The Achilles' Heel for Men's College Basketball's AP Top 10 Teams
No men's college basketball team is perfect, especially this season.
Even the best of the best have had fatal flaws. And in the NCAA tournament where everything boils down to matchups and not having a bad day at the wrong time, it's often the respective Achilles' heels more so than the respective strengths that determine a national champion.
So, what's the biggest thing to watch out for with the top title contenders?
Achilles' heels range from specific players to rebound margin to perimeter defense to frequent offensive droughts and plenty in between.
Teams are listed in ascending order of AP Top 10 ranking.
10. North Carolina Tar Heels
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Achilles' Heel: Elliot Cadeau's contributions beyond assists
North Carolina's dynamic duo of R.J. Davis and Armando Bacot is up there with the best in the country. Throw in Harrison Ingram's do-it-all play and Cormac Ryan averaging better than 10 points per game and the Tar Heels have got one heck of a Big Four.
And then there's Elliot Cadeau.
By no means am I declaring Cadeau a bust. The freshman point guard has great court vision and passing instincts, and it's hard to believe he's only averaging 4.0 assists per game in this offense.
But there's a fine line between a "pass first" point guard and a "pass only" point guard, and Cadeau has gotten a reputation as the latter.
He'll occasionally score if you dare him to shoot, but he's 7-for-34 from distance and has just a 45.0 effective field-goal percentage for the year.
On the plus side, at least he recognizes he's not a great shooter. Caleb Love had a 45.2 eFG% last season for UNC and just kept trying to shoot his way past it. But it's getting to the point where opponents aren't the least bit afraid to sag off Cadeau in their quest to slow down Davis.
Moreover, Cadeau's defense leaves something to be desired, resulting in a 1.3 box plus/minus that ranks worst by far among UNC's seven leaders in minutes played.
Again, not calling him a bust. He could be an All-ACC point guard in a year or two. But he's nowhere near the one-and-done prospect we thought he might be, and he will be the player that UNC's NCAA tournament opponents try to attack and try to force to attack.
9. Kansas Jayhawks
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Achilles' Heel: Perimeter Defense
For the first half of the season, Kansas' Achilles' heel was its backcourt situation with Elmarko Jackson in the starting lineup. Since the team handed Johnny Furphy the reins, however, that spot in the rotation is no longer a concern.
Well, at least not on offense.
This isn't necessarily Furphy's fault—his defensive rating is considerably better than Jackson's—but defending the three-point arc has been a major problem in Kansas' four losses since making that switch in the starting lineup.
West Virginia, Iowa State, Kansas State and Texas Tech shot a combined 45-for-103 (43.7 percent) from downtown in knocking off the Jayhawks. And with the exception of Texas Tech, those haven't been good three-point shooting teams this season. However, they had minimal trouble finding and converting open looks against Kansas.
Kansas didn't do itself any favors on offense in those games, either, shooting 20-for-74 from distance across those four losses.
In both regards, they need more out of Dajuan Harris, who has the worst defensive rating among the nine Jayhawks who have played at least 30 minutes.
He's shooting 41.7 percent from distance for the season, which is best among the primary seven Jayhawks. But save for hitting 5-of-6 in the Champions Classic against Kentucky, the veteran point guard has been reluctant to call his own number, averaging more than 16 minutes played per three-point attempt over his last 23 contests.
Suffice it to say, no one is confusing Harris with Frank Mason, Devonte' Graham or Devon Dotson.
8. Duke Blue Devils
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Achilles' Heel: Inconsistent Guard Play
Duke's actual biggest problem this season has been an inability to stay healthy.
Mark Mitchell played against Arizona after missing the opener against Dartmouth, but at less than full strength, he was no match for Keshad Johnson and that frontcourt. Losing Tyrese Proctor one minute into the game at Georgia Tech was a killer. Hosting Pittsburgh without both Mitchell and Jeremy Roach available was more than the Blue Devils could handle. And, well, there's no excuse for that bad loss at Arkansas.
Even when healthy, though, this four-man backcourt has been all over the map.
Proctor, in particular, has had some serious no-shows. His decision to return for a second season was maybe the biggest reason Duke opened the year as one of the favorites to win it all, but he has scored three points or fewer in four of his last 11 games played.
Jared McCain has become a consistent force and may well be Duke's best player at this point, but he got out to quite the rocky start while the Blue Devils lost three of their first eight games. (If "February McCain" had shown up for those early losses to Arkansas and Georgia Tech, there's no way Duke drops those games.)
Caleb Foster occasionally looks like he could be a major piece of the puzzle, but then he vanishes for another few games.
At least Roach has been pretty consistent, but would you believe there have only been six games this season in which three of those four guards scored in double figures and no games thus far with all four reaching 10 points?
