8 Potential NFL Cap Casualties Who Would Have Biggest Impact on Free-Agent Market
The perpetual motion machine that is the NFL never stops. The 2024 NFL Scouting Combine is just over a week away. Free agency will follow soon after that. And then this year's draft takes place in Detroit.
However, while the combine may be the team's next need, it isn't the most pressing for many. When the NFL's new league year begins on March 13, all 32 teams must be compliant with the 2024 salary cap.
Per Over the Cap, 11 teams are over the cap right now. Two more possess less than $10 million in cap space. Where free agency is concerned, almost half the league is broke (or nearly so).
There are a number of ways those 13 teams (and others) will get into the black. Players will be extended. Contracts will be reworked. The ever-popular "void years" will be added.
But some teams will be forced to release high-priced veterans whose production hasn't met their paycheck. Others will do so to create more space to attack free agency next month.
As is the case every year, though, there are big names who will find out over the next few weeks that they are also looking for work. And their addition to the open market will have a sizable impact, both on their NFL futures and those of the other free agents.
Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints
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You won't see Nick Chubb listed here, even with the Cleveland Browns deep in the red against the cap and the 28-year-old coming off a major knee injury.
You also won't see Aaron Jones of the Green Bay Packers, not after his last-season surge in 2023. Both of those backs are more likely to be restructured than released.
Alvin Kamara of the New Orleans Saints is another story.
The Saints' cap situation is a hot mess—no team is farther into the red than New Orleans at a staggering $83.7 million.
Kamara is coming off, arguably, the worst season of his career, missing four games, averaging less than four yards a carry and posting a career low in scrimmage yards. No running back in the league carries a higher 2024 cap hit than his $18.9 million.
The Saints drafted a potential replacement last year in third-rounder Kendre Miller. And the team can shave $11.8 million off the cap by releasing the Tennessee product with a post-June 1 designation.
With that said, though, Kamara is also a five-time Pro Bowler who has never amassed less than 1,100 scrimmage yards in a season and was not that long ago considered perhaps the most dangerous dual threat running back in the NFL.
The free-agent market at running back could already be crowded with names like Josh Jacobs, Tony Pollard and Austin Ekeler. But Kamara would generate no shortage of interest, especially from teams who consider themselves contenders but struggled to run the ball last year.
Khalil Mack, Edge, Los Angeles Chargers
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The Los Angeles Chargers have quite a decision to make.
They are $35.5 million over the salary cap and their top two players in terms of 2024 cap hits are starting edge-rushers Khalil Mack ($38.5 million) and Joey Bosa ($36.6 million).
It's possible both players could be restructured and retained, but it's also well within reason that one could be cut. At first glance, the decision might appear an easy one. Mack is 33 and nearing the end of his professional career, while Bosa is in the prime of his career at 28 and was drafted by the Bolts third overall in 2016.
But it's not that simple. Bosa has had all kinds of injury problems in recent years—he has missed at least four games in three of the past four seasons and played in just 14 games the last two years combined. Only once in the past four seasons has he eclipsed 10 sacks in a season.
Meanwhile, in his second season with the Bolts, Mack turned back the clock. He amassed a career-high 17 sacks, posted the second-most tackles for loss (21) of his career and should likely have received more consideration for Defensive Player of the Year—an award he won in 2016.
However, there's also the financial consideration—Mack's release (post-June 1) would shave a whopping $23.3 million off the cap—almost nine million more than releasing Bosa.
Add it all together, and Mack's the more likely player to be shown the door. And no matter his age, anyone coming off a 17-sack season is going to generate no shortage of potential suitors on the open market.
Mike Williams, WR, Los Angeles Chargers
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Mack might not be the only veteran shown the door by the new regime in Los Angeles as it attempts to comply with the salary cap.
