Updated Win-Loss Predictions for Every NBA Team
The 2023-24 NBA season is down to the stretch run.
The finish line still sits a hair off the horizon, but it's close enough that two teams—the Washington Wizards and San Antonio Spurs—have already been eliminated from playoff contention. Since there is still a chunk of the campaign left, though, franchises still have a little time to secure postseason spots and jostle for prime playoff positions.
What are we about to witness between now and the season finale on April 14? Probably a ton of unexpected stuff, honestly, but we can still venture a guess on what's about to go down.
In fact, that's the very reason we're here, as we're projecting the end-of-season records for all 30 clubs.
Atlanta Hawks: 37-45
1 of 30
Injuries keep stacking up for the Hawks—most recently, a season-ending ACL tear for Saddiq Bey—but so far they haven't thrown things off-course. In fact, Atlanta has managed a respectable 5-4 mark since losing Trae Young to a finger injury that forced him under the knife.
Things could slow down a bit, but they won't come to a screeching halt. The Hawks still have a former All-Star running the offense in Dejounte Murray, their frontcourt (when healthy) has enough talent to withstand Bey's absence, and Young should make it back before the curtain drops on this campaign.
They will probably be what they've essentially always been since forming the Murray-Young backcourt: an average team capable of defeating or being defeated by anyone. An 8-10 finish sounds about right, and as uninspiring as it is, it would still be enough to snag the East's final play-in tournament berth.
Boston Celtics: 63-19
2 of 30
The Celtics have enough talent to trump this number. In fact, finishing with 63 wins would mean they have slowed down (.706 winning percentage the rest of the way) rather significantly from their current clip (.785).
Yet, Boston could go in cruise control at any moment, because there is no viable threat to its place atop the Eastern Conference. The Shamrocks haven't technically clinched the No. 1 seed, but that will happen sooner than later, and once it does, they will have little to play for other than pride.
The Celtics, who don't have the deepest bench, will likely look to rest their regulars as much as they can down the stretch. Al Horford is 37, Jrue Holiday is 33 and Kristaps Porziņģis has one of the lengthier injury histories you'll find, making all three clear candidates for load management.
Brooklyn Nets: 33-49
3 of 30
The Nets have looked more competitive under interim head coach Kevin Ollie (5-6) than they were for his predecessor Jacque Vaughn (21-33), though that could have as much to do with the schedule as anything. Brooklyn's five wins under Ollie's direction have come against a Memphis Grizzlies team missing Ja Morant and Desmond Bane, the Trae Young-less Hawks (twice), the Philadelphia 76ers minus Joel Embiid and Tyrese Maxey and a Cleveland Cavaliers club down Donovan Mitchell and Evan Mobley.
If there's a saving grace in all of this, though, it's that the competition level doesn't dramatically increase going forward. Per Tankathon, the Nets have the seventh-softest remaining schedule.
But a favorable schedule only means so much for a team lacking high-end talent. Mikal Bridges is a really good player, and Cam Thomas is a really good scorer, but expecting greatness from either one is, at the very least, a long shot. A 7-10 finish, then, feels about right.
Charlotte Hornets: 19-63
4 of 30
Remember when the Hornets were busy rolling to a 5-2 stretch after the trade deadline? Those were different times, weren't they?
Charlotte has since reverted back to its bottom-feeding ways, dropping seven of its last eight games with an abysmal minus-12.3 net rating. And with no updates on the potential returns of LaMelo Ball and Mark Williams, it's tough to tell what could pull this team out of its latest tailspin.
Of course, beyond personal pride, there isn't a whole lot for the Hornets to play for down the stretch. If anything, they should be investing what they can into the development of anyone they deem even a potential keeper while putting their draft lottery odds into the best possible position.
Chicago Bulls: 40-42
5 of 30
The Bulls split their first 14 games since their latest dormant trade deadline, which might be a bummer for a lot of teams, but in Chicago, this could qualify as a success. After all, the rationale behind the inactivity was a desire to remain relevant in the play-in chase, and the Bulls have done that so far.
Even with Lonzo Ball (knee), Zach LaVine (ankle) and Patrick Williams (foot) sidelined for the season, the Bulls have enough to hang in the Eastern Conference's top 10. Coby White has leveled-up this season, Nikola Vučević has upped his output since the All-Star break and DeMar DeRozan continues to rank among the Association's top clutch closers.
Chicago probably won't string a slew of victories together, but it is equally unlikely to be derailed by a lengthy losing streak. Matching last season's record looms as a distinct possibility.
