Final 2024 Awards Predictions: Jokić, Wemby, Gobert Headed for Hardware
Before we shift into playoff mode, we have to put a bow on the 2023-24 NBA season by handing out hardware. That's right: It's time for our final set of NBA awards predictions.
Nikola Jokić is in search of his third MVP, while Victor Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren are battling it out in one of the most competitive Rookie of the Year races in years. Holmgren may not be able to overcome Wemby's historic efforts, but the Oklahoma City Thunder have several other serious awards contenders. The Thunder will not leave empty-handed.
Let's make it official. Here's who we think will be hoisting trophies.
MVP: Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets
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Some years, we get a landslide winner across key catch-all metrics, making the MVP pick obvious.
This isn't one of them.
Nikola Jokić leads the league in Box Plus/Minus (BPM), Value Over Replacement Player (VORP) and Estimated RAPTOR Wins Above Replacement. But Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is well ahead of the field in Dunks and Threes' Estimated Wins and Estimated Plus/Minus.
Jokić's biggest edge shows up most clearly in the on-off impact numbers, where he improves the Denver Nuggets' net rating by a league-high 23.8 points per 100 possessions. That gargantuan swing owes partly to Denver's lack of a quality backup to keep the machine running when Jokić sits.
In one sense, it doesn't seem quite right to reward Jokić because of what happens when he isn't on the floor. But in another, doesn't the fact that Denver falls apart without him demonstrate his value?
Beyond that, the eye test shows Jokić has a level of control over games that none of the other candidates for MVP can match. There are no defensive coverages that minimize his impact, no schemes that force him to play to his weaknesses. His size allows him to get wherever he wants on the floor, and the awe-inspiring processing power of his basketball brain produces the optimal pass-dribble-shoot decision seemingly every time.
At 26.4 points, 12.4 rebounds and 9.0 assists with a 64.6 true shooting percentage, Jokić has the basic stats some voters crave. His advanced metrics case holds up against anyone's. More than anything else, though, the Joker exhibits a kind of "I've solved this whole thing" mastery that elevates him above his peers.
Runner-Up: Shai Gilgeous Alexander
On track to become the fourth player in league history to average over 30.0 points per game on at least 60.0 percent true shooting while also swiping more than 2.0 steals per game, SGA is producing arguably the best two-way season by a guard since Michael Jordan.
Gilgeous-Alexander leads the league in drives for the fourth straight season, is averaging a career-high 6.3 assists and has upped his three-point accuracy and volume over the rates he produced last season, when he finished fifth in MVP voting. If there were an award to acknowledge the player whom defenders have the hardest time staying in front of, it'd go to SGA unanimously.
Despite all that, Gilgeous-Alexander has to settle for a second-place finish. He produced a spectacular season that cannot be criticized in any serious way. Sometimes great just gets overshadowed by greater.
Worth a Mention: Luka Dončić, Dallas Mavericks; Giannis Antetokounmpo, Milwaukee Bucks
DPOY: Rudy Gobert, Minnesota Timberwolves
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Rudy Gobert is the biggest reason why the Minnesota Timberwolves defended better than any team in the league this season. Their 107.7 defensive rating is almost three full points per 100 possessions better than the second-ranked Boston Celtics.
Gobert holds opponents to 48.1 percent shooting inside six feet, the lowest hit rate of any player who contests as many close-range shots as he does. Even more valuable than that, Gobert excels at dissuading offensive players from even trying to shoot. When he's on the floor, he suppresses attempts near the rim by 5.2 percentage points, which ranks in the 97th percentile among big men.
The interior play has been a given for years, but Gobert also appeared far more mobile in space this season. Few shot-blockers make their presence felt all over the floor like he can.
This may not be Gobert's best defensive season, but it'll be good enough to earn him a record-tying fourth DPOY.
Runner-Up: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
The league leader in stocks (steals plus blocks), Wembanyama is also tied for fifth in Defensive Estimated Plus/MInus, held opponents to 45.8 percent shooting on the 16.7 shots that he contested per game, and he reduced accuracy inside six feet by 11.2 percentage points when he was the primary defender.
Wembanyama was the only player to block 10 shots in a game this season, and his seven games with at least seven swats more than doubled up Chet Holmgren's second-place total of three.
