Biggest NBA Winners and Losers from March
The penultimate month of the 2023-24 NBA regular season is in the books, and a number of winners and losers emerged from this March.
Below, you'll find the biggest examples on both sides of that ledger. But first, a word on those designations.
Of course, just because a player or team might be deemed a "loser" now doesn't mean he (or it) is stuck there. Take Jalen Green, for example. Plenty were down on him earlier this season, but an electrifying month has completely changed the perception of him (more on that later).
The other side of that coin can come into play too. The biggest winners of this month could certainly fall upon harder times in April and beyond.
And with that out of the way, let's dive into the actual list.
Winner: Luka Dončić
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This certainly isn't indicative of how the official vote will go in a few weeks, but Luka Dončić recently moved up to No. 2 (behind Nikola Jokić) on the NBA's MVP Ladder.
And after the March he's had, it's easy to see why.
This month, Luka put up 31.4 points, 10.3 assists, 10.0 rebounds and 3.8 threes. And his Dallas Mavericks went 10-3 in games he played.
Beyond the numbers, Dončić's ball-dominant, heliocentric style has never been leveraged for team success quite like it's been in recent weeks.
His willingness to defer to Kyrie Irving has led to wins and one of the wildest buzzer-beating game winners of all time. Adding Daniel Gafford to a frontcourt rotation that already includes Dereck Lively II has given him nearly 48 minutes of high-end rim-running to play with. And he's generally looked more engaged defensively.
With this version of Luka in action and his supporting cast suddenly healthy, Dallas is starting to look like a bona fide contender.
Loser: Draymond Green
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Draymond Green's numbers in March (7.1 points, 8.0 rebounds and 5.7 assists) have generally been fine. His three-point percentage was a woeful 19.4 percent, but Golden State still won his minutes for the month.
The real problems are that the Warriors lost six games with Green in the lineup in March, shrinking their lead over the Houston Rockets for 10th place to a single game. And even worse than that, the antics that contributed to a pair of suspensions earlier this season seem to be back in full force.
On March 26, he clotheslined Patty Mills for having the gall to set a screen on him. The next day, he berated official Ray Acosta to the point he had to be ejected mere minutes into the game, a display that earned visible disappointment from Stephen Curry. And on Friday, he got away with an attempted kick to the groin of Grant Williams.
All of this in a span of less than a week, in the middle of a heated race for the final play-in spot and on what feels like the verge of a potential offseason breakup of a legendary core makes Draymond seem like a relatively easy inclusion here.
Winner: Boston Celtics
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The Boston Celtics may have lost four games this month, but disappointment over that may prove little more than how much this team spoiled us to this point.
Boston going 11-4 this month has it within three wins of 60 for the season. No one else is going to get to that threshold.
Despite the losses, the Celtics still had the best net rating in March, outscoring opponents by 16.0 points per 100 possessions.
They beat the Golden State Warriors by 52 points, the Dallas Mavericks by 28 and the Phoenix Suns by double-digits twice. More recently, they beat the second-place Milwaukee Bucks.
Boston's foot may not be on the gas quite as aggressively as it was earlier in the season. It's hard to maintain that level of intensity when the gap between first and second is as big as it is (11 whopping games).
And yet, the Celtics raised their season-long net rating.
Loser: Toronto Raptors
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The biggest team disaster of the month almost certainly has to be the Toronto Raptors.
At 1-13, they had the worst record. They were outscored by a league-worst 15.5 points per 100 possessions. Scottie Barnes played a total of 16 minutes.
And all their current 12-game skid did was move them to the sixth best odds to land the No. 1 pick in the 2024 draft.
Mediocrity for the first few months of the season didn't just contribute to them missing the play-in, it made it impossible for them to truly join the race to the bottom.
Winner: Minnesota Timberwolves
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It would've been pretty easy for the Minnesota Timberwolves to feel down on their luck when Karl-Anthony Towns went down with a knee injury during his third game in March.
Without his ability to space the floor from the perimeter, the T'Wolves offense could easily have collapsed.
