Predicting 2024 NFL Breakout Stars After Latest Free Agent Signings, Trades
The 2024 NFL free agency signing period doesn't officially begin until Wednesday, but a slew of league-altering deals have already been announced related to some of the biggest names on the open market.
While these standout players will clearly make major impacts with their new teams, there could also be several stars emerging in the wake of their movement. Whether the roster spot they vacated is set to be filled by a promising young talent or their ability to impact the game projects to significantly elevate their new teammates, there will be some intriguing ripple effects from these free agency decisions.
With that in mind, let's highlight five players who now look poised to become breakout stars following the latest signings and trades that have opened the new league year.
RB Chase Brown, Cincinnati Bengals
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The Cincinnati Bengals are moving on without Joe Mixon as their feature back, as the veteran has been traded to the Houston Texans after seven years with the club. While the impetus for such a move was the two-year, $8 million deal that Cincinnati agreed to with Zack Moss, Mixon's former backup should actually wind up being the main beneficiary.
Chase Brown had a quiet rookie campaign in 2022, amassing just 179 yards on 44 carries across 12 appearances, but he flashed some impressive talent during his limited snaps. The fifth-round pick out of Illinois started getting some run in the back half of the 2023 season, notably tallying up 61 yards on nine totes in Week 13—his first time seeing extended action—and closing out the year with 43 yards on 11 rushes in Week 18.
Brown also showed his chops as a receiving back last year, reeling in 14 of the 15 targets that came his way for 156 yards. He had his best outing as a pass-catcher in Week 14, a contest in which he tallied up 80 yards on a mere three catches while scoring his lone NFL touchdown.
There's a good chance Brown ends up seeing an increased workload in 2024 after logging just a 12 percent snap share as a rookie. The 5'9", 215-pounder possesses the frame, power and endurance required to wear down opposing defenses via volume.
Brown averaged a hefty 27.3 carries in his final collegiate season, and while he won't sniff that number in the NFL, he could still assume upwards of 10 totes per game this coming year. He also figures to be prominently involved on passing downs and should wind up with a larger target share than Moss, a player who isn't known for his abilities as a receiver.
While Cincinnati's two-man platoon will hold both Moss and Brown back from becoming true superstars, there should be noticeable growth from the latter in his second NFL season. The pair may open the year with a relatively even time share, but it would hardly be a surprise if Brown pulls ahead at some point and ends up being the go-to ball carrier for the Bengals down the stretch.
WR Drake London, Atlanta Falcons
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After agreeing with Kirk Cousins on a blockbuster contract, the Atlanta Falcons finally have the franchise quarterback they've long coveted. The team's offense is set to explode with the proven passer running the show, a stark change from the frustrating ineptness this unit has displayed in recent years with the likes of Marcus Mariota, Desmond Ridder and Taylor Heinicke under center.
No player should benefit more than Drake London, the wide receiver who Atlanta drafted No. 8 overall two years ago.
London hasn't stumbled out of the gate by any measure, but he's also failed to post the type of gaudy stat lines the Falcons were hoping for when they made him the first wideout off the board in a deep 2022 class. He failed to make any noticeable improvements upon a decent rookie showing—a season in which he caught 72 passes for 866 yards and four touchdowns—this past year, only reeling in 69 balls for 905 yards and two scores.
With Cousins in the mix, it would be surprising if London doesn't breech the 1,000-yard mark and find plenty of paydirt in 2024.
The accuracy Kirk Cousins brings to the table will lift London's ceiling significantly. Cousins had the highest percentage of on-target passes among quarterbacks with at least 200 throws last year. His 82.2 percent on-target percentage ranks vastly ahead of Ridder, who put a meager 69.3 percent of his throws on target and often struggled to place the ball properly for London, Kyle Pitts and the rest of Atlanta's supporting cast.
Cousins has had a positive impact on receivers in the past. Most notably, the 12-year veteran helped Justin Jefferson evolve into the league's top receiver during their joint tenure with the Minnesota Vikings.
Jefferson truly broke out during his third season in 2022, garnering a ridiculous 184 targets and converting them into a league-high 1,809 yards in addition to eight scores on 128 receptions. London has a chance to see a similarly massive production spike in his own Year 3 now that he's working with a high-end quarterback for the first time in his professional career.
If all goes to plan, London should finish up 2024 as a top-10 receiver with the potential to rate among the very best at the position.
WR George Pickens, Pittsburgh Steelers
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George Pickens was a trendy breakout candidate before the Pittsburgh Steelers offense utterly collapsed last year. Pickens still had a great campaign by most measures—he amassed 1,140 yards and scored five touchdowns on 63 receptions—but he could have been a clear-cut top-10 receiver if he had a competent quarterback under center and a better system to maximize his talents.