Cleveland Cavaliers: 51-31
6 of 30
From a developmental standpoint, the loss of Evan Mobley to a sprained ankle stings. For this specific stretch run, though, the Cavs can easily get by without their third-year big man, who remains a square-peg-in-a-round-whole fit alongside Jarrett Allen. In fact, Cleveland has fared 4.1 points better per 100 possessions without Mobley this season.
What the Cavaliers can ill afford, though, is Donovan Mitchell's knee trouble lingering much longer. The five-time All-Star has now missed too much time to be eligible for regular-season accolades, and Cleveland can only do so much to mask his absence. His plus-11.8 net differential is nearly two times larger than that of the Cavs' second-most impactful rotation regular (Dean Wade, plus-6.9).
Cleveland will want to play this cautious, though. As much is it might want to push the Milwaukee Bucks for the No. 2 seed, the far greater concern is having Mitchell at (or at least near) his best for the playoffs. If the Cavs slow-play his return, their win rate will slow down a bit from where it's been to this point.
Dallas Mavericks: 47-35
7 of 30
The Mavs are a tricky team to project, because they have one of the league's most dynamic talents in Luka Dončić, but they don't always capitalize on his brilliance. Case in point: While he was busy dazzling his way to a record-setting six consecutive 30-point triple-doubles, they still dropped half of those contests.
"It's all about winning to him," coach Jason Kidd told reporters. "Numbers, I don't know if they really mean anything to him today."
The good news for Dončić, then, is that this projection calls for the Mavericks winning more than they have so far. they're getting good returns on their deadline investments in P.J. Washington and Daniel Gafford, and health is finally on their side—although they're now waiting on a Dončić update following his hamstring injury Wednesday night.
Denver Nuggets: 56-26
8 of 30
Denver's first 10 games out of the All-Star break felt like one giant flex of its championship muscle. Nine resulted in wins—six of the double-digit variety—and the only one that didn't was an overtime loss to Kevin Durant and the Phoenix Suns. If you wanted to argue the title road still runs through the Mile High City, that might be all the evidence you need.
There are, of course, still some unanswered questions about this reserve unit, which ranks just 24th in efficiency, but perhaps the more important question is whether it even matters if this second unit is reliable. The starting lineup is so freakin' dominant—plus-13.7 net rating over nearly 800 minutes—that it can (and often does) bulldoze the opposition on its own.
Now, the Nuggets could theoretically prioritize some rest for those starters over prime playoff seeding, especially if the West's top three (or four if the Los Angeles Clippers heat back up) gets a little less congested. Even still, Denver wouldn't need to run itself ragged to hit this win total.
Detroit Pistons: 14-68
9 of 30
Despite looking historically bad earlier this season, this isn't an all-time atrocious team. The talent deficit between it and elite teams is wide enough that the Pistons will still get waxed from time to time, but Cade Cunningham, Jaden Ivey and Co. can grind out the occasional surprise victory, too.
Since the All-Star break, Detroit has been more bad than brutal. No one is writing home about a 3-7 record with a minus-4.6 net rating, but no one is wondering aloud whether this is the worst team they've ever watched, either.
The standings shouldn't matter to this squad, though. The single most important thing that could come out of this stretch run would be for Cunningham, the No. 1 pick in 2021, to take a sizable step toward stardom. So far, so good on that front, as his post-All-Star averages sit at 25.4 points on 48.1/43.8/91.3 shooting, 7.9 assists against 3.1 turnovers and 5.1 rebounds in 33 minutes per contest.
Golden State Warriors: 44-38
10 of 30
Plotting the Warriors' stretch-run path would be a whole lot easier with the knowledge of just how long Stephen Curry's ankle injury will keep him out. It sounds like he avoided anything major, but Dub Nation will hold its collective breath until its brightest star is back in action.
The problem, though, is that even having Curry at his net-shredding best hasn't often been enough for this team to gain traction. Golden State has gone just 33-26 in the games he's played, which doesn't inspire much hope that his bunch is about to rocket up the standings.
A just-above-.500 finish feels far more likely, though even that may be optimistic if this ankle issue gives Curry more trouble than expected. Jonathan Kuminga might be making a leap, but the 21-year-old isn't ready to lead a win-right-now offense just yet.
Houston Rockets: 36-46
11 of 30
The Rockets once appeared as early-season Cinderellas, but their glass slipper has long since shattered. After rolling out to an impressive 15-12 start, they've since gone just 15-23 with the league's 11th-worst net rating (minus-2.2).
Oh, and almost all of this happened before breakout big man Alperen Şengün suffered an injury so initially worrisome that it qualifies as good news that he suffered only "a severely sprained ankle and a bruised knee," per ESPN's Adrian Wojnarowski, who adds the skilled center would need "significant healing" to return this season.
