Top 2024 NFL Draft Prospects Falling Down Boards
The annual NFL draft is an evaluation process years in the making.
To the public eye, names and faces for the upcoming class start to become fully known around Christmas time of each year.
Within NFL circles, though, years of studying game film and learning who prospects are sees scouts and personnel develop relationships long before players hear their name called during the talent grab.
While Caleb Williams and Marvin Harrison Jr. will continue to headline the 2024 class, a number of players who were once highly touted have begun to slide down boards across the league.
Each drop in grade has to due to a variety of factors: Poor play, below average testing, unimpressive interviews or all the above. While each of the names here will hear their names called in April, it'll be much later than initially expected a few months ago.
Miami S Kamren Kinchens
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Looked upon as the top safety in the class in summer evaluations for teams, Kamren Kinchens has tumbled down draft boards after unimpressive showings at the Senior Bowl and NFL Combine.
A smaller athlete at 5'11", 203 pounds, the Miami product wasn't expected to blow positional thresholds out of the water, but he was expected to meet them.
For Kinchens, it was much to the contrary after running a 4.65 40 with a 1.59 10-yard split, slower than both ED Chris Braswell (48 pounds heavier) and TE Tip Reiman (68 pounds).
It's not all about testing, as things like tape and game speed are valued differently than linear speed in the 40-yard dash, but fundamental explosiveness is a one-way street, and a 9'2" broad jump (worst at the safety position since 1999) has forced scouts to reevaluate.
Kinchens remains one of the premier ball hawks in the class, a skill set clearly evident on tape, but his lackluster testing in Indianapolis and poor showing in Mobile has seen his name drop dramatically on boards leaguewide.
Once looked upon as a lock for the top 50, don't be surprised if he's available toward the back end of the third round.
Penn State CB Kalen King
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It's a been a rapid fall from grace for Penn State corner Kalen King.
A perimeter stalwart who carried first-round grades from teams in the summer, his film in 2023 left scouts wanting more.
While King has showcased his ability in both man/zone coverage during his years at Penn State, along with ball production that should translate (21 passes defensed in 2022, ranked third in the country), concerns remain toward his top-end speed (a 4.61 40) and transitions at the corner spot.
While teams expect him to challenge for a key role at the next level, his 2023 game tape and poor pre-draft process have done him zero favors in earning the CB1 label in this year's class, a title that was once his to lose.
Texas TE Ja'Tavion Sanders
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This is not the tight end class of 2023 (Dalton Kincaid, Sam LaPorta, Michael Mayer, Luke Musgrave, Darnell Washington, Tucker Kraft) where players jockeyed for position up until draft night, and Ja'Tavion Sanders' standing among the premier flex weapons in the 2024 class remains up in the air.
Georgia's Brock Bowers will be the first TE off the board, but the list of names to follow at the position remains a mystery for teams.
While Sanders remained a core piece for the explosive Texas Longhorns offense in 2023, he "disappeared...too much," according to one AFC East scout.
Although projection is a major part of the evaluation process in identifying how a certain player could mesh with certain correlating surroundings (see LaPorta out of Iowa inside a stagnant aerial attack), a 4.69 40 at the combine for Sanders hasn't helped his case as tight end who wears his hat in space.
While it wouldn't be a shock if Sanders is the second tight end to come off the board, Penn State's Theo Johnson, Iowa's Erick All and Kansas State's Ben Sinnott have all significantly closed the gap that was at the position previously.
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Miami IDL Leonard Taylor III
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It was only a year ago that Leonard Taylor III was looked upon as one of the premier defensive tackles in the 2024 class.
Things change, people talk and his game in a disappointing junior season showcased an athlete who will most likely hear his name called on Day 3.
His athleticism and explosiveness has raised eyebrows for years, but the inability to fine-tune his game technically in 2023 has seen teams raise the caution flag.
Although his game fits the modern trends of adding twitched-up 300-plus pound defensive tackles to push the pocket, Taylor remains far from where talent evaluators projected him to be this time last spring.
Texas A&M IDL McKinnley Jackson
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Spring grades sent out to teams showcased McKinnley Jackson as the premier defensive tackle in the class. He was higher than Illinois' Johnny Newton and Texas Longhorns pair Byron Murphy and T'Vondre Sweat.
However, as the evaluation process enters early spring, teams have begun to sour on the prospect of taking Jackson in the first few rounds.
While his tape in the SEC has flashes worthy of late Day 1 consideration (check out the Auburn and LSU tape), an underwhelming performance at the Senior Bowl has been a negative talking point since events concluded in Mobile.
Scouts have compared his game to former Seattle Seahawk Brandon Mebane (drafted in 2007), and current chatter around the league expects Jackson to hear his name called in the same area (late third/early fourth round) as Mebane did nearly two decades ago.
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