Men's NCAA Tournament 2024: Chaos Bracket That Could Actually Happen
The men's NCAA tournament is always full of surprises, and those unexpected results adorn highlight reels for many years.
Yes, there's a very good reason it's called March Madness. That unpredictability—equal parts entertaining and exasperating, for the record—is the source of some truly wild bracket predictions each year, too.
Once again, we're joining the fun.
Along with my colleagues here at Bleacher Report, we will have serious—and, at least from me, seriously flawed—official picks in the coming days. One of my favorite pieces for the Big Dance, however, is the chaos bracket, where I can unleash some sizzling hot takes.
Back in 2019 and 2021, it went extremely well. The last two seasons, though, not so much.
It's time for redemption.
East Region
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Biggest first-round upset: No. 15 South Dakota State over No. 2 Iowa State
"You mean the same Iowa State team fresh off a demolition of top-seeded Houston?" Yeah, that one. Spectacular defense has carried ISU this season, and the unit has been particularly strong on the perimeter lately. However, the Cyclones can endure some terribly frigid scoring droughts and rank 216th in offensive rebound rate allowed. The blueprint is specific, but it's there for South Dakota State.
Biggest second-round upset: No. 6 BYU over No. 3 Illinois
In a potential high-tempo matchup, BYU would be launching shots from the perimeter. No team in March Madness attempts threes at a higher clip (50.7 percent) than the Cougars. Illinois undoubtedly has an offense capable of keeping up, but a defense that is 206th in transition, per Hoop-Math.com, and 231st against triples is vulnerable.
Final Four team: No. 1 Connecticut
Sorry, no excitement here. During the 2000s and 2010s, only one tournament included zero No. 1 seeds in the Final Four. What is apparently a once-a-decade outlier happened last year. I'll try to bank some bracket points with UConn, which looks like a juggernaut.
South Region
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Biggest first-round upset: No. 12 James Madison over No. 5 Wisconsin
Wisconsin is ordinarily a defense-first team, but the Badgers have leaned on their offense this season. The problem, then, is simple: Wisconsin could simply have a bad game and watch James Madison run all over 'em. JMU has scored 84.4 points per outing with the 26th-best field-goal percentage in the country. Throw in an early victory over Michigan State, and JMU is undeniably built for an upset.
Biggest second-round upset: No. 8 Nebraska over No. 1 Houston
Houston's defensive is typically stellar, but a streaky offense has been a simmering issue. The disgusting loss to Iowa State in the Big 12 tournament only amplified the concern, one on which Nebraska can capitalize. The balanced 'Huskers have a stable of willing shooters on the perimeter that—if they get hot—would be especially dangerous to Houston.
Final Four team: No. 3 Kentucky
Houston's defense is elite, but perhaps the Cougars get bounced early. So, naturally, an overwhelming Kentucky offense would manage to survive its sieve of a defense. That's the kind of nonsensical chaos that March may produce. Kentucky, averaging 89.4 points per game, can pack a ferocious long-range punch. I don't trust the defense to actually win a national title, but making the Final Four is doable.
Midwest Region
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Biggest first-round upset: No. 13 Samford over No. 4 Kansas
Samford owns the seventh-best three-point percentage in the nation, so that's a pretty basic appeal. The greater challenge for Kansas is the health of stars Hunter Dickinson and Kevin McCullar Jr., so their effectiveness—even if available to play—is a massive storyline.
Biggest second-round upset: No. 10 Virginia over No. 2 Tennessee
Doesn't it always seem like an aesthetically unappealing team carves out a couple of wins in March? Virginia's slow-tempo style is nothing new, but the Cavaliers have 23 victories behind yet another stingy defense. Tennessee's supporting cast around Dalton Knecht is highly inefficient, so a proverbial rock fight with limited possessions could lean UVA's way.
Final Four team: No. 5 Gonzaga
Thanks to Samford's upset, Gonzaga wouldn't need to face Kansas in the second round. And the No. 1 seed in the Midwest Region is Purdue, which doesn't exactly have a sparkling history in March. I love Creighton on the other side of the bracket—probably a spoiler alert for my official picks—but chaos dictates the No. 5 seed advancing. So much for a "down season" at Gonzaga, in this case.
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West Region
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Biggest first-round upset: No. 14 Colgate over No. 3 Baylor
Baylor's offense ranks 22nd nationally in field-goal percentage, while its defense is 283rd in the category. Not very difficult to pick out a concern, right? Colgate, meanwhile, can—on paper—counteract Baylor's efficiency on the perimeter. Colgate boasts the country's 13th-best three-point defense and is comfortable matching Baylor's slow tempo.
Biggest second-round upset: No. 13 Charleston over No. 4 Alabama
Generally speaking, I want to remain consistent with my predictions in any sport. Did I say offense or defense matters most? Determine that, and be steady on that belief. That, however, does not apply to a chaos bracket in which I advanced Kentucky to the Final Four. Goodbye, Alabama, the highest-scoring team in the nation. Being allergic to defense tends to become a problem in March.
Final Four team: No. 8 Mississippi State
Time to get spicy! During the last decade, only one tournament has not featured a No. 7 seed or worse in the Final Four. Mississippi State showed its upside with an SEC tourney upset of Tennessee, and the Bulldogs' blend of excellent rebounding and perimeter defense is intriguing in a second-round tilt opposite No. 1 North Carolina. Same goes for second-seeded Arizona in a possible Elite Eight game. (Now please don't lose to Michigan State right away.)
Final Four
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Some jaw-dropping results later, the national semifinals are set. Connecticut takes on sleeper Mississippi State, while Kentucky meets Gonzaga in a rematch of a February regular-season clash.
The first contest? Well, midnight strikes for Mississippi State.
Connecticut has just wrecked everyone in its path for three straight months. Even in an intensely hypothetical world, I can hardly imagine the upstart SEC squad knocking off a healthy UConn roster.
On the opposite side of the bracket, Kentucky would be looking for redemption. Gonzaga went into Rupp Arena and toppled UK in a victory that sparked the Zags' timely late-season ascent. However, the shaky defense ultimately catches up to Kentucky in another Gonzaga win.
No chaos in the championship, though.
Connecticut becomes the first back-to-back NCAA tournament champion since Florida in 2006 and 2007. The Huskies have five 10-point scorers and elite marks in rebounding and two-point defense, giving UConn a tremendous shot at the program's sixth national title.
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