Realistic Expectations for First-Year Head Coaches After Early 2024 Free Agency
The first wave of free agency has shifted the expectations for teams around the NFL. There have been plenty of trades and signings going down over the last two weeks that have changed the outlook of teams around the league.
Understanding those expectations can be especially important when it comes to evaluating the eight coaches who will be taking over head coaching duties with their team for the first time.
For some, there should be a reasonable expectation to be in the playoff hunt. For others, it should be understood that things might take a while to get headed in the right direction.
Money spent and needs addressed in free agency are bound to be a piece of that.
Here, we'll take a look at the eight teams that have a new head coach, examine what they've done in free agency, how it should impact their perception and what's a realistic win-loss goal.
Atlanta Falcons: Raheem Morris
1 of 8
Notable Additions: QB Kirk Cousins, WR Rondale Moore, WR Darnell Mooney
Notable Departures: QB Desmond Ridder, C Matt Hennessy, CB Jeff Okudah
Arthur Blank raised some eyebrows when the Falcons decided to fire Arthur Smith at the end of last season. The team hadn't necessarily improved under the coach's watch, but with a 7-10 record in all three of his seasons, they didn't exactly bottom out, either.
The problem was that Atlanta had a lot of promising pieces. Its skill group includes former first-round picks Kyle Pitts, Drake London and Bijan Robinson, but it was 26th in scoring offense last season.
The built-in excuse for the lack of points was at quarterback. Smith had the final year of Matt Ryan in his first season, a combination of Marcus Mariota and Desmond Ridder in his second year, with Ridder and Taylor Heinicke finishing out his tenure.
New head coach Raheem Morris won't have the same issue. The Falcons made a splash in free agency by signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million contract.
Morris should be judged in his first season on the improvement of his defense that finished 24th in DVOA and what this offense looks like with Cousins under center. Morris is a defensive head coach and their personnel will mostly be the same on that side of the ball.
The Falcons were in the NFC South race last season despite poor quarterback play and a defense that was below average. This season, the offense should climb to above average numbers, the defense should aim to be in the average range, and the Falcons should be real contenders to win the division.
Goal Win-Loss Record: 10-7
Carolina Panthers: Dave Canales
2 of 8
Notable Additions: WR Diontae Johnson (trade), G Robert Hunt, G Damien Lewis, OT Yosh Nijman, S Jordan Fuller
Notable Departures: C Bradley Bozeman, LB Frankie Luvu, Edge Brian Burns, S Jeremy Chinn, S Vonn Bell
Dave Canales has built his reputation on helping resurrect the careers of Geno Smith and Baker Mayfield. Now, he'll try to keep Bryce Young from needing career resuscitation.
Young's rookie year was rough under Frank Reich. How much of that was the former head coach's fault is up for debate, but he certainly wasn't set up for success. The Panthers were 23rd in pass block win rate and 30th in run block win rate, per ESPN. It's hard to have any success on offense with a line that is losing at that rate.
The offensive line should be better this season. The Panthers gave out notable contracts to Robert Hunt and Damien Lewis, giving them two upgrades at the guard positions.
They also didn't give Young good enough weaponry in his first season. They took a big step toward solving that by trading for Diontae Johnson. The 27-year-old might not be an elite WR1, but he is a consistent underneath threat who should help the quarterback right away.
Those were all important needs to address, but this is still a roster with a lot of work to do. The Panthers traded away Brian Burns and let Frankie Luvu walk in free agency.
Ultimately, this still isn't a team that is ready to compete even in the NFC South. Canales should be judged by Young's growth from Year 1 to Year 2. That alone should lead to some improvement over last year's 2-15 mark.
Goal Win-Loss Record: 6-11
Las Vegas Raiders: Antonio Pierce
3 of 8
Notable Additions: DT Christian Wilkins, QB Gardner Minshew II, RB Alexander Mattison, TE Harrison Bryant
Notable Departures: OT Jermaine Eluemunor, CB Amik Robertson, RB Josh Jacobs, DT Bilal Nichols, TE Austin Hooper
Antonio Pierce's situation is different from everyone else who will be taking over as head coach this season. He already served in the role with the Raiders for nine games last season, finishing 5-4 under his watch.
It was impressive enough that team ownership saw fit to take the "interim" off his title and stick with him moving forward.