With quick feet, unprecedented length and a high-revving motor, Wembanyama offered glimpses of his potential to become the best defensive player the sport has ever seen. He covers impossible amounts of space in a single stride, blocks threes from ridiculous distances and prevents players from attempting layups by simply being in the vicinity.
This runner-up slot could be the lowest DPOY finish we get from Wemby for a long time.
Worth a Mention: Bam Adebayo, Miami Heat; Anthony Davis, Los Angeles Lakers
Rookie of the Year: Victor Wembanyama, San Antonio Spurs
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San Antonio Spurs legend and Hall of Famer David Robinson can claim better rookie block and steal numbers than Victor Wembanyama, but the Admiral was 24 during his first NBA season. He had a four-year head start on Wemby, who joins Robinson as the only other rookie ever to block at least 250 shots and snag 80 steals.
Expand the statistical field to almost any degree, and Wembanyama stands alone among first-year players—not just this season, but among all-timers. He's the only rookie ever to post averages of at least 21.0 points, 10.0 rebounds, 3.0 assists and 3.0 blocks. And he's the only player in league history—rookie or otherwise—to produce those averages while also making at least 100 threes in a season.
Since the All-Star break, the Spurs are outscoring their opponents with Wembanyama on the floor. The margin—plus-2.6 points per 100 possessions—might seem modest, but the Spurs crumble (minus-8.4) without Wembanyama in the game.
Historic stats and a legitimate team-raising effect while surrounded by minimal talent? That's more than enough to secure Rookie of the Year, the first of a cascade of awards that should be flowing Wemby's way over the next several seasons.
Runner-Up: Chet Holmgren, Oklahoma City Thunder
Holmgren can console himself with the knowledge that his rookie year would have been award-worthy in many other seasons. Unfortunate timing put him up against Wembanyama, so he has to settle for second place.
With a 92nd percentile finish in Defensive Estimated Plus/Minus (Wemby resides in the 99th), 63.0 percent true shooting, a developed handle and three-level scoring chops, Holmgren is a major two-way contributor on a team with title aspirations. His case would be even stronger if there were evidence that Wembanyama is putting up his gaudy numbers without impacting winning, but that's just not the case.
Holmgren will be a star who figures to make several All-NBA appearances, possibly as soon as next season. But his rookie year wasn't of the undeniably historic variety. That's what it would have taken to contend with Wembanyama.
Worth a Mention: Brandon Miller, Charlotte Hornets; Brandin Podziemski, Golden State Warriors; Amen Thompson, Houston Rockets; Jaime Jaquez Jr., Miami Heat
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Sixth Man of the Year: Malik Monk, Sacramento Kings
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It takes more than a one-game statement make a case for Sixth Man of the Year, but Malik Monk's 39-point explosion in a 124-120 road win over the Minnesota Timberwolves on March 1 was too loud to ignore. That eruption saw Monk take down the league's top defense without All-Star teammate De'Aaron Fox, who missed the contest due to injury, and it showcased the scoring and playmaking that made Monk such a powerful force all year.
Monk is more than a gunner whose 98 clutch points rank 10th in the league and exceed the total of any other reserve. He also has the highest assist rate on drives of any player with at least 8.0 drives per game.
Monk's 547 fourth-quarter minutes (a top-30 mark leaguewide) show he can get his numbers in the toughest moments against opposing teams' top lineups. That distinguishes him from many other candidates who pile up stats against backups in lower-leverage situations.
Monk is a quality starter and closer who just happened to come off the bench.
Runner-Up: Naz Reid, Minnesota Timberwolves
Reid is a little like Monk in that he's overqualified to appear here and proved he was a starting-caliber player by taking over the injured Karl-Anthony Towns' first-unit gig down the stretch of the season.
As a starter, Reid averages 19.3 points and 7.5 rebounds per game while shooting 44.0 percent from three. It's rare for a backup to take on an increased role without giving up scoring efficiency or otherwise slipping statistically, but Reid proved he could handle more minutes without any negative tradeoffs.
Overall, the floor-stretching big man is averaging 13.6 points and 5.3 boards in only 24.4 minutes per game. But now we know he's capable of much more than that if given the opportunity.