Instead, they went 9-5, had the seventh-best net rating in the month and stayed in the hunt for first place in the West.
Just this week, they completely dominated the Denver Nuggets from wire to wire... and in Denver.
And since KAT left the rotation, Anthony Edwards has averaged 26.5 points, 7.0 rebounds, 5.5 assists and 2.1 threes.
Loser: Utah Jazz
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Much like the Toronto Raptors in the East, the Utah Jazz played just well enough over the first few months of the season to give fans a hint of hope they might make the play-in tournament.
But for the second season in a row, the Jazz followed middle-of-the-road play in the first half of the season with a dreadful second half.
The 2023-24 team is 2-12 in March with a minus-9.6 net rating. And again, like Toronto, that hasn't really put them in the mix for top draft lottery odds.
So, for the second summer in a row, Utah will likely have a pick just outside the range from which stars usually emerge.
It won't be as disappointing in 2024. This class doesn't have a prospect like Victor Wembanyama. And it looks like the Jazz might really have something in Keyonte George.
But straddling the line between being competitive and truly bottoming out may be costing Utah some talent.
Winner: Giannis Antetokounmpo
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Giannis Antetokounmpo missing three games in March with injuries might've been concerning if not for his truly outrageous production in the games he played.
Among players with at least 100 minutes this month, Giannis is second in box plus/minus (more on the one player ahead of him in a few slides).
In his 10 appearances, he's averaging 31.4 points, 13.1 rebounds, 10.6 free-throw attempts, 6.9 assists and 1.0 blocks.
His Milwaukee Bucks may have lost a handful of games it shouldn't have, but Giannis' improved individual play should have him firmly in the MVP discussion for the sixth straight season.
Loser: Knicks' Deadline Pickups
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Don't worry, New York Knicks fans, we'll get more positive about your squad in a bit.
And while there's certainly some value in just being off the Detroit Pistons, recently acquired Alec Burks and Bojan Bogdanović have struggled to make a positive impact in New York.
In March alone, Burks has a minus-5.0 box plus/minus, while Bogdanović is a league-worst minus-9.7. For context's sake, anything below minus-2.0 is considered to be the level of an "end-of-bench" player.
There may yet be a moment when either or both of these wings have a moment for their new team, but if they play like this much longer, they might not even be in the playoff rotation.
Winner: Fans of More Physical Play
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Even not-so-careful observers of the NBA likely noticed a change in how games were called following the All-Star break.
Some of the tricks that seemed guaranteed to draw free-throw attempts over the first few months of the season—like drivers veering into defenders, jump shooters falling upon landing and flops in general—were no longer met with whistles.
And after the buzz grew loud enough in reaction to the changes, the league released a memo all but confirming everyone's suspicions and taking at least partial credit for a decline in scoring.
There's no doubt the game suddenly looks different than it did a few months ago. And while it's still nothing like the slobber-knocking style of the 1990s and early 2000s (which is a good thing), it's a little closer to that style on the spectrum.
And for fans of physical play and defense, this should be a welcome change.
Loser: Players Reliant on Free Throws
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The other side of that, of course, is a potential scoring decline for those who previously generated a ton of trips to the line.
Players like Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Trae Young, Joel Embiid, Paolo Banchero and others had all pretty much mastered the old rules. And while they're all good enough to adjust, adjusting is something they'll likely have to do.
Due to injuries, we haven't seen the way it will (or might) impact Embiid or Young, but SGA averaged 31.2 points and 8.9 free-throw attempts prior to March, compared to 26.9 points and 7.4 free-throw attempts this month. Luka went from 34.4 points and 9.3 free-throw attempts to 31.4 and 7.7. Paolo went from 22.8 points and 7.2 free-throw attempts to 21.4 and 5.5.
Again, from a league-wide perspective, the change is almost certainly a good thing. Watching some possessions devolve into mere grifting, rather than an attempt to score, was, to put it mildly, frustrating.
But there's also no doubt this will affect (and in some cases, already has affected) some of the game's highest-profile scorers.