Houston hasn't been wiped out of the play-in tournament race yet, but one more losing skid might effectively seal its fate. And if the Rockets have nothing to play for, their losses could pile up late.
Indiana Pacers: 47-35
12 of 30
Things haven't gone completely smooth since the Circle City arrival of Pascal Siakam, but the Pacers' play is perking up. They are a solid 10-7 with a respectable plus-2.7 net rating over their last 17 outings, and they've recently racked up double-digit drubbings of the Dallas Mavericks, Orlando Magic and Oklahoma City Thunder.
Beyond teams waiting for injured stars to return, the Pacers might have as much potential for internal improvement as anyone.
They've had Siakam for fewer than two months, meaning he isn't fully integrated into their system yet. And given the respective talents of him, Tyrese Haliburton and Myles Turner, you'd expect more than what they've shown together so far: a 9-9 record with a good-not-great plus-2.9 net rating across 385 minutes.
Los Angeles Clippers: 51-31
13 of 30
Just when it looked like the Clippers might be rounding into championship form, they've suddenly forgotten their keys to consistency. Between Dec. 1 and Feb. 5, they were as hot as anyone, posting a 26-5 record backed up by a best-in-the-West plus-8.1 net rating. In the month-plus since, though, they're just 7-8 with a minus-3.0 net rating (19th overall).
It's possible things could worsen, too, as Kawhi Leonard lasted just 12 minutes in their latest game before leaving the contest—and the arena entirely—with back spasms.
"Wasn't sure if he was going to go this morning," coach Tyronn Lue told reporters afterward. "But he came to shootaround, got some treatment, did what he had to do and tried to get on the court and played today. It just didn't loosen up for him."
L.A. had largely managed to duck the injury bug this season, but its luck ran out with Russell Westbrook's broken hand, and things could really get dicey if this back ailment lingers with Leonard. Look for the Clippers to prioritize keeping their roster as healthy as possible rather than putting the pedal to the floor in pursuit of a top-three seed.
Los Angeles Lakers: 46-36
14 of 30
The Lakers are coming closer to capturing a play-in tournament ticket, but if they're hoping to snag a top-six seed, they need to push even harder than they have. That might be more than this club can handle.
LeBron James and Anthony Davis form one of the Association's top tandems, but the former's age and the latter's injury history make it fair to wonder whether they'll hold up for the full 82-game marathon. L.A. doesn't have the supporting cast to withstand a lengthy absence for either one.
Memphis Grizzlies: 26-56
15 of 30
The Grizzlies haven't waved the white flag just yet, but this injury-ravaged roster is likely to run out of gas sooner than later. Their injury report is nearing novella length, and even worse, it features just about every recognizable name on this roster.
Credit coach Taylor Jenkins for keeping the competitive spirits up, but being on the wrong side of the talent gap so often will catch up with this club.
That's probably just as well, since this lottery-bound bunch should be aiming to get its draft lottery odds as high as it can.
Miami Heat: 46-36
16 of 30
Whether or not the Heat can summon their annual postseason surge, this is pretty clearly not a great regular-season squad. Their defense is adequate (ninth), their offense is not good (21st), and since their best players' best attributes don't involve scoring, they're searching for points more often than not.
That makes it difficult for this team to find its footing. Just when you think the light bulb is clicking, everything goes haywire. This team recently had a run of 11 wins in 14 games, but it immediately followed that with four consecutive losses, including a home defeat at the hands of the lowly Washington Wizards.
The Heat have a chance to push into the East's top six, but doing so would require a level of consistency they've yet to display. Our projections see them falling just short, as they'll suffer too many head-scratching stumbles to make the cut.
Milwaukee Bucks: 53-29
17 of 30
It's tempting to drop a shrug emoji into this section and simply move on. The Bucks are either impossible to figure out or just not as good as everyone thinks.
On the same day that Fox Sports ran a piece highlighting "Milwaukee's Breakthrough," the Bucks went out and suffered a 35-point loss to the Sacramento Kings. And this was basically the second time in March this same scenario has played out, as Milwaukee seemingly converted a lot of skeptics with a six-game winning streak only to immediately let the air out of the balloon with a loss to the Golden State Warriors by an identical 35-point margin.
This might be an aggressive prediction, then, as Milwaukee would need to go 11-5 down the stretch to prove it prescient. Still, the defensive progress made under coach Doc Rivers (12th in efficiency during his tenure, 19th before) and the offensive firepower of the Giannis Antetokounmpo-Damian Lillard duo should be enough to make it happen.
