Biggest Overreactions After First Week of 2024 NFL Free Agency
There has been no shortage of hot takes on the state of the NFL following a full week of marquee free-agency signings and blockbuster trades.
While some of these moves have moved the needle and shifted the league's landscape, it's far too early to start crowning and burying teams based on their acquisitions and losses.
There are still plenty of notable players left to be signed—the veterans who sign during the latter stages of the offseason may not grab as many headlines, but they often end up becoming key contributions on Super Bowl squads—and next month's draft will also further shift the NFL power structure.
Despite the volume of roster tinkering left to be done, there have been plenty of overreactions to the early offseason news.
Let's look at some of it and highlight why it's not time to celebrate or panic just yet.
Green Bay Packers Now NFC Front-Runners
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The Green Bay Packers made one of the bigger splashes at the onset of the new league year, agreeing to terms with Josh Jacobs to bolster their backfield.
The move, which coincided with the release of veteran running back Aaron Jones, provides Green Bay with a two-time Pro Bowler who is only a season removed from winning the league's rushing crown.
While the addition of Jacobs is solid—the Packers are getting a back with a higher ceiling than their incumbent starter and is also three years younger—it hasn't truly moved the needle.
The 26-year-old still must prove his skills aren't fading after a 2023 campaign in which his rushing production was more than halved despite playing in just four fewer games.
Jacobs missed those contests at the end of the year after suffering a quad injury, and while he's expected to be fully healthy for 2024, he may be starting to show wear-and-tear from his herculean workloads.
With 1,502 touches to his name in a half-decade span—53 more than Jones accumulated in two fewer years—there is a real chance Jacobs' best days could already be behind him. There is a possibility he breaks down well before finishing the four-year, $48 million deal he just signed as well.
Outside of the Jacobs signing, Green Bay's only other notable move this week was bringing in safety Xavier McKinney.
The 24-year-old may have had a stellar 2023 with the New York Giants, but he has missed 18 games over his first three professional seasons and hadn't scored above a 75.4 PFF grade until breaking out last year.
The team also invested heavily—McKinney inked a four-year, $68 million contract—in a position it has largely been able to avoid spending big at in recent years.
The Packers look to be in better shape than they were following a surprise divisional-round foray to cap off last season, but they've yet to show they can beat elite teams in the conference.
They still have to get past squads such as the Detroit Lions (who have won three of the last four head-to-head meetings) and San Francisco 49ers—the team that ended three of Green Bay's last four playoff trips over the last five years.
Putting the Packers in the same bracket as either of the teams that reached the last NFC Championship would be premature at this juncture. Unless the front office knocks a good portion of its 11 picks in the upcoming draft out of the park, Green Bay still has some development left to do before it becomes a perennial contender.
Pittsburgh Steelers Make Massive Improvements
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No team made more headlines during the opening week of free agency than the Pittsburgh Steelers did for overhauling an abysmal quarterback situation.
Not only did they sign Russell Wilson following his release to help win now, but they also invested in the future by trading for Justin Fields.
As flashy as these moves were, don't be surprised if the Steelers regress in 2024.
Wilson may be a nine-time Pro Bowler, but he hasn't had a special season since 2020. Fields has been wildly inconsistent since entering the league and appears to be trending toward bust status after flaming out in Chicago.
The Steelers may have managed to seal a playoff berth with Mason Rudolph under center, but they will have their work cut out competing in a loaded AFC North.
Pittsburgh's brass capitalized on its new quarterbacks' relative affordability—Wilson signed a one-year deal for minimum pay, and Fields, going into the final year of his rookie deal, only cost a sixth-round pick—but the organization could still get burned by these moves and lack the firepower to hang with its rivals.
The Steelers also may have created an unnecessary quarterback controversy that could end up becoming a distraction. Pittsburgh initially seemed to be intent on making Wilson the surefire starter by trading Kenny Pickett to the Philadelphia Eagles.
By bringing in Fields after giving up on Pickett (a move that could come back to haunt Pittsburgh if the young QB flourishes in Philly), the Steelers put themselves in a potentially awkward spot.
While Albert Breer of Sports Illustrated reported that head coach Mike Tomlin "was upfront with Justin Fields—told him that Russell Wilson is the starter, and Fields will work from there," Wilson will quickly feel the pressure from his backup if he stumbles at any point.
The Steelers haven't exactly positioned either of their new passers to find instant success either. They elected to trade away No. 2 wideout Diontae Johnson and only signed Van Jefferson as a potential replacement.
No moves were made to reinforce a below-average offensive line either, leaving the seven picks the team holds in the 2024 draft as the main way for Pittsburgh to find some much-needed reinforcements.
Dallas Cowboys Doomed By Remaining Stagnant
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The Dallas Cowboys have been panned for their lack of marquee pickups to start the new league year.
