Complete Bracket Predictions for 2024 NBA Playoffs
We're officially a month away from the start of the 2024 NBA playoffs, although there's a lot of seeding left to be decided before then.
The Minnesota Timberwolves are still fighting for the No. 1 spot in the West even without Karl-Anthony Towns, the Orlando Magic are continuing their post-All-Star break surge up the East standings, and one postseason regular in these predictions has finally fallen short.
Based on current record, remaining strength of schedule (SOS) and other factors, here's a best guess at how a full 2024 NBA playoff bracket will look.
Note: Remaining SOS rankings via Tankathon. All stats and records accurate as of Monday.
East Quarterfinals: (4) Orlando Magic vs. (5) Cleveland Cavaliers
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Orlando Magic
Current Record/Seed: 40-28, 5th in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 15th overall
Orlando has been one of the hottest teams since the All-Star break, going 10-3 overall with a league-best 106.9 defensive rating. Only the Boston Celtics and Denver Nuggets have won more games over this span (11).
While the offense can still be sluggish at times, no one is defending at a higher level right now with Orlando currently sitting just a game out of the No. 4 seed.
With the Cavaliers and New York Knicks continuing to fight through injuries, the Magic should take full advantage and leapfrog at least one (or both) on their way to securing home-court advantage in the first round. With a 23-9 record at Kia Center this season (opposed to 17-19 on the road), this would be huge for the ascending Magic.
Cleveland Cavaliers
Current Record/Seed: 43-25, 3rd in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 17th overall
Once upon a time Cleveland was the hottest team in basketball and sitting at the No. 2 seed in the East.
Injuries have wrecked that progress, as Donovan Mitchell (knee, nasal fracture), Evan Mobley (ankle), Max Strus (knee) and Dean Wade (knee) are all currently sidelined. The Cavs weathered earlier injuries to both Mobley and Darius Garland though the middle of the season, yet they are struggling to recapture the same magic now.
Just 7-8 since the All-Star break, the Cavs are in real danger of falling to the No. 5 seed, especially if their key players continue to miss time. Garland, Jarrett Allen, Caris LeVert, Isaac Okoro and others can keep this team from completely bottoming out, but a fall from No. 2 to No. 5 now seems entirely possible.
East Quarterfinals: (3) New York Knicks vs. (6) Indiana Pacers
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New York Knicks
Current Record/Seed: 41-27, 4th in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 14th overall
The Knicks are going to be a nightmare to face in the playoffs if they can ever get healthy.
New York is 15-2 with OG Anunoby this season, although the star forward could miss some more time after suffering inflammation after he returned from surgery. The Knicks "do not know the status" of Julius Randle moving forward yet either, according to ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski.
Winners of four straight, however, the Knicks are just two games back of the Cleveland Cavaliers for the No. 3 seed in the East. Given the number of injuries the Cavs are dealing with as well (Donovan Mitchell, Evan Mobley, Max Strus, Dean Wade), even this banged-up Knicks crew should be able to pass them as long as Jalen Brunson is healthy.
Indiana Pacers
Current Record/Seed: 38-31, 7th in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 20th overall
While the Western Conference is going to be a slugfest for the sixth and final guaranteed playoff seed, the East is simply begging for some team to step up and take it.
Predicting the Pacers to finish at No. 6 is more of an indictment of the Philadelphia 76ers, a team that's gone 6-8 since the All-Star break and is 12-22 overall this season without Joel Embiid.
Tyrese Haliburton has to start shooting better at some point (28.2 percent from three over his last 22 games) and Pascal Siakam has been incredibly steady as a No. 2 (1B?) option.
Indiana just needs to play slightly better than .500 ball the rest of the way and the No. 6 seed should be theirs.
East Quarterfinals: (2) Milwaukee Bucks vs. (7) Philadelphia 76ers
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Milwaukee Bucks
Current Record/Seed: 44-24, 2nd in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 4th overall
Remember when it looked like the Bucks had fixed their defensive woes? A 20th-ranked rating since the All-Star break would suggest otherwise, even if their loaded offense continues to guide them to wins (9-3 over this stretch).
The Bucks also possess one of the league's toughest remaining schedules, including a pair of games against the Boston Celtics who remain unreachable in the standings (10-game lead).
