Bulls are another team that just sort of feels stuck. And a recent report from HoopsHype's Michael Scotto suggests they might be fine staying there.

"The Bulls have several items on their offseason agenda, including re-signing DeMar DeRozan," Scotto wrote. "In general, the belief around the league is DeRozan will ultimately re-sign with the Bulls, given the team's continued desire to compete, his role, and Chicago's willingness to pay him."

During his three seasons with the Bulls, Chicago is a pedestrian plus-0.4 points per 100 possessions with DeRozan on the floor.

The smarter long-term play would be working a sign-and-trade to move DeRozan and taking whatever's out there for Zach LaVine and Nikola Vučević.

The Bulls are long overdue for a full-scale rebuild, and they can have some fun watching Coby White while doing it. Maintaining the status quo probably just keeps them hovering around .500 for the foreseeable future.

22. Atlanta Hawks

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Trae Young and Dejounte Murray
Trae Young and Dejounte Murray

Landing the top pick in the lottery is nice, but you almost feel bad that the Hawks happened to get it this year.

"Multiple veteran NBA execs say the same thing about this draft," veteran reporter Jeff Goodman wrote. "It's the worst draft they have ever seen."

That limits Atlanta on a couple fronts. If the reports about the weakness of this class are true, there may not be a short-term difference-maker available to take with the first pick. It could also mean the pick won't mean much in potential trade packages.

Still, the allure of No. 1, in any year, is better than No. 10 (where Atlanta was prior to the lottery). And that's enough to gently nudge this team a spot or two up the board.

Right now, the Hawks have two dynamic guards in Trae Young and Dejounte Murray who just don't fit together well. Moving one of them and rebalancing the roster a bit could bolster the team's depth and trove of draft assets.

There's still more development to come for Jalen Johnson, Onyeka Okongwu and De'Andre Hunter, too. Add that theoretical trade and Bogdan Bogdanović to the mix, and it's easy to see this team pushing for a playoff spot next year.

Much more than that, though, feels like a stretch.

21. San Antonio Spurs

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Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell
Victor Wembanyama and Devin Vassell

There's a real temptation to move the San Antonio Spurs even further up this list.

Victor Wembanyama is only 20 years old, and he just wrapped up a rookie season that was good enough for fringe All-NBA consideration.

Turns out, the hype was entirely justified, and Wemby could check every box as early as next season. In 2023-24, he put up 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.6 blocks, 1.8 threes and 1.2 steals.

That's bonkers, and it's abundantly clear he has the potential to be the best player on a title team. Probably multiple title teams.

Landing two top-10 picks in this year's draft helps their placement here, too.

But one budding star and some draft picks aren't enough for immediate contention (unless those picks help San Antonio land another superstar).

As exciting as the Spurs' future is, championships are probably still more than three years away.

Michael Jordan didn't win his first championship till his age-27 season. Ditto for LeBron James and Nikola Jokić.

Even for the very best of all time, there's a learning curve.

20. Houston Rockets

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Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green
Alperen Şengün and Jalen Green

The Houston Rockets have one of the most exciting young cores in the NBA with Alperen Şengün, Jalen Green, Jabari Smith Jr., Amen Thompson and Cam Whitmore.

At least one of those players (Şengün) is already in the mix for All-Star nods. And if Green can maintain the production he had down the stretch (he averaged 24.5 points, 4.0 assists and 3.5 threes over his last 24 games), those two could lead a team with contender upside.

But those two are 21 and 22, respectively. And unlike another young team we'll talk about later, the Rockets don't have much spending power this offseason.

Houston is on the rise. And it's not hard to imagine this core doing something special (especially when you compare Şengün, Green and Smith stylistically to Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr.).

But this feels more like a "four or five years away" group than a "compete for titles right now" one.

19. Sacramento Kings

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Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox
Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox

The Sacramento Kings have an undeniably dynamic top two in Domantas Sabonis and De'Aaron Fox.

The former led the league in triple-doubles this season, and the latter is about as quick as anyone in the league from first step on the perimeter to finishing plays at the rim.

A still-developing Keegan Murray is an interesting, sweet-shooting outlet for that two-man game, too.

But this group has limitations, particularly on defense. It didn't make the playoffs this season, and over the last two, it's just plus-1.7 points per 100 possessions when Fox and Sabonis are both on the floor.

Add to that the possibility of Malik Monk leaving in free agency this summer, and it's easy to have some doubts about contention during the next three years.

