Predicting the Next 5 NBA MVPs
On Wednesday, the NBA announced that Nikola Jokić has secured his third MVP in the last four seasons.
After averaging 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds, 9.0 assists, 1.4 steals and 0.9 blocks in 34.6 minutes, while posting his typically uber-efficient shooting numbers and leading the league in total plus-minus and box plus/minus, he joins a list of three-timers that includes some illustrious names.
And at just 29 years old and coming off one of the greatest individual seasons of all time, it's reasonable to think Jokić could secure the honor for a fourth time, which would put him in the company of Kareem Abdul-Jabbar, Michael Jordan, Bill Russell, Wilt Chamberlain and LeBron James.
But that's also not a given. This season, though their MVP cases ultimately weren't as strong as Jokić's, at least three other players (Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luka Dončić and Giannis Antetokounmpo) played like MVPs. And like Jokić, all three are either shy of or in their primes.
There are a couple phenoms on their heels, too.
The NBA is absolutely loaded with talent right now. MVP discussions figure to remain vibrant for years to come. Below, you'll find the best bets for the first five names who'll receive the honor post-2023-24.
Don't consider this a prediction of who will snag the award in each of the next five seasons. That could limit us to two or three names, given the potential for repeat winners. Instead, these are, again, the next five individual players who'll win MVPs.
Luka Dončić
1 of 5
Luka entering the season as the betting favorite for MVP has become an annual NBA tradition.
His third-place finish behind Jokić and SGA is his highest, but he's been in the top 10 in voting in each of the last five seasons. And he's still just 25 years old.
In 2023-24, his case didn't really gain a ton of steam until the Dallas Mavericks acquired a little more size and defense in P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford at the trade deadline.
And those additions figure to help his case in 2024-25 and 2025-26, too.
Both big men are under contract for those seasons, and the grit they provide makes it even easier for Dončić to focus on generating offense.
One of the most prolific engines in NBA history, Luka averaged 33.9 points, 9.8 assists, 9.2 rebounds and 4.1 threes, while shooting a career-high 38.2 percent from deep in 2023-24. And his game became at least a bit less ball-dominant, as he adapted to playing with another superstar talent in Kyrie Irving.
Given the fact that he's still a few years away from his prime, it's actually pretty tough to imagine Luka not being one of the next five players named MVP.
Shai Gilgeous-Alexander
2 of 5
This year's second-place finisher, Shai Gilgeous-Alexander has rapidly become one of the league's most prolific and efficient individual scorers.
In 2023-24, he averaged 30.1 points and 6.2 assists, while leading one of the youngest teams in the NBA to the West's top seed.
And though he doesn't quite fill out the entire stat sheet quite like Jokić, Dončić or Antetokounmpo, Gilgeous-Alexander's impact goes well beyond scoring, too.
He was tied with De'Aaron Fox for the league lead in steals per game. And his length and athleticism made him a key cog in a defense that ranked fourth in the NBA.
Considering the fact that the soon-to-be-26-year-old is somehow the elder statesman on a team that includes rising stars Jalen Williams and Chet Holmgren, SGA's Oklahoma City Thunder aren't going anywhere anytime soon, either.
They'll continue to push for Western Conference superiority, and you can be sure Gilgeous-Alexander will get plenty of credit (and eventually hardware) for it.
Anthony Edwards
3 of 5
Jokić was the rightful winner of this season's MVP, but he's currently being outplayed by 22-year-old superstar Anthony Edwards in the second round.
Edwards still trails Jokić in playoffs-long box plus/minus, but he's in the lead in the Minnesota Timberwolves-Denver Nuggets series.
He's drawing reasonable Michael Jordan comparisons, dominating on both ends of the floor and taking over the "best shooting guard in the league" conversation.
Like the Oklahoma City Thunder, Edwards' Timberwolves are built to be dominant for the foreseeable future, too. They're also built to accentuate Edwards' strengths.
Rudy Gobert and Jaden McDaniels provide a defensive foundation that allows Edwards to be aggressive on the perimeter on that end. On the other, no one is taking too many possessions away from the star (not even Karl-Anthony Towns).
And if he can maintain whatever extra gear he consistently finds for the playoffs into the 2024-25 regular season, he's absolutely be in the mix for MVP.
Over the last two postseasons, Edwards is averaging 32.0 points, 6.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists, 3.0 threes, 1.8 steals and 1.4 blocks, while shooting 38.4 percent from deep.
Victor Wembanyama
4 of 5
Victor Wembanyama was just named the unanimous Rookie of the Year. He recently said Gobert would deserve this Defensive Player of the year, but it'd be his turn next.
And naturally, MVPs are in his future, too.
He just averaged 21.4 points, 10.6 rebounds, 3.9 assists, 3.6 blocks and 1.2 steals. Kareem Abdul-Jabbar is the only player in NBA history who matched or exceeded all five numbers during a season, and he was 28 when he did it.
When you adjust for pace and playing time, no one matched or exceed his averages for points, rebounds, assists, blocks and steals per 75 possessions.
He's already arguably the most dominant defensive player in the NBA. His offensive game developed rapidly over the course of the season. He's 7'4" and moves and shoots like a wing.
Expecting an MVP before his age-26 season may be optimistic, but he's already smashed the lofty expectations for his rookie campaign that followed him into the NBA.
Nikola Jokić
5 of 5
Jokić already has three MVPs in the bag, and he's not even 30. His absurd regular-season production has become like a metronome.
Over the last four years, he's averaged 26.1 points, 12.2 rebounds and 8.7 assists. He's the game's premier "makes his teammates better" and offensive engine. And whenever he's on the floor, almost regardless of who's with him, the Nuggets play like a juggernaut.
Over this stretch, he leads the league in total plus-minus at plus-2,150. That's over 200 points clear of second-place Jayson Tatum.
Denver wins when Jokić is available. When he's available, he nearly averages a triple-double. He's the best player in the world and will likely be in that conversation for at least the next few years.
His fourth (and maybe even fifth) MVP could be on the way.
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