Winner: Jonathan Isaac
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This was alluded to in the Giannis Antetokounmpo slide, but you were likely expecting Nikola Jokić, Luka Dončić or some other star to be the answer to "Who's the only player with a higher box plus/minus than Giannis in March?"
It's neither. That honor goes to Jonathan Isaac, who may deserve as much credit as anyone for this much-earlier-than-expected surge into the playoffs by the Orlando Magic.
For the entire season, the team is plus-191 with Isaac on the floor. That mark comes from just 783 minutes, and it's the best individual, raw plus-minus on the entire team. It's minus-54 when Isaac is off the floor.
That impact is mostly a product of Isaac's dynamic, versatile and often highlight-generating defense, but his overall numbers are impressive too.
In March, Isaac is averaging 21.6 points, 10.8 rebounds, 3.2 blocks and 1.6 steals per 75 possessions, with an 83.1(!) true shooting percentage.
All of this is still happening in a limited role (at least in terms of minutes), but Isaac having this kind of breakout after the number and degree of injuries he dealt with over the four seasons prior to this one makes this one of 2023-24's best stories.
Loser: LaMelo Ball
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It always feels a little weird slapping the "loser" distinction on a player for injuries. They aren't really in LaMelo Ball's control, but it's also hard to ignore the impact his lack of durability has had on the Charlotte Hornets.
Earlier this month, news broke that he would miss the remainder of this season, after only playing in 22 games. Through four seasons, he's only made 184 appearances, or 46 per year.
And while his production hasn't always translated to winning basketball, it's been nearly impossible to replace Ball's 21.6 points and 7.9 assists (his averages over the last three seasons).
Ideally, as early as next season, we'll be able to look back on this stretch as merely a stepping stone for Ball. Right now, the injuries are undoubtedly impacting the way we see his career.
Winner: Zion Williamson
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Just a few months after we were hit with a wave of stories about Zion Williamson's lack of commitment and control over his weight, he once again looks like the dominant version of himself that's flirted with MVP candidacy in prior seasons.
This month, it was reported that Zion has lost 25 pounds since the in-season tournament, and he and his New Orleans Pelicans have taken off as a result of his transformation.
In March, Zion is putting up 24.0 points, 7.0 rebounds, 4.8 assists, 1.2 steals and 0.9 blocks. And the Pelicans are 10-3 with a plus-10.1 net rating.
With this version of Williamson in action, New Orleans is a very real threat to win a first-round series.
Loser: James Harden
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One of the New Orleans Pelicans' potential first-round opponents, the Los Angeles Clippers, are headed in the opposite direction.
They're barely above .500 and a perfectly even net rating in March. And their defensive rating (points allowed per 100 possessions) is firmly in the bottom 10 this month.
There are multiple potential culprits to point to for the decline, but the most obvious is probably James Harden.
His defense has seemingly regressed back to the disengaged style he's played in years past. And he's averaging just 15.3 points while shooting 40.2 percent from the field and 32.7 percent from deep in March.
Winner: LeBron James
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The Los Angeles Lakers went 8-5 in March, solidified their grasp on ninth place in the West and maybe even put themselves within striking distance of eighth.
And they largely have 39-year-old LeBron James to thank for that.
Beyond leading his team in box plus/minus in March, LeBron averaged 24.8 points, 9.4 assists and 8.5 rebounds, while shooting 55.3 percent from the field.
In case you haven't heard this before, this is a truly absurd level of play for someone LeBron's age. In fact, it'd never been done before.
In 11 March games, James has 273 points, 103 assists and 93 rebounds. No one else in NBA history matched or exceeded all three of those totals over any 11-game span after a 39th birthday.
Loser: Tyrese Haliburton
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Tyrese Haliburton's cold spell extends back a little further than March, but we'll still use that change in the calendar as the dividing line.
From the start of the season through the end of February, Haliburton averaged 21.4 points and 11.6 assists, while shooting 39.3 percent from deep.
Since then, he's at 16.7 points and 9.1 assists, with a 27.3 three-point percentage.
