Every Legit NBA Contender's Fatal Flaw
The finish line for the 2023-24 NBA season won't arrive until mid-April, but enough of this campaign has played out to construct the league's hierarchy.
It's difficult for contenders or pretenders to fake the part over four-plus months, so we all should feel confident in knowing who's actually in the title race and who's chasing false hopes of getting there.
For this exercise, we're using a general—and perhaps generous—definition for legitimate contenders. To be considered, teams must hold top-10 rankings in both winning percentage and net rating. At the time of writing, that puts the cutoffs at a .587 win rate (a number cleared by 44 of the past 45 champions) and a plus-3.2 net rating.
It also limits the field to eight teams, meaning there will be some unhappy fanbases (likely including the Phoenix Suns faithful). But if clubs haven't established themselves in the upper third of those metrics, they only have themselves to blame. There may be other teams that can win the title, but they haven't done enough for anyone to assume they will.
With our parameters in place, let's point out the potentially fatal flaw for the eight franchises in our championship chase.
Boston Celtics: Late-Game Execution
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On the surface, there isn't a major reason to worry about the Celtics' crunch-time execution. They've handled most of their ventures into clutch situations—final five minutes, scoring margin of five points or fewer—just fine. In fact, they have this season's sixth-best net rating in the clutch.
Still, those who have tracked this team over the years know that when the game gets tight, this group often gets even tighter. Shots stop falling, the ball stops moving and head-scratching blunders start happening on both ends.
Even this season, the Shamrocks have seen their share of late-game hiccups, especially once the pressure really gets ramped up:
The Celtics have more counter-punches late in games than they did before thanks to the offseason additions of Kristaps Porziņģis and Jrue Holiday. Still, the late-game offense will largely run through Jayson Tatum and Jaylen Brown, and the star wings will have to deliver the crunch-time heroics that have so often eluded them in past playoff trips.
Even this season, the Jays have been shaky in big spots. Tatum, who leads the Celtics in clutch field-goal attempts by a wide margin, is shooting only 31.9 percent on those shots. And while Brown is canning half of his clutch looks, he's also only 3-of-12 from distance and has more turnovers (seven) than assists (six).
If Boston can't bulldoze its playoff opponents, it will need to prove it can make enough plays to grind out nail-biting wins. The jury is still out on whether this team—and, more specifically, these stars—can deliver.
Cleveland Cavaliers: The Non-Shooting Frontcourt
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The Cavaliers enjoyed their playoff breakout last season, and this campaign was supposed to serve as their springboard to contention. In a lot of ways, it has. Cleveland hasn't posted a winning percentage this high (.645) since its 205-16 championship run, and its plus-4.6 net rating is the fifth-best mark in the NBA.
Still, the same primary factor behind last season's playoff collapse (a five-game defeat in the opening round) remains the biggest worry with this group: Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen, two of the four best players on the roster, struggle to fit alongside one another.
Neither provides even a smattering of spacing. Mobley has made 11 threes on the season and is shooting 31.4 percent from deep. Allen has fired up only five long-range looks and has come up empty on each one. Opposing defenses can completely ignore them away from the basket, leaving the Cavs too often playing 4-on-5 basketball, particularly against savvy playoff defenses.
When both bigs are on the floor together, the Cavs have a 109.1 offensive rating. Only three teams—all with winning percentages south of .350—are less efficient.
The worries with this pairing extend beyond the like of spacing, like Mobley's latest trip to the injury report (sprained ankle) or the fact these two weren't up to the physicality test during their first postseason venture. But if the Cavs can't field a functioning offense with these two together, then nothing else will matter.
Denver Nuggets: Lack of Reliable Depth
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Yes, there's a low-hanging-fruit element to this selection since it's been a talking point ever since the Nuggets lost Bruce Brown and Jeff Green in free agency last summer. Yet there are two big reasons why it remains the club's top concern.
First, it's almost impossible to find flaws within the starting five, the same lineup that just led the Nuggets to their first NBA championship. The quintet of Jamal Murray, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope, Michael Porter Jr., Aaron Gordon and Nikola Jokić essentially toys with opponents at this point. Over their league-leading 759 minutes together, they've trounced opposing teams by 13.6 points per 100 possessions.
Second, Denver's reserves haven't done enough to assuage this worry. The Nuggets' second-teamers have posted a collective minus-2.7 net rating. Only five bench units have fared worse, and none of those teams—except maybe the Toronto Raptors—are even thinking about the play-in tournament, let alone postseason success.
Peyton Watson is a ferocious defender, but teams might be comfortable leaving the 46.8/32.0/67.9 shooter completely unattended on offense. Christian Braun is a helpful hustler, but there isn't much shooting or shot-creation in his game. Reggie Jackson is volatile, and if his recent play is any indication (5.1 points on 32.1 percent shooting since the All-Star break), he could struggle to get anything going.
The Nuggets can at least skirt around any questions at their backup center by utilizing Gordon in that spot, but they'll need their backcourt and wing reserves to fill not-insignificant roles. If they keep coming up in the red when the bench gets some burn, that will make the challenge of defending their throne exponentially more difficult.
Los Angeles Clippers: Defensive Limitations
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With Kawhi Leonard and Paul George finally staying healthy this season—knocking on all wood within arms' reach—one might think the Clippers would be defensive juggernauts. In a league where seemingly everyone is on the hunt for big-wing stoppers with some offensive juice, L.A. happens to have two of the best.
And yet, the Clippers' defense isn't dominant; it's only decent. Despite having the two lockdown artists, the Clippers find themselves a forgettable 13th in defensive efficiency.
What's behind the disappointment? Quite a few things, actually.
