Buying or Selling 2024 Vegas Title Odds of Every AP Top 10 CBB Team
With the NFL season now complete, the NBA trade deadline done and the MLB season still more than a month from starting, now is the time when college basketball moves into a prominent position on the sports landscape.
For some sports fans, that means putting down a futures bet on the 2024 national title winner. And while there is still a lot of basketball to be played before the start of March Madness, there is a group of teams that has started to separate from the pack.
Ahead, we've taken a closer look at the current title odds of the Top 10 teams in the latest AP poll, which was released on Feb. 12, and given our take on whether to buy or sell placing a bet on them to win it all at those current odds.
Odds courtesy of DraftKings sportsbook.
10. Iowa State Cyclones
1 of 10
Odds: +3000 (13th-best odds)
The Iowa State Cyclones are the only team currently ranked inside the Top 10 in the AP poll who began the season unranked, and they were picked to finish seventh in the Big 12 in the conference's preseason poll.
Led by a stout defense allowing just 62.1 points and forcing 17.8 turnovers per contest, they have gone 7-3 to begin conference play, picking up huge wins over Houston and Kansas at Hilton Coliseum along the way.
With six players averaging at least eight points per game, the offense features a well-rounded attack, albeit one without a go-to scorer to lean on in the halfcourt. Point guard Tamin Lipsey has filled up the stat sheet all season, allowing 13.2 points, 5.0 rebounds and 5.6 assists per contest.
The Cyclones still need to play Houston on the road and have a rematch with BYU who beat them earlier this year. But their remaining schedule is favorable, which could help them build momentum heading into the Big 12 Tournament and on into March Madness.
Verdict: Buying
9. Duke Blue Devils
2 of 10
Odds: +2800 (11th-best odds)
The Duke Blue Devils are 13-2 in their last 15 games, but they still have some work to do building an elite resume.
They have gone just 5-4 in Quad 1 and Quad 2 games, and while that includes losses to top-tier opponents in Arizona and North Carolina, they also suffered a Quad 3 loss on the road against Georgia Tech in December.
Big man Kyle Filipowski is averaging 17.2 points and 8.2 rebounds to lead five players averaging in double figures, and the Blue Devils rank eighth in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency rankings.
However, they have gone just 2-5 in games where they allow more than 70 points, including a season-high 93 points allowed against the rival Tar Heels earlier this month.
The odds are still favorable enough to buy Duke's upside, but the next few weeks will be critical in cementing its standing.
Verdict: Buying
8. Tennessee Volunteers
3 of 10
Odds: +1100 (fourth-best odds)
The Tennessee Volunteers are one of only three teams right now that rank in the Top 15 in KenPom's adjusted offensive efficiency (14th) and adjusted defensive efficiency (seventh), joining potential No. 1 seeds Purdue and Arizona.
However, a home loss against South Carolina on Jan. 30 and a road defeat against Texas A&M on Feb. 10 has them trending in the wrong direction heading into the stretch run of the regular season.
Dalton Knecht has poured in 20.3 points per game on 40.5 percent shooting from beyond the arc, but the team as a whole does not shoot particularly well from the perimeter. Case in point, he went 6-of-11 from distance and tallied a team-high 22 points against Texas A&M, but the rest of the team shot just 2-of-18 from three-point range in a lopsided 85-69 loss.
The Volunteers are talented enough to beat anyone, and their resume includes wins over Illinois, Kentucky, Alabama and Wisconsin, but they have also proved to be beatable over the past few weeks.
Verdict: Selling
.png?w=256 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
7. North Carolina Tar Heels
4 of 10
Odds: +1500 (sixth-best odds)
The North Carolina Tar Heels went 9-0 to begin conference play and climbed as high as No. 3 in the AP poll before suffering a shocking loss against Georgia Tech (NET: 140), but they quickly rebounded with a huge win over rival Duke on Feb. 3.
They lost again three days later, this time at home against Clemson for their first defeat of the season in Chapel Hill.
After the letdown that was the 2022-23 season, it's hard not to cringe a bit at the team's recent stumbles, but that red-hot start to ACC play and the Duke win also showed this team is capable of running with anyone.
Few teams in the country can boast a one-two punch with experience and production like RJ Davis (21.5 PPG, 41.4 3PT%) and Armando Bacot (14.2 PPG, 10.3 RPG), and with those two leading the way, it's not hard to buy the Tar Heels at their current odds.
Verdict: Buying
6. Kansas Jayhawks
5 of 10
Odds: +1800 (seventh-best odds)
With wins over No. 1 UConn, No. 3 Houston and No. 8 Tennessee, there is little question the Kansas Jayhawks have what it takes to be a national title contender.
However, a 4-3 record in their last seven games with road losses against Kansas State (NET: 77) and West Virginia (NET: 154) have moved them off the 1-seed line for the time being while showing some cracks in the armor.
Hunter Dickinson (18.7 PPG, 11.0 RPG) and Kevin McCullar (19.5 PPG, 6.4 RPG) are both reliable scorers, and Dajuan Harris Jr. (8.0 PPG, 6.6 APG) is one of the nation's elite facilitators at the point guard position.
