5 High-Seed Teams Most at Risk of Losing Early in 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament

One integral piece of what makes the men's NCAA tournament so beloved are the results that few people expected.

Last year, for example, Fairleigh Dickinson shocked top-seeded Purdue in the opening round of March Madness. It marked only the second time since 1985 that a No. 1 seed failed to win a single NCAA tourney game.

And there will be more mayhem in 2024.

Yes, we love our sleeper teams and Cinderella hopefuls. Where there's a memorable win, however, there is a devastating loss. The negative side of upsets is unavoidable, and that's our focus today.

Each team highlighted currently holds no worse than a No. 4 seed on the latest Bracket Matrix update.

Auburn Tigers

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Bruce Pearl

Projected Seed: 4

Many go-to statistics love Auburn, which is 14th in the AP Top 25 but fifth on KenPom.com (as of this writing).

The ever-animated Bruce Pearl has crafted a roster that can both explode for 90-plus points or hold opponents below 65. That balance, in theory, gives the Tigers a decent margin for error.

But it hasn't stopped Auburn from being very confusing.

In February alone, the Tigers went from smacking Alabama by 18 to losing at Florida by 16. They turned around to wallop South Carolina by 40, then dropped an 11-point game at home against Kentucky. Throw in a late-January loss to Mississippi State, and Auburn is a little bit chaotic.

The numbers look good. The roster, provided that Jaylin Williams is healthy in March, looks good. The results just don't always follow.

Baylor Bears

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Ja'Kobe Walter

Projected Seed: 3

There is plenty to like about a Baylor rotation that features six double-digit scorers and a top-five perimeter clip in the nation. This has been one of the best offenses to watch in 2023-24.

On the other hand, we have to consider the defense.

Thanks to a slow pace, Baylor—which is 286th in that metric on KenPom—doesn't necessarily give up a ton of points. Still, the Bears are an ugly 334th in transition defense, per Hoop-Math.com.

An efficient, up-tempo offense like Samford or Kentucky on the opening weekend could be a bad matchup for Baylor.

Iowa State Cyclones

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Keshon Gilbert

Projected Seed: 3

The bright side is Iowa State boasts a tenacious defense, one that forces turnovers at the highest rate in the country. In the right situations, the Cyclones are an absolute nightmare.

But an ideal opponent will not always await in March.

So much of Iowa State's success hinges on that elite ability to disrupt defensively. Five of the Cyclones' six losses have occurred when the team has forced no more than 15 turnovers, and each one of those setbacks happened on a road or neutral court.

Even a potential low-seeded team—such as Princeton/Yale, Vermont or Charleston—that rarely cedes possession could give Iowa State a fight, let alone a No. 6-type opponent in the second round.

Alabama Crimson Tide

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Nate Oats

Projected Seed: 3

Since opening 6-5 against a competitive slate, Alabama has rattled off a bunch of victories to flirt with a potential top-two NCAA seed. Plus, in fairness to the Tide, six of their losses are against ranked teams.

The concern, though, is with a defense that is below average both inside the arc and at forcing turnovers.

"We've had question marks about our defense all year. Those question marks are completely erased. Everybody knows we don't really guard at this point," head coach Nate Oats said after Kentucky hung 117 points on Bama in a late-February game, per Chase Goodbread of the Tuscaloosa News. "I thought our effort stunk."

One dreadful defensive game can quickly ruin a trip to the Big Dance.

And sometimes, as Bama's 95 points in that loss to UK showed, it might not matter how many you score, either.

Purdue Boilermakers

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Fletcher Loyer

Star center Zach Edey is incredible. Braden Smith, Fletcher Loyer and Mason Gillis are excellent three-point shooters, and second-leading scorer Lance Jones is no slouch from the perimeter, either.

But we've seen this movie before.

Purdue has earned a No. 5 seed or better in each of the past seven NCAA tournaments. That span includes three first-round losses and a second-round exit to a No. 11 seed. Reaching the Sweet 16 is hardly a failure, but falling to 15th-seeded Saint Peter's in 2022 was nothing less than a disaster.

Sure, it's a new year and a new team. Virginia went from its historic loss to UMBC in 2018 to winning the national title in 2019, and Purdue is aiming to repeat that inglorious feat in 2024.

Not mentioning the Boilers, however, would be foolish based on the program's recent March Madness history.