Still, Sabonis has All-NBA talent and versatility. Fox will be in All-Star conversations during this three-year window. And if Murray takes a developmental leap, the Kings may surprise some people.

18. Los Angeles Lakers

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LeBron James and Anthony Davis
LeBron James and Anthony Davis

The Los Angeles Lakers' last best chance to win a title may have come in 2023, when they went from the play-in tournament to the conference finals.

LeBron James will turn 40 next season. The Lakers are in the same conference as the Denver Nuggets, Minnesota Timberwolves, Dallas Mavericks and Oklahoma City Thunder. Even Anthony Davis is probably aging past his prime. And the current supporting cast sort of falls off a cliff after D'Angelo Russell and Austin Reaves.

Actually, you can talk yourself into thinking L.A.'s window to contend is already shut.

But LeBron has already shattered our notions of when a prime can end in the NBA. He was a top 5-10 player in the NBA this season. AD was probably in the same range of players. And though they lost to the Nuggets in five games, the Lakers were only outscored by 11 points in that series. Murray had to hit two last-second game-winners to get that result.

If the Lakers' two superstars have one more year in the tank, and the front office can add a third star this summer, L.A. might have a final run in it.

17. Cleveland Cavaliers

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Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Darius Garland
Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley and Darius Garland

In terms of raw talent, it feels like the Cleveland Cavaliers should be higher than this.

Donovan Mitchell is a five-time All-Star with a growing list of heroic postseason performances. Darius Garland and Jarrett Allen have All-Star appearances to their names, too. And Evan Mobley, though his production has kind of plateaued, has the potential to be a game-changing defender (if he isn't that already) who averages 20 points and 10 rebounds.

But this season has demonstrated that all those puzzle pieces don't quite fit flush.

At 6'3" and 6'1", Mitchell and Garland are both undersized for their positions. You can get away with one small guard, but defense starts to become a real challenge when you start two. And with Mobley yet to develop a consistent outside shot, he and Allen playing together makes things awfully crowded inside.

Some offseason trade (or trades) could balance the roster, but if it's Mitchell on the move, the team might take a half step away from contention.

16. Indiana Pacers

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Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton
Aaron Nesmith, Pascal Siakam and Tyrese Haliburton

The Indiana Pacers are within striking distance of the conference finals, but you have to acknowledge the impact injuries have had on this run.

Giannis Antetokounmpo didn't play a single game in the first round. Damian Lillard missed some time, too. And in this second-round series against the New York Knicks, Indiana's opponent is missing Julius Randle, Mitchell Robinson and OG Anunoby, all of whom would be starting.

But there is an interesting foundation in place here with Tyrese Haliburton, Pascal Siakam, Myles Turner and some gritty role players like T.J. McConnell, Aaron Nesmith and Andrew Nembhard.

Haliburton is just 24 years old and has averaged 20.4 points and 10.7 assists over the last two seasons. There may be a hint of development yet to come.

If Bennedict Mathurin takes another step in the right developmental direction, they might inch a bit closer to a title, too.

But in spite of this season's success, it's hard to see the Pacers as legitimate title contenders in the next three years.

15. Miami Heat

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Caleb Martin, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler
Caleb Martin, Bam Adebayo and Jimmy Butler

This may seem too low on a team that made two Finals and three conference finals over the four years prior to this one, but it'll be tough to put a lot of stock in Jimmy Butler playoff runs going forward.

He, of course, missed this year's first round with an injury. And availability has been a real concern over the years. There's no way to know if any given player will be around for the postseason, but Butler missing this one and turning 35 in September makes trusting the Miami Heat especially precarious.

Of course, he and his team have busted conventional thinking in the past, and they could do so again. But 2023-24 sort of felt like the carriage turning back into a pumpkin after a magical four-year run.

Bam Adebayo is a versatile big who'll likely push for All-NBA nods over the next three years. Tyler Herro has had his moments as a heat-check scorer. Jaime Jaquez Jr. looks like he'll check a lot of boxes as a playmaking wing. And even Nikola Jović looks ready to contribute to winning teams as a stretch big.

But things get relatively bleak on the roster after that.

14. Golden State Warriors

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Draymond Green and Stephen Curry
Draymond Green and Stephen Curry

This placement probably feels aggressive to plenty of readers. The Golden State Warriors just missed the playoffs. Stephen Curry is 36. Klay Thompson (who just turned 34 in February) somehow looks older than him. And Draymond Green continues to look prone to getting himself suspended on any given night.