Minnesota Timberwolves: 54-28
18 of 30
The Timberwolves have so far avoided disaster in the wake of Karl-Anthony Towns' meniscus tear, splitting their first four games since the injury. However, this offense didn't have a ton punch as it was (18th in efficiency on the season), so subtracting a nightly source of 22.1 points, 3.0 assists and 2.2 three-pointers is a big deal.
Big enough for Minnesota to tumble down the standings? Probably not. But enough to doom the Wolves to a third-place finish in the three-team race for the West's No. 1 seed? Absolutely.
Anthony Edwards is already doing so much of the heavy lifting that it's unfair to ask even more of him, so where can the Wolves turn to replace Towns' production? That's probably a question this coaching staff will continue to ask itself the rest of the way, as Towns just went under the knife and won't be ready for a re-evaluation for another four weeks.
New Orleans Pelicans: 52-30
19 of 30
Consistency has eluded the Pelicans for much of this campaign, but there are reasons to believe the tide is finally turning. Since the start of February, New Orleans has gone 12-4 with a massive net rating bettered only by the Boston Celtics (plus-10.4).
Now, stretching this surge out for another month is far from a given, but if the Pelicans are going to defend like this (second in efficiency over this stretch), that possibility is most certainly in play.
Zion Williamson is dropping jaws on a near-nightly basis, Brandon Ingram has the offense humming, and the bench—the NBA's best in Jose Alvarado's opinion—keeps filling in all of the cracks. This is a really good team that can keep playing like a great one for at least another month.
New York Knicks: 48-34
20 of 30
The Knicks must have really ticked off the basketball gods given the wrath laid upon them by the injury bug. However, they are as healthy as they've been in some time, even while still awaiting the returns of Julius Randle (shoulder) and Mitchell Robinson (ankle).
While drawing the Joel Embiid-less Philadelphia 76ers surely didn't hurt, OG Anunoby looked no worse for the wear upon Tuesday's return from a month-plus absence for elbow surgery. The 6'7" swingman posted an efficient 14 points on 6-off-11 shooting, and the Knicks won his 29 minutes by 28 points.
"Our savior is back," Josh Hart told reporters afterward. "... It's great to have him out there. He helps this team go."
If the Knicks can get to full strength by season's end, they can really go on a tear. We'll make a more conservative projection that they finish with 10 wins over their remaining 17 games.
Oklahoma City Thunder: 57-25
21 of 30
The Thunder look unbeatable a lot of the time. Only the Boston Celtics have more than Oklahoma City's 26 double-digit triumphs.
Every so often, though, this team just doesn't have it. The Thunder have only lost three games since the All-Star break, but all three of those games were decided by double digits.
Those are, perhaps, small reminders of just how young and inexperienced this team really is, but this team's massive win total is a better reflection of just how much talent it has. Look for talent to trump the rest down the stretch, as the Thunder do just enough to claim the West's top seed.
Orlando Magic: 48-34
22 of 30
Between Orlando's fourth-ranked defense and the club's seemingly insatiable energy, the Magic can will their way to a lot of wins. And when that's not enough, they can often rely on rising star Paolo Banchero to get them over the proverbial hump.
Their 23rd-ranked offense doesn't leave much margin for error, though. This club is severely understaffed with shooters, and none of their supporting pieces has emerged as a consistent third option behind Banchero and Franz Wagner. When things go bad, they can go downright awful, like when they dropped two games over the weekend while averaging just 85.5 points on 35.9/24.2/73.5 shooting.
This defense will always give this group a chance, though, and their closing schedule is among the most favorable in the Association. There may be some ugly moments along the way, but Orlando will emerge with a top-six seed.
Philadelphia 76ers: 44-38
23 of 30
On Jan. 30, the 76ers lost reigning MVP Joel Embiid to a meniscus injury in his left knee. Since then, they've looked like...well, a team that lost the reigning MVP.
Philly has gone just 7-12 since while posting the league's fourth-worst net rating of this stretch (minus-7.4). It's perhaps generous, then, to project that this team posts a 7-10 record from here.
Yet the Sixers aren't devoid of talent without Embiid—Tyrese Maxey waves hello—and there's still a chance the big fella makes it back before the curtains fall.
Phoenix Suns: 49-33
24 of 30
It's been an up-and-down season for the Suns so far, but with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker and Bradley Beal finally reunited, this team has a real shot of ending this campaign on a high note.
Granted, you can't assume a clean bill of health with this trio, but you can still acknowledge what that could mean if it happens. When the three stars have shared the floor this season, Phoenix has gone 15-9 (a 51-win pace) with a plus-10.9 net rating.
