Evaluating the Top 2024 Hart Trophy Candidates as the NHL's MVP

Folks, we're two weeks out from the end of the regular season, and it's time to do something particularly daunting this time around: Genuinely evaluate the Hart Trophy contenders.

It's daunting, of course, because it's been the most awesome season for individual performances in years. There's been other-worldly consistency in players like Nathan MacKinnon and Nikita Kucherov, just as impressive comebacks in players like Connor McDavid, and more scoring than we've seen in decades from players like Auston Matthews.

How does it all stack up? It's subjective, and that's what makes it fun. Let's dive in.

Connor McDavid, Edmonton Oilers

We have to be careful when it comes to Connor McDavid, and we have to remember that when we're voting for these awards, we're providing a sort of archive about hockey history.

There's a fatigue that comes up around McDavid, and we can't decide to not vote for him because we're bored of doing it. We also can't look for reasons not to vote for him.

When I'm voting for the Hart, I like to put all of the contestants' metrics in front of me with no name and some random avatar photo. When it comes to McDavid, it was easy to get excited that a different field would emerge after his slow start to the season, and it did. But we can't let the excitement of new contenders or opinions we had at the beginning of the season taint the objective field at the end of it all.

McDavid has ended up complicating things with his post-injury, assist-heavy recent tear. In mid-January, he ranked seventh in the NHL in scoring, 15 points behind the MacKinnon-Kucherov race. He's since had 59 points in 28 games, a 172-point pace in an 82-game season. But it's all about what he did throughout the season, as impressive as his resurgence has been.

As we've said, an interpretation of the Hart Trophy is the player that means the most to their team. What if the team needed the best player in the world to step back for a few weeks? Now the team is on fire due to multiple players that aren't McDavid. But this is an award for individual performance.

At the same time, McDavid's 97 assists in 72 games are a career-high already and are nothing to scoff at as he has elevated his game differently. Especially proportionally, when McDavid was struggling more than ever earlier this season, his comeback in the form of assists and the team around him flourishing is Hart conversation-worthy.

But if you're putting random avatars on all of these seasons and having me pick one, I'm not going with McDavid this year.

Nathan MacKinnon, Colorado Avalanche

Nathan MacKinnon has long been one of the best players in the league, and before this season this was mostly highlighted by how he led the Avalanche to the Cup in 2022. He's yet to win the Hart, but he's been runner-up twice, most notably in 2018, losing to Taylor Hall as he dragged the Devils to the playoffs.

This year might be MacKinnon's best opportunity to finally win despite the insanely stacked competition. He recorded at least a point at home in the first 35 home games of the season, falling five games short of Wayne Gretzky's home point streak record. He's been neck-and-neck with Nikita Kucherov all season in straight points, but after they both recorded three Thursday, Kucherov leads with 133 and MacKinnon currently trails with 130. MacKinnon's got the 48-43 edge in goals and the underlying metrics tell an interesting story.

According to NaturalStatTrick.com, MacKinnon leads all players in even-strength points with 72 (McDavid ranks second with 68, Kucherov ranks third with 61 -- 11 fewer than MacKinnon). MacKinnon is second to only Rocket Richard lock Auston Matthews in even-strength goals, trailing by one with 33. (Oh, and Zach Hyman is tied for Matthews in even-strength goals, what a season he's having!)

MacKinnon trails only Owen Tippett at five-on-five rush attempts, he's been perhaps the most consistent player at even-strength point production and on both ends of the ice, and there's the off-ice leadership factor and standard of excellence that matters for the Avs.

Nikita Kucherov, Tampa Bay Lightning

Nikita Kucherov has been an interesting subject since the Tampa Bay Lightning started winning since he emerged in 2014-15. He's always one of the top scorers in the league, but rarely feels like he's seriously considered in the Hart Trophy conversation.

This has changed this season.

Has it been an optics issue with the timing? Kucherov was revolutionary when the rest of his team was right there with him so he perhaps didn't stand out as much, and now as his team is (sort of) declining, scoring is back up in the NHL -- perhaps making him not stand out differently.

