5 Potential Offseason Trade Landing Spots for Penguins Defenseman Erik Karlsson
The Pittsburgh Penguins took a big swing this past offseason when they acquired defenseman Erik Karlsson from the San Jose Sharks.
At the time, it seemed like a no-brainer move.
Not only was Karlsson coming off a Norris Trophy-winning season that saw him become the first defenseman in three decades to top the 100-point mark, but it also cost them almost nothing of significance.
All they had to give up was a conditional first-round draft pick, a prospect and almost all of the bad contracts leftover from the Ron Hextall era (Mikael Granlund, Jan Rutta, Casey DeSmith, Jeff Petry). For the 2023-24 season, that trade lowered the Penguins' salary-cap number.
It was an easy call, and it seemed like it might keep the championship window open for Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin, Kris Letang and Jake Guentzel for a little longer.
It hasn't worked out that way, though. Karlsson has been good but not great; Guentzel has been traded; and unless they get hot over the next month, the Penguins seem destined to miss the playoffs for a second consecutive season.
Combined with Karlsson's sizable remaining contract, those results have started to spark more trade speculation for the offseason. So, with that in mind let's look at a couple of potential landing spots and options if the Penguins wanted to go in that direction.
It is important to keep in mind Karlsson is still owed $10 million per season over the next three full years, and he also has trade protections that will help him dictate where or if he moves.
Pittsburgh Penguins
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OK, maybe it's cheating to include the team he plays for as a potential landing spot. But do you know what? It might be the most sensible option.
So, why not run it back another year?
While Karlsson's impact has been disappointing in Pittsburgh, that doesn't mean it's been bad. Far from it, actually.
His underlying numbers remain quite strong during 5-on-5 play, and he is still a strong possession-driving player. Of the 200 defenders who have logged at least 500 minutes of 5-on-5 ice time this season, the Swede is still 28th in expected goal share while his 46 points are 12th among all defensemen.
There is a big difference between "disappointing" and "bad."
Karlsson has been the former. Not the latter. Given that, it's hard to imagine the Penguins finding a more productive player for the position on the open market. There is also a good chance that his play bounces back after getting a full year to get familiar with the roster, a new team, and a new playing style.
Even though he is set to be 34 years old next season, he is far from over the hill and should still have some more productive hockey ahead of him.
As long as Crosby remains in Pittsburgh—and the expectation is that he will stay long-term—they aren't going to rebuild. Why not run it back another year with Karlsson and see what happens?
If the results are the same, you can revisit a trade after next season; if he bounces back, maybe you have a better team and a better chance at the playoffs. Or at least boost his trade value again.
Sometimes, the best trade is the trade you do not make.
Ottawa Senators
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Karlsson started his career with the Ottawa Senators, played his best hockey there and still has a lot of connections to the organization and the city.
It makes some sense.
The Senators are also in kind of a weird spot right now. They aren't particularly good, but they're also not really in a position where they are still rebuilding. There is a clear, defined core here—a very talented core—that should be ready to start competing sooner rather than later.
They need more help on the right side of their defense, and there have already been potential rumblings about a reunion this offseason (though Karlsson did his best to dismiss them when the Penguins made a trip to Ottawa this past week).
It would be a long shot, but the Senators have some pieces that could be of interest to the Penguins in a trade, and Karlsson has enough positive history here that it might be a spot he is willing to accept a trade to if the teams can make the assets and money work.
Toronto Maple Leafs
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The Toronto Maple Leafs were one of the teams in the mix for Karlsson during the offseason but ended up missing out when he went to Pittsburgh.
Maybe it's something that gets revisited in the offseason?
As a hypothetical, let's say Toronto loses another early-round series in the playoffs. Given the flaws of the Maple Leafs' roster and the reality that it would have to get through both Boston and Florida in the first two rounds, that is a very possible thought.
However, it would be very bad news for the Maple Leafs and their top players. This is a core that has won just a single playoff series in seven years, and it probably can't afford to go through another early exit without some serious changes.
Would another early exit finally put Toronto management at a point where it has to take an objective look at the core and the overall roster and simply say it isn't working and something needs to be done about it?
Not only that, but the Maple Leafs also have a pretty clear need for an upgrade on their defense next season as Morgan Rielly. Jake McCabe and Conor Timmins are the only defenders on the roster still under contract for next season.
The money would be a problem on the surface given the fact that Toronto already has four $10 million players on its books, but if management reaches its breaking point, maybe one of those players gets sent out.
Could there be a match here? A potential change-of-scenery match? Maybe even involving one of Mitch Marner or John Tavares given that both would be entering the final year of their contracts and are staring down the possibility of some hectic contract negotiations.
Crazier things have happened.
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Carolina Hurricanes
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The Carolina Hurricanes would be an intriguing match because they also had an offseason interest in Karlsson, and they are also the type of team that could put him in a position where he could get the one thing his Hall of Fame resume is lacking: a Stanley Cup.
Unless the Hurricanes win it all this season, they might also be desperate for a championship and would be willing to roll the dice on anything to get over the hump.
Carolina is one of the best teams in the league, but it has run into a glass ceiling with this current core having never gone beyond the Eastern Conference Final. It's also entering an offseason where it has four pending unrestricted free agents on defense (Brett Pesce, Brady Skjei, Tony DeAngelo, Jalen Chatfield) and no defensemen signed beyond the 2024-25 season.
The Penguins and Hurricanes also showed at the trade deadline they are not afraid to make deals within the division with the Jake Guentzel deal.
The big obstacle here in the short term might be a potential reunion between Karlsson and Brent Burns. There were rumors they had a "strained" relationship during the time together in San Jose, which the Swede denied, but they still didn't have the best success together on a team level. It just didn't always work.
However, Carolina is a better team, is in a better situation and has a significantly better supporting cast and head coaching situation. That can fix a lot
Detroit Red Wings
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The Detroit Red Wings are in danger of letting a playoff slip away and potentially extending their postseason drought to eight consecutive seasons.
They have the offense to win. But they don't have the defense, both in terms of quality or quantity, and they need to give Moritz Seider some big-time help on the back end.
Karlsson might not be a traditional shutdown defender, but the Red Wings need more good players on defense and more players who can make an impact. They also need somebody who can play some big minutes and not put all of the pressure on Seider to carry the load.
Detroit has nearly $28 million in salary-cap space to play with this offseason and 14 players under contract already, so they could make the money work. They are also going to be entering an offseason where there is going to be big pressure for general manager Steve Yzerman to put a playoff team on the ice, especially if they continue their recent slump and miss again this season.
It would probably take some convincing to get Karlsson to waive his no-trade clause for a team that is not a top-tier contender, but there could be a match, there is a definite need from Detroit's perspective, and the salary-cap situation could work.
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