Rather than splurge on high-priced veterans, they have mostly stood pat and focused on retaining their own free agents.
Longtime Minnesota Vikings linebacker Eric Kendricks has been the only notable addition to a lineup that was stunned in the Wild Card Round of last year's playoffs.
Despite the lack of sizzle in the offseason, Dallas fans shouldn't panic. The team is still chock-full of talent and has nearly all the pieces needed to make a deep postseason run in place.
While the Cowboys disappointed during their 48-32 defeat to the Green Bay Packers after a third consecutive 12-5 regular season, they still have a quality quarterback in Dak Prescott, an All-Pro wideout in CeeDee Lamb and a perennial Defensive Player of the Year candidate in Micah Parsons.
The team fared well on both sides of the ball last year, ranking in the top five in total offense, scoring offense, total defense and scoring defense—making them the only team in the league to accomplish that feat in 2023.
Dallas also tied for the third-best turnover differential at plus-10 and had the second-fewest giveaways with a mere 16 on the year. The Cowboys may have collapsed when it mattered most, but they should learn from that early exit and build upon it when they almost assuredly reach the playoffs again next season.
With head coach Mike McCarthy's job hanging in the balance, don't be surprised if he elevates this squad to another level. He should be able to take Dallas to its first NFC Championship Game appearance in almost three decades and potentially beyond if all goes according to plan.
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Baltimore Ravens Have Pushed Over Super Bowl Hump
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The Baltimore Ravens have been praised as one of the big winners of the offseason thanks to their marquee signing of Derrick Henry.
The move reinforces a position of clear need for the roster, but the running back alone won't turn this team into Super Bowl champions.
Baltimore is suffering from roster attrition following a league-best 13-4 regular season in 2023. It had a whopping 23 players hit unrestricted free agency this offseason and has only managed to retain a handful so far.
While Justin Madubuike, one of the team's most critical defensive pieces, has been locked up on a major extension, several others—including Patrick Queen, Geno Stone and Ronald Darby—have since signed elsewhere.
The offense still needs more help as well. Henry may be a big upgrade over the likes of Gus Edwards and Justice Hill in the backfield, but this team scored just 10 points in a season-ending loss to the eventual Super Bowl champion Kansas City Chiefs.
The Ravens clearly need reliable pass-catchers to augment Zay Flowers and Mark Andrews, but they have opted against bringing in any veterans who fit the bill.
The departure of guard John Simpson to the New York Jets and potentially Kevin Zeitler, who remains on the open market, hurts an offensive line that anchored the NFL's top rushing attack.
While Baltimore can shore up a few of these holes with the nine picks it possesses in the 2024 draft, a lack of veterans in critical positions could set the team up for a backslide this coming campaign.
Atlanta Falcons Become a Contender with Kirk Cousins
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The Atlanta Falcons pulled off the biggest coup of the free-agency signing period by coming to terms on a long-term contract with quarterback Kirk Cousins.
The veteran signal-caller immediately plugs what has been a major hole plaguing the organization for the last few years, but it's still far too early to declare the Falcons a realistic Super Bowl contender.
Atlanta is undoubtedly better with Cousins under center than it has been with the likes of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke—the three stop-gap quarterbacks it has tried and failed to install since the departure of Matt Ryan following the 2021 campaign—but that may not be enough to take the team back to the big game.
Cousins has been playing some of his best football in recent years, but he is notably coming off a season-ending injury as he gears up for his age-36 campaign.
Even if the four-time Pro Bowler is back to full strength and playing well, there is still his glaring lack of postseason success to contend with. He's reached the playoffs just four times in his 12-year NFL career—dropping to three times if you discount his rookie trip while serving as Robert Griffin III's backup with the Washington Commanders—and posted an abysmal 1-4 record in those contests.
While Cousins will have enough talent surrounding him to get the job done, it remains to be seen if Atlanta's highly drafted nucleus of skill position players such as Kyle Pitts (No. 4 in 2021), Drake London (No. 8 in 2022) and Bijan Robinson (No. 8 in 2023) can live up to the hype.
None of these players has performed badly by any measure, but all have underwhelmed compared to their lofty draft position. Most of the blame has fallen on the Falcons' pitiful quarterback performances and poor play-calling, but that narrative could quickly change if they don't take a leap with a new regime in place and Cousins running the show.
The Falcons may have a steady offensive supporting cast buoyed by a great offensive line—it finished No. 4 overall in PFF's end-of-season rankings—but the defense probably won't be at that same level.
Atlanta recorded a meager 16 takeaways all last year, the fourth-fewest in the league, and struggled to stop the run. Without any notable free-agent additions on that side of the ball and only $4.4 million in cap space to improve the roster outside of draft picks, this unit will struggle to become a Super Bowl-caliber one.
The Falcons should be considered the front-runner in a weak NFC South race, but their ability to do any real damage in the postseason is debatable.
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