But his current tear has made him a lock for at least the top three, even with such a deep field.

Now, he's doing what he's always been doing, and he's getting better at what he hasn't always done (assists!) He currently leads the entire league in points with 133 and No. 2 in assists with 90 in 75 games, while his 43 goals rank No. 7. Perhaps the surge of assists over goals actually helps Kucherov's case, considering he's doing more of what the team desperately has needed him to do.

Analyst Mike Kelly had an excellent observation this week that really put Nikita Kucherov's current tear into perspective:

Make it eight after Thursday's game.

Part of the definition of the Hart Trophy is the player most important to his team. Kucherov has the third-largest gap in points among teammates in the salary-cap era. Is part of this due to the boom in scoring, with more 100+ points players than we've seen in years? Yes. Kelly's tweet also shows that Kucherov's closest teammate, Brayden Point, has 82 points -- a higher floor than anyone else on the graphic.

Kucherov has been the most consistent player in the Hart contention conversation, and by classic definition, it would be incomprehensible if he doesn't make the top three.

He was the anchor at the beginning of the season when the rest of the team struggled and Andrei Vasilevskiy was out.

But the drop off in even strength is a bit troubling. He's got 11 fewer points than leader MacKinnon at five-on-five. It comes down to an essential question that may differ from voter to voter: Is this about whoever made the biggest impact on the team just winning, or how the team won?

David Pastrňák, Boston Bruins

David Pastrňák feels underrated in the same way Kucherov does.

Speaking of that one Mike Kelly stat, you'll notice Pastrňák is the team points disparity record-holder right above Kucherov, with 113 points in 2022-23, compared to second-best. Marchand is at 67.

He's been typecast as someone who can only score next to David Krejčí or Patrice Bergeron all his life, and now he's on pace to match his scoring record without them, with 46 goals and 104 points in 76 games so far.

Pastrňák has consistency and balance going for him. He's perhaps the most even record of the gang, with 47 goals and 59 assists, and ranks No. 5 among all skaters, four points behind Artemi Panarin. While this year is encouraging for a future Hart trophy, showing Pastrňák is putting up potentially a record season after signing his monster contract and without his usual centers, the field is just too robust this year.

Artemi Panarin, New York Rangers

Artemi Panarin has had, by far, the best season of his career with 45 goals and 110 points. In many seasons, especially many he's lived through now that he's plus-30, this would guarantee him the Hart.

This is not one of those seasons.

He's also living with the disadvantage McDavid is -- the rest of the team has been proportionately great, whereas a Kucherov for example is significantly outscoring his teammates.

Panarin's 45 goals rank sixth among all skaters and his 110 points rank fourth. Considering the context of the Rangers' season, McDavid's resurgence to outscore Panarin by 16, and Kucherov and MacKinnon in front of both of them, it probably isn't happening for the Breadman this year. But boy, he's been fun to watch.

Auston Matthews, Toronto Maple Leafs

How much do goals actually matter when it comes to the Hart Trophy? We're about to find out, as Auston Matthews has 63 in 74 games. The next closest is Florida's Sam Reinhart with 53 in 77 games. Matthews has flat out been a beast this season, and a blast to watch.

There are so many different ways to interpret the Hart that I respect. You can look at it simply -- goals give your team the biggest opportunity to win, and Matthews has the clear lead over everyone with the pure goals. He's currently scoring at a .85 per game rate, the highest since Mario Lemieux went .99 per game in 1995-96. He's on pace for the first 65-goal season since Alex Ovechkin in 2007-08. If he hits 70, he'll be the first since 1992-93.

You can also argue that there's a whole separate award for that. William Nylander is having a career season, too, and the rest of the team is one of the most consistent regular-season cores in the league -- despite what may happen in the playoffs. Matthews did notch eight goals in 11 games when trusty linemate Mitch Marner was out of the lineup, though.

Some voters may scoff at this on the surface, but when you look into what Matthews is doing, it's more than just scoring goals. It's scoring a historic amount of goals during a season full of historic amounts of goal-scoring.