Moving from Josh McDaniels to Pierce in the middle of the season brought a tangible difference in the team's energy, but it also turned around the defense. They finished eighth in DVOA, and the unit was the primary reason they were able to finish the season strong despite an offense that struggled with Aidan O'Connell at quarterback.
Pierce's defense just got a lot scarier with the signing of Christian Wilkins. It finally has a premier pass-rushing talent in the middle of it. The 28-year-old racked up nine sacks and 62 pressures last season, per Sports Info Solutions. The Raiders will have one of the scarier pass-rushing units with Maxx Crosby and an emerging Malcolm Koonce on the edge.
There are still major questions on offense. The arrival of Gardner Minshew II brings a certain floor to the quarterback position, but it doesn't do much to raise the ceiling.
Overall, the Raiders should look a lot like they did last season under Pierce. Until they find a quarterback, that should be the expectation.
Goal Win-Loss Record: 10-7
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Los Angeles Chargers: Jim Harbaugh
4 of 8
Notable Additions: RB Gus Edwards, LB Denzel Perryman, C Bradley Bozeman, DT Poona Ford, TE Will Dissly
Notable Departures: WR Keenan Allen, WR Mike Williams, RB Austin Ekeler, TE Gerald Everett, LB Kenneth Murray
Brandon Staley's tenure with the Chargers was marred by injuries and marked by underwhelming results. The final product never seemed to match the sum of all the talent on the roster.
The good news is that Jim Harbaugh has a consistent track record of success everywhere he's been. The bad news is that the roster Staley got to work with last season has suffered some significant losses.
The Chargers' financial situation left them with tough decisions to make. Justin Herbert was one of the most attractive aspects of the job, but his two most talented receivers were both cap casualties. L.A. outright released Mike Williams and traded away Keenan Allen for a fourth-round pick.
To make matters worse, the Chargers also let Austin Ekeler walk in free agency and replaced Gerald Everett with Will Dissly at tight end.
They were able to retain Joey Bosa and Khalil Mack, but the former has struggled to stay on the field the last two seasons and the latter is 33 years old.
Out of all the teams with a new head coach, the Chargers will probably be the one with the most hype. The head coach-quarterback pairing of Harbaugh and Herbert will be the driving force.
But the reality is that this roster is essentially undergoing a minor rebuild that could take more time to jell than people think.
Goal Win-Loss Record: 10-7
New England Patriots: Jerod Mayo
5 of 8
Notable Additions: RB Antonio Gibson, QB Jacoby Brissett, LB Sione Takitaki, OT Chukwuma Okorafor, TE Austin Hooper
Notable Departures: QB Mac Jones (trade), TE Mike Gesicki, CB/S Jalen Mills, WR DeVante Parker, OT Trent Brown
It's hard to be the guy who comes after the guy. Bill Belichick has been the epitome of the New England Patriots for over two decades. Now, former player and linebacker coach Jerod Mayo will attempt to lead the team back to its glory days.
He has his work cut out for him.
The Patriots entered free agency with one of the largest amounts of cap space in the league. But their $88.7 million has mostly been used to keep some key in-house free agents on the roster. Re-signing Josh Uche and Mike Onwenu might have been their best moves thus far.
As for their free-agent signees, it's hard to see them moving the needle a whole lot.
This is a roster that has questions at just about every premium position, including quarterback. While they will likely get their answer to that one with the third pick in the draft, there are still a whole lot of questions to be answered.
Missing out on Calvin Ridley, who was reportedly their top priority, was a major blow. They still don't have a legitimate No. 1 receiver to aid a rookie quarterback in Year 1.
Retaining good homegrown talent is always good, but it's a little less exciting when that talent is on a roster that went 4-13 last season.
There's going to be an expectation that they get better quarterback play. However, there's not much reason to believe Mayo will have the Patriots in playoff contention in his first season.
Goal Win-Loss Record: 7-10
Seattle Seahawks: Mike Macdonald
6 of 8
Notable Additions: LB Jerome Baker, QB Sam Howell (trade), OT George Fant, S Rayshawn Jenkins, LB Tyrel Dodson
Notable Departures: C Evan Brown, LB Bobby Wagner, LB Jordyn Brooks, OG Damien Lewis, QB Drew Lock
There are a lot of parallels between Jerod Mayo and Mike Macdonald. Not only are they both defensive coaches, but they will also be taking over for beloved coaches of their respective franchises.