And even though it looks like he'll hit the minimum 65-game threshold to qualify for postseason awards that he was worried about back in January, this run could cost him an All-NBA nod anyway.
Catch-all metrics still suggest Haliburton has been a top-10 player this season, but recency bias often goes a long way with voters.
Winner: Jalen Green
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On multiple levels, this month has been more than a win for Jalen Green.
Beyond his team's 13-1 record in March, a stretch that has the Houston Rockets within striking distance of a play-in spot, and Green's 28.9 points, 4.1 threes and 3.9 assists, the perception of Green has completely changed.
Just a few weeks ago, there were still loud and probably reasonable questions about whether Green made sense as a longterm fit for the Rockets. His inefficiency as a scorer and questionable decision-making were problems for Houston's starting five. His name even bubbled up in trade rumors around the deadline.
But his shots are falling now. He's more than taking advantage of a floor spread wide open by Jabari Smith Jr. sliding into the 5 spot. His playmaking for himself and others is a huge part of this Houston winning streak.
And now, it's almost impossible to imagine the Rockets giving up on the 22-year-old.
Loser: Brooklyn Nets
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There are plenty of teams that have been worse than the Brooklyn Nets in March. Going 6-9 with a minus-1.4 net rating sounds more like "mediocre" than "loser," but the Nets still get the distinction because of where they are organizationally.
This month served as a reminder that Brooklyn might be in the worst shape of any team in the league, because they don't have a single star (or surefire future star). They're already leveraged to the hilt in terms of draft assets. They don't control their own first-round pick till 2029.
The Nets are stuck.
And the likeliest way to get unstuck is by simply waiting out the next few years (unless someone bails them out with a trade offer for Mikal Bridges).
Winner: Dejounte Murray
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Dejounte Murray had one of the highlights of the month, when he beat the Boston Celtics with a game-winning buzzer-beater that was his 44th shot of the night on March 28.
That performance brought his averages for the month to 27.1 points, 9.0 assists, 5.2 rebounds, 4.0 threes and 2.3 steals, with a 38.6 three-point percentage.
And that production has helped the Atlanta Hawks solidify their spot in the play-in tournament, while also setting them up to challenge the Chicago Bulls for ninth place between now and the end of the season.
The biggest "win," though, might be the clarification this run is potentially providing for the organization ahead of the 2024 offseason.
The last two years have made it pretty hard to buy into the longterm fit between Murray and Trae Young. And if the Hawks choose to trade one of their high-volume guards, Young is likely to fetch the bigger haul.
This month, Murray has shown he might be able to carry the team as the unquestioned lead ball-handler.
Loser: Teams That Missed out on Victor Wembanyama
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We're running this back from last month's "winners and losers," but Victor Wembanyama just keeps adding to the list of performances that has to have last season's tankers (or near-tankers) regretting not chasing the bottom of the standings harder.
The latest came on Friday, when Wemby went for an absurd 40 points, 20 rebounds, seven assists, four threes, two steals and one block in an overtime win over the New York Knicks.
For the month of March, he's at 22.4 points, 11.9 rebounds, 4.7 assists and 3.9 blocks.
And he's now putting up season-long averages that have only been achieved by legendary big men Kareem Abdul-Jabbar and Hakeem Olajuwon. Catch-all numbers suggest he's already a borderline All-NBA candidate.
All of this, and the 7'4" Frenchman is just 20 years old. He may already be a top 15-20 player, and he's only going to get better.
Winner: Jalen Brunson
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If any team could've used injuries as an excuse to fold, it was the New York Knicks. They didn't, almost entirely because of Jalen Brunson.
Friday, he went for 61 points. And if we drop his first game in March (when he only played 47 seconds), he's averaged 31.3 points, 6.2 assists and 3.1 threes this month.
And for the entire season, Brunson has now had to play over 800 minutes without any of OG Anunoby, Julius Randle and Mitchell Robinson on the floor.
The Knicks are plus-6.1 points per 100 possessions in those situations.
This surge is going to make it very difficult to keep Brunson off an All-NBA squad.
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