Bears Must Remain Patient with Justin Fields' Market amid Latest NFL Trade Rumors

Though the Chicago Bears haven't publicly committed to drafting USC quarterback Caleb Williams with the No. 1 overall pick, things appear to be barrelling toward that decision. The question no longer appears to be if Chicago will draft Williams but what it will do with incumbent starter Justin Fields.

For the 2021 11th overall pick, a trade seems inevitable.

"Justin's going to be gone," one NFL scout said, per The Athletic's Adam Jahns and Kevin Fishbain. "That writing is on the wall."

The problem for general manager Ryan Poles and the Bears is that this is a terrible offseason in which to be dangling a QB trade chip. The free-agent market is headlined by Kirk Cousins, and the draft has several intriguing prospects.

Assuming Williams is off the board at No. 1, teams can still target the likes of North Carolina's Drake Maye, LSU's Jayden Daniels, Michigan's J.J. McCarthy and Oregon's Bo Nix.

What does all of that mean for the trade market? It means that young quarterbacks with upside simply aren't going to bring the premium that they might in other offseason. According to ESPN's Adam Schefter, the New England Patriots have agreed to trade Mac Jones to the Jacksonville Jaguars for a mere sixth-round pick.

While Jones hasn't flashed the physical upside that Fields has, he was a Pro Bowler as a rookie and was selected just four spots behind Fields in the 2021 draft.

Chicago was hoping to get a second-round pick in return for Fields, but according to ESPN's Dan Graziano, that isn't likely to happen:

"I believe they'll trade Justin Fields. But they did not find the market they were hoping to find for Fields, so as of now, they're waiting to see what happens with Cousins, Baker Mayfield and maybe some others, and what kind of market emerges once those situations sort themselves out."

Per Graziano, teams don't believe that Fields is a safer QB option than impending free agents Sam Darnold and Drew Lock—quarterbacks who aren't expected to be in heavy demand this week.

None of this means, however, that Poles and the Bears should abandon their plans to draft Williams or rush to take an underwhelming deal for Fields. Instead, Chicago must be patient and allow the 25-year-old's market to develop.

The reality is that once the 2024 quarterback carousel is finished spinning, at least one team is likely to be left without a signal-caller. That could reinvigorate Fields' market, even if it doesn't happen until the draft's opening night is over.

This is precisely how things unfolded for the Arizona Cardinals back in 2019. Arizona had used the 10th pick on quarterback Josh Rosen the previous season, then took Kyler Murray No. 1 overall in 2019. On Day 2 of the draft, Arizona flipped Rosen to the QB-needy Miami Dolphins for second- and fifth-round picks.

Granted, the 2019 QB class wasn't as impressive as this year's group—and Rosen was only a year into his rookie deal instead of three—but the precedent exists. A second-round pick still might not be overly realistic, but Chicago might net a third-rounder from a QB-needy team that whiffs in both free agency and Round 1 of the draft.

Dumping Fields now would likely bring far less, and the risk of waiting through April is minimal. In a worst-case scenario, the Bears won't find a taker for Fields before the draft's conclusion. They would still have a good amount of draft capital, though, and would have Fields at a reasonable cap hit of $6 million.

And it's not as if Fields will be completely untradeable after April. The San Francisco 49ers got a fourth-round pick for Trey Lance last August, and Fields has shown far more potential than Lance has.

A training camp injury to a starting quarterback could also raise Fields' value in the late-offseason trade market.

The risks of being patient with e Fields trade don't outweigh the potential rewards, especially if there isn't much of a market for him right now. It will only take one interested team to dramatically shift the landscape, and the Bears must be willing to wait and allow that team to emerge.