When all four score at least three points, though, Duke is a perfect 11-0 with an average scoring margin of 20.3 points. But that's less than half of their games played.
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7. Marquette Golden Eagles
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Achilles' Heel: Rebounding
A lot of things went haywire for Marquette in the final 10 minutes of the first half of that blowout loss to Connecticut this past Saturday.
But the biggest problem might have been the sheer inability to do anything on the glass.
During that 10-minute stretch in which Connecticut turned an 18-18 tie into a 42-26 blowout, do you know what the rebounding situation was? The Huskies grabbed 19 while the Golden Eagles grabbed five. More than that, UConn had nine offensive rebounds during that stretch, resulting in nine second-chance points. Marquette had none.
Rebounding was also a considerable factor in Marquette's losses to Seton Hall, Wisconsin and Purdue, and getting worked on the glass almost cost them dearly in the one-point win over St. John's a month ago.
They can make up for it with steals, with threes and with Tyler Kolek doing heroic stuff, but it is undeniably a problem for them.
Fortunately, Oso Ighodaro almost never gets into foul trouble, but I shudder to think how dire the rebounding margin could get for Marquette if he were to get whistled for a few early fouls in an NCAA tournament game—especially if it comes against a team like Arizona or Saint Mary's who already tends to dominate the glass.
6. Iowa State Cyclones
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Achilles' Heel: Facing turnover-averse offenses
Iowa State's defense can get after you like no other team in the nation. We're talking peak VCU "Havoc" or peak "Press Virginia" with the Cyclones' ability to force turnovers.
Heading into Monday night's game against Houston, Iowa State's defense was averaging 18.0 turnovers per game and had as many steals (268) as it did giveaways on offense.
But in that game against turnover-averse Houston, Iowa State had to shoot uncommonly well from three-point range just to score 65 points in a game it never led.
While that ability to force turnovers can lead to run-out buckets and blowout victories, the Cyclones are nothing special against teams who can handle that ball pressure and use that aggressive defense against the Cyclones by draining the wide-open threes that can result from some of their gambles along the perimeter.
Yes, Iowa State leads the nation in turnover percentage on defense. It also has one of the highest three-point rates allowed and one of the highest assist rates allowed.
"Pass the ball a lot without turning it over" is easier said than done against this defense, but it can be done. And in addition to that approach leading to some wide-open triples, not turning the ball over forces Iowa State to play more half-court offense, where it is good-not-great.
When forcing at least 17 turnovers, Iowa State is averaging 85.5 points per game. When the Cyclones force 16 turnovers or fewer, however, their scoring drops to 71.1 points per game. And in the seven times they forced 13 or fewer turnovers, they scored more than 72 just once—when they lost their minds and hit 14 threes in the 79-75 home win over Kansas.
5. Tennessee Volunteers
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Achilles' Heel: Consistency on Offense
If this sounds a bit like Tennessee's biggest problem from last year, it's because it is absolutely the same issue.
The 2022-23 Tennessee team was good for one great big mess on offense every few games—almost unbeatable when scoring at least 73 points because of its great defense, but held below 60 too often to be trusted in March.
And while this year's Vols are considerably more prolific on offense—averaging slightly better than 80 points per game now that they have Dalton Knecht in the fold—they do still fall completely flat on occasion.
Once again, they are almost unbeatable when scoring 73 points. Tennessee was 14-1 in such games last season and is already 18-1 this season. But the Vols have gone 1-5 when held to 72 points or fewer, which happens every couple of weeks.
It's usually not a case of Knecht having an off night, either. In the three most recent losses, he scored 81 of their 200 points. The problem is that the rest of the offense didn't show up for those games, with everyone else shooting a combined 44-for-122 (36.1 percent) from the field and 8-for-51 (15.7 percent) from three-point range.
It does feel like if anyone could "Kemba Walker" his team to a title this year, it's Knecht. He hasn't quite hit 40 in a game yet, but he could. But we forget that Walker did have some serious help in the form of Jeremy Lamb averaging 16.2 points during that championship run.
Can Zakai Zeigler be that for Knecht and the Vols?
4. Arizona Wildcats
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Achilles' Heel: Perimeter Defense
To some extent, three-point defense is dumb luck. In Arizona's loss to Oregon State, it felt like the Beavers could have put on a blindfold, fired one up from half court and hit nothing but net.
Sometimes you just have to tip your cap to a hot-shooting team.
But with Arizona, it happens a little too often.
There have been eight games this season in which an opponent made at least 10 triples against the Wildcats, including Stanford shooting a combined 30-ofx-58 from distance in its two games against Arizona. And in the big showdown with Purdue back in December, Arizona had no answer for Braden Smith and Fletcher Loyer, both of whom shot better than 50 percent from downtown.
Arizona does have the highest-scoring offense in the nation at 90.7 points per game. So if any team can withstand an opponent getting hot and draining a dozen triples, it should be the Wildcats.