Carroll isn't quite the same as Belichick, but he is the winningest coach in history both by total wins and winning percentage. He's also the only coach to bring the Pacific Northwest a Super Bowl win.
Fortunately for him, the Seahawks are in a little better position for Macdonald to be successful in his first year.
For starters, the Seahawks were 9-8 last season. They had a negative point differential and didn't make the playoffs, but they still avoided a losing season. In fact, they've only had one of those since 2012.
That only serves to turn up the heat on Macdonald. This is a franchise that has become accustomed to competing in a typically tough NFC West.
For the 36-year-old to continue that trend, he's going to have to maximize a defense that is losing some key players. Jordyn Brooks and Bobby Wagner were a strong linebacker duo and will be replaced by free-agent signees Jerome Baker and Tyrel Dodson.
Macdonald certainly optimized his talent as Baltimore's defensive coordinator. In his two years in the role, the Ravens were third and first in scoring defense.
Geno Smith gives the Seahawks a solid baseline of quarterback play with Tyler Lockett, DK Metcalf and Jaxon Smith-Njigba offering the offense some explosiveness. But the coach's ability to field a top-tier defense with the talent he has will be key.
A losing season is not something that can be accepted in Macdonald's first year.
Goal Win-Loss Record: 10-7
Tennessee Titans: Brian Callahan
7 of 8
Notable Additions: WR Calvin Ridley, C Lloyd Cushenberry, LB Kenneth Murray, RB Tony Pollard, CB Chidobe Awuzie
Notable Departures: RB Derrick Henry, CB Sean Murphy-Bunting, C Aaron Brewer, LB Azeez Al-Shaair, DL Denico Autrey
The Titans fired Mike Vrabel despite the fact that he won the AFC South twice, took them to an AFC Championship Game and had a 54-45 record as head coach over six seasons.
Tennessee had losing seasons in 2022 and 2023 under Vrabel, but it wasn't as though the rosters were built to win much more than that.
Regardless, general manager Ran Carthon has been a busy man since free agency started. They have truly said goodbye to an era with Derrick Henry leaving for the Baltimore Ravens, and Tony Pollard has come to Tennessee off a disappointing campaign in Dallas.
The most important moves for the Titans might have been signing Calvin Ridley and Lloyd Cushenberry, though. The former gives them a legitimate 1-2 punch with DeAndre Hopkins, while the latter ensures there won't be any drop-off from Aaron Brewer at the pivot.
Brian Callahan comes in as a well-respected offensive coordinator. He showed off his skills when Joe Burrow went down with an injury and Jake Browning kept the Bengals offense humming.
The new Tennessee head coach will be expected to show immediate results on offense where the Titans were 25th in DVOA. The defense was right around average at 18th in the metric. Denico Autrey was the main loss, but they've filled in most of the other losses.
With Will Levis entering his second year, it's fair to expect the team to improve on its 6-11 ledger last season.
Goal Win-Loss Record: 8-9
Washington Commanders: Dan Quinn
8 of 8
Notable Additions: RB Austin Ekeler, LB Frankie Luvu, C Tyler Biadasz, S Jeremy Chinn, Edge Dorance Armstrong Jr.
Notable Departures: QB Sam Howell (trade), RB Antonio Gibson, QB Jacoby Brissett, CB Kendall Fuller, S Kamren Curl
The Commanders are kicking off a new era that starts all the way up with ownership. This is the first full offseason since Josh Harris bought the Commanders in July 2023. With it comes a changing of leadership at every level.
Adam Peters has taken over as general manager, while Dan Quinn gets the nod as head coach after a successful stint as the Dallas Cowboys defensive coordinator.
The tandem has gone right to work at rebuilding the roster in their image. The Commanders signed a league-high 20 free agents this offseason. The majority of whom are coming from outside the organization.
Everything the Commanders have done points to the expectation of a quick turnaround. They hired a former head coach who knows how the job is done and won't have a learning curve. They've signed several free agents who have previous connections with Quinn or other coaches on staff.
They are in position to draft one of the top three quarterback prospects in the draft in Caleb Williams, Drake Maye or Jayden Daniels with the No. 2 pick.
There are going to be growing pains for any team with this many new pieces, but there's also going to be an expectation that it all comes out to be a competitive football team.
Fighting for .500 is not an unreasonable expectation.
Goal Win-Loss Record: 8-9
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