NFL Draft 2024: Latest 1st-Round Mocks, Odds, Best Fits for Top Prospects
The 2024 NFL draft is less than one week away, and oddsmakers already have a strong hunch of how it will start.
USC quarterback Caleb Williams is an overwhelming favorite (minus-20,000) to be taken by the Chicago Bears with the No. 1 pick, per DraftKings Sportsbook.
Oddsmakers and analysts agree, though, there is room for debate as soon as the No. 2 pick. To get an idea of where they're leaning, we'll look at a couple recent expert mocks and lay out some notable draft odds before identifying two of our best prospect-team fits atop this draft.
Expert Mocks
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Consensus in the top 10?
When examining mock drafts from The Athletic's Dane Brugler, ESPN's Mel Kiper Jr. and Field Yates and NFL.com's Dan Parr, the first trend to emerge is the fact you'll find the same names over and over to start them.
The order might differ a bit, but the prospects don't. All three mocks start with the same nine players: Williams, LSU quarterback Jayden Daniels, North Carolina quarterback Drake Maye, Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy, Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr., LSU receiver Malik Nabers, Notre Dame offensive tackle Joe Alt, Alabama edge Dallas Turner and Washington receiver Rome Odunze.
In fact, the experts have the same selection spots for Williams (No. 1), Daniels (No. 2), Maye (No. 3), Nabers (No. 6), Alt (No. 7), Turner (No. 8) and Odunze (No. 9). They all have McCarthy in the Nos. 4 or 5 spots—always after a trade up by the Minnesota Vikings—and Harrison in the other. At No. 10, meanwhile, Parr and Brugler both have the New York Jets taking Georgia tight end Brock Bowers, while the ESPN crew sent Washington offensive tackle/guard Troy Fautanu.
Active trade market?
All three of these mocks feature trades in the first round. Where things change is the teams involved and at which spots.
The ESPN duo only brokered one deal with Minnesota getting the fifth pick (and taking McCarthy) from the Los Angeles Chargers for pick Nos. 11 and 23 and a first-rounder in 2025.
The other experts call for more activity.
Parr included three trades in the first round. He also had Minnesota and L.A. doing a deal involving picks Nos. 5, 11 and 23. He also has the Washington Commanders getting the No. 17 pick for picks Nos. 36 and 40 from the Jacksonville Jaguars to get Penn State offensive tackle Olumuyiwa Fashanu. Finally, Parr has the Jaguars using picks Nos. 40 and 48 to acquire the No. 25 from the Green Bay Packers and draft Iowa defensive back Cooper DeJean.
Brugler predicted the busiest first round with four different deals. He had Minnesota getting No. 4 from the Arizona Cardinals for picks Nos. 11 and 23 and a 2025 third-rounder. He then had Arizona quickly moving picks Nos. 11 and 35 to get No. 5 from the Chargers. Brugler also mocked the Buffalo Bills trading up to No. 17 (giving Jacksonville picks Nos. 28, 133 and 144 and a 2025 second) to get LSU receiver Brian Thomas Jr. Finally, he finished with the Las Vegas Raiders moving up to No. 29 (sending picks Nos. 44 and 77 to the Detroit Lions) to take Washington quarterback Michael Penix Jr.
Notable Odds
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Total quarterbacks selected in first round
Over 4.5 -200
Under 4.5 +160
Total offensive players selected in first round
Over 21.5 +140
Under 21.5 -175
First non-quarterback selected
Marvin Harrison Jr. -500
Malik Nabers +300
Joe Alt +1000
Rome Odunze +2800
Top-10 picks
Rome Odunze -1400
Joe Alt -1000
J.J. McCarthy -900
Dallas Turner -145
Brock Bowers +120
Olumuyiwa Fashanu +165
Laiatu Latu +185
Taliese Fuaga +210
Jared Verse +230
Quinyon Mitchell +370
Troy Fautanu +380
Best Fits
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Marvin Harrison Jr.: Arizona Cardinals
This combination is frequently mocked together, and that's great news for Harrison. (And for the Cardinals.)
Harrison has the talent to make an immediate impact. He is the No. 1 prospect on the B/R NFL Scouting Department's big board and the receiver they see as having the best hands and being the best route-runner and most pro-ready.
If he lands in Arizona, he should have ample opportunity to put that readiness on full display. Cardinals quarterback Kyler Murray has enjoyed success in this league and he desperately needs more pass-catchers following the free-agency departures of Marquise Brown and Rondale Moore.
Brock Bowers: New York Jets
Pass-catchers often only look as good as the players throwing passes to them, and Bowers would have a pretty decent one in the Big Apple. A healthy Aaron Rodgers can still be an MVP candidate; he was a back-to-back MVP over the 2020 and 2021 seasons.
The Jets have a win-right-now roster with difference-makers all over the offense: Rodgers under center, Breece Hall in the backfield and Mike Williams joining Garrett Wilson out wide. What they don't have is an elite tight end, though Bowers could change that in a hurry.
He is the second-best prospect in this draft, per B/R NFL Scouting Department's rankings, and a player they regard atop the position for his receiving, versatility and readiness.
"If you pay attention to the dynamic impact Bowers can bring to an offense, this isn't a hard sell," Brugler wrote after mocking Bowers to the Jets. "The Napa, Calif., native is as much a tight end as he is a slot receiver who can also block inline or line up outside. The Jets are in a win-now mindset, and Bowers makes the offense better from day one."
For all the latest betting information and reaction, check out B/R Betting.
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