Worth a Mention: Norman Powell, Los Angeles Clippers; Bogdan Bogdanović, Atlanta Hawks; Jonathan Isaac, Orlando Magic
Most Improved Player: Jalen Williams, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Jalen Williams finished second in Rookie of the Year voting last season, showcasing a game tailor-made for a highly valuable supporting role on a good team.
As it turns out, he had bigger things in mind.
In addition to blowing past last year's averages to post 19.5 points and 4.6 assists per game, Williams upped his efficiency to a staggering degree. His 62.3 true shooting percentage is well above last year's 60.1 percent, and it ranks eighth in the league among players who attempted at least 950 shots. That efficiency spike came on a much more difficult shot diet than Williams enjoyed last season, which makes it all the more impressive.
Last year, 90.4 percent of J-Dub's threes came via assists. That number is down to 75.0 percent this season, illustrating Williams' immense growth as a self-sufficient scorer. His blossoming mid-range game, improved handle and sneaky athleticism on drives made him a true three-level threat capable of getting buckets on his own from anywhere on the floor. Even on a team with the unstoppable Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, it was Williams who led the Oklahoma City Thunder in fourth-quarter scoring.
The leap from solid starter to star is one of the hardest to make, and Williams did it by adding completely new elements to his game.
Runner-Up: Coby White, Chicago Bulls
A clear starter and one of the best clutch players in the league this season, White has come a long way from where he was a year ago. In 2022-23, the Bulls point guard started only twice in 72 appearances and averaged 9.7 points per game on 57.2 percent true shooting.
If you weren't sure the 2019 No. 7 pick had a future as an impact player, you weren't alone after last season. However, White became a borderline star this year, juicing his scoring average to 18.9 points at an efficiency rate almost identical to last year's.
That's rare. More volume almost always means less efficiency.
White, who's still only 24, might have another leap in him. If he does, he'll be in line for some All-Star consideration. Not bad for a guy who was a shaky reserve just one year ago.
Worth a Mention: Jonathan Kuminga, Golden State Warriors; Alperen Sengün, Houston Rockets; Tyrese Maxey, Philadelphia 76ers
Clutch Player: DeMar DeRozan, Chicago Bulls
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DeMar DeRozan may only finish with the second-most points in the clutch this season, but his total of 177 comes on 53-of-106 shooting with a league-high 64 made free throws. More important than the numbers themselves is the fact that DeRozan's Chicago Bulls are a plus-95 in his 181 close-and-late minutes.
That's far and away the best plus-minus rating for any player with at least 100 clutch points. Just for comparison's sake, De'Aaron Fox won Clutch Player of the Year last season with 194 clutch points and a mere plus-24 plus-minus.
Considering Fox's 2022-23 Kings were 22-17 in clutch games while DeRozan's Bulls are currently an even better 24-15, the case for this year's winner is quite a bit stronger than the one we had last season.
Though he didn't match 2021-22's back-to-back game-winners against Indiana and Washington, or silence the crowd at Madison Square Garden with a game-winning and-1 bucket against the Knicks like he did in 2022-23, DeRozan's high-volume, high-efficiency game still made him the most impactful crunch-time offensive force in the league.
Runner-Up: Stephen Curry, Golden State Warriors
Curry's case takes a hit because his Warriors were only plus-19 in his 139 clutch minutes—a decent number, but nowhere near as good as the ones produced by DeRozan and others.
Steph will finish with more made clutch threes than the next two most prolific late-game snipers—Damian Lillard (13) and Buddy Hield (13)—combined. That he racked up his league-high 186 clutch points with one of the least helpful clutch supporting casts in the league should prevent this from being a DeRozan runaway win.
Maybe it's not fair to penalize Steph for late-game occurrences that are out of his control, like Golden State's bottom-five defensive rating in the clutch. Still, Curry's case has a wart or two, which can't be said of DeRozan's.
This is one of the closer races, but Chicago's late-game maestro had more success in tight spots than anyone else. So, it's appropriate DeRozan walks away with the narrow win.
Worth a Mention: Damian Lillard, Milwaukee Bucks; Nikola Jokić, Denver Nuggets; Coby White, Chicago Bulls
Coach of the Year: Mark Daigneault, Oklahoma City Thunder
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Youth and a lack of size are two of the most basic hindrances to NBA success. Mark Daigneault's Coach of the Year case might best be explained by the way he's helped the Oklahoma City Thunder overcome those two team-killing deficiencies.
