NFL Division-by-Division Rankings After First Week of 2024 Free Agency
The first week of free agency is now in the books, making this an ideal time to begin projecting the league's hierarchy for the upcoming 2024 NFL season.
A series of marquee free-agent signings and blockbuster trades have taken place in recent days, moves that have made a considerable impact on the NFL's perceived power structure. This player movement has shuffled up divisions, with some teams now looking better than they were in 2023, others much worse off and the rest somewhere in the middle.
With that in mind, here's the first post-free agency divisional power rankings in order from worst to first:
8. NFC South
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The NFC South was the weakest division in football last year and looks poised to remain as such in 2024.
While the Tampa Bay Buccaneers took the crown last year, they may find it difficult to stay atop the division. The team was able to keep things relatively status quo by retaining key free agents like Baker Mayfield, Mike Evans and Antoine Winfield Jr., but it didn't make any major additions on the open market. The lack of incoming firepower could cost Tampa a chance at a fourth straight divisional title, especially with one of their rivals pulling off arguably the biggest move of all during the free-agent signing period.
The Atlanta Falcons completely revamped their offense with the signing of Kirk Cousins. The veteran signal-caller fills what has been the most glaring hole on the team's roster since the departure of Matt Ryan and significantly lifts the ceiling on this squad's potential. Cousins' presence along with a new coaching staff could see the Falcons ascend from a perennial 7-10 team to a playoff force if all goes to plan.
The rest of the division remains weak. The New Orleans Saints didn't have much cap space to work with and failed to make any notable free-agent signings. The team won't bottom out with Derek Carr under center but won't be a serious postseason threat either.
It's hard to see a path for the Carolina Panthers to exit the league's basement in 2024 either. The team squandered Year 1 of Bryce Young's development and the incoming coaching staff has a lot of ground to make up. While the Panthers did bolster the offensive line and add a quality receiver in Diontae Johnson, there's too many holes on both sides of the ball for this team to finish anywhere besides the bottom of the standings.
7. AFC South
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The AFC South was surprisingly competitive last season with three teams finishing 9-8 or better, but only the Houston Texans went on to make the playoffs after posting a 10-7 record.
The Texans remain the team to beat in the division and should improve slightly if C.J. Stroud continues his development into a franchise passer. The rookie almost single-handedly turned this squad into a contender after it spent years wallowing in the NFL's basement, but a thorough shellacking in the Divisional round proved there is still a long way to go before Houston can even think about a Super Bowl.
Veteran additions like Danielle Hunter and Joe Mixon make Houston unquestionably better, but barring some sizable contributions from the incoming draft class, this team still won't be a realistic championship contender quite yet.
The Jacksonville Jaguars are the main threat to Houston winning back-to-back AFC South crowns. Trevor Lawrence remains one of the league's top up-and-coming signal-callers and his supporting cast gained another playmaker thanks to the Gabe Davis signing. No move may be more impactful than the hiring of Ryan Nielsen, however, as Jacksonville's defense woefully underperformed last year under former defensive coordinator Mike Caldwell.
The Indianapolis Colts are an x-factor in 2024 largely due to quarterback Anthony Richardson. The rookie flashed serious potential in his four starts last year, but opponents have an offseason to study the tape and scheme to stop the athletic passer. Indy's brass elected to stay quiet in free agency and retain homegrown talent like Michael Pittman Jr. and Kenny Moore II, putting even more pressure on Richardson to deliver in Year 2.
The Tennessee Titans are the most likely AFC South squad to take a step back this coming season. Parting ways with Derrick Henry means the offense will look much different than it has over the last half-decade, especially with quarterback Will Levis set to take over under center on a full-time basis. Expect plenty of growing pains while Tennessee undergoes this transition.
6. NFC East
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The NFC East is one of the NFL's more polarizing divisions right now. It features a pair of arguable top-10 teams in the Philadelphia Eagles and Dallas Cowboys, as well as two teams that are likely to be downright terrible in the New York Giants and Washington Commanders.
While Dallas' sustained regular season success under head coach Mike McCarthy lifts this unit, the team can't seem to find meaningful playoff victories during his reign. Three consecutive 12-5 campaigns has resulted in zero Super Bowl appearances and the club is now going on nearly three decades since it last went beyond the Divisional round. The lack of any truly notable free-agent pickups only further hurts the Cowboys' chances of finally getting over the hump.
Philadelphia went from a juggernaut in the NFC to a laughingstock following a collapse in the back half of the 2023 season. The team must recover from an embarrassing Wild Card round exit without both Jason Kelce and Fletcher Cox, a pair of foundational pieces in the trenches who retired this offseason. The team did make waves on the open market, however, by signing a playmaker in Saquon Barkley to reinforce the offense and adding Devin White, C.J. Gardner-Johnson and Bryce Huff to shore up the defense, moves that will surely help the Eagles right the ship in 2024.
