Buying or Selling 2024 Title Odds for Top Teams in Men's College Basketball
Even if you're the type to gripe that it's "too early in the season for bracketology," it's never too early for men's college basketball national championship odds.
If you're going to place such a bet today, it should probably be on a team ranked in the AP Top 10. The last eight national champions (as well as 15 of the past 16) were ranked in the Top 10 of the final AP poll of November.
So, which of those top teams' odds to win it all are most worth buying roughly four months before the 2024 title game?
We'll give a brief justification for buying and selling each team before offering up a verdict. And with six sells and only four buys, apologies to the fans of the 60 percent of Top 10 teams who are about to get irrationally angry.
Teams are listed in ascending order of ranking in the latest AP poll. Title odds are from DraftKings as the morning of Tuesday, Nov. 28.
(It's worth mentioning that AP No. 12 Kentucky has the eighth-best odds at +1600—or at least was listed at +1600 before throttling Miami Tuesday night. With potential one-and-done center Aaron Bradshaw getting close to making his collegiate debut and finally giving the Wildcats a legitimate big man, it might not be a bad idea to sprinkle a little action on UK.)
10. Tennessee Volunteers
1 of 10
Current Title Odds: +2000 (Tied for ninth-best)
Reason to Buy: Sensational on defense
Per KenPom, Tennessee had the nation's most efficient defense last season. It is now three-plus weeks into its fourth consecutive year as a top-five D.
Even including the losses to Purdue and Kansas, the Volunteers have held every opponent thus far to under one point per possession, and they're averaging a combined total of 12.5 blocks and steals per game. Their rotations and intensity along the perimeter are second to none.
Reason to Sell: Still can't shoot
In the past decade-plus of Volunteers basketball, there was one year (2018-19) that this team could score at a high level. Aside from that, Tennessee has ranked 140th or worse in effective field-goal percentage in every season dating back to 2009-10.
Rick Barnes brought in Dalton Knecht from Northern Colorado to address that problem, and he has been great. But even with Knecht leading the offense, the Vols are around 250th in eFG% and just might be the worst-shooting team that Rick Barnes has had since landing in Knoxville.
Verdict: Selling
In addition to the aforementioned shooting woes, Tennessee's frontcourt situation isn't great.
Granted, plenty of frontcourts would look helpless when facing Zach Edey and Hunter Dickinson in back-to-back days, but the Volunteers were minus-23 on the glass between those two games and were outshot 58 percent to 34 percent on twos in the loss to Kansas.
Lack of size with Uros Plavsic, Olivier Nkamhoua and Julian Phillips all out of the picture was a concern for the Volunteers long before they went to Maui. They've gone from using Josiah-Jordan James as a 2/3 hybrid last year to using him as a stretch-4 who will need to play some small-ball 5 when Jonas Aidoo or Tobe Awaka gets into foul trouble.
Tennessee's defense can and should be elite, but it needs to be consistently dominant on that end of the floor to overcome the shooting and rebounding issues that could flare up in a big way during the course of a championship run.
9. Baylor Bears
2 of 10
Current Title Odds: +3000 (Tied for 13th-best)
Reason to Buy: The kids are more than alright
Baylor lost all three of its 15-plus PPG guys from last season, but freshmen Ja'Kobe Walter and Yves Missi have been great out of the gate. They were both substantially limited by foul trouble in the recent win over Florida, but they played huge roles in prior victories over Auburn and Oregon State.
Transfers RayJ Dennis and Jayden Nunn have also been crucial, volume-scoring additions.
Reason to Sell: Defense still has a lot of work to do
Baylor has only faced two opponents worth mentioning thus far, and it didn't exactly slow down either of them, with Auburn scoring 82 and Florida going for 91. In each game, offensive rebounds were a huge story for the opposition, with the Tigers getting 14 and the Gators getting 19.
Baylor has long been average at best in that department, but it used to at least make up for that with steals and/or blocks. The Bears have just been OK in those areas thus far, though all four of the aforementioned additions could play a huge part there.
Verdict: Buying
If I could actually buy only one of these 10 teams, Baylor would probably be the pick. Not because I think they have the best chance of winning it all, but because 30-1 odds is just ridiculous value for a team that has already shown the ability to score at a high level and that has the potential to generate a lot of steals and blocks.
The Bears have been a No. 3 seed or better in seven of the last 13 NCAA tournaments and are already in a good position to continue that trend. Only one of those years actually resulted in a trip to the Final Four, but the Bears are often a legitimate contender and did win it all three years ago.
One potential X-factor to monitor is Jonathan Tchamwa Tchatchoua. "Everyday Jon" has barely played this season, but he was such a key reserve for that 2021 championship team. If he finds his way back into the regular rotation, it would at least help Baylor's rebounding and probably its defensive prowess.
