NBA Players Most Likely to Sign Extensions Ahead of 2024 Free Agency
NBA free agency begins in July, but not all expiring players will hit the market.
Some will re-sign with their current teams before the end of June, or if they have an option, opt into their final season to extend.
Rule changes officially allow teams to discuss new contracts with potential free agents the day after the NBA Finals concludes, but in plain terms, the rules are typically ignored. Early negotiations, though illegal, are a standard practice—though the league will duly punish if anything leaks out or if the NBA finds a paper/digital trail.
It behooves a player's agent to get a firm grip on the market well before negotiations are legal (technically, June 30) because most of the available money is gone by July 1 or 2. So, upon gauging their client's value, an agent may find that keeping his player with the same team may be the best move.
If so, why wait? The sooner a player has guaranteed money locked in, the better.
But not every player is extension-eligible. Only contracts of at least three years of length can be extended (typically after the second anniversary; third year for the longer expiring contracts). That excludes players like Nicolas Claxton of the Brooklyn Nets, Tyus Jones of the Washington Wizards, James Harden of the LA Clippers and D'Angelo Russell of the Los Angeles Lakers.
Extensions before July can start at $16.7 million (140 percent of the estimated average player salary) or, if higher, 140 percent of the player's prior salary. They're also limited to a total of five years, including any pre-existing seasons (like the ending 2023-24 campaign).
Also, if a player was traded within six months of the June 30 deadline, their extension can only add two additional years, and the 140 percent climb is limited to 105 percent. That rule increases to three years and 120 percent in July, but that doesn't help some players that may want to extend in June.
LeBron James
1 of 13
Team: Los Angeles Lakers
Current Salary: $47.6 million
Contract Status: $51.4 million player option
LeBron James last extended for two additional years in August 2022, technically a three-year deal, including the 2022-23 season. He's not extension-eligible if he opts out, but he can extend again this August if he plays out his final year.
With the NBA's current salary cap projection of $141 million, James' eight percent raise from this year to next out-paces the league's 3.7 percent expectation. The maximum for a typical veteran with at least 10 years of experience projects to be $49.4 million, but players are allowed to re-sign for a 5 percent raise, even if it exceeds the max.
That gives James the option of opting in for $51.4 million or opting out to re-sign at just under $50 million. The $1.4 million difference suggests he opts in and then extends at the max for 2025-26, but the Over-38 Rule would limit James to adding two additional seasons.
That may lead James to prefer free agency instead. He could potentially re-sign for three years at about $162 million—even if he loses a little in the first season. That decision will certainly be up to James, assuming the Lakers are game for whatever he chooses.
Pascal Siakam
2 of 13
Team: Indiana Pacers
Current Salary: $37.9 million
Contract Status: Expiring
Pascal Siakam's January trade from the Toronto Raptors keeps him limited through June. The most he can extend for is a raise starting at 105 percent—an arguable figure—but he can only add two additional seasons.
That's an extension killer in this case, but then Siakam can wait until July to sign a new contract for up to five years. He and the Pacers will need to find the correct figure, but Siakam's max projects to be $42.3 million for 2024-25.
He'll need some leverage from other spenders like the Orlando Magic, Detroit Pistons or Philadelphia Sixers to get the most he can from Indiana. Most sources around the league believe he and the team already came to a general understanding when the Toronto deal was done. But timing probably means this won't be done via extension.
OG Anunoby
3 of 13
Team: New York Knicks
Current Salary: $18.6 million
Contract Status: $19.9 million player option
The Knicks acquired OG Anunoby just in time from the Raptors to squeeze in a full extension before July (about six months from the December trade). But Anunoby may seek more than New York can give before free agency.
With the 140 percent starting figure at $26.1 million and a restriction of four additional years, Anunoby may want more than the $116.9 million the team can give in an extension. Still, that's a healthy contract he may be tempted to take.
But it is more likely that Anunoby will enter free agency and try to get more out of New York in terms of starting money and years. His leverage may be the 76ers, who have significant spending power this offseason and need a versatile wing.
Pencil Anunoby back with the Knicks next season, but probably not via extension.
