March Madness 2024: Men's Bracketology and NET Rankings Before Selection Sunday

With conference tournaments concluding this weekend, Selection Sunday is nearing and the NCAA Tournament picture is becoming clearer.

Some teams have solidified themselves in the field of 68 through strong performances in conference tournaments, while other teams have hurt their seeding positions or sealed their fate with shaky performances and early conference tournament exits.

Some conferences have concluded their tournaments already, but many conferences, including all of the Power 6 conferences, will finish their tournaments on Saturday and Sunday to determine which team will earn an automatic bid to the big dance.

ESPN's bracket expert Joe Lunardi has constantly updated Bracketology throughout the week to give fans an idea of what the tournament field will look like. Lunardi gives Purdue the edge as the top overall seed, though that could change in the final days of the Big Ten tournament.

Bleacher Report's Bracketology has the Boilermakers, Houston, UConn and North Carolina as the top four seeds heading into the weekend.

The NCAA NET Rankings, which replaced the RPI ahead of the 2018-19 season, is one of college basketball's best sources for determining how the selection committee will rank teams heading into Selection Sunday.

College basketball is one of the most unpredictable sources, though, so plenty can happen over the next two days to completely alter the tournament picture.

Heading into the final two days before Selection Sunday, here are some tournament storylines to keep an eye on.

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Houston's Case for Top Seed

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KANSAS CITY, MO - MARCH 14: Houston Cougars forward J'Wan Roberts (13) in the second half of a Big 12 tournament quarterfinal game between the TCU Horned Frogs and Houston Cougars on Mar 14, 2024 at T-Mobile Center in Kansas City, MO. (Photo by Scott Winters/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)

While there are plenty of teams that seem more than capable of making a big run in the tournament, the top seed in the tournament is a three-way race between Houston, UConn and Purdue.

All three teams have strong cases to earn the top seed.

The Boilermakers are 28-3 on the season and have the chance to win back-to-back Big Ten Tournaments this weekend. Led by veteran Zach Edey, Purdue has 11 Quad 1 wins and its only three losses have all been Quad 1.

On paper, UConn is nearly identical to Purdue. The Huskies are 30-3 on the year, going 11-3 in Quad 1 games. They have the chance to bolster their record in the Big East championship game on Saturday.

Houston, the No. 1 NET team, has the most Quad 1 wins this season with 14 and its only three losses have been to Quad 1 teams. The Cougars have a chance to add another Quad 1 win in the Big 12 Championship.

What makes Houston's season so impressive is how the Cougars seamlessly made the transition into the Big 12. Houston dominated the American Athletic Conference over the last five seasons, but jumping into the Big 12 was going to be a huge test. The Cougars passed that test with flying colors, going 15-3 in conference play to win arguably the best conference in college basketball this season.

If UConn and Purdue fail to win their conference tournament championships and Houston hangs on to win the Big 12 Tournament, there should be no question about which team gets the top overall seed. If all three teams win their conference tournaments, the decision becomes harder, but Houston's outstanding season could give it the edge over Purdue and UConn.

Conference Tournaments Could Have Decided Final No. 1 Seed

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WASHINGTON, DC - MARCH 14: Armando Bacot #5 of the North Carolina Tar Heels celebrates in the first half against the Florida State Seminoles in the Quarterfinals of the ACC Men's Basketball Tournament at Capital One Arena on March 14, 2024 in Washington, DC. (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

It's not every year that conference tournaments matter for already-tournament-bound teams as much as they did this year.

Heading into conference tournament week, the race for the final No. 1 seed was mostly between Tennessee and North Carolina. The two teams each won their regular season conference titles and have similar resumes, with the Tar Heels having a slight edge because of their head-to-head win over the Vols back in November.

Before the semifinals of the ACC and SEC Tournaments, North Carolina could have already sealed its place as the final No. 1 seed.

The race was likely going to come down to who had the better conference tournament between the Vols and the Tar Heels, and North Carolina has already out-performed Tennessee.

Tennessee lost its quarterfinal matchup against No. 9-seeded Mississippi State in embarrassing fashion, 73-56. North Carolina handled its quarterfinal matchup against Florida State with ease, winning 92-67 and followed that up with a semifinal victory over the Pittsburgh Panthers.

The Tar Heels' performance may have shut the door on the Vols' hopes of earning their first No. 1 seed in program history.

ESPN's Joe Lunardi gave North Carolina the nod as the final No. 1 seed even before Tennessee's loss to Mississippi State. After the Vols' early SEC Tournament exit, it seems they will have to settle for the No. 2 seed.

Bubble Teams Make a Noise in Conference Tournaments

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NASHVILLE, TENNESSEE - MARCH 15: Tolu Smith #1 and Shawn Jones Jr #5 of the Mississippi State Bulldogs celebrate in the first half against the Tennessee Volunteers during the quarterfinals of the SEC Basketball Tournament at Bridgestone Arena on March 15, 2024 in Nashville, Tennessee. (Photo by Andy Lyons/Getty Images)

Several of the teams on Lunardi's bubble have made a splash in their respective conference tournaments this week.

Mississippi State, which Lunardi considers to be one of the last four teams receiving a bye, beat LSU in the first round of the SEC tournament before taking down top-seeded Tennessee to advance to the semifinal. The Bulldogs now have a matchup with Auburn with a chance to advance to the championship game.

Even if Mississippi State can't get past Auburn, the Bulldogs left no question that they are worthy of an NCAA tournament bid.

Texas A&M, another SEC team on the bubble, made a strong case to be in the field of 68 in the SEC tournament as well. The Aggies beat Ole Miss before taking down No. 2-seed Kentucky 97-87. The win gave Texas A&M its sixth Quad 1 win of the season.

Pittsburgh, which Lunardi considers to be one of the first teams out of the tournament, picked up its fourth Quad 1 win of the season, beating Wake Forest by double digits on Thursday. The Panthers could have boosted their tournament chances with a win over North Carolina on Friday, but they came up just short. Still, Pitt helped its NCAA tournament case by reaching the ACC Tournament semifinal this week.

Heading into conference tournament week, Providence had a handful of key wins throughout the season, but needed more to make them a tournament. The Friars picked up a huge resume booster in the Big East tournament on Thursday, beating Creighton to advance to the semifinals. Ultimately, Providence couldn't get it done against Marquette, but with six Quad 1 wins on the season now, it wouldn't be a surprise to see the Friars sneak into the big dance.

Teams on the bubble will have to await the decision of the selection committee on Sunday, but a handful might have earned a tournament bid through strong showings this week.