But the Warriors just won the title in 2022. Curry finally started to look mortal this regular season, but his gravity as a shooter remains unparalleled. No group in the NBA has more championship experience and equity.

And at some point in the next three years, a massive trade to maximize what's left of Curry's prime feels like a very real possibility.

The Warriors have young players in Jonathan Kuminga and Brandin Podziemski who could command pretty decent returns in a trade, though that's a bit more speculative than much of the analysis around the rest of this exercise.

Ultimately, the Warriors climbing this high is mostly a bet on Curry.

13. New Orleans Pelicans

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Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson and Herb Jones
Trey Murphy III, Zion Williamson and Herb Jones

The New Orleans Pelicans have (and have had) loads of talent for years, but they've yet to threaten real contention for a few reasons.

First and foremost, there's just no way to count on Zion Williamson being healthy when it matters most. He played a career-high 70 games in 2023-24, but he missed the postseason after injuring his hamstring in the play-in game.

Not having your best player for the playoffs would pretty much eliminate anyone from contention, but New Orleans also doesn't have the right No. 2 to even give it a chance.

Brandon Ingram's mid-range-heavy and inefficient offensive game are part of why he could be on the move this summer. And uncertainty over his spot makes it tougher to buy this team as a contender within the next three years.

On the other hand, when he is available, Zion is one of the most devastating and dynamic offensive weapons in the league. The Pelicans have two of the NBA's most intriguing young three-and-D wings in Herbert Jones and Trey Murphy III. And they're loaded with future draft assets.

The path to contention isn't totally clear, but it's there.

12. Memphis Grizzlies

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Ja Morant
Ja Morant

The 2023-24 campaign turned into a gap year for the Memphis Grizzlies. After serving his 25-game suspension, Ja Morant managed just nine appearances before suffering a season-ending injury. Steven Adams' season was over before it even started (and he was eventually traded to the Houston Rockets).

That and injuries to Desmond Bane took Memphis out of the hunt even for just a play-in spot, but it also gave the team opportunities to develop GG Jackson and Vince Williams Jr. It allowed Jaren Jackson Jr. to explore his offensive game a little more.

And the gains made this season will serve the Grizzlies well in the near future. They just finished second in the West in 2022-23. And getting Morant and Bane back to join improved versions of Jackson and Williams should have Memphis back in that mix right away.

Legitimate title contention feels like a bit of a stretch, but that may just be a product of the team's absence from the conversation this season.

Ja Morant is only 24 years old (though he'll turn 25 before 2024-25), and he could remind us pretty quickly of how good he and the Grizzlies can be.

11. Philadelphia 76ers

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Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey
Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey

The Philadelphia 76ers being around the same range as the Pelicans feels right.

As is the case with Zion, there's just no way you can count on Joel Embiid being available and fully healthy for a postseason run.

It's been 10 seasons since he was drafted, and the 76ers haven't been past the second round in that stretch. Several of their playoff runs have looked like 2024's, in which Embiid was hobbling his way to an early exit.

For his career, Embiid has averaged 27.9 points with a 7.0 box plus/minus in the regular season, while he's at 24.9 points with a 4.1 box plus/minus in the playoffs.

And after missing the bulk of 2023-24 with a knee injury, it's fair to be worried about a growing list of maladies for a player who's 7'0" and pushing 300 pounds.

But, again like Zion, Embiid is an unstoppable force when he's healthy. Even with a bad knee and while suffering the effects of a case of Bell's palsy, he had a 50-point performance this postseason.

And he now seems to have a running mate in Tyrese Maxey who has no problem rising to meet the game's biggest moments.

With those two alone, you almost have to put Philadelphia in the tier of title contenders (even if it isn't the top tier).

There's also some uncertainty with this team based on the fact that Embiid and Paul Reed are the only two players under contract for 2024-25. You can spin that positively and say Philly will use the cap space to add another star and then sign Maxey out of restricted free agency. But there's no guarantee the offseason goes the way the Sixers want it to.

Projecting this team's three-year future is as speculative as any other here.

10. Phoenix Suns

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Devin Booker and Kevin Durant
Devin Booker and Kevin Durant

Having the Phoenix Suns in the top 10 may feel a bit too reverential toward the talent of Kevin Durant and Devin Booker.

They struggled their way to 49 wins and the sixth seed in the West, only to be obliterated by the Minnesota Timberwolves in the playoffs.

Bradley Beal might have the worst contract in the NBA, and his lack of availability was a big part of the team's disappointing regular season.

