Analyzing the Race for the Final NHL Playoffs Spots in the Eastern Conference
The Eastern Conference playoff race has grown frustrating for people who like patterns, order, and/or being right.
Teams like the Red Wings and the Flyers have cooled off after streaks that have been equal parts fun and almost too easy for where they're at with their respective franchises. Teams like Washington look exactly how a team looks when you trade away the core (out of necessity), but you still have the best goal-scorer of the generation kicking around. Teams like the Islanders are showing us their start to the season, negative goal-differential and overtime points and all, is actually who they are.
The Sabres? Well, they're Sabres-ing.
Somehow it's almost April, so it's time to look at the Eastern Conference bubble and see where these playoff hopeful teams are realistically at.
Tampa Bay Lightning
1 of 7
Current record: 38-25-6 (82 points)
Current standing: First wild-card spot
Current first-round matchup: New York Rangers
Current vibe: That'll play
The hallmark of the Tampa Bay Lightning dynasty has been the team's ability to turn on the gas precisely when needed -- no sooner, no later. With Andrei Vasilevskiy's early injury and an aging core, though, we thought this year could be the end of that switch-flipping ability.
Maybe we were wrong.
The Lightning are only picking up steam as the season progresses, going 7-2-1 in their last 10, and are riding a five-game win streak. What's most impressive, and what's most "classic Lightning" about this post-trade deadline tear is how they're playing against other playoff teams. In the past two weeks, they blanked the Flyers 7-0, beat the Rangers 6-3, beat the No. 1 Panthers 5-3, beat the reigning champion Golden Knights 5-3 and breezed by the hapless Sharks 4-1.
Tampa is heating up as other teams in the Eastern Conference playoff race like the Flyers and Islanders are slumping, which is so on brand for the dynasty that refuses to say die.
Hart trophy contender Nikita Kucherov looks better than ever in all aspects of his game as he leads the team with 41 goals and 122 points in 68 games. Brayden Point is right behind in goals with 38, and Victor Hedman is having one of his strongest seasons in recent memory with a point-per-game average and a plus-14 rating.
Mind you, they're holding down the East's No. 1 Wild Card spot with a sub-.900 save percentage from Vasilevskiy. Imagine he kicks into his typical playoff form just in time.
Philadelphia Flyers
2 of 7
Current record: 35-26-9 (79 points)
Current standing: No. 3 seed in the Metropolitan Division
Current first-round matchup: Hurricanes
Current vibes: Weathering the first unpopular John Tortorella decision
The Flyers have struggled mightily after trading defensive breakout anchor Sean Walker, and, as always when it comes to John Tortorella, we were waiting to see what he had cooking at the end of the honeymoon period.
So, he benched Sean Couturier for the first time in his career only weeks after naming him captain of the team.
The drama around benching is overblown. It's not the end of the world to sit a player out to gain some perspective, so long as we don't make it a big deal. Unfortunately, everyone has made it a big deal.
Regardless of the principle, Couturier only had one goal in two months and was getting outscored while playing 5-on-5 while the Flyers went from a Cinderella story to a bit concerning.
Was it all Couturier's fault that the team was sliding? Of course not. This team didn't have high expectations to begin with, a lot of the big players are still very young, they lost their No. 1 goalie, and they traded away one of their most important defensemen.
But when you're the captain of a Tortorella-coached team, that dip in individual play is unacceptable when the team needs a spark. It just is what it is. Since benching the captain, the Flyers are 1-0-1, which isn't ideal, but perhaps it's a spark to build on.
Detroit Red Wings
3 of 7
Current record: 36-28-6 (78 points)
Current standing: Clinging to the No. 2 Wild Card spot
Current first-round matchup: Bruins
Current vibe: A really fun rollercoaster, but the rackety, wooden kind your fearless 8th-grade best friend peer pressured you to join them on.
Some are pointing to the Wings' comeback over the Blue Jackets as a concern and a need to "show up earlier," I sort of think that's the exact game they needed. Just gut it out and find a way to win as you get back on track.
Detroit has been the biggest rollercoaster ride of the season, with one of the hottest stretches in the league in the first two months of 2024, followed by a March implosion. Perhaps more frustrating than the results themselves is that you can't pinpoint exactly what has changed.
Other than the gaping hole captain Dylan Larkin's injury has left in the lineup, I mean. Perhaps some of us have been underestimating the impact Larkin truly has on the team's complexion because he's been there throughout the dark years.
Still, we know solid teams don't implode due to any one player's absence -- not even their No. 1 center.
But Larkin returned to the lineup Thursday, immediately scored, and injected some confidence back into the team, resulting in a 6-3 win over the Islanders. Where does this even leave us with these Red Wings?
They aren't a Cup team, which we knew. They aren't a complete lock for the playoffs, which we also knew and accepted at the beginning of this season. This team is a reminder of how quickly expectations can change, and the power of an extremely hot streak.
