NCAA Brackets 2022: The Chaos Bracket That Could Actually Happen

We didn't fall in love with the NCAA tournament because it follows expectations. No, March Madness is filled with chaos. And every year, millions of us attempt to predict the mayhem set to ensue.

Welcome back to B/R's Chaos Bracket, friends.

Although our very clear intent is to forecast wild results in the 2022 men's tournament, it's not done haphazardly. You're not about to see a No. 16 seed in the Final Four, for example.

Plus, we have a fair bit of success in this department. After predicting three of the Final Four qualifiers in 2019, our 2021 chaos bracket ended in the 93rd percentile of ESPN's Tournament Challenge, and we're only looking to improve in 2022.

Each choice is highly subjective but considers recent performance, key statistics and both team and NCAA tournament trends.

West Region

Colin E. Braley/Associated Press

Biggest first-round upset: No. 13 Vermont over No. 4 Arkansas

After a dominant run through the America East this season, Vermont is a rough matchup for Arkansas. While the Razorbacks have KenPom's 28th-fastest adjusted tempo and are 320th in three-point percentage, Vermont ranks 288th in tempo and hit 41.0 percent of their long-range shots in conference play.

Biggest second-round upset: No. 10 Davidson over No. 2 Duke

Duke lost to Virginia Tech in the ACC tournament title because Hunter Cattoor would not stop hitting threes. Davidson has three players—Foster Loyer, Hyunjung Lee and Mike Jones—who have buried at least six triples in a game this season.

Final Four team: No. 3 Texas Tech

Given that Gonzaga is the No. 1 overall seed, a chaos bracket can't include the Zags, right? We're not here for storybooks endings in Mike Krzyzewski's final trip to the NCAA tournament, either. And so, we land on Texas Tech, the nation's leader in adjusted defensive efficiency, per KenPom.

Midwest Region

Chris O'Meara/Associated Press

Biggest first-round upset: No. 14 Colgate over No. 3 Wisconsin

In the Round of 64 last season, Colgate took a 14-point lead on Arkansas before the Razorbacks recovered. Once again, though, Colgate has an elite perimeter group; the Raiders are shooting 40.3 percent from beyond the arc. Wisconsin ranks 300th in the category and rarely forces turnovers, so there's a definite path to an upset.

Biggest second-round upset: No. 13 South Dakota State over No. 5 Iowa

It's ridiculous how many shooters SDSU can roll out. Not only do the Jackrabbits lead the nation with a 44.9 perimeter clip—which is flat-out ridiculous, for the record—five rotation players are 41.7 percent or better while attempting two-plus triples per game. South Dakota State will be a thorn for Providence and potentially Iowa.

Final Four team: No. 2 Auburn

Based on how Auburn has rebounded lately, a second-round date against USC would be challenging. Project a win there, however, and Auburn should be a heavy favorite in the Sweet 16—especially if Colgate upsets Wisconsin, as we've included here. Kansas may await in the Elite Eight, but the Tigers have the perimeter defense to contain KU and would have a major edge with Walker Kessler protecting the rim.

South Region

John Froschauer/Associated Press

Biggest first-round upset: No. 13 Chattanooga over No. 4 Illinois

To beat Illinois, it's crucial to win the rebounding battle. So far, the Illini are 2-7 when corralling less than 50 percent of available misses. Chattanooga ranks 35th in total rebound rate and is also 302nd in tempo, per KenPom. Control the glass, slow the pace and the Mocs should have a chance.

Biggest second-round upset: No. 10 Loyola-Chicago over No. 2 Villanova

Villanova has an established trend, too. In games the 'Cats have ceded nine-plus threes, they're 5-6. In all other contests, Villanova is 21-1. Loyola has buried nine-plus triples 13 times this season, posting the nation's 11th-best long-range percentage overall.

Final Four team: No. 1 Arizona

Since the men's tourney expanded to 64 teams in 1985, only twice has the Final Four not included a No. 1 seed. Respect the trend, folks. Arizona's excellence inside the arc dominates the South Region.

East Region

John Locher/Associated Press

Biggest first-round upset: No. 12 Wyoming over No. 5 Saint Mary's

Whichever team eliminates Saint Mary's will need to have an efficient day from the outside. This would require a rapid improvement from Wyoming, which has a measly 30.7 long-range clip since February began. However, the Pokes rank 51st in three-point attempt rate, so they already launch a bunch of them anyway. In a one-game sample, maybe the shots suddenly start falling.

Biggest second-round upset: No. 8 North Carolina over No. 1 Baylor

Last season, Michigan didn't have key scorer Isaiah Livers and found itself in a tough second-round game opposite LSU. The same may happen for Baylor, which is certain to play without Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua and possibly LJ Cryer, too. North Carolina's depth is thin, but the starting group has four 13-point scorers. 

Final Four team: No. 4 UCLA

Welcome back to the Final Four, UCLA. Consider this return a product of those two aforementioned results, since the Bruins' possible path would include No. 13 Akron, No. 12 Wyoming and No. 8 UNC before, in theory, meeting a tougher team in the Elite Eight. Can't imagine UCLA would complain about it, though.

Final Four

Rick Scuteri/Associated Press

Four rounds of madness later, the national semifinals would pit the Texas Tech Red Raiders against the UCLA Bruins and the Arizona Wildcats opposite the Auburn Tigers.

Wouldn't it be wild if UCLA and Arizona both won? Although two programs from one conference making the Final Four is common, not since Kansas' victory over Oklahoma in 1988 has the national championship featured two schools from the same league.

Well, the streak goes on. Arizona takes down Auburn, but Texas Tech outlasts UCLA to set up the title showdown.

Unfortunately for the Red Raiders, there's a two-decade trend working against them. KenPom data reaches back to 2002, and no champion has ranked lower than 39th in adjusted offensive efficiency. Texas Tech enters the NCAA tournament at No. 65.

Sorry about the math, Tech. Our mayhem has some boundaries.

The chaotic cherry on top would be Arizona's Tommy Lloyd winning a national title in his debut season as head coach and the program earning its first championship in 25 years.

Statistics courtesy of KenPom.com or Sports Reference unless otherwise noted. Follow Bleacher Report writer David Kenyon on Twitter @Kenyon19_BR.