And because they already leveraged themselves to the hilt with the Durant and Beal trades, there aren't many avenues toward meaningful, positive change.

Sure, Phoenix could move Booker and Durant for assets, but that obviously wouldn't improve its position in this exercise.

Having said all that, there were still flashes of championship upside all over the regular season. We've already seen Durant make it all the way to the mountaintop twice. Booker helped the team get to the Finals in 2021.

And when those two were on the floor with Beal, Grayson Allen and Jusuf Nurkić, Phoenix was plus-10.4 points per 100 possessions.

The runway may not be super long for Durant, but we're only talking about a three-year window here.

There's a chance that a year of continuity for that group and some timely off-the-bench contributions from Eric Gordon could have Phoenix in the hunt for a title as early as 2025.

9. Orlando Magic

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Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner
Paolo Banchero and Franz Wagner

This is an admittedly optimistic projection. The Orlando Magic just lost in the first round, and their lone All-Star, Paolo Banchero, was one of this season's least efficient scorers.

But he's also just 21 years old, way ahead of schedule as a playmaker and flanked by an intriguing young supporting cast that includes Franz Wagner, Jalen Suggs, Jonathan Isaac and Wendell Carter Jr.

That core already has one of the youngest teams in the league finishing second in the league in defense, and most of the above are still on their rookie deals.

That means the opportunity to add a hefty contract in free agency or through a trade will be there (as early as this summer), which should push this team even closer to contention.

Ultimately, though, this placement is a bet on Banchero, particularly that he'll become a more consistent shooter.

You have to have a super (maybe even superduper) star to win it all in the NBA, and Banchero has the potential to be just that.

8. Los Angeles Clippers

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Paul George, James Harden and Kawhi Leonard
Paul George, James Harden and Kawhi Leonard

There's plenty of uncertainty surrounding the Los Angeles Clippers right now.

James Harden is a free agent this summer. Paul George could be, too. He's yet to exercise his player option, and the Clippers have yet to extend him.

And the star we know will be on the roster in 2024-25, Kawhi Leonard, has missed the closing games in three of his four playoff runs with L.A.

But, like Phoenix, the theoretical version of this team has the potential to dominate.

The Clippers went 26-5 over a significant stretch in the middle of the season. And when all three of the stars were on the floor, they were plus-10.6 points per 100 possessions.

If they're all back and mostly healthy (big ifs, for sure), L.A. will at least be eyeing the top tier of title contenders.

Beyond those three, the Clippers have Norman Powell, Ivica Zubac, Terance Mann, Russell Westbrook and Amir Coffey all under contract for next season. So, the trio should have a solid supporting cast, too.

7. New York Knicks

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Donte DiVincenzo, Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart
Donte DiVincenzo, Jalen Brunson and Josh Hart

One of the biggest developments in the NBA this season (and more specifically, this postseason) is Jalen Brunson's trajectory from backup guard in 2020-21, to steady starter in 2021-22, to fringe All-Star in 2022-23 to All-Star in 2023-24 to a "guy" in this playoff run.

With the Knicks missing three starters in Randle, Anunoby and Robinson, Brunson has accepted the "team on his back" cliche about as well as anyone in league history.

He's averaging 36.3 points and 7.8 assists over his last nine postseason games. And if you go all the way back to March 14, Brunson has played 28 regular and postseason games with averages of 34.6 points and 7.5 assists.

Having a player who can reach these heights is almost always a component of a title run, but that's not the only reason the Knicks are in this top 10.

Brunson, Randle, Anunoby (player option), Robinson and Bojan Bogdanović are all under contract next season. Brunson's teammates from Villanova, Josh Hart and Donte DiVincenzo, will be there too, providing the same grit and chemistry that they are right now.

And New York still has tons of draft assets to put in trades to supplement this group or even chase another star between now and the 2027 Finals.

6. Milwaukee Bucks

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Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard
Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard

Even when you account for late-season injuries to Giannis Antetokounmpo and Damian Lillard, the Milwaukee Bucks were one of 2023-24's most disappointing teams.

Despite going 30-13, Adrian Griffin's abbreviated stint as head coach was marred by dysfunction. Things didn't go much better after Doc Rivers took over. The Bucks went 19-20 under him in the regular season and got knocked out in the first round of the playoffs.

And perhaps most concerning, Giannis' supporting cast, including Lillard, often looked old and slow in comparison to the Indiana Pacers.

Still, when healthy, Lillard looked like a top 25-30 player. It's reasonable to expect one or two more All-Star-level seasons. And Giannis is only 29 years old. Having a top-five(ish) player is almost a prerequisite to winning it all, and Milwaukee has one in Antetokounmpo.