When everything is said and done with the Red Wings, it might be fun to watch a team with high enough upside squeak into the playoffs and see what happens, especially with Patrick Kane stepping up and Larkin back.
I do worry about the ridiculous workload Moritz Seider carries -- he's logging 22:08 per game --, and these past few months have identified the next steps needed in the Yzerplan: At least one (1) better goaltender, and some defensive depth.
How about we enjoy this ride for whatever it is and continue to trust the plan to keep planning in the offseason?
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Washington Capitals
4 of 7
Current record: 33-26-9 (75 points)
Current standing: Three points out of No. 2 Wild Card spot
Current first-round matchup: N/A
Current vibe: The old, beloved family dog you bought a puppy for to get a second wind
We all have our preferences when it comes to what makes an exciting hockey team. Over the years, I've realized any bubble team with a negative goal differential is going to make me groan a bit (meanwhile, any genuinely bad team with a super high negative goal differential is going to amuse me to no end).
The Capitals, who are currently rocking with a -31 goal differential, seemed totally out of contention a month or so ago. But young goalie Charlie Lindgren has been an awesome story keeping them afloat, the young guys are emerging ahead of schedule, and after a concerning stretch, Alex Ovechkin is on fire again with 49 goals to go before breaking Wayne Gretzky's record.
The team has been brutal at five-on-five, ranking 29th at five-on-five goals percentage. They're only slightly better on the power play touting out the best sniper of our time.
So how does a stinky goal differential team end up here, dangerously close to a playoff spot? It feels like every team in the East playoff conversation is actively trying to lose games. Second, Washington keeps closing out close games lately.
Look, I'm not going to hate on the Capitals if they end up squeezing into the playoffs (and it's honestly trending that way). Good for them for hanging on and refusing to throw in the towel. But the first-round matchup here will really matter, and I cannot imagine a world in which they give any of the top teams in the East much of a fight.
New York Islanders
5 of 7
Current record: 29-25-15 (73 points)
Current standing: Five points out of the No. 2 Wild Card spot
Current first-round matchup: N/A
Current vibes: Rapidly deteriorating
The Islanders have dropped six straight games, five of which have been by three or more goals. Again, never trust a hot team with a negative goal differential.
As I'll say with the Golden Knights and their tactics -- the rules are the rules. The Islanders have earned each point in their overtime losses fair and square. But it's never meant they are a good team, and as the wheels are falling off due to lack of scoring, the same problems the team has had from the start are coming back to bite them once again.
Color me shocked!
A coaching change to Patrick Roy gave the team some buzz and juice, but the excitement has already worn off.
Ilya Sorokin is one of the best goaltenders in the league, but even at his best he cannot score a goal -- and he hasn't always been at his best this season. Any good vibes in Islandersland contrived from a chip on the shoulder about the goal differential and overtime losses are deteriorating at this point. The team is showing itself.
New Jersey Devils
6 of 7
Current record: 34-32-4 (72 points)
Current standing: Six points out of No. 2 Wild Card spot
Current first-round matchup: N/A
Current vibes: Yikes
The Devils' last chance to make a big playoff push was probably blown as they've gone 4-7-0 in their last 11 and are barely showing signs of life. They've gotten into such a bad pattern that every time they do show a sign of life -- like last night's win over the mighty Jets -- it just feels too little too late. You saw that vibe all over the Hughes brothers' faces in their postgame interviews.
When we look back at their season, that March 1 lifeless loss to the Ducks is probably where we say "Yeah, that's when New Jersey officially gave up."
But Jake Allen is giving the team hope. He's got a .946 save percentage since being traded to New Jersey and the Devils are going to need more superhuman play from him if they have any chance of making the playoffs.
Thursday's 4-1 win over the Jets gives them the slightest of sparks. But if you're behind these Islanders and Capitals squads in terms of points when it feels like both teams are actively trying to lose, I really don't know what to tell you.
Buffalo Sabres
7 of 7
Current record: 33-33-5 (71 points)
Current standing: Seven points out of No. 2 Wild Card spot
Current first-round matchup: N/A
Current vibes: Suspicious
Folks, I tried to bury my head in the sand and pretend this wasn't happening. I've avoided digging into the Sabres' late-season resurgence for perhaps too long, assuming they'd lose a few key games and fade away.
But the teams around them are falling apart to various degrees. Meanwhile, the Sabres have stabilized since the Trade Deadline.
That said, they're cooling off once again at 4-5-1 in their last 10. Last weekend's loss to the Red Wings had huge implications in particular. While there's a debate going on about if it was rude of the Oilers to beat Buffalo 8-3 last night, I actually think it was more polite than any other outcome. Thank you, Oilers, for giving us mercy and reminding us that this team simply doesn't have what it takes yet again.
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