Per Brad Spielberger of Pro Football Focus, a combination of an awful financial situation and the ACL tear that ended his 2023 campaign could leave wide receiver Mike Williams on the chopping block as well:
"The Chargers have a strong case as the NFL team in the worst financial situation heading into the offseason, so several tough decisions await. An unfortunate ACL tear could push them to move on from wideout Mike Williams, a former top-10 pick, as he's one of four players with a 2024 cap hit north of $30 million—none of whom are quarterback Justin Herbert."
The Chargers could save more money by parting ways with veteran Keenan Allen, but it's hard to imagine the team cutting the 10th-most targeted player in the league.
Williams got off to a good start last year, but he's missed more games over the past two seasons than he's played in. The Chargers have an in-house replacement in second-year pro Quentin Johnston. And with the fifth pick in this year's draft, Ohio State's Marvin Harrison Jr. or LSU's Malik Nabers could be in play.
Still, Williams won't turn 30 until October, he has a pair of 1,000-yard seasons on his professional resume, and he has the size and skill set to serve as a No. 1 wide receiver.
This year's free-agent class at wide receiver is potentially deep, but if players such as Mike Evans or Michael Pittman Jr. end up staying put, Williams could quickly become one of the best available options at what has become a premium position.
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C.J. Mosley, ILB, New York Jets
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To be clear, New York Jets linebacker C.J. Mosley did not sound like a player whose future with the team could be in jeopardy when he spoke with the official Jets podcast in January.
Instead, the 31-year-old sounded like a veteran ready for his team to take the next step in 2024 with the return of a healthy Aaron Rodgers:
"The door has been opened. We just got to kick it down. There's something behind there that's blocking it. We just got to knock that door down. I think physically we're ready for that challenge. Mentally, we were tested a lot this year, and, for the most part, we held it down. But it's going to take a whole other level to get to where we want. It's going to be tough. It's not going to be easy. It's not going to be fair. Just got to do it."
Mosley's level of play hasn't fallen off, either. In 2023, he paced the Jets with 152 total tackles—the third consecutive season in which he has amassed at least 150 stops.
But the Alabama product also carries the highest cap number ($21.5 million) of any player on a Jets team in 2024 that is right up against the salary cap. As a post-June 1 cut, he would shave $17 million off the salary cap—money that could be used to bring in a cheaper replacement and address other needs.
And after a breakout 2023, Quincy Williams looks the part of a player who could be ready for a leadership role on defense.
Off-ball linebacker isn't a premium position in the eyes of many NFL teams. And even if Mosley became available, he might not be the best player on the market at the position.
But there would be considerable interest in the five-time Pro Bowler, especially from contenders looking to upgrade the middle of the defense.
David Bakhtiari, OT, Green Bay Packers
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This may well be the most likely cut on the entire list for a number of reasons.
There was a time when David Bakhtiari was considered one of the best left tackles in the league and he was compensated as such.
However, as Matt Okada of NFL.com noted, perception and reality have drifted farther and farther apart in recent years:
"Formerly the perennial protector of Aaron Rodgers' blind side, Bakhtiari has missed 38 of a possible 51 games over the last three regular seasons, turns 33 years old early next season and carries an absurd $40 million cap hit, highest for any offensive lineman in the league. It will be painful for Green Bay fans to say farewell after 11 years -- and the $19 million in dead money isn't ideal -- but the $21 million in cap savings is critical for a front office currently in the red. It will likely fall to 2022 seventh-rounder Rasheed Walker, who started 15 games last year, to continue carrying the mantle at left tackle."
At this point, it's fair to wonder just how much interest an aging tackle who has barely averaged over four games played per season the past three years will generate on the open market.
The answer is quite a bit.
The reality is that even average left tackles are highly sought-after commodities who annually command $15 million or more in free agency.
Provided Bakhtiari wishes to continue playing in 2024, there are going to be multiple teams willing to gamble that he can recapture the form that made him a three-time Pro Bowler and two-time first-team All Pro.
Xavien Howard, CB, Miami Dolphins
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At least Miami Dolphins cornerback Xavien Howard is realistic about his future in South Florida.