8. Miami Hurricanes
3 of 10
Current Title Odds: +3500 (Tied for 16th-best)
Reason to Buy: These dudes can shoot
Between Wooga Poplar, Nijel Pack, Bensley Joseph and Matthew Cleveland, Miami's four primary perimeter weapons entered Tuesday's game against Kentucky shooting a combined 47-for-92 (51.1 percent) from three-point range. As was the case throughout last year's run to the Final Four, it has felt like the Hurricanes cannot miss from distance.
They're also one of the best free-throw shooting teams in the nation at 82.7 percent.
Reason to Sell: No depth
Just two years ago, North Carolina made it all the way to the national championship while ranking 348th in the nation in bench minutes. You don't need to go 10 deep to win a title.
But can this Miami team get anything out of its bench in a pinch, or are the Hurricanes one rolled ankle and/or one whistle-happy referee away from disaster? Moreover, the predictive metrics are extremely skeptical about the No. 8 Hurricanes, who neither rebound nor defend at a high level.
Verdict: Selling
For what it's worth, we were buying Miami at +3500 prior to the shellacking it took at Rupp Arena Tuesday night. Because before that game, if we had conducted a fantasy draft of picks to win the national championship, Miami wasn't going No. 1, but it certainly wasn't lasting until No. 16, either.
Now?
Yeah, the Hurricanes may well still be sitting on the board after 20 picks following that display of lackluster defense, to put it lightly.
We already knew their defense wasn't great, especially in the frontcourt. Even during their run to last year's Final Four, 6'10" Darnell Brodie, 6'9" Trayce Jackson-Davis and 6'9" Adama Sanogo got pretty much anything they wanted in the paint against Miami, each scoring at least 20 points.
But Kentucky doesn't even have a frontcourt (yet). The Hurricanes got demolished by a team playing seven guards and one forward who had seven assists. And they still couldn't do anything to slow down the Wildcats. So the thought of running into a Hunter Dickinson or a Zach Edey in the NCAA tournament should terrify Miami fans.
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7. Duke Blue Devils
4 of 10
Current Title Odds: +1300 (Third-best)
Reason to Buy: Copious amounts of talent
With four top-25 recruits (Jared McCain, Caleb Foster, Sean Stewart and TJ Power) joining four returning starters (Kyle Filipowski, Jeremy Roach, Tyrese Proctor and Mark Mitchell), the sky is the limit for Duke. The Blue Devils also have Ryan Young and Jaylen Blakes getting quite a bit of early playing time.
By the end of the season, this should be easily one of the five best, deepest, most well-rounded rotations in the country.
Reason to Sell: Are they tough enough?
Duke got knocked out of last year's tournament in a very physical matchup with Tennessee, and it already suffered a pretty physical loss this season against Arizona. This is definitely a better shooting team than last year, but we'll be curious to see how the Blue Devils respond if they get both literally and figuratively punched in the mouth again in the NCAA tournament.
Verdict: Selling
Third-best title odds for Duke is more than a little aggressive.
Top 10? Sure. But ahead of Arizona, Connecticut and Houston? Ehhh...
The Blue Devils certainly have the potential to be great, but they got pushed around in the loss to Arizona, played extremely sloppy early against a Michigan State team that usually ranks miserably in defensive turnover percentage and then tried to sleepwalk their way through the first half against Southern Indiana.
While there have been young Duke teams in the past that were expected to have some growing pains in November, this one brought back four starters and still seems a bit discombobulated (aside from NPOY candidate Filipowski).
Wednesday's road game against a wounded Arkansas will be a big early litmus test for Duke's staying power as a title contender.
6. Houston Cougars
5 of 10
Current Title Odds: +1800 (Eighth-best)
Reason to Buy: Ridiculously good on defense once again
The schedule hasn't exactly been formidable thus far, but Houston has the stingiest defense in the nation at 49.0 points allowed per game. Even with Gabe Madsen and Branden Carlson shooting a combined 10-for-23 from three-point range, Utah still only managed 66 points (and fewer than one point per possession) in its 10-point loss to the Cougars.
They may have lost three starters from last season, but they still have Kelvin Sampson and their defensive identity.
Reason to Sell: Do they have enough of a frontcourt?
Each of the top five betting favorites to win the title has at least one key player 7'0" or taller. But Houston? It has 6'8" Ja'Vier Francis at center, who is neither much of a scoring threat nor is going to play even 25 minutes on a given night.
The Cougars were banking on 6'7" freshman JoJo Tugler filling the void of Jarace Walker's departure to the NBA, but he's nowhere near there yet.
Verdict: Buying
The frontcourt thing is a real concern, as is the fact that Houston's best scoring threat (LJ Cryer) is also its biggest defensive liability by far.