Talent certainly helps. Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is a lock for the All-NBA first team, Jalen Williams is our pick for Most Improved Player, and Chet Holmgren is going to finish second in Rookie of the Year voting. Daigneault deserves credit for positioning those three to be the best versions of themselves.
He has the Thunder playing a spread-out style that supercharges SGA's drives. He primed Williams for a bigger facilitating role than many expected by allowing him to run second units as a point guard. He willingly accepted the rebounding issues that came with playing Holmgren as the lone big in order to get the most offensive value out of the rookie's game.
Beyond his management of OKC's top three players, Daigneault also kept more of the roster engaged by mixing and matching, routinely using at least 10 players per night and tweaking styles to accommodate the revolving door of subs. Oklahoma City will finish the year having allowed 13 players to log at least 10.0 minutes per game.
The Thunder surpassed their October prediction of 44 wins with more than a month left in the season. So we can add "dramatically exceeding expectations" to the list of reasons why Daigneault deserves this award.
Runner-Up: Joe Mazzulla, Boston Celtics
The Celtics added two new starters in Jrue Holiday and Kristaps Porziņģis as part of an offseason overhaul that was intriguing on paper but potentially tricky to manage in practice. It's easy to look at the raw top-end talent and assume Boston would have won a ton of games on autopilot, but that diminishes the tactical and cultural questions Mazzulla had to answer.
It wasn't clear Porziņģis would be so valuable against mismatches, but Mazzulla made KP post-ups a staple of Boston's attack. And it can't have been easy to get everyone in the first unit to embrace the sacrifice required for ultimate success. Holiday, for example, is averaging fewer points than he has in any season since 2009-10, but he hasn't issued even a whisper of dissatisfaction.
Al Horford had come off the bench four times in over 1,000 appearances prior to this season, when he logged more than 30 games as a reserve. Jayson Tatum took fewer shots than he had since 2019-20.
Mazzulla pushed all the right buttons, managed egos and got maximum buy-in from all parties involved. And if you want to disregard all that and simply focus on Boston winning more games than anybody else by a wide margin, that's probably enough to justify runner-up status by itself.
Worth a Mention: Jamahl Mosley, Orlando Magic; Tom Thibodeau, New York Knicks; Chris Finch, Minnesota Timberwolves; Ime Udoka, Houston Rockets
Executive of the Year: Brad Stevens, Boston Celtics
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It took real guts to bust up a relatively young Boston Celtics core that reached the NBA Finals in 2022 and had made a habit of winning multiple playoff series over the last half-decade. Though it's harder to remember now that Boston has produced the league's only 60-win season, the moves that team president Brad Stevens made to take the Celtics from very good to great felt risky when he made them.
Marcus Smart was the heart and soul of the team and was only a year removed from winning DPOY. Robert Williams III was the free safety in a frequently dominant defense. Malcolm Brogdon had just won Sixth Man of the Year. Grant Williams averaged 24.8 minutes per game in the 2023 Eastern Conference Finals and had played major roles in four separate postseason runs.
Stevens moved on from all of them, turning instead to Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday. The results speak for themselves: Boston dominated the regular season like no other team, in large part because of the deals it swung over the summer.
Runner-Up: Rafael Stone, Houston Rockets
It's worth wondering whether Stone deserves a demerit for making a huge offer to Brook Lopez that the veteran center walked away from. If that deal had been consummated, Alperen Şengün might not have broken out in a larger role, and much may have been different for the Houston Rockets.
With that said, Fred VanVleet and Dillon Brooks were shrewd signings who brought experience and toughness, redefining the Rockets overnight. Perhaps even more critical in shedding Houston's loose and unserious image of the last three years: new head coach Ime Udoka.
Throw in Amen Thompson at No. 4 and Cam Whitmore at No. 20 in the draft, and Stone nailed the signing, drafting and hiring trifecta.
Worth a Mention: Leon Rose, New York Knicks; Mike Dunleavy Jr., Golden State Warriors; Koby Altman, Cleveland Cavaliers
Stats courtesy of NBA.com, Basketball Reference and Cleaning the Glass. Accurate entering games April 9. Salary info via Spotrac.
Grant Hughes covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on Twitter (@gt_hughes), and subscribe to the Hardwood Knocks podcast, where he appears with Bleacher Report's Dan Favale.
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