Grayson Allen
4 of 13
Team: Phoenix Suns
Current Salary: $8.9 million
Contract Status: Expiring
Given how well Grayson Allen has fit in with the Suns this season, the team would presumably want to get him back under contract as quickly as possible. Even with the team's sky-high payroll, Allen isn't someone Phoenix can replace via trade or free agency (under the new collective bargaining agreement rules).
Allen might be open to the restriction limiting the Suns' offer to four years (he can get five in free agency), but the challenge is the extension limit. He'll be eligible for $16.7 million starting (off of the estimated average player salary) in an extension, but Allen will be a top-10 free agent this summer.
Will he get more from a team with cap room? His representation is probably willing to explore that possibility.
Tobias Harris
5 of 13
Team: Philadelphia 76ers
Current Salary: $39.3 million
Contract Status: Expiring
Tobias Harris is looking at a drop in pay next season. He's a very good player, but the Sixers were a bit too generous in his last contract (dating back to 2019). Measure Harris by his contribution to the team, and he's been an important piece in Philadelphia. Judge him by his production relative to price; that's a different story.
The Sixers may have big dreams in free agency but may also find that none of their targets (notably Paul George) will likely come. If they find that their best choice is keeping the band together as much as possible, perhaps with a more modest free-agent bounty via cap room, Harris could get a late extension in June.
Unsigned, Harris will take up $49 million of the Sixers' cap space. To spend, they will either need to renounce him altogether or re-sign him first to a lower salary. That process can be short-circuited by extending him at that dollar before July.
Harris may also want to see if some of his former teams are open to a reunion like the Magic or Pistons. He could benefit from a team with cap room (who strikes out on All-Star talent) looking to find a quality veteran.
Buddy Hield
6 of 13
Team: Philadelphia 76ers
Current Salary: $19.8 million
Contract Status: Expiring
Similarly, Buddy Hield may be too important a shooter for the Sixers to let go this summer. Unfortunately, Hield hasn't gotten much time next to injured Joel Embiid (knee), but his skill set matches perfectly with the big man's.
Hield's cap hold is $29.8 million, which should be significantly more than he gets. As with Harris, if Philadelphia wants to bring Hield back, an extension may make a ton of sense at the correct number.
After the February trade from Indiana, Hield can add only two additional years to his deal. That's not a bad thing for the team, given Hield's age (31), but the veteran may prefer opting out to try to secure a longer contract.
De'Anthony Melton
7 of 13
Team: Philadelphia 76ers
Current Salary: $8 million
Contract Status: Expiring
The Sixers are heading into a hectic summer. Guard Tyrese Maxey (restricted but not extension-eligible)., Harris, Hield, and De'Anthony Melton will all be free agents. That's essentially four of the team's five starters.
Melton, 26 in May, is a steady presence on the team when healthy. His cap hold unsigned will be $15.2 million, which is above the non-taxpayer mid-level. Melton may not be high enough on the list of free agents for the top spenders. Once again, Philadelphia may be better served locking him in at a price below that figure.
Maxey's cap hold is just $13 million (and he's likely to get closer to a maximum salary in the $35 million range), so he would re-sign after the team uses its cap space. The problem for the Sixers: if they keep Harris, Hield and Melton at a combined starting salary of $48-50 million, the franchise won't have any real cap space to improve.
Either the team gives up on cap room and extends everyone, lets them all leave as free agents, or, perhaps more realistically, picks two of the three (perhaps via extension) and goes shopping with whatever cap space is left.
If a top target like George chooses the Sixers, Melton may be the only one inexpensive enough to retain.
Gary Trent Jr.
8 of 13
Team: Toronto Raptors
Current Salary: $18.6 million
Contract Status: Expiring
The Raptors and Gary Trent Jr. have previously discussed an extension, but the buzz around the league suggests Toronto may not reinvest. Toronto has gone in a different direction with Anunoby and Siakam trades, but Trent starts regularly for the team and shoots a steady 40.2 percent from three-point range.
He's only 25 and could still be in Toronto for the next few years. The question may be price, and unless Trent can find another franchise with cap room willing to pay him, he'll be limited to those with no more to offer than the non-taxpayer mid-level exception (about $12.9 million starting salary).