The problem is that their bad defense travels more so than their great offense does.
Arizona has yet to allow an opponent to score more than 73 points in a game at the McKale Center, but has allowed at least 73 points in all but one game played away from home, with opponents shooting a combined 103-of-281 (36.7 percent) from three in those 12 games.
Their average score in 13 home games is 94.3 to 63.6 (+30.7 PPG). Away from home, it's 86.75 to 83.0 (+3.75 PPG). And while the Final Four is in Phoenix this year, the Wildcats won't be getting any home games in the dance.
(Plus, some lot of good a great regular-season offense did them last year, scoring nearly 28 points below their season average in a 59-55 first-round loss to Princeton.)
3. Purdue Boilermakers
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Achilles' Heel: Fletcher Loyer's Defense
Purdue hasn't lost many games this season, but late in the two close losses, one gigantic issue stood out.
Opponents are very deliberately using ball screens to get Fletcher Loyer switched onto their player who is best in isolation offense, and proceeding to destroy him. Northwestern's Boo Buie particularly took advantage of those switches in the upset in Evanston.
On Monday morning, Loyer had a D Rating of 105.4, per Sports Reference. That's the worst among Boilermakers who have logged at least 50 minutes this season and worst by far among their five starters.
Over the final minute of the Ohio State game, Matt Painter kept taking Loyer out in offense-for-defense substitutions, but it was too little too late.
Loyer can do enough on offense to make up for his defensive shortcomings, but he's not that consistent of a scorer, held to seven points or fewer 10 times already this season. So if he's having a poor shooting night and getting worked on the defensive end of the floor, that's how Zach Edey and Co. could get eliminated by a double-digit seed for a fourth consecutive year.
The addition of Lance Jones and the improvement of Braden Smith undoubtedly makes Purdue better equipped to avoid a similar disaster, but never say never.
2. Houston Cougars
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Achilles' Heel: Putting the ball through the hoop
Houston's defense is second to none. We're talking 55 points allowed per game, well ahead of this year's No. 2 on the list in adjusted defensive efficiency and darn near the best adjusted defensive efficiency in KenPom history.
And because the Cougars rank among the best in the nation at both offensive rebounding and avoiding committing turnovers, it looks like they also have one of the most efficient offenses in the country.
In reality, this team does not shoot well.
LJ Cryer can stroke it from deep. Emanuel Sharp isn't exactly a poor shooter. Jamal Shead has improved as a scorer since the first half of the season. And the three main frontcourt guys (J'Wan Roberts, Ja'Vier Francis and JoJo Tugler) can dunk with authority.
But as a team, the Cougars rank well outside the top 200 in the nation in effective field-goal percentage. They're also a terrible free-throw shooting team, resulting in a few offensive duds, especially away from home.
Houston's offensive profile in terms of tempo, eFG%, OR% and TO% is quite similar to that of 2013-14 Syracuse—who started out 25-0 before limping to the finish line and getting bounced in the second round of the dance in a 55-53 loss to a No. 11 seed.
By no means is that a proclamation that Houston will get bounced before the Sweet 16. But if the Cougars were held below 60 points in an early upset, it wouldn't be a stunner. In three of their last four NCAA tournament losses, they scored 59, 58 and 44. And their current eFG% is worse than it was in any of those seasons.
1. Connecticut Huskies
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Achilles' Heel: History? I guess?
Here is your fun fact of the day: Since Florida repeated as national champions in 2006-07, there have been 15 NCAA tournaments, in which the reigning national champion has won a combined total of 13 games, not once reaching the Elite Eight.
Yes, there were four instances of the reigning champ not even making the dance, and quite a few others in which the reigning champ was nowhere near as good as Connecticut is this season. But there were also four reigning champs who earned No. 1 seeds—Duke in 2011, Villanova in 2017, Baylor in 2022 and Kansas in 2023—and they combined to go 5-4 en route to their early exits.
For whatever reason, we just have not even come close to a repeat champ in nearly two decades.
And, well, that's about the only justification I can give you for not picking UConn to win it all this year.
Since getting a healthy Stephon Castle back up to full speed in early January and later reintroducing a healthy Donovan Clingan to the mix, the Huskies have been a wagon.
Even before they boatraced Marquette over the weekend, there was already an almost irrefutable consensus that they were the most complete team in the country and the favorite to win it all.
The only semi-legitimate concern we have with this team is that maybe it's not a great idea for the least efficient shooter in the nine-man rotation (Tristen Newton) to lead the team in field-goal attempts. Anyone could go cold in the tournament, but Newton going for 10 points on 16 shots while UConn gets clipped by a No. 9 seed that catches fire from distance feels like a plausible nightmare scenario for the reigning champs.
If that doesn't happen, though, let's make some history in Phoenix.
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