2024 Men's NCAA Tournament: Latest Stock Watch for Bubble Teams

Life on the men's NCAA tournament bubble is nerve-wracking, and that level of discomfort only heightens late in the regular season.

In theory, no victory or setback today, tomorrow or next week is more meaningful than what happened in November or December. However, it certainly doesn't feel that way after a big upset or bad loss.

Every result is being scrutinized intensely as the calendar flips from February to March, and we've picked out seven programs that are trending in opposite directions.

Stock up doesn't mean a program is a March Madness lock, nor is stock down a season-ruining label. However, time is running short to build a deserving Big Dance resume.

Down: Butler Bulldogs

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Jahmyl Telfort

At the beginning of the month, Butler snatched a massive upset on the road at Creighton. Following an understandable loss against UConn, the Bulldogs took down Providence, too.

Holding an 16-8 record, they sat in a decent spot. Butler would be NCAA tourney-bound so long as it avoided a disaster.

About that.

Butler has dropped four straight games, any of which would've been a valuable Quadrant 1 victory. While the Bulldogs don't have any bad losses, they're now at 12 for the season. Given the record for losses by an at-large team is 15, their margin for error is slim.

While closing the regular season 3-0 isn't necessarily a requirement, Butler can hardly afford a loss to St. John's, DePaul or Xavier.

Up: James Madison Dukes

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Terrence Edwards Jr.

"Just win games" is an oversimplification when it comes to non-high-major programs on the bubble. History has showed that doesn't always work out, as 2012 Drexel or 2016 Monmouth can vouch.

In other words, James Madison likely needs a Sun Belt tournament title to make the March Madness field. Still, the Dukes can demand a place in the at-large discussion if they continue a torrid run.

They are currently 26-3 with a victory over Michigan State, and two of JMU's three losses came against Sun Belt front-runner Appalachian State. Right now, this is a resume in contention for an at-large bid.

JMU must avoid losing at Georgia State or Coastal Carolina down the stretch, no question. Anything less than reaching the conference tourney championship would be crushing, too.

But the Dukes are in the running.

Down: Texas A&M Aggies

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Wade Taylor IV

Meanwhile, Texas A&M is slipping.

Early in February, the Aggies edged past Florida, smacked Missouri and emphatically upset Tennessee. They were 15-8 with a reasonably favorable slate to close the regular season, or so it seemed.

However, Texas A&M immediately fell to Vanderbilt in a horrid, borderline Quadrant 4 loss. Since then, the Aggies have dropped games to Alabama by 25 points, Arkansas—a fourth loss to a Quadrant 3 team—and Tennessee by 35 points.

Thanks to a 6-6 mark opposite Q1 teams, 12-loss A&M is hanging around the brink of the bubble. Plus, an early victory over Iowa State is starting to look really good on the resume.

Buzz Williams' team needs to turn it around in a hurry, though.

Neutral: Wake Forest Demon Deacons

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Hunter Sallis

Wake Forest is a prime example of how a single result can dramatically improve the perception of a tournament resume.

In two ways.

Led by star guard Hunter Sallis, the Demon Deacons upset Duke this past Saturday. The court-storming controversy notwithstanding, it was a massive result for a program in need of a marquee win.

Before that victory, Wake had a lone Quadrant 1 win (Florida) with a modest set of Quadrant 2 results. But then, the Deacs were 18-9 and firmly on the correct side of the bubble.

You know, until an awful loss at Notre Dame on Tuesday night. The surprising result put Wake Forest back in the danger zone.

Down: Utah Utes

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Branden Carlson

Similar to Butler and Texas A&M, the number of losses has become a volume problem for Utah.

The Utes boast Quadrant 1 victories over BYU, Saint Mary's and Wake Forest. Wins over Colorado and Washington State feasibly could jump from a Q2 designation to Q1 as well.

But what once was a 14-5 record has since become a 16-11 mark.

Until the Pac-12 tournament, Utah has a lone opportunity for a quality win (Oregon) and three chances (Stanford, Cal and Oregon State) at bad losses. It's imperative that the Utes finish the regular season no worse than 3-1, with the lone setback being at Oregon.

Short of that, a champion-or-bust outlook will presumably await Utah in the Pac-12's farewell tournament.

Up: Gonzaga Bulldogs

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Anton Watson

If you're a '90s baby like me, you might be wondering if Gonzaga is actually allowed to sit on the bubble. For most of our entire sport-watching lives, Mark Few's program has been an NCAA shoo-in.

Sure, the Bulldogs have been a double-digit seed three times in the last 20 NCAA tournaments. Otherwise, the Zags—who are riding a 24-season March Madness streak—have consistently held a top-four seed.

However, that will not be the case in 2024.

The Zags' six-game winning streak has nudged them to the positive side of the bubble. The mid-February triumph at Kentucky is looking like a lifeline for the West Coast Conference power.

Winning the WCC tourney is still Gonzaga's safest path to the Big Dance, but a victory at Saint Mary's in the regular-season finale wouldn't hurt, either.

Down: Virginia Cavaliers

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Tony Bennett

Whew buddy are we heading toward an "eye test" conversation about Virginia with the NCAA selection committee.

The metrics are fine. Tony Bennett's squad is 20-8 with Quadrant 1 wins against Clemson, Wake Forest and Florida. Overall, the Cavaliers hold a workable 6-7 record in Q1 and Q2 combined, and they have only one bad loss at Notre Dame. Not ideal, but not devastating.

When the Hoos are bad, though, they are baaaad.

All eight of their losses have been by double digits, including six by at least 16 points. Virginia has dropped three of its last four games with a trip to Duke on the horizon, too.

As of this writing, UVA would be a tourney team. Two more losses—especially of the lopsided variety—may force the selection committee to make a tough decision, though.