What the Clippers may lack more than anything is versatility. They don't have a slew of speedsters to chase around fleet-of-foot guards, and they don't have much interior protection, either. Only nine teams allow opponents to shoot a higher percentage inside the restricted area (67.4), and 15 average more blocks (5.0).
Ivica Zubac can be exploited in space, and things aren't any different when Daniel Theis or Mason Plumlee hit the floor. The disappearance of P.J. Tucker, combined with the frontcourt depth lost in the James Harden blockbuster, have made it trickier to field small-ball lineups.
Leonard can handle spot minutes at the 5, but given his lengthy injury history, the Clippers should be cautious about upping the physical demands on him.
Milwaukee Bucks: Defensive Breakdowns
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After trudging through the early part of new head coach Doc Rivers' tenure, the Bucks finally seemed to hit their stride with six consecutive wins coming out of the All-Star break. More importantly, their much-maligned defense fueled a lot of that success, as they posted the Association's best defensive rating over that stretch.
"It's starting to become second nature," Bucks guard Malik Beasley told reporters. "When you have a good defensive team like that, that's what happens."
What if this isn't a good defensive team, though?
The Bucks have strong individual defenders like Giannis Antetokounmpo, Brook Lopez and newcomer Patrick Beverley, but they have a fair share of sieves, too. That includes Beasley and Damian Lillard, aka the starting backcourt.
So, what also happens are things like Milwaukee's seventh game out of the All-Star break, when it allowed 125 points on 56 percent shooting to a Golden State Warriors team that made only four free throws in the win.
That game aside, the Bucks have defended better of late, but they're still only 15th in defensive efficiency. And they're still allowing an alarming number of transition opportunities, as they rank 27th in opponent transition frequency and 29th in opponent transition frequency off of live rebounds.
Milwaukee, which has plummeted to 20th in offensive efficiency since Rivers took over, lacks the firepower to compensate for a leaky defense (especially with Khris Middleton again sidelined). If they can't consistently keep opposing offenses in check, they'll be in big trouble.
Minnesota Timberwolves: Turnover Trouble
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The Timberwolves are attempting to figure this whole life-at-the-top thing out on the fly. Their .698 winning percentage isn't merely miles above external expectations—oddsmakers set their over/under at 44.5 wins, a .543 clip—it's also their second-best mark in franchise history.
While they have clearly learned a lot of what it takes to win at this level, one critical lesson remains a work in progress: valuing each and every possession.
More than one of every seven of their offensive possessions ends with a giveaway. Their 14.7 turnover percentage is the seventh-worst mark in the league. The six teams behind them have a combined record of just 151-224.
Good teams seldom get away with coughing up this many turnovers, and the few that do often have such an explosive offense that they'll pile up enough points to offset the miscues (think the Golden State Warriors at the height of their dynasty). Meanwhile, Minnesota sits just 18th in offensive efficiency, mostly because of these mistakes.
The Wolves' league-leading defense at least helps minimize the damage done by these blunders to some extent, but they're still squandering too many possessions and gifting some favorable ones to their opponents. If they can ever harness their ball control, their championship dream could become a reality.
New Orleans Pelicans: Fourth-Quarter Failures
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The Pelicans might be the most surprising team to see here, since they probably aren't the first team that comes to mind when thinking of the championship race. Using our definition for a contender, though, they've earned their place in this discussion with the league's eighth-highest win percentage (.597) and fourth-best efficiency (plus-5.4).
For all the good this group has done, though, New Orleans is the ultimate front-runner. Only the juggernaut Celtics are more effective over the first 24 minutes than the Pelicans, who sport a dominant plus-11.1 net rating in the first half.
However, as time ticks down on the game clock, New Orleans' effectiveness dips right along with it. In the fourth quarter, the Pelicans drop to 24th in efficiency. Narrow the focus to clutch situations, and the Pels fall even further into 28th place.
It's no wonder why this is the Association's only team to find itself without a single fourth-quarter comeback (0-15). If the Pels are doing anything other than leading at intermission, they're probably losing, as they've gone just 3-15 when tied or trailing at halftime.
The Pelicans are talented, but not to the point that they can expect to just run away from their playoff opponents. They have to find ways of carrying over their early success into the late stages of the game.
Oklahoma City Thunder: Rebounding Woes
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For a team as young as the Thunder, there are surprisingly few flaws with this group. They are the only team other than the Celtics holding top-five efficiency ranks on both offense (third) and defense (fifth).
They are good-to-great in almost everything they do, but rebounding is the one enormous exception to that rule. They are awful on the glass in every respect: 28th in offensive rebounding percentage, 29th in defensive rebounding percentage and 29th in total rebounding percentage.
The Thunder could have addressed this at the trade deadline and didn't, which suggests they aren't super worried about it. They have decided it's more important to maximize spacing, pace and ball movement than it is to run out a traditional-sized center—say, one who weighs a pinch more than 7'1", 195-pound center Chet Holmgren—who would give them a better presence on the boards.
"A lot of nights, we lose the rebounding battle," Thunder head coach Mark Daigneault told reporters recently. "And as long as the benefit continues to outweigh the cost, we're going to continue to accept the trade-offs. We're not going to be a perfect team."
Daigneault is right that it's better for this team to play to its identity than switch up its style in search of more size, but ideally, it wouldn't have to make such a choice. Other teams have size and can compete on the glass without sacrificing spacing or stunting their ball movement.
Even if the Thunder are willing to live with this issue, that doesn't make it any less concerning. Failing to secure rebounds means not being able to extend offensive possessions or close out defensive trips. Those costs are real, and they could add up to a fatal flaw in the wrong playoff matchup.
Statistics courtesy of Basketball Reference, Cleaning the Glass and NBA.com and current through games played on Thursday.
Zach Buckley covers the NBA for Bleacher Report. Follow him on X, @ZachBuckleyNBA.
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