The Bucks may have to move on from Khris Middleton or Brook Lopez in the next few years. Who knows how long the Rivers tenure will last? There will be real questions and decisions on the horizon, but having Giannis almost makes them contenders by default.

5. Dallas Mavericks

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Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving
Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving

The Dallas Mavericks have two of the league's most dynamic offensive weapons in Luka Dončić and Kyrie Irving. And since this trade deadline, which brought them more size and defense from Daniel Gafford and P.J. Washington, those two have had the backing they need to make Dallas look like a real contender.

There are times when it's still felt like the Mavericks might need one more high-level scorer to take some pressure off that top duo, but the new collective bargaining agreement is likely to make the "two stars and depth" model more common than the Big Three.

As that CBA starts to spread talent around the league a bit more, the Mavericks are likely to maintain one of the best one-two punches at least through 2025-26 (when Irving has a $43 million player option).

As long as they have the two superstars and a handful of gritty defenders, they'll be capable of deep playoff runs.

4. Oklahoma City Thunder

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Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander and Jalen Williams

The Oklahoma City Thunder are getting their first real taste of postseason basketball in 2024. And as they were throughout the regular season, the Thunder look ahead of schedule.

Whatever "it" is, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has it. He spearheaded a remarkable comeback win in Game 4 of OKC's second-round series against the Dallas Mavericks with 34 points that all came from the mid-range or the free-throw line. He's one of the game's premier scorers and an underrated creator and defender.

And the front office has surrounded him with a precocious, talented and well-fitting group that includes versatile wing Jalen Williams, three-and-D center Chet Holmgren and ferocious perimeter defender Luguentz Dort.

All of the above are on the books for 2024-25, plus they still have Cason Wallace developing and could use Josh Giddey in a win-now trade.

The tier of teams we can expect to be realistic contenders during the next three years may be getting a little crowded, but OKC absolutely has to be there.

3. Minnesota Timberwolves

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Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards
Rudy Gobert, Karl-Anthony Towns and Anthony Edwards

If the Minnesota Timberwolves don't reach their goal of winning a title this summer, they may be forced to make some tough, luxury-tax-induced decisions.

If ownership (whoever that may be) is willing to spend, though, Karl-Anthony Towns, Rudy Gobert, Anthony Edwards, Mike Conley, Jaden McDaniels, Naz Reid and Nickeil Alexander-Walker are all under contract for 2024-25.

And that core is good enough to compete for titles.

Edwards is a superstar in the making who's earning non-ridiculous Michael Jordan comparisons this postseason. He's surrounded by gritty defenders like Gobert, McDaniels and NAW. And their two-big front can be effective thanks to the outside shooting of KAT.

2. Boston Celtics

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Derrick White, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown
Derrick White, Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown

The amount of criticism the Boston Celtics have gotten over the years might lead the casual observer to think they have one of the oldest rosters in the league.

And while players like Al Horford and Jrue Holiday certainly bump that average age up a bit, the most important ones on the roster are all either in or shy of their primes.

Jaylen Brown (27 years old), Jayson Tatum (26), Kristaps Porziņģis (28) and Derrick White (29) are all under contract for next season. Reserves Sam Hauser and Payton Pritchard, both of whom had mini-breakouts this season, will be back, too (barring a trade, of course).

And this entire core just won 64 games and had the fifth-highest SRS (simple rating system combines point differential and strength of schedule) in NBA history.

If the front office keeps this group together, it'll remain in the contenders' tier for each of the next three seasons.

1. Denver Nuggets

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Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon
Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon

The Denver Nuggets' quest for a repeat is still alive, and most of the core that just won the title in 2023 is under contract for 2024-25.

Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has a player option, but Nikola Jokić, Jamal Murray, Michael Porter Jr. and Aaron Gordon are all on the books.

General manager Calvin Booth's plan for sustainable success is looking pretty good right now too. Peyton Watson has blossomed into one of the league's better on-ball defenders and weak-side rim protectors. And Christian Braun's length, athleticism and improving outside shot have him looking like a long-term three-and-D option and potential eventual replacement of KCP.

But really, Denver's title window will remain open as long as Jokić is on the roster and in his prime. He's in the middle of a four- or five-year peak that can really only be challenged by LeBron James and Michael Jordan. And when you have a player like this, title(s) usually become the expectation.

Lakers Take 1-0 Series Lead 😤

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