5 NFL Teams That Could Shockingly Trade into the Top 10 for a Quarterback
As our attention shifts from the NFL Scouting Combine to free agency, we're going to hear more rumblings about the quarterback carousel, which will have an impact on the 2024 draft.
Top quarterbacks rarely reach free agency, though teams may be able to find a couple of surefire starters in Kirk Cousins and Baker Mayfield.
Nonetheless, the league's demand for top-tier starting quarterbacks exceeds the supply. As a result, multiple teams may look to make a splash in the draft via trade to land a franchise signal-caller.
NFL insiders have linked teams within or slightly outside the top 10 like the Atlanta Falcons, Minnesota Vikings, Denver Broncos and Las Vegas Raiders to quarterbacks who could be top-five picks. Yet we may see a surprise or two before or on draft day.
A handful of teams with a probable starter or a veteran potentially in place could pull off a blockbuster trade for a spot in the top 10 to take a quarterback. We'll discuss which clubs may consider a move and why it makes sense in each scenario.
Los Angeles Rams
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As of Monday, the Los Angeles Rams have $40-plus million in cap space. They could fill some of their roster voids in free agency.
If general manager Les Snead adds a couple of offensive linemen and defensive backs in free agency, he could think about the long-term future of his quarterback room during the draft.
One can easily argue that Matthew Stafford is still one of the league's top 10 quarterbacks, but he just turned 36 years old in February and has a recent injury history.
Keep in mind that the Rams selected quarterback Stetson Bennett in the fourth round of the 2023 draft. During this past campaign, the Rams excused Bennett for undisclosed personal reasons, and he's yet to rejoin the club. Head coach Sean McVay hasn't provided much clarity on the signal-caller's potential return.
The Rams could take an aggressive approach to find Stafford's potential successor. Perhaps they call the Chicago Bears (No. 9 overall pick) or the New York Jets (No. 10 overall pick) to move up from the 19th spot for J.J. McCarthy, who played in a pro-style system with an effective ground attack.
In Los Angeles, McCarthy would have a quality wide receiver duo with Cooper Kupp and Puka Nacua along with a strong run game that features Kyren Williams.
McCarthy didn't have to carry Michigan's offense, so skeptics may question how much he can handle on the NFL level. Nonetheless, Los Angeles wouldn't have to rush him onto the field with Stafford under contract through the 2026 term.
The Rams can develop McCarthy with patience while Stafford ages into the twilight of his career.
New Orleans Saints
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Last offseason, the New Orleans Saints signed quarterback Derek Carr to a four-year, $150 million contract, which includes a no-trade clause. After the 2024 season, he has two non-guaranteed years on his deal.
Based on Carr's passing numbers, he had a decent first year in New Orleans, throwing for 3,878 yards, 25 touchdowns and eight interceptions with a 68.4 percent completion rate. Carr also played through injuries and didn't miss a game.
However, Carr struggled in big moments against playoff-caliber teams.
For instance, his box-score passing numbers against the Los Angeles Rams (319 yards, three touchdowns and one interception) don't look as good when you go back and watch the game. In that Week 16 contest, he racked up most of his production after the halfway point of the fourth quarter, down 30-7.
For the time being, the Saints can win games with Carr, but he isn't quite a franchise quarterback. It doesn't help that his red-zone woes followed him from Las Vegas to New Orleans.
In all likelihood, Carr will get another opportunity to take the Saints to the playoffs, but New Orleans shouldn't rule out a move into a top-10 spot for a quarterback with more potential.
The Saints have the 14th overall pick, so they wouldn't have to make a massive leap to get the third- or fourth-best signal-caller in the draft.
New Orleans can sit its rookie signal-caller for the 2024 campaign and then reassess its thoughts on Carr next offseason. In 2025, the club can opt to find a trade partner that appeals to Carr or cut him in a transition to an upstart signal-caller.
Also, note that quarterback Jameis Winston is set to test free agency, and Jake Haener had a rough rookie campaign, serving a six-game suspension for a performance-enhancing drug violation.
Pittsburgh Steelers
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Days after the Pittsburgh Steelers' playoff loss to the Buffalo Bills, head coach Mike Tomlin talked about adding quarterback competition for third-year pro Kenny Pickett.
"There will be competition there. There's always competition in this thing. We don't anoint anyone. I'm appreciative of his efforts and where he is and excited about continuing to work with him. But certainly, he will be challenged from a competition perspective. Moving forward, competition brings the best out in all of us."
Clearly, Tomlin plans to challenge Pickett in the offseason. With him under center, Pittsburgh's offense struggled for most of 12 games, even after the team fired play-caller Matt Canada.
