2024 NFL Draft Winners and Losers From Early Free-Agency Action
NFL free agency and the draft form a symbiotic relationship during the the league's offseason. Which one feeds into the other depends on each individual team, though.
Situation will determine how an organization operates.
For example, the Washington Commanders entered this offseason with a need at quarterback. They own this year's second overall pick. They're going to land a quarterback at that slot, hence why new general manager Adam Peters traded last year's starter, Sam Howell, to the Seattle Seahawks for a flip-flop of mid-round draft selections. There's no need for the team to sign a free-agent quarterback with the thought of him starting.
Instead, Peters and Co. spent this offseason trying to build around the quarterback position, with the free-agent acquisitions of running back Austin Ekeler, tight end Zach Ertz, center Tyler Biadasz and guard Nick Allegretti.
Free agency is a chance to set each organization up to take the best player for it when it's officially on the clock. Since it occurs before the draft begins, the impact can change how projections look, beginning with the top-10 selections.
The top 10 sets the table and serves as the primary concentration in this particular case, because things have changed based on what has happened through the first two weeks of free agency.
Significant repercussions should be felt near the top of the class, with a few names and teams emerging as big winners or losers.
Winner: Arizona Cardinals
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The Arizona Cardinals could go one of two ways depending on the direction the front office prefers.
With the expectation of quarterbacks going first, second and third overall to the Chicago Bears, Washington Commanders and New England Patriots, respectively, the draft begins in earnest with the No. 4 overall pick, where Arizona resides.
The most logical approach for the Cardinals is simply standing pat and selecting the class' No. 1 overall talent: Ohio State wide receiver Marvin Harrison Jr. But a caveat has emerged thanks to free agency.
Arizona already owns six selections among this year's top 90 picks. There's no reason for it to move out of its current slotting if the team is enamored with Harrison.
However, a trade down could materialize with a quarterback-starved desperately trying to select the class' QB4.
The Cardinals don't need to trade. They already have a significant war chest to build around Kyler Murray. A sweetheart deal could come down the pipeline, though, especially with the Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders falling at Nos. 11, 12 and 13, since their projected starting quarterbacks are Sam Darnold, Jarrett Stidham and Gardner Minshew, respectively.
Basically, Cardinals general manager Monti Ossenfort finds himself in a comfy chair with the chance to be a kingpin and strongarm the best trade possible, as there is no desperation on his end when the alternative is to land the class' best player.
Trade or no trade, Arizona is sitting pretty.
Loser: Las Vegas Raiders
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As mentioned, the Las Vegas Raiders find themselves on the back end of a small run of teams just outside of the top-10 draft selections. Each needs to make some type of move to land one of the class' four-best quarterback prospects.
The Raiders organization understands its predicament.
"I know we had Derek Carr for a bunch of years," head coach Antonio Pierce said, per ESPN's Paul Gutierrez. "But before him and after him, it's been a bunch of one-stop guys."
Pierce continued: "And I don't think any organization wants that. You want the face of your franchise to be the quarterback, to be that guy you can count on for the next few years."
An understanding of the situation and capability of adequately addressing it are two completely different things, though. It's difficult to project a situation where the Raiders have the advantage over the Vikings and Broncos while trying to outmaneuver both to land their quarterback.
Minnesota, in particular, already set its plan into motion when general manager Kwesi Adofo-Mensah sent second- and sixth-round picks this year, plus a 2025 second-round selection, to the Houston Texans for this year's 23rd overall pick and an extra seventh-rounder.
With two first-round selections in their back pocket, including the No. 11 pick, the Vikings have more than enough ammunition to trade up anywhere between the fourth and their original selection.
The Raiders will more than likely be asked to settle at the game's most important position with either Gardner Minshew II starting or a prospect such as Washington's Michael Penix Jr. or Oregon's Bo Nix brought into the mix.
Winner: QB J.J. McCarthy, Michigan
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The teams near the top of the draft and those trying to get into that range should all have eyes for Michigan quarterback J.J. McCarthy.
Right now, USC's Caleb Williams, North Carolina's Drake Maye and LSU's Jayden Daniels are expected to hear their names called within the first three draft selections.
From there, the draft could get wild, with multiple organizations jockeying to obtain McCarthy. The Minnesota Vikings appear to be in the pole position. But which trade partner remains in the air.
Whatever the case, all of it benefits the 21-year-old.
Technically, the national championship-winning QB isn't projected as a top-10 talent, according to the Bleacher Report Scouting Department. But his age, skill set and upside, combined with multiple organizations in need of a quality quarterback option, will almost certainly push him there and likely be the target of some team trading up for his services. This possibility also means the value on his rookie contract will drastically increase over his projected ranking.
As for the potential options, McCarthy could be throwing to the likes of Justin Jefferson in Minnesota, Courtland Sutton in Denver or Davante Adams in Sin City. Things could be much worse for him. But he's in demand.
Not too shabby for a prospect many questioned throughout the process because the Michigan Wolverines are a run-dominant team with future NFL talent at every position group.