The question is whether they can find enough production on the perimeter, both offensive and defensively. They average just 6.2 made threes per game, which ranks 300th in the nation, and that can make them one-dimensional at times offensively.
That said, no one would be surprised if this team won it all, and the odds are increasingly favorable.
Verdict: Buying
5. Arizona Wildcats
6 of 10
Odds: +1300 (fifth-best odds)
The Arizona Wildcats lost leading scorer Ąžuolas Tubelis (19.8 PPG, 9.1 RPG), but replaced his production effectively by landing UNC transfer Caleb Love (18.9 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.3 APG) in the portal.
They still have size inside with 7'0", 260-pound Oumar Ballo (13.0 PPG, 9.8 RPG) taking his game to another level, and the result is one of the most well-rounded offensive teams in the nation, ranking fourth in KenPom's offensive efficiency while pouring in 90.1 points per contest.
The question is going to be how they stack up to top-tier teams playing in an extremely weak Pac-12. They beat Duke, Michigan State, Wisconsin and Alabama in non-conference play, but they also have three conference losses and are currently the only Pac-12 squad in the AP Top 25 poll.
Will the Wildcats be able to flip the switch when the stakes ramp up after coasting through conference play? It's an issue that has plagued Gonzaga over the years while it has failed to win it all time and time again.
Verdict: Selling
4. Marquette Golden Eagles
7 of 10
Odds: +2800 (11th-best odds)
The Marquette Golden Eagles have won seven in a row since hitting a bump in the road with consecutive losses to Seton Hall and Butler in early January, but they will be tested in the coming weeks.
They beat a ranked Creighton team at home in late December, but they still need to face them on the road, while also squaring off against No. 1 UConn twice over their final eight games. The outcome of those three contests could determine if this group is vying for a No. 1 seed or sitting closer to the middle of the AP poll.
Star point guard Tyler Kolek (15.6 PPG, 7.5 APG) is the key to their success, and he was silenced in those losses to Seton Hall (1-of-6 shooting, 5 points) and Butler (1-of-13 shooting, 2 points).
The story is still largely unwritten for this Marquette team, and the next few weeks could shift its odds considerably, so getting in now when it has the 11th-best odds could end up being the best time to buy.
Verdict: Buying
3. Houston Cougars
8 of 10
Odds: +950 (third-best odds)
Perimeter shooting can go cold and star players can get into foul trouble or have off-nights, but good team defense is a foundation for success that can be counted on every time.
The Houston Cougars rank first in KenPom's adjusted defensive efficiency by a wide margin, and they also lead the nation with just 54.7 points allowed per game while forcing 16.1 turnovers per contest.
The trio of LJ Cryer (14.8 PPG, 37.2 3PT%), Jamal Shead (12.7 PPG, 5.8 APG) and Emanuel Sharp (12.2 PPG, 4.0 RPG) lead the way on the offensive end, but this isn't a team that is going to keep up in a shootout.
After a 14-0 start, the Cougars suffered their first loss of the season against Iowa State, and they also lost to Kansas on the road on Feb. 3. They will have a chance to avenge both of those defeats on their home court down the stretch, but before they can be considered national title contenders, they need to prove they can beat the best of the best in the Big 12.
Verdict: Selling
2. Purdue Boilermakers
9 of 10
Odds: +700 (second-best odds)
As B/R's Kerry Miller pointed out in the late November version of this same article, 100 percent of No. 1 seeds that have lost to No. 16 seeds in the NCAA tournament went on to win the title the following year, with the 2018-19 Virginia Cavaliers going the distance the year after they fell to No. 16 UMBC the previous year.
Can the Purdue Boilermakers keep that trend alive?
The return of Zach Edey (23.3 PPG, 11.7 RPG, 2.3 BPG) immediately made them national title contenders, and he is well on his way to a second National Player of the Year season.
They also rank No. 3 in the nation with a 40.0 percent clip from beyond the arc, and Edey's dominance inside helps open up the deep ball for their shooters on the perimeter.
Their only losses have come on the road against Northwestern and Nebraska, who are projected to be No. 9 and No. 10 seeds, respectively, in the latest Bracket Matrix.
It's tempting to simply fade this team given its recent struggles in the NCAA tournament, but it's going to be a tough draw for anyone.
Verdict: Buying
1. UConn Huskies
10 of 10
Odds: +650 (best odds)
The only losses the defending champion UConn Huskies have suffered this season came before the calendar flipped to 2024, with a narrow four-point loss to Kansas on Dec. 1 and a head-scratching 75-60 defeat at Seton Hall on Dec. 20.
They shot 4-of-21 from beyond the arc in the Seton Hall game, and leading scorer Cam Spencer managed just five points on 2-of-7 shooting from the field, so it was an off-night in more ways than one for a team that has been largely dominant all season.
Upcoming games at home against Marquette (Feb. 17), on the road against Creighton (Feb. 20) and at Marquette (March 6) will determine if this team truly is a front-runner to win it all again in 2024.
The pieces are there for this squad to beat anyone and go on another run in March, but buying now when the Huskies are the favorites and have yet to play out the toughest part of their schedule would be ill-advised.
Verdict: Selling
.png?w=480 "NCAA Men's Basketball Tournament Championship")
.jpg?w=600 "Colts Release Kenny Moore")
