8 MLB Teams That'll Have a Worse Record in 2024
Spring training is when hope springs eternal in Major League Baseball.
Even the woebegone Oakland A's and Colorado Rockies technically, mathematically could win the World Series.
But, spoiler alert, not everyone will be better than last season.
In fact, recent history suggests we should expect eight teams to suffer at least 10 more losses in 2024 than they did in 2023.
Comparing 2016 to 2017, exactly eight teams suffered at least 10 more losses. Same goes for the shift from 2017 to 2018, from 2021 to 2022 and from 2022 to 2023, with the A's, Houston Astros, St. Louis Cardinals, Los Angeles Dodgers, Cleveland Guardians, New York Mets, Chicago White Sox and New York Yankees the eight who fit that description last season.
This, of course, raises the question: Which teams are likely to be considerably worse in 2024?
With apologies in advance to those nominated, here are our eight guesses, presented in alphabetical order.
Preseason win totals via DraftKings. Projections via PECOTA and FanGraphs.
Baltimore Orioles
1 of 8
2023 Record: 101-61
2024 Win Total Line: 90.5
2024 PECOTA Projection: 87.1 wins
2024 FanGraphs Projection: 85 wins
We're starting with the pick I am least comfortable making.
Baltimore's trade to acquire Corbin Burnes was fantastic. Getting Craig Kimbrel on a one-year deal to hold over the bullpen while Félix Bautista recovers from Tommy John surgery was a solid move. Grayson Rodriguez should be able to avoid the growing pains from the first half of last season and shine right away. And whether it's on Opening Day or shortly thereafter, the O's are going to add MLB's No. 1 prospect Jackson Holliday to the mix at some point.
It's plausible they'll be even better than last season.
But comparing the average of their 2024 win total line, PECOTA and FanGraphs projections to their 2023 record, Baltimore's mark of minus-13.5 is worst among the 30 teams, narrowly edging Tampa Bay and Milwaukee, both at minus-13.0.
The O's simply have to be included as a team that could fall back to earth in a big way after putting together their best season since 1979.
Here's the fun part, though: Baltimore could lose 10 more games than last season and still make the playoffs, as both the Dodgers (11 more losses than 2022) and Astros (16 more losses than 2022) did last season.
Getting to 91 wins almost certainly would not be enough to win the AL East, though, as that division champ has won at least 93 games in every full season dating back to 2001. But 91 wins should be more than enough for a wild-card spot.
Miami Marlins
2 of 8
2023 Record: 84-78
2024 Win Total Line: 78.5
2024 PECOTA Projection: 79.8 wins
2024 FanGraphs Projection: 80 wins
Of course the Marlins make this list, fresh off one of the "luckiest" seasons of all time.
By the end of a 162-game season, a team's winning percentage and its Pythagorean winning percentage—what its record should be based on run differential—tend to balance out. The Marlins had previously never had a difference of more than .033 percentage points between the two in a full season. But they ended 2023 with a winning percentage .056 points better than their Pythagorean, finishing six games above .500 despite a negative-57 run differential.
Not only should there be some regression to the mean on that front, but they simply did nothing to get better this offseason.
The Marlins lost 2022 NL Cy Young winner Sandy Alcantara to Tommy John surgery in October and lost Jorge Soler—who hit nearly twice as many home runs as the next-closest player on the roster—to the Giants in free agency. They also lost Joey Wendle, Yuli Gurriel and Jacob Stallings, who along with Soler combined for more than 1,500 plate appearances last season.
All they did to replace any of that production was take a $5 million flier on Tim Anderson having a bounce-back year and add a few backup infielders and a mop-up reliever.
Not great!
Maybe having full seasons of both Jake Burger and Josh Bell as opposed to just two months of each will help what was a woeful offense. But it's telling that Miami's "to make the playoffs" odds on DraftKings are tied with Boston for eighth-worst in the majors.
Milwaukee Brewers
3 of 8
2023 Record: 92-70
2024 Win Total Line: 77.5
2024 PECOTA Projection: 79.0 wins
2024 FanGraphs Projection: 80 wins
Not only have there consistently been six to eight teams that got at least 10 games worse from one year to the next, but there were at least two teams that got at least 21 games worse in each of the five two-year stretches we looked at. (Mets and Cardinals last year; A's, Giants and Reds the year before that; etc.)
And if you're picking one candidate to fit that description this year, it is most definitely the Milwaukee Brewers.
It has been a nice run for Milwaukee. Not so much in the postseason, but in winning at least 53 percent of games played in each of the past six 162-game seasons.
However, they barely look like the same team that won 92 games and the NL Central crown last season.