But how are you going to try to tell us that Houston deserves the eighth-best title odds when every predictive metric under the sun has the Cougars rated as a top-three team?
Their offense failed them in the 2022 Elite Eight. Their defense disappeared in the 2023 Sweet 16. But the Cougars have consistently been one of the top threats to win it all for four years running now.
We'll see how they handle life in a much better conference, but they'll likely just spend the next three months proving that they need to be taken seriously, as per usual.
5. Kansas Jayhawks
6 of 10
Current Title Odds: +1100 (Second-best)
Reason to Buy: Interior game is already outstanding
The three-headed force of Hunter Dickinson, KJ Adams and Kevin McCullar Jr. is a serious problem for KU's opponents. All three are shooting better than 64 percent inside the arc, with Dickinson and McCullar also thriving on the glass.
And when Parker Braun comes in off the bench, that's another career 67 percent two-point shooter who can do some damage both on the glass and as a shot-blocker.
Reason to Sell: Perimeter play
Kansas has plenty of willing passers, including McCullar, who already has two triple-doubles this season. But who's the knockdown perimeter shooter to replace Gradey Dick and Jalen Wilson?
And who's going to start jumping passing lanes for a team that had a combined turnover margin of negative-21 between the three games against Kentucky, Marquette and Tennessee?
Verdict: Selling
This frontcourt has the potential to be special, but we all know by now that guard play determines your ceiling in the NCAA tournament.
If you're betting on Kansas, you might feel like you're betting on Dickinson and McCullar, but who you're actually betting on are Dajuan Harris Jr. and Elmarko Jackson, which is a bit terrifying at +1100.
Harris was also a major variable for Kansas last year. When he had an O-rating of 77 or better—which is not asking much—the Jayhawks went 26-1. When he finished at 76 or below, they went 2-7. That trend has already continued into this season, as Harris had a 59 O-rating in Kansas' loss to Marquette.
And while Jackson was a top-20 recruit who could certainly blossom as the season progresses, the freshman point guard has shot 3-for-14 from the field with nine assists and eight turnovers over his last four games. Granted, facing Kentucky, Marquette and Tennessee two weeks into your college career is no picnic, but the Jayhawks need Jackson to be better to live up to the billing as the preseason No. 1 team and the current second favorite to win it all.
4. Connecticut Huskies
7 of 10
Current Title Odds: +1400 (Tied for fourth-best)
Reason to Buy: Dominating even without their freshman star
Stephon Castle suffered a knee injury in Connecticut's second game of the season against Stonehill, and he subsequently underwent a minor procedure which could keep him out until mid-December. And yet, Connecticut wiped the floor with Indiana and never trailed in the following 10-point victory over Texas, showcasing a seven-man rotation that has legitimate title potential even with the likely lottery pick sidelined.
Reason to Sell: Nobody repeats in college basketball these days
The last back-to-back national champion was Florida in 2006-07. And since the Gators pulled off that minor miracle, we haven't even had a defending champion make it back to the Final Four, let alone win it all for a second straight year.
That isn't a sound, logical reason to bet against this particular iteration of the Huskies. It's akin to betting on heads because you've seen 17 consecutive tails. But it does put more external pressure/attention on Connecticut than what it dealt with last year.
Verdict: Buying
The Huskies aren't quite as deep as they were last year (even if you include Castle in the rotation), but they sure are loaded.
The Donovan Clingan-Samson Johnson tandem at the 5 is a two-pronged wrecking ball. Tristen Newton is a nightly threat for a triple-double, while Cam Spencer is making all of the triples. Alex Karaban is even more cold-blooded than he was while starting almost every game as a freshman last year. Hassan Diarra is a valuable veteran glue guy. And while freshman Solomon Ball isn't shooting well thus far, he has a ton of potential and athleticism.
Assuming they get Castle back relatively soon and this doesn't turn into a Nick Smith Jr. situation in which the uber-talented freshman doesn't get fully healthy until it's too late for team-chemistry purposes, the reigning champions probably should be regarded as the biggest threat to win it all. So we'll buy them at the fourth-best odds.
3. Marquette Golden Eagles
8 of 10
Current Title Odds: +1500 (Sixth-best)
Reason to Buy: Unfinished business
Marquette lost O-Max Prosper to the NBA, but it otherwise has just about the exact same team that won the Big East's regular-season and tournament titles last year. The entire primary eight-man rotation played a key role on the 2022-23 squad, which has something to prove after getting bounced by Michigan State in the second round of the NCAA tournament.
And in some ways, Marquette already looks better than it ever did last year.