The rest of the NFC East will be hard-pressed to win many games this year.
The Giants took a major step back by letting Barkley walk and replacing him with Devin Singletary. Even after shoring up the offensive line by signing Jon Runyan Jr. and Jermaine Eluemunor, the offense will struggle mightily to put points on the board, offsetting the massive defensive improvement the front office made by trading for Brian Burns.
Washington is a leading candidate to have the NFL's worst record in 2024. The team may have brought in some veterans like Frankie Luvu and Bobby Wagner to bolster the defense and added Austin Ekeler to the backfield, but there's not enough here to win consistently. The team has no proven quarterback after trading Sam Howell and the rookie that the Commanders are likely to draft at No. 2 overall will be thrust into a bad situation with little support around him.
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5. AFC West
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As great as the Kansas City Chiefs are—it would be tough to argue they deserve to be anywhere aside from No. 1 on any power rankings list after winning back-to-back Super Bowls—the AFC West still doesn't come close to being the league's strongest division.
The Chiefs were the only AFC West squad to reach the playoffs last year and even they struggled at times during the regular season. The team's 11-6 finish was its worst since Patrick Mahomes began starting, but the front office's ability to retain most of their key free agents in addition to signing Marquise Brown should ensure the Chiefs once again post one of the league's best records.
Expect the Los Angeles Chargers to vastly improve upon their pitiful 2023 showing. On paper, they are the second-best AFC West squad, especially after the franchise finally rid itself of head coach Brandon Staley and replaced him with Jim Harbaugh. If Harbaugh can get Justin Herbert's career back on track and lift this offense to new heights, it can be one of the tougher teams to topple.
Both the Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders appear to be in states of transition and aren't likely to be much of a factor.
The Broncos finally decided to wash their hands clean of the ill-fated Russell Wilson trade and contract extension, but the sheer size of the quarterback's dead cap hit will make it difficult for Denver to field a contending roster this year. The team focused on retaining its own free agents and only made minor moves on the open market.
The Raiders finished the 2023 campaign strong under interim head coach Antonio Pierce, but it remains to be seen if he has enough firepower to finish above .500 in his first full season on the job. Signing Christian Wilkins to a blockbuster contract will help, but even the elite defensive tackle won't be enough to make Vegas a consistent force
4. AFC East
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The AFC East's star has faded with the decline of the New England Patriots. This is no longer one of the best divisions in football with a powerhouse at the top, but there are still several quality teams lurking.
While the Buffalo Bills have been the team to beat in the post-Tom Brady era, they have just one AFC Championship Game appearance to show for 48 wins over the last four years. Buffalo narrowly fought off the surging Miami Dolphins to win its fourth consecutive AFC East crown last season and may slip down the standings after Curtis Samuel became the team's top pickup. Given this roster lost a slew of impact talent and failed to replace most of those pieces, it could be a down year in Orchard Park.
The Dolphins are looking like the frontrunners to win their first AFC East title since 2008—even after a relatively quiet approach to free agency. Jordan Poyer and Shaq Barrett upgrade their respective positions, while Kendall Fuller provides the team a serviceable corner to start opposite of Jalen Ramsey. There are still some holes to fill here via the draft, but the league's reigning No. 1 offense should be as exciting as ever in 2024.
The New York Jets are the x-factor in the AFC East thanks to the presence of Aaron Rodgers. The two-time MVP had the start of his tenure in the Big Apple marred by an injury just four plays in, but Rodgers could elevate this squad to a legitimate Super Bowl contender. He has plenty of weapons surrounding him—including improved protection after a trade for Morgan Moses—and the Jets may not even be finished reloading, giving themselves a real chance to compete before the future Hall of Famer retires.
New England still looks a couple years away from becoming a factor again. The team mercifully parted ways with Mac Jones this offseason and will likely be entering a new era with a rookie quarterback selected at No. 3 overall. Jacoby Brissett could be a decent bridge quarterback, but the roster lacks a clearcut No. 1 wideout and plenty of other pieces are needed on both sides of the ball to field a worthwhile lineup.
3. NFC North
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No division may be on the rise more than the NFC North.
The Detroit Lions look downright elite and could have represented the NFC in the Super Bowl had they not collapsed in the second half of their first Championship Game appearance since the 1991 season. Head coach Dan Campbell has built a hard-nosed, tough football team that has all the pieces necessary to make another deep playoff run. Picking up solid players like DJ Reader and Graham Glasgow on the open market only further improves Detroit's chances of running it back in the NFC North.
The Green Bay Packers will put up a heck of a fight for the divisional crown, however, as they have reloaded in a big way following their surprise playoff run in 2023. Their biggest move was parting ways with longtime running back Aaron Jones and upgrading to Josh Jacobs, a player who can shoulder a big workload and take the heat off Jordan Love. The defense needed a playmaking safety and got one thanks to the Xavier McKinney signing, signifying increased importance on a position that the Packers have largely ignored for the last half-decade.