The good news for Milwaukee is that the teams immediately below them (Cleveland Cavaliers, New York Knicks) are currently missing key players with unclear return dates. The Bucks will coast to the No. 2 seed in the East, even if this looks far from a championship-caliber team right now.
Philadelphia 76ers
Current Record/Seed: 38-30, 6th in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 16th overall
Getting Joel Embiid back at practice is a huge step in the right direction for the Sixers and their title chances, even if the MVP center won't officially return to game action until the first or second week of April if all goes to plan.
Meanwhile, give credit to Philly for hanging around the top six seeds in the East, even if this team continues to fall without its superstar. A fall to the play-in tournament appears inevitable unless the Indiana Pacers continue to play uninspired basketball.
This could be one of the most dangerous seventh seeds we've ever seen should Embiid come back close to 100 percent. A first-round matchup against Giannis Antetokounmpo and the Milwaukee Bucks would be quite tasty as well.
East Quarterfinals: (1) Boston Celtics vs. (8) Miami Heat
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Boston Celtics
Current Record/Seed: 54-14, 1st in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 30th overall
How front-loaded was the Celtics schedule this season? Four of Boston's last five games came against the Washington Wizards, Detroit Pistons, Portland Trail Blazers and Utah Jazz and the Celtics still have the NBA's easiest remaining slate of contests.
An 11-2 record since the All-Star break even while seemingly missing a starter or two every game shows Boston isn't taking its foot off the gas even if no team in the league is catching it for the No. 1 overall seed and home-court advantage through the Finals.
The Celtics are the first team to clinch a playoff berth, have a massive 10-game lead over the Milwaukee Bucks and possess a sparkling plus-18.9 net rating since the break. There's no question where this team will finish in the standings.
Miami Heat
Current Record/Seed: 37-31, 8th in East
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 25th overall
The Celtics' reward for such a terrific regular season could very well be a Philadelphia 76ers team with Joel Embiid or this Miami Heat squad that knocked Boston out of the playoffs last year.
Every time it looks like Miami is about to make a run up the standings, injuries or a lackluster performance keeps it in the play-in tournament. Tyler Herro has been out for nearly a month with a foot injury, and Jimmy Butler has missed time recently with a foot issue as well.
A favorable schedule could get the Heat back into the top six seeds, although a 4-6 record over their last 10 games has given us little confidence that this rise will happen.
West Quarterfinals: (4) New Orleans Pelicans vs. (5) Los Angeles Clippers
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New Orleans Pelicans
Current Record/Seed: 41-26, 5th in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 10th overall
The Pelicans are 8-4 since the All-Star break, riding a second-ranked defense (107.2 rating) to the No. 5 seed in the loaded West. Now just a single game behind the Clippers, we're predicting a swap in the standings sometime soon.
"I've got people in New Orleans telling me that since December, when the in-season tournament happened, Zion Williamson has lost 25 or more pounds and his performance has been excellent," ESPN's Brian Windhorst said on The Hoop Collective podcast. "He's playing fewer minutes and I think that helps as well, but I've got people telling me he's lost 25 pounds."
The 23-year-old forward is averaging 28.6 points, 8.8 rebounds, 3.8 assists, 1.4 steals and 1.4 blocks on 63.2 percent shooting over his last five games, with New Orleans going 4-1 over this stretch.
If Williamson continues to play like an alpha, the Pelicans have enough help around him to get home-court advantage in the first round.
Los Angeles Clippers
Current Record/Seed: 42-25, 4th in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 13th overall
The Clippers looked like a contender for the No. 1 seed in the West a few weeks ago yet have now fallen five games behind the Oklahoma City Thunder. We're predicting another slight tumble down the standings, one that will force Los Angeles to open the playoffs on the road.
A 26th-ranked defense since the All-Star break has led to a 6-8 record, which isn't shocking for a veteran team that's likely just waiting for the playoffs to begin.
It would be a disappointment for the Clippers to play so well throughout the meat of the regular season and still fall to No. 5 in the West, although that's exactly what's about to happen if this team doesn't start defending with a sense of urgency over the final few weeks.
West Quarterfinals: (3) Minnesota Timberwolves vs. (6) Dallas Mavericks
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Minnesota Timberwolves
Current Record/Seed: 47-21, 2nd in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 12th overall
Give credit to the Wolves, who went 4-2 overall on a six-game road trip despite losing Karl-Anthony Towns and missing Rudy Gobert for three of the contests.