Gone are Corbin Burnes (traded to Orioles), Adrian Houser (traded to Mets), Brandon Woodruff (re-signed, but expected to miss the entire season), Eric Lauer (still a free agent), Julio Teheran (still a free agent) and the combined 84 starts they made last season.
They leave behind a starting rotation where Freddy Peralta is the ace, I guess? Where Aaron Ashby will be key after missing all of last season? And where Joe Ross might be a fixture after not making an MLB appearance since August 2021?
In the lineup, rookie Jackson Chourio is at least an exciting addition to the outfield, but there are a lot of new pieces and quite a bit of uncertainty at both third base and DH. Moreover, it's likely that impending free-agent shortstop Willy Adames will be traded if and when they throw in the towel on what could be a 90-loss season. Even their big offseason acquisition, Rhys Hoskins, could land on the trade block, as the second year of his deal is a player option.
Milwaukee isn't blatantly tanking like Oakland did two years ago. Rather, to their credit, the Brewers are still trying to build a contender after accepting the reality that Burnes wasn't going to sign a long-term extension.
It just doesn't look very promising in 2024.
Minnesota Twins
4 of 8
2023 Record: 87-75
2024 Win Total Line: 86.5
2024 PECOTA Projection: 89.0 wins
2024 FanGraphs Projection: 84 wins
Of the eight teams on this list, Minnesota is the pick least supported by the projections, as the Twins' expected win total is almost identical to where it finished last season.
But aside from "someone technically has to win the AL Central," what is the rationale behind expecting Minnesota to be just as good as it was in 2023?
There were 19 Twins worth at least 1.0 bWAR last season, and six of them are no longer on the roster, including their most valuable player by far, Sonny Gray (5.3 bWAR). They're also moving on without Jorge Polanco (2.0), Michael A. Taylor (1.9), Donovan Solano (1.7), Emilio Pagán (1.4) and Kenta Maeda (1.1), plus Tyler Mahle and Joey Gallo, who they certainly hoped would play bigger roles in 2023.
In their stead, Minnesota added Anthony DeSclafani (5.16 ERA over the past two seasons), Josh Staumont (6.09 ERA over the past two seasons), 38-year-old first baseman/DH Carlos Santana and Justin Topa, a reliever who had a good year out of nowhere in 2023 at the age of 32.
Not exactly a balanced swap there, nor exactly a surprise given the external restraints placed on Minnesota's ability to operate this offseason by the regional sports networks' uncertainty.
But the long and short of it is that Minnesota doesn't have as much talent as it had last year, and it is putting a lot of faith in the likes of Chris Paddack and DeSclafani staying healthy and productive. (Not to mention Byron Buxton, who never stays healthy.)
The Twins do have Royce Lewis, and hopefully for a full, healthy season for a change. But even if he plays at an All-Star level, a drop-off from last year's division-title run could be forthcoming.
San Diego Padres
5 of 8
2023 Record: 82-80
2024 Win Total Line: 81.5
2024 PECOTA Projection: 80.3 wins
2024 FanGraphs Projection: 81 wins
All the projections/lines suggest San Diego will be almost exactly as mediocre as it was last season, but are we sure this team isn't headed for an epic collapse?
The Padres traded Juan Soto and Trent Grisham, leaving two of the three outfield spots as gigantic question marks. They also lost Blake Snell, Seth Lugo, Michael Wacha, Nick Martínez, Tim Hill, Luis Garcia, Josh Hader and Gary Sánchez to free agency.
The four pitchers and backup catcher they got back in the Soto/Grisham trade—Michael King, Drew Thorpe, Randy Vásquez, Jhony Brito and Kyle Higashioka—at least somewhat address that long list of departures, but there is no denying that there is less overall talent in San Diego than there was last season.
Such is life when you slash your payroll by more than $100 million.
There's still a good amount of star power in San Diego. The big four of Manny Machado, Fernando Tatis Jr., Xander Bogaerts and Ha-Seong Kim can carry the lineup, while there are much worse one-two starting rotation punches than Yu Darvish and Joe Musgrove. But beyond those six, there are far more questions than answers.
The Padres will still be better than the Rockies, but you needn't squint much to see this team going 72-90 and trading Kim ($7 million mutual option for 2025 that he'll definitely decline to reach free agency) midway through a lost season.
Tampa Bay Rays
6 of 8
2023 Record: 99-63
2024 Win Total Line: 84.5
2024 PECOTA Projection: 86.8 wins
2024 FanGraphs Projection: 87 wins
As with the Orioles, we're not anticipating any sort of colossal fall from grace with the Rays, who could suffer 10 more losses than last season and still potentially sneak in as a No. 5 or No. 6 seed.