Calling for an 11-6 finish (a 53-win pace) hardly feels outlandish. The Suns need to keep their stars upright for this to come to fruition, but if they do, they could even outperform this projection.
Portland Trail Blazers: 25-57
25 of 30
The Blazers spent their past two stretch runs bottoming out to better their draft position, but they don't need to take the plunge this time around. The lottery-protected pick they owe the Chicago Bulls is clearly going nowhere, and this draft class lacks the high-end talent that typically motivates cellar-dwellers to tank.
Portland isn't about to embark on a big winning streak or anything, but the Blazers can keep things relatively competitive.
Jerami Grant and Anfernee Simons can take over a game with their scoring, and the return of Scoot Henderson adds another ignitable player to the mix. If Malcolm Brogdon ever comes back from his elbow ailment—he's making progress with his rehab—that would add another element to this offense.
Sacramento Kings: 48-34
26 of 30
When the Kings made their overdue return to the playoffs last season, one thing became certain: Their defense had to improve. And technically it has, as they've made a modest jump from 24th to 20th in efficiency.
The problem is Sacramento's formerly fire-breathing offense has proved far less flammable this time around. Last season, the Kings had the league's most efficient offense. Now, they've fallen to a far less impressive 11th in the category.
It all adds up to a net loss of 1.7 points per 100 possessions, but Sacramento can live with that. The defensive improvement, as subtle as it may be, still matters when this offense has the capacity to be great. De'Aaron Fox has found a way to reach yet another gear, and Domantas Sabonis may fill a stat line better than anyone not named Nikola Jokić or Luka Dončić.
San Antonio Spurs: 20-62
27 of 30
For the Spurs to reach 20 wins, they'd need this final month to produce about half as many wins (six) as the first four-plus months yielded (14).
Clearly, we're comfortable taking that bet, and there is a 7'4" reason why. Victor Wembanyama has lived up to the hype as a generational prospect while posting numbers we almost never see—from a first-year player or otherwise. If the season ended today, San Antonio's freshman phenom would be only the seventh player ever to average 20 points, 10 rebounds, three assists and three blocks.
The Spurs have a legitimate game-changer on their roster, and few teams sitting this low in the standings can make a similar claim. If San Antonio lets him spread his wings—as the lone big on the floor and alongside an actual point guard—he could steer this squad to a 6-12 finish.
Toronto Raptors: 30-52
28 of 30
If offered a mulligan for the trade deadline, think Toronto might want to do things differently? Sure, the Raptors made a few future-focused trades while shipping out OG Anunoby and Pascal Siakam, but they had more win-now talent to shop around. Yet they held onto it—and actually added to the collection with Kelly Olynyk—and it's still hard to see why.
Toronto was 18-33 when the trade buzzer sounded, meaning even a play-in tournament invitation may have been wishful thinking. Adding insult to...well, insult, the Raptors have only dropped further down the standings since with a 5-9 post-deadline record and the fifth-worst net rating of this stretch (minus-6.6).
Ideally, they'd at least be using the stretch run to further Scottie Barnes' development, but he's stuck on the sideline with a broken hand. There probably won't be many positives the rest of the way, but Toronto has too much talent to totally collapse.
Utah Jazz: 33-49
29 of 30
Had the Jazz held onto their core at the deadline, they might be holding a play-in tournament ticket right now. Instead, their deadline wheeling and dealing—which sent out three rotation players without bringing back a single replacement—has them headed toward another lottery appearance.
Big-picture, that's probably the right play. Utah will need to win sooner than later to capitalize on Lauri Markkanen's prime, but the talent base must expand for the Jazz to make any kind of substantial playoff push. This draft class lacks the blue-chip prospects worth tanking for, but it's still an avenue to cheap, young talent.
The Jazz could theoretically pull the plug on some of their veterans, particularly if it looks like they're at risk of coughing up their top-10-protected pick, but they don't otherwise have a major incentive to sit their regulars.
Washington Wizards: 14-68
30 of 30
The Wizards have won back-to-back games twice this season. They've also had five losing streaks spanning at last six games, including a recent 16-game skid that stretched into the early part of March.
This team is bad. Only the Charlotte Hornets have managed a worse net rating than Washington's anemic minus-8.9 mark.
Is it optimistic to suggest Washington has three more wins left on the schedule? Quite possibly, yes. Then again, there's always a chance someone like Kyle Kuzma, Jordan Poole or Deni Avdija gets hot, just like there's always a chance some opponent goes absolutely frigid.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference and NBA.com and current through games played on Tuesday.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on X, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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