There's still a chance that Minnesota winds up with the No. 1 seed in the West, although its biggest competitors (Oklahoma City Thunder, Denver Nuggets) are two of the hottest teams in the NBA since the All-Star break.
We'll see if a dislocated finger suffered by Anthony Edwards during this Dunk of the Year candidate will impact him at all moving forward, as the Wolves need their All-Star guard more than ever with Towns sidelined.
Dallas Mavericks
Current Record/Seed: 39-29, 7th in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 29th overall
The Mavs are just 7-6 overall since the All-Star break and are one Kyrie Irving left-hand hook of a game-winner from going to overtime and possibly having a losing record in that stretch. What should help moving forward is that Dallas has the second-easiest remaining schedule of any NBA team.
The Mavericks only have three total games left against the top-nine seeds in the West (one vs. Oklahoma City Thunder and two vs. Sacramento Kings) and will play the Detroit Pistons, San Antonio Spurs, Charlotte Hornets and Utah Jazz a combined five times over the final four weeks.
Dallas has done nothing to make us believe that it can actually win a first-round series, although such a soft schedule the rest of the way should land it the No. 6 seed.
West Quarterfinals: (2) Oklahoma City Thunder vs. (7) Phoenix Suns
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Oklahoma City Thunder
Current Record/Seed: 47-20, 1st in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 7th overall
OKC is going to be in a battle with the Denver Nuggets (and possibly Minnesota Timberwolves) possibly until the final day of the regular season. This is a young group that should have fresher legs than most squads and will be hungry to secure home-court advantage through the West playoffs.
Still, a tough schedule to end the season will ultimately hurt the Thunder. A five-game road trip is quickly approaching, with stops in Boston, New York and Philadelphia. OKC also has road contests against the Milwaukee Bucks and New Orleans Pelicans.
In what will be a tight race, the Thunder lose the schedule battle, and with it, the No. 1 seed in the West.
Phoenix Suns
Current Record/Seed: 39-29, 8th in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 2nd overall
Thunder-Suns would be an unbelievable first-round matchup, as there's plenty of star power and storylines to go around.
Kevin Durant opening his 13th trip to the playoffs in Oklahoma City against the franchise he spent his first nine seasons with would certainly be emotional. We'd get a great Shai Gilgeous-Alexander-Devin Booker head-to-head matchup as well.
The Suns face the NBA's second-toughest schedule to end the season and therefore project to remain a play-in team.
While we like their chances against the Sacramento Kings in a 7-8 matchup (more on the Kings in a minute), Phoenix isn't going to rise higher than the seventh seed in this loaded West.
West Quarterfinals: (1) Denver Nuggets vs. (8) Sacramento Kings
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Denver Nuggets
Current Record/Seed: 47-21, 3rd in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 22nd overall
The Oklahoma City Thunder will push these Nuggets over the next few weeks, although a vast difference in strength of schedule (22nd compared to seventh for OKC) will ultimately mean the difference.
Denver is tied with the Boston Celtics for the best record following the All-Star break (11-2) and is second only to Boston in net rating (plus-10.3). Unlike a year ago when they actually stumbled down the stretch before winning the 2023 title, the Nuggets are peaking at the right time.
With no remaining games against the Celtics, Thunder, Milwaukee Bucks, New Orleans Pelicans, Sacramento Kings or Dallas Mavericks, Denver has the leg up on OKC for the No. 1 seed in the West.
Sacramento Kings
Current Record/Seed: 36-26, 6th in West
Remaining SOS Difficulty Rank: 9th overall
Hide your eyes, Los Angeles Lakers fans. If it comes down to Kings-Lakers in a play-in game, we can't ignore the 10-0 record Domantas Sabonis owns over Anthony Davis. The Kings finished a perfect 4-0 against their California rivals this season alone as well.
Currently a half game up on the Dallas Mavericks for the No. 6 seed and final guaranteed playoff spot, the Kings face a far tougher remaining schedule (ninth compared to 29th for Dallas) and should fall back into the play-in tournament.
We're projecting an initial loss to a loaded Phoenix Suns team before Sacramento knocks off the Lakers and punches their ticket to the playoffs for a second straight year. Despite the difference in seeds, Kings-Nuggets could go the distance with a pair of tantalizing matchups (Sabonis-Nikola Jokić, De'Aaron Fox-Jamal Murray) headlining the action.
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