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Loser: TE Brock Bowers, Georgia
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Georgia's Brock Bowers is the greatest tight end prospect of all time. Well, he has the greatest resume of all time, with a pair of national championships, three first-team All-SEC nods and two John Mackey Awards. He led the Bulldogs in receiving each of this three seasons on campus.
The 21-year-old is a legitimate top-three talent in this year's draft class. But he plays tight end, which isn't a premium position and not valued nearly as much as others.
For example, Bowers would automatically find himself among the top five highest-paid tight ends in guaranteed money if he's drafted among this year's top seven selections.
Coincidentally, the Tennessee Titans have this year's No. 7 overall pick. Where did Bowers say he'd prefer to play when pressed? Tennessee.
Unfortunately, the board isn't setting up to oblige the underclassman.
Bowers-Chargers became a favorite pairing during the earlier portions of offseason projections, but Los Angeles signed tight ends Will Dissly and Hayden Hurst in free agency. Besides, the Jim Harbaugh-led squad probably prefers a physical offensive lineman to any other position if it keeps the No. 5 selection. Another wide receiver couldn't hurt, either.
The New York Giants may consider Bowers with the sixth pick. However, they still have Darren Waller and Daniel Bellinger under contract. Besides, a true No. 1 wide receiver would do wonders for that offense.
Back at Tennessee, the Titans have done little to upgrade last year's atrocious offensive line. The free-agent signing of center Lloyd Cushenberry III certainly isn't enough. An offensive tackle seems like a lock at the seventh spot.
The Atlanta Falcons and Chicago Bears have Kyle Pitts and Cole Kmet on their respective rosters. The Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders are all looking for a quarterback.
Even the Indianapolis Colts, which emerged as another favorite for Bowers' services and own this year's 15th pick, are pressed to acquire more secondary help since the team has yet to add anything new along its defensive back line.
Quality options are dwindling for Bowers as the process continues.
Winner: Atlanta Falcons
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The Atlanta Falcons can rejoice because they have a legitimate starting quarterback again.
After signing Kirk Cousins to a four-year, $180 million free-agent contract, as well as bringing in wide receivers Darnell Mooney and Rondale Moore, their offense is complete. The organization is no longer searching for that key component to keep everything running on schedule.
With quarterback out of the way, the Falcons are free to handle the draft in a myriad of different ways.
Atlanta does still need defensive help. However, this year's class is offense-heavy, particularly among the top-10 talents, which gives the Falcons some potential leverage when considering a possible trade down.
As established, teams will be looking to trade up for a quarterback. If a deal doesn't materialize before the No. 8 overall pick, there's no reason for the Falcons to stay at their current slot. Instead, they can trade down, gain valuable assets and still likely land the top-rated player at edge-rusher or cornerback.
The fact that Atlanta isn't pigeonholed into the quarterback slot is a reward in itself. The chance to add something more around the position or acquire extra picks as a result is the cherry on top for a team that had been mired in mediocrity.
As constructed, the Falcons can be considered the NFC South favorites, with the opportunity to add more talent through the draft.
Loser: Top of Offensive Tackle Class
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Beyond the Tennessee Titans at No. 7, this year's remaining top offensive linemen could be waiting longer than expected once the draft starts.
The Titans still have a glaring hole at left tackle, which should be reserved for Notre Dame's Joe Alt or Penn State's Olu Fashanu. But that's the only spot among the top-10 selections that seems earmarked for a blocker.
The Arizona Cardinals already replaced D.J. Humphries with the free-agent signing of Jonah Williams.
The Los Angeles Chargers aren't guaranteed to take an offensive lineman with the fifth overall pick after trading Keenan Allen to the Chicago Bears and releasing Mike Williams, who subsequently signed with the New York Jets. Instead, they may take a much-needed wide receiver or even trade out of the spot.
The New York Giants built up their offensive interior with the free-agent additions of Jon Runyan Jr., Aaron Stinnie, Jimmy Morrissey and possibly Jermaine Eluemunor, if he moves inside, which means Evan Neal likely won't slide to guard anytime soon.
Once the Titans address the trenches, the Atlanta Falcons are set along their offensive line. The Chicago Bears could take a left tackle to replace Braxton Jones, or general manager Ryan Poles may opt for another wide receiver to give this year's overall No. 1 overall pick an excellent set of weapons.
The New York Jets added veteran tackles Morgan Moses and Tyron Smith (both 33). They could select another tackle considering their age, plus the latter's worrisome injury history. But the franchise is in win-now mode with the need to add more around 40-year-old quarterback Aaron Rodgers.
A scenario exists where a second offensive-line prospect doesn't hear his named called among the initial 10 selections. Considering the likes of Alt, Fashanu, Oregon State's Taliese Fuaga and Alabama's JC Latham have regularly been projected in that range, it would be a disappointment for the position class.
NFL decision-makers may try to take advantage of the fact that this is one of the deepest offensive-line classes in recent memory.
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