Unless Toronto is offering a raise (and that may not be the case), Trent may choose to explore free agency for the best offer—and that could lead him back to the Raptors. That's more or less what Russell did last year with the Lakers, re-signing on a short-term deal as a free agency at a price he could live with (despite a significant drop in pay).
Trent may not want to extend at a $15 million starting salary, but if that's the best he can get from the Raptors in July, that may be the answer.
Klay Thompson
9 of 13
Team: Golden State Warriors
Current Salary: $42.2 million
Contract Status: Expiring
Depending on who you ask, the Warriors are either planning for life beyond Klay Thompson—or will lock him in through the end of Stephen Curry's contract (2025-26). That uncertainty suggests that Golden State may not have decided on a direction just yet.
Thompson will be getting a drop in pay if he's staying because the Warriors are serious about gaining financial sanity under the league's new rules. But can the 34-year-old shooter get real money from teams like the Sixers or Magic? Would he even be open to leaving the West Coast?
There's a compromise to be had, but if the Warriors don't offer enough and other suitors are persistent enough, an extension may not be in the cards.
Jonas Valančiūnas
10 of 13
Team: New Orleans Pelicans
Current Salary: $15.4 million
Contract Status: Expiring
The Pelicans gave Jonas Valančiūnas a two-year extension in October 2021 (technically a three-year deal), and it may be time to give him another at a similar price point.
Almost 32, Valančiūnas plays a valuable starting role for the team as a hefty, traditional center option. New Orleans can go smaller with Zion Williamson and Larry Nance Jr. at center, but having the true big option in Valančiūnas gives coach Willie Green more options.
Without an obvious upgrade, and with few teams around the league with real money looking for over-30 centers, the marriage between the Pelicans and Valančiūnas may renew in June.
Jrue Holiday
11 of 13
Team: Boston Celtics
Current Salary: $36.9 million
Contract Status: $39.4 million player option
The Celtics are too good to change up its core pieces. The franchise gave up a core guard, Marcus Smart, to the Memphis Grizzlies to get Kristaps Porziņģis from the Washington Wizards (in a multi-team trade) but replaced Smart with an upgrade in Jrue Holiday.
The combination of players has worked, but the team faces a bit of a budget crisis under the league's new collective bargaining agreement. Beyond luxury taxes, the Celtics are one of the few second-apron teams facing various penalties in flexibility—Boston needs to find a way to get Holiday back at a lower number than his option.
The choices were limited in the past, but teams can now extend players who opt out for less than the declined amount. Look for the Celtics to offer Holiday a longer deal (probably four additional seasons) but at a lower price (perhaps $28 million starting).
Holiday gives up almost $12 million in year one but gets financial security in the $100-$125 million range over four.
Paul George
12 of 13
Team: LA Clippers
Current Salary: $45.6 million
Contract Status: $48.8 million player option
The Clippers already extended Kawhi Leonard at a projected $149.7 million for three additional seasons. That's not quite the max he could have gotten, but it's a hefty investment in a player nearing 33 with a sordid injury history.
Similarly, Paul George (almost 34) has had some trouble staying healthy but is foundational to what the Clippers are trying to achieve. Fielding a highly competitive roster is paramount as the franchise looks to open the Intuit Dome in Inglewood next season.
Look for the Clippers to give Harden a new contract and George an extension and face whatever financial punishments the new rules have to offer. After a year, LA can reassess—but George and his representation know full well that the Clippers can't replace him if he walks.
And it's believed by many around the NBA that the 76ers will be offering George a max contract, but that he also wants to stay in his hometown, Los Angeles. Look for a compromise favorable to George with the Clippers.
DeMar DeRozan
13 of 13
Team: Chicago Bulls
Current Salary: $28,6 million
Contract Status: Expiring
Several competing executives believe Chicago should blow up its roster. But if the Bulls disagree, then extending DeMar DeRozan makes a lot of sense.
The veteran is the team's top scorer, scoring 23.3 points a game, and is one of the Bulls' most durable players this season despite his age (35 in August). DeRozan may not need much of a raise over his current salary, based on what teams project to have money this summer.
Adding two or three years could work in June, making DeRozan the most likely player to extend this offseason before hitting free agency in July.
Email Eric Pincus at eric.pincus@gmail.com and follow him on X/Twitter @EricPincus.
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