The Chicago Bears may have been a disappointment in 2023, but they have more potential than arguably any other team in the league right now. Armed with No. 1 overall pick and another top-10 selection to make next month, the Bears are moving into a new era with a rookie quarterback at the helm. Free-agent signings like D'Andre Swift and Gerald Everett will make that transition easier, while bringing Kevin Byard into a secondary that also managed to keep Jaylon Johnson on a long-term deal sets the defense up nicely. This may not be a playoff team in 2024, but it doesn't look like it will be much longer before the Bears are contending.
The Minnesota Vikings are the clear-cut worst team in the division and will almost certainly struggle without Kirk Cousins. There are still exciting pieces like Justin Jefferson to build around and signings like Jonathan Greenard, Aaron Jones and Sam Darnold will keep the club from completely bottoming out, but there's enough here to consistently win. That will change quickly once Minnesota find its quarterback of the future.
2. NFC West
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The NFC West has been and will remain one of the stronger divisions in the NFL.
The San Francisco 49ers stand atop it after coming up just short of a Super Bowl title for the second time in the last four years. That humbling defeat against the Kansas City Chiefs could conceivably start a downward spiral—the same way a loss in Super Bowl LIV preceded a dismal 6-10 campaign in 2020—but San Francisco has accumulated too much talent to miss the playoffs.
Barring major injuries, the Niners should be back with a vengeance in 2024. They reloaded their defense in free agency by coming to terms with Leonard Floyd, De'Vondre Campbell, Maliek Collins, Jordan Elliott and Yetur Gross-Matos, among others, and didn't need to make any flashy moves to bolster an offense that ranked No. 2 last season.
There's not much threat of San Francisco being dethroned atop the NFC West, but the Los Angeles Rams could make things interesting. L.A. bounced back after fielding the worst title defense of all time in 2022, going 10-7 and putting up a good fight in the Wild Card round of the playoffs a year later. While the loss of the irreplaceable Aaron Donald to retirement will sting, the squad did add Darious Williams and Kamren Curl to reinforce an already formidable defense.
The Seattle Seahawks are the most unknown team in the NFC West after parting ways with head coach Pete Carroll following 14 years in that role. The team will forge ahead with Mike Macdonald at the helm of a lineup that hasn't made any major additions on the open market. Seattle will need to nail its draft to have a real chance to improve upon the middling 9-8 year it had in 2023.
While the Arizona Cardinals should be better than their 4-13 record in 2023 indicates as long as Kyler Murray can remain healthy and start for the full season, they are still in rebuilding mode and have more work to do before returning to the playoffs. Arizona's upcoming 11 picks in the 2024 draft—including a pair or first-rounders and six in the top-90—should solidify the nucleus of an exciting young team on the rise.
1. AFC North
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The AFC North will be the most difficult division to win in 2024.
This division is headlined by a pair of legitimate, well-rounded Super Bowl contenders in the Baltimore Ravens and Cincinnati Bengals. There is also a Cleveland Browns side that boasted the NFL's top defense to contend with and a Pittsburgh Steelers squad that still managed to make the playoffs despite significant quarterback woes—issues the team appears to have already solved only a week into the new league year.
The Ravens will be looking to bounce back after their league-best regular season only resulted in a disappointing exit in the AFC Championship Game. The club retained a Pro Bowl defensive lineman in Justin Madubuike and shored up the backfield by coming to terms with Derrick Henry. While the Ravens still have work to do after losing a slew of free agents to rival teams, they have the cash and draft picks to ultimately field an even better roster than they did last year.
While the Bengals didn't reach the playoffs last year—they were only AFC North team to miss out—they should bounce back in a big way with a healthy Joe Burrow returning to action. His presence alone greatly lifts Cincinnati, but additions like Sheldon Rankins, Mike Gesicki and Zack Moss certainly won't hurt either. Even the loss of standout offensive coordinator Brian Callahan won't deter the Bengals from getting back into the postseason mix in 2024.
The Browns have the AFC North's biggest question mark to sort out with Deshaun Watson. The polarizing signal-caller only made six starts last year, and while he went 5-1 in them, he hasn't looked like the three-time Pro Bowler the team was hoping to get when it brought him in via a blockbuster trade during the 2022 offseason. Jameis Winston is now the backup in Cleveland and could get some run if Watson can't figure things out—a situation the Browns should be hoping to avoid.
The Steelers are brimming with upside after adding both Justin Fields and Russell Wilson this offseason. Moving on from the disappointing Kenny Pickett and bringing in these new passers should massively elevate the team's offense in 2024. Regardless of whom wins the starting job in training camp, the stage is now set for what should be a refreshing campaign following years of disappointing offensive showings in wake of Ben Roethlisberger's retirement.
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