Reason to Sell: Shortcomings on the glass
Through their first six games, the Golden Eagles had a minus-19 rebound margin, particularly struggling to keep the opposition from getting offensive rebounds. In the Maui Invitational championship, Zach Edey had more offensive rebounds (seven) than Marquette's entire team (five), which made a huge difference late in that close contest.
Granted, there aren't many any other big men like Edey in college hoops right now, but Marquette also lost the rebound battle against both Illinois and UCLA, which helped keep both of those teams hanging around for longer than they should have.
Verdict: Selling
There may not be another team this season that is more enjoyable to watch than Marquette. Tyler Kolek has been dealing with a foot/ankle injury, but he's already getting flirtatious with triple-doubles. Sean Jones is lightning in a bottle. Oso Ighodaro is a human pogo stick. And both Kam Jones and David Joplin can make it rain from distance. Just a lot of fun here, as evidenced by the captivating Maui Invitational opener against UCLA.
But this team has the same red flags that it had one year ago, namely the negative rebound margin and the fact that the aggressive, ball-hawking defense leads to wide-open three-point looks a little too often for national-championship-betting comfort.
The Golden Eagles are going to win the turnover battle in just about every game, but is that enough?
2. Arizona Wildcats
9 of 10
Current Title Odds: +1400 (Tied for fourth-best)
Reason to Buy: Two great wins already, and holy rebound margin
Michigan State is nowhere near as good as was expected in the preseason, but between the neutral-site victory over the Spartans and the true road win over Duke, Arizona had itself one heck of an impressive November. MSU is the only team that even remotely held its own in the paint against the Wildcats, who had a plus-107 rebound margin through their first five games.
Reason to Sell: Arizona habitually underachieves in the tournament
In three of its last five trips to the NCAA tournament, Arizona was eliminated in the first round, including last year's embarrassing loss to Princeton. In the other two years, the Wildcats made it to the Sweet 16, but they should have made it at least to the Elite Eight, as they were a No. 1 seed in one year and a No. 2 seed in the other.
This program hasn't been to a Final Four since 2001 despite frequently finishing the year in the AP Top 25.
Verdict: Buying
Arizona has something special brewing, and it isn't even firing on all cylinders yet.
Big man Oumar Ballo hasn't been the force in the paint that everyone thought he would be. Pelle Larsson was limited by foul trouble in both of Arizona's marquee games to date. And Caleb Love (20 field-goal attempts against Michigan State) is already reverting to the overly ball-dominant guard that he was at UNC.
But Kylan Boswell has been awesome on both ends of the floor, as has Keshad Johnson. 7'2" freshman Motiejus Krivas may well be this year's version of what Donovan Clingan was for Connecticut last year, playing both a literal and figurative massive role off the bench for a championship team. It's just a rock-solid eight-man rotation that is going to dominate in the paint all year long.
1. Purdue Boilermakers
10 of 10
Current Title Odds: +900 (Best)
Reason to Buy: Every time a team loses to a No. 16 seed, it wins it all the next year
Sure, Purdue was only the second No. 1 seed to lose to a No. 16 seed in men's NCAA tournament history, but that ended up being exactly the motivation that Virginia needed to finally win a national championship back in 2019.
There's also the whole "Purdue is arguably the best team in the country with neutral-court victories over Gonzaga, Tennessee and Marquette already to its credit" factor, as well as the "Zach Edey might be even more unstoppable than last year" factor.
Reason to Sell: Always fade the favorite, especially if it's Purdue
Purdue has never won a national championship. It hasn't been to a Final Four since 1980. And the Boilermakers have only made it to an Elite Eight once in nearly two decades with Matt Painter as their coach, despite earning a No. 5 seed or better 10 times.
Not being able to deliver in March was a thing for this program long before the loss to Fairleigh Dickinson.
Verdict: Selling
In fairness, this isn't a blatant "stay away" line. Sometimes, the betting favorite will already be down in the +500 range by the end of November. Heck, two years ago, Gonzaga was sitting at +350 on Nov. 30.
Thus, at least from an "odds you're getting on the favorite" perspective, there's decent value here. However, this still isn't a championship backcourt.
Braden Smith was great in the wins over Gonzaga and Marquette, but he was completely shut down in between against Tennessee. Fletcher Loyer went in the opposite direction in Maui, exploding for 27 against the Volunteers and posting a sub-100 O-rating (and zero steals) in each of the other two games.
Southern Illinois transfer Lance Jones certainly gives this team some more intensity along the perimeter on defense, but he was never an efficient contributor on offense in his four seasons with the Salukis and hasn't been thus far for Purdue.
If Smith and Loyer get more consistent as the season progresses, I'll buy in on a second edition of the ultimate redemption story. But there were too many times last season where Purdue's offense was shut down in spite of yet another impressive night at the office for Edey. Because of that, the Boilermakers shouldn't be the betting favorite.
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