Back in December, Pickett underwent ankle surgery, and Mitchell Trubisky took over the huddle in two underwhelming starts. Pittsburgh had its most productive offensive outings (in terms of scoring) with third-string quarterback Mason Rudolph.
Rudolph's late-season performances may help him garner interest from teams in need of a bridge-gap quarterback, which may push the Steelers' search for Pickett's competitor in another direction.
Pittsburgh would have to move up 10 or more spots for a top-10 slot, though Pickett hasn't done enough for the Steelers to rule out drastic measures for an upgrade at his position.
General manager Omar Khan said he has "full faith" in Pickett, but if a high-end prospect slips to the back end of the top 10, the Steelers may see that signal-caller as someone who can beat out Pickett for the starting job.
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Seattle Seahawks
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In 2022, the Seattle Seahawks moved on from quarterback Russell Wilson, and Geno Smith beat out Drew Lock for the starting job and took full advantage of an opportunity to reinvent himself after short stints as a backup with previous teams.
Smith helped lead the Seahawks to the playoffs. On top of that, he won 2022 Comeback Player of the Year, throwing for 4,282 yards, 30 touchdowns and 11 interceptions with a league-leading 69.8 percent completion rate, but his numbers dipped significantly last season.
In 2023, with mostly the same supporting offensive cast and the addition of first-round wideout Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Smith threw for 3,624 yards, 20 touchdowns and nine interceptions with a 64.7 percent completion rate.
Though the Seahawks won nine games in back-to-back campaigns with Smith under center, he lost some of his luster from the 2022 term.
Secondly, Smith rose through the ranks under former Seahawks head coach Pete Carroll, who's transitioned to a front-office role. New lead skipper Mike MacDonald hired offensive coordinator Ryan Grubb, and they may have a new vision for the offense.
At the combine, general manager John Schneider seemed to give himself some wiggle room in case the team pivots away from Smith.
"Yeah, I mean, I would think—yes, he's the starter until he's not," Schneider said about Smith to reporters.
So, yes, for now, Smith is the Seahawks' starting signal-caller, but what if MacDonald and Grubb become fond of a couple of quarterback prospects?
As the assistant head coach, offensive coordinator and quarterbacks coach at Washington, Grubb may see a future starter in Michael Penix Jr., though the Seahawks probably won't have to trade up for him—but who knows? Penix may see his draft stock rise with promising medical evaluations at the combine.
If not Penix, Schneider could take a swing at one of the top quarterback prospects if one of them slips outside of the top five.
Last year, the Seahawks selected cornerback Devon Witherspoon with the fifth overall pick following Smith's best season. Because of Smith's recent inconsistencies, Seattle could be proactive in its search for a franchise signal-caller with a move from the 16th spot into the top 10.
Tampa Bay Buccaneers
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During the combine broadcast, NFL Network's Daniel Jeremiah discussed a rumor going around that Baker Mayfield might not be back with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers next season.
"We've all assumed that Baker [Mayfield] just goes right back to Tampa," Jeremiah said. "Don't sleep on the New England Patriots. If the New England Patriots are in the Baker business, then the No. 3 pick is up for sale."
Though NFL Network's James Palmer said Mayfield likely re-signs with the Buccaneers, he mentioned the Atlanta Falcons as a "dark horse" to sign him if he goes elsewhere.
In 2023, Mayfield put together his first Pro Bowl campaign, throwing for 4,044 yards, 28 touchdowns and 10 interceptions with a 64.3 percent completion rate, all career-best numbers excluding the turnovers. With his passing performances, he helped lead the Buccaneers to another NFC South title and a playoff win.
According to Rick Stroud of the Tampa Bay Times, the Buccaneers have already started talks with Mayfield about an extension, but he may compare Tampa Bay's offer with other proposals on the open market.
If so, the Buccaneers should have plans B and C in place just in case they lose their starter to an aggressive, quarterback-needy team.
Among the five teams on this list, Tampa Bay would have to make the biggest jump for a top-10 pick, moving from the 26th spot, but hey, that didn't stop the Kansas City Chiefs from getting their franchise quarterback in 2017. They moved from 27th to 10th for Patrick Mahomes after a 2016 divisional-round loss.
Moreover, the Buccaneers may not have many quality options in free agency, and Kyle Trask has thrown just 10 regular-season passes in three years.
New Buccaneers offensive coordinator Liam Coen, who's bounced between college and the pros since 2020, may be in favor of going with a rookie quarterback if the team loses Mayfield in free agency.
Maurice Moton covers the NFL for Bleacher Report. You can follow him on Twitter @MoeMoton.
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