The Steelers finished a paltry No. 25 in total offense and No. 28 in scoring in 2023, the lowest of any team to make the playoffs. Those marks, as well as the personal stats of Pickens, should spike up significantly in 2024 thanks to the additions of both Arthur Smith and Russell Wilson.
Smith will be tasked with implementing a much more effective scheme than the one installed by previous offensive coordinator Matt Canada. While Smith didn't find much success as the Atlanta Falcons head coach over the past three seasons, his two-year run as the Tennessee Titans offensive coordinator culminated with the team ranking No. 3 in total offense and No. 4 in scoring during his final year on the job back in 2020.
Although that Tennessee offense was built around star running back Derrick Henry, it still allowed wideouts A.J. Brown and Corey Davis to flourish. Brown had a particularly great year, making the first Pro Bowl appearance of his career after catching 70 passes for 1,075 yards and 11 touchdowns.
Even if Smith once again emphasizes the run while serving as Pittsburgh's OC, Pickens should still be able to put up the big numbers necessary for him to earn a Pro Bowl nod of his own.
While Pickens' ceiling hinges on Wilson returning to form, the veteran passer should still have something left in the tank at the age of 35—just two years removed from the most recent of his nine total Pro Bowl appearances. Wilson will have plenty of support around him as he tries to bounce back, with Pickens standing out as the go-to target who should pile up plenty of looks and break out in a big way in 2024.
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EDGE Kayvon Thibodeaux, New York Giants
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Kayvon Thibodeaux has flashed greatness during his first two seasons with the New York Giants and began to truly take a leap last year when he finished with 11.5 sacks. He should only build on that promising showing in 2024 thanks to the show-stopping trade the G-Men executed for Brian Burns.
Burns landed with Big Blue at the start of the early tampering period, coming over from the Carolina Panthers in a sign-and-trade deal that saw New York ship over a pair of picks and assume the edge-rusher's new five-year, $150 million contract. The two-time Pro Bowler has accumulated at least 7.5 sacks in each of his five NFL campaigns and should continue to terrorize quarterbacks for his new employer.
No player stands to benefit more from Burns' arrival than Thibodeaux.
The constant attention that Burns' presence commands will allow the emerging pass-rusher to shine. Thibodeaux already shook off a relatively disappointing 4.5-sack rookie campaign to breech the double-digit sack mark as a sophomore. The No. 5 overall pick in 2022 will only get better as he refines his game in Year 3, a season in which he should face fewer double teams and less intense focus from opposing offensive linemen.
While Thibodeaux already worked alongside another skilled defensive lineman in Dexter Lawrence, he's yet to be paired with a truly dangerous edge. No other Giants defender recorded more than five sacks last year, and the team ranked in the bottom-five collectively in that category.
While the Giants still have plenty of issues to sort out—notably on offense, as the team has a massive hole at quarterback and lost centerpiece Saquon Barkley in free agency—they look primed to be a defensive force in 2024 largely thanks to their elite pass-rushing tandem.
Expect Burns to be a steady presence while Thibodeaux elevates his game to new heights and establishes himself as one of the NFL's very best sack artists.
RB Zamir White, Las Vegas Raiders
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After franchise-tagging Josh Jacobs last year and opting not to extend his contract this offseason, the Las Vegas Raiders will finally be moving on without their stalwart starting running back. The team hasn't made any splashy free-agent signings to fill the void left by Jacobs, a sign they are ready to entrust the backfield to Zamir White.
White filled in for Jacobs during the final four games of 2023 and made a lasting impression during those appearances. The second-year back capitalized on his first real chance to prove he can be an impact NFL player, racking up nearly 400 yards and scoring a touchdown on 84 carries in that span. He proved more than capable of shouldering a high workload too, notably turning 22 totes into 145 yards in Week 16 and closing out the campaign with 112 yards on 25 rushes.
That breakout came out of nowhere. Prior to logging his first start in Week 15—a game that the Raiders would set a franchise record in by scoring 63 points against the rival Los Angeles Chargers—White had tallied just 37 carries for 124 yards over his first 26 NFL appearances.
It remains to be seen if White will be able to adequately fill the three-down role Jacobs is vacating. Extrapolating his pass-catching output from his four starts over a full season only would result in 38 receptions for 255 yards, a noticeable drop-off from the 53 catches for 400 yards Jacobs posted during his All-Pro 2022 season and not even on par with the 37 catches for 296 yards he had prior to suffering a season-ending quad injury.
Regardless, White is well-positioned to assume the RB1 duties in Sin City. The six-foot, 215-pound back utilizes a hard-nosed, downhill, one-cut skill set to great effect, a style of running fits perfectly with the culture the team is seeking to establish under new head coach Antonio Pierce.
Even if the Raiders do eventually bring in a veteran or draft a rookie to pair with White, it shouldn't stop him from leading this backfield. His impressive audition for the role last season indicates a star in the making.
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