After losing to the Kansas City Chiefs in the Wild Card Round, he told reporters he was well aware that his eighth season in Miami may have been his last.
"It's up in the air. At the end of the day it's a business also," he said. "My eight years here, I've made the best of it. If this year is the last year and I have to say goodbye to some of the guys here I understand. It's a part of the business. No matter where I go, I'm still going to do my thing."
The 30-year-old was once considered one of the best cornerbacks in the NFL, and he intercepted 10 passes and finished third in Defensive Player of the Year voting in 2020. His passer rating against last year of 81.3 was actually almost 20 points lower than in his last Pro Bowl season.
But Howard is also getting older, his cap hit of $25.9 million in 2024 is the fourth-highest on the team, the Dolphins are nearly $52 million over the salary cap and his release (post-June 1) would clear $18.5 million off the books.
Mind you, this is a Dolphins team potentially staring down the barrel of a massive extension for quarterback Tua Tagovailoa as well.
Trading Howard before June 1 doesn't net Miami nearly the same amount of cap relief. So, it's either wait until 2025 for compensation, or let him go.
And if the Dolphins choose the latter route, Howard would become the best free agent available at one of the NFL's most coveted positions.
Russell Wilson, QB, Denver Broncos
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This one was saved for last among the offensive players if only because the parting of ways between quarterback Russell Wilson and the Denver Broncos will be unprecedented.
However, this isn't a move that helps Denver's cap situation. As things stand, the Broncos are about $24 million over the cap for 2024. If they release Wilson with a post-June 1 designation, they will eat a $35.4 million dead cap hit this year.
All told, the 35-year-old's dead cap hit will total a staggering $85 million.
However, Parker Gabriel of the Denver Post reported that appears to be exactly what is going to happen ahead of $37 million in guarantees for 2025 hitting the books on March 17:
"The Broncos tried to approach Wilson midseason about a contract restructure because they weren't comfortable with the idea of his 2025 money becoming guaranteed if he got hurt. Then later in the season, (Sean) Payton benched him for the final two games. Now, Wilson and Ciara are taking showings and offers on their Cherry Hills home. Not much in there that points to a likely reunion."
Wilson's two years in Denver have been disappointing, but they weren't terrible. He's also a nine-time Pro Bowler who played in two Super Bowls and won one.
He is easily the most accomplished veteran quarterback likely to be available in 2024. More so than Kirk Cousins or Baker Mayfield. And there are more teams who need a quarterback than reliable options to go around.
There will be a handful of teams that pursue Wilson the moment he's released.
Kevin Byard, S, Philadelphia Eagles
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Denver Broncos safety Justin Simmons almost earned this spot—the team could clear $14.5 million from the cap by releasing the veteran who's in the last year of his contract. But he is a cornerstone of the defense, so an extension or restructure would appear the wiser route.
There's much less question with Kevin Byard of the Philadelphia Eagles.
The Eagles traded for Byard midseason last year in an effort to bolster their lagging pass defense. Instead, they actually got worse, and whether it was the scheme or lack of familiarity with it, while Byard piled up tackles (a career-high 122 between the Eagles and Tennessee Titans), he was nowhere close to the impact player Philly hoped to be getting.
The Eagles aren't in the same dire cap situation as some of the other teams in this column. But if center Jason Kelce runs it back one more time and the team wants to retain running back D'Andre Swift, a good chunk of their cap space will be gone—before taking into account this year's rookie class or retooling the team's dreadful pass defense.
Philly can clear just over $14 million off the books with a negligible dead cap hit by releasing the 30-year-old. It's essentially a no-brainer.
With that said, Byard has topped 100 tackles in three of the past four years and logged at least four interceptions five times over his career.
He isn't going to command the salary of a younger safety like Antoine Winfield of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers, but that is just going to make him more attractive to teams looking for a back-end upgrade that won't break the bank.
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