And if they were to considerably overachieve on the above projections, it certainly would not be the first time. In four of the past five 162-game seasons, the Tampa Bay "over" cashed by a margin of at least 9.5 wins.
However, these aren't the same Rays who started out 57-28 last season.
Shane McClanahan is going to miss the entire 2024 campaign while recovering from Tommy John surgery. Tyler Glasnow was traded to the Dodgers. They also traded Luke Raley and Manuel Margot and lost Robert Stephenson to free agency.
It's tough to know when Jeffrey Springs or Drew Rasmussen will be back from their elbow surgeries, and it remains unclear if Wander Franco will ever be back—though between trading for one shortstop (Jose Caballero) and signing another (Amed Rosario), it's pretty clear Tampa Bay has moved on.
Given the Rays' track record in recent years, we have to trust the process here. They might still have a formidable starting rotation led by Zach Eflin and Aaron Civale. And though the catcher spot is still a mystery, the rest of the lineup looks to be in great shape.
But given the premise that around eight teams are going to be at least 10 games worse in 2024, the Rays have to be one of the top candidates for that club.
Texas Rangers
7 of 8
2023 Record: 90-72
2024 Win Total Line: 89.5
2024 PECOTA Projection: 86.0 wins
2024 FanGraphs Projection: 82 wins
Fun Fact: Did you know the reigning World Series champion was one of the teams that got at least 10 games worse in three of the five two-year stretches we looked at?
After winning 103 games and the curse-breaking title in 2016, the Chicago Cubs won 92 the following year. The Boston Red Sox went from 108 wins during their 2018 title run to just 84 in 2019. And after an AL-best 106 wins in 2022, the Astros were 16 games worse in defending their title in 2023. (Had the 2020 season been a normal one, there's a good chance the Washington Nationals were also headed for at least 10 more losses than they suffered in 2019, though we'll never know for sure.)
Three out of five isn't much of a sample size, but how about six out of nine if you factor in the 2015 Kansas City Royals (-14), 2013 Boston Red Sox (-26) and 2012 San Francisco Giants (-18)?
Even including the Atlanta Braves winning 13 more games the year after winning their World Series title in 2021, we're now talking about a nine-year average of 10.9 more losses suffered the year after winning a World Series.
Could the Rangers be headed for a similar fate?
The natural inclination is "heck no" because of how potent this offense could/should be. Let's not forget that October star Evan Carter was a September call-up who will be taking Travis Jankowski's spot (1 HR, .689 OPS) in the lineup, that both Josh Jung and Corey Seager missed about a quarter of last season to injury and that top prospect Wyatt Langford might crack the Opening Day roster. This team ought to score a ton of runs.
But given how injury depleted the starting rotation is, maybe things go haywire in the first half of the season and they just never recover, as was the case for the Mets last year. (If the price for still-a-free-agent Jordan Montgomery drops enough that the Rangers are able to re-sign him on a short-term deal, that would be massive.)
Washington Nationals
8 of 8
2023 Record: 71-91
2024 Win Total Line: 66.5
2024 PECOTA Projection: 58.2 wins
2024 FanGraphs Projection: 66 wins
Simply put, the Washington Nationals overachieved last season.
With a preseason over/under of 59 wins, they were supposed to be the worst team in the majors. However, they finished 12 games better than expected as well as 21 games ahead of Oakland in that "race for MLB's basement."
Are they actually any better equipped to contend in the NL East, though? Or is this team that had an inexplicably good run through August going to slip deeper into last place in the division standings?
As far as roster additions go: Joey Gallo, Dylan Floro, Nick Senzel and Jesse Winker, the latter on a minor league deal. Those four reclamation projects were worth a combined negative-0.3 bWAR last year and are classic examples of players who will be traded ahead of the deadline if they have a bounce-back season, a la Jeimer Candelario last year. Trevor Williams and Victor Robles are also obvious candidates for the trade block if either impending free agent has a good first half of the season.
Sure, there's a best-case scenario in which the Nationals flirt with a .500 record.
Maybe Lane Thomas repeats his breakout year while Joey Meneses gets back to hitting like he did in 2022. Perhaps Cade Cavalli gets healthy and becomes the key cog of the starting rotation they've been hoping for in recent years. Perchance top prospects James Wood and Dylan Crews make their way to the majors and spark an offensive explosion. And could this be the year Carter Kieboom finally delivers on what was once considered a sky-high ceiling?
But it feels like a lot of things need to go just right in order for the Nats to be better than last season, and that at least one more rebuilding year is coming their way.
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