Dangerous Teams with Most Cinderella Potential in 2024 Men's NCAA Tournament

There is little doubt that college basketball finds itself in the prime era of upsets during the men's NCAA tournament.

Back in 2018, UMBC became the first No. 16 to dethrone a top-seeded team in the opening round of March Madness. Fairleigh Dickinson joined the exclusive club in 2023 when it stunned Purdue.

But that's simply the start of a much greater story.

Heading into 2024, three straight Big Dances have included a No. 15 knocking off a No. 2 seed. More than ever, the nation's best regular-season teams are becoming the villains—or, perhaps more accurately, the victims—of Cinderella stories in March.

One month away from the 2024 tourney, seven programs currently stand out as a low-seeded yet major thorn.

For the sake of consistency, a potential Cinderella team is projected no higher than a No. 12 seed—sorry, Indiana State—in the latest Bracket Matrix update as of this writing and isn't a high-major program.

Green Bay Phoenix

What an incredible turnaround.

Last season, Green Bay trudged to a 3-29 record and finished, according to KenPom, as the nation's third-worst team. Sundance Wicks inherited a program that had not cracked eight wins since the 2019-20 season.

So, naturally, the Phoenix are chasing a Horizon League title.

The surge is largely a credit to transfer guard Noah Reynolds, who's flirting with a 20-point scoring average. He played two seasons at Wyoming but followed Wicks, his assistant coach, to the Midwest.

Green Bay has a grinding style, ranking among KenPom's slowest tempos. However, the Phoenix methodically search for open shots on the perimeter. Only a handful of offenses take threes at a higher rate than Green Bay, which attempts nearly half of its shots from long distance.

If the Phoenix win the Horizon League tournament, they'll be an annoying first-round opponent for a No. 1 or 2 seed.

High Point Panthers

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Kezza Giffa

Depth is not a strength for High Point, and the defense can be vulnerable because of a guard-heavy rotation that lacks size.

For a low-major team, however, that's nothing new.

The greatest appeal with the Big South program is a talented offense that creates a whole lot of free-throw opportunities. No team boasts a higher rate of free throws compared to field goal attempts, and five key players may finish the season with an 80 percent clip or better.

Just as impactfully, High Point is among the nation's best rebounding teams. Juslin Bodo Bodo and Kimani Hamilton combine for more than six offensive boards per game, too.

Avoiding foul trouble and winning the rebounding battle are always quality goals, but doing so against High Point is a challenge.

Louisiana Tech Bulldogs

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Daniel Batcho

Will the program finally ends its NCAA tournament drought?

Louisiana Tech has recorded 11 seasons of 20-plus victories during the last two decades and is surging toward a 12th. Despite that success, the Bulldogs haven't been a part of March Madness since 1991.

Along with fifth-year guard Isaiah Crawford, Louisiana Tech is relying on a transfer-filled rotation. The main newcomers to know are Daniel Batcho (Texas Tech) and Tahlik Chavez (Charleston Southern). Batcho is averaging a double-double, while Chavez is a lethally efficient high-volume shooter from the perimeter.

But the Bulldogs win because of their defense.

So far, opponents have shot below 40 percent from the field. Louisiana Tech is near the top of the country in preventing shot attempts at the rim, according to Hoop-Math.com.

Louisiana Tech must win the Conference USA tourney to punch its ticket, but this would be a dangerous first-weekend foe.

UC Irvine Anteaters

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Justin Hohn

Although the program is typically among the Big West's top schools, UC Irvine last reached the NCAA tourney in 2019. That season, however, the Anteaters knocked off No. 4 Kansas State in the first round.

There may be a similar story brewing in 2024.

Should the Anteaters make the Big Dance, they'll be a pest because of their depth. Eleven players have appeared in 20-plus games and averaged at least 10 minutes. That's an absurd combination, quite frankly, and the fresh legs certainly help out UC Irvine's superb defense.

One fair concern is how diverse the 'Eaters can be, considering they—while efficient from the outside—don't attempt many triples. The offense's three-point attempt rate is well below 30 percent.

In the right matchup, though, UC Irvine can be a defensive-driven problem for a No. 3 or 4 seed.

Richmond Spiders

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Jordan King

Delicately planted on the bubble, Richmond needs a strong final month to snag an invite to March Madness.

The good news is the Spiders recently notched a high-quality win over Atlantic 10 foe Dayton and might be favored in every game down the stretch. The downside is that a soft remaining slate doubles as bad-loss central for a program that doesn't own a large margin for error.

Richmond's senior-laden rotation would not be a friendly matchup in the postseason, though.

Similar to Louisiana Tech and UC Irvine, defense is the strength of the Spiders. They're basically a non-factor on the offensive glass, which allows Richmond—which also rarely commits turnovers—to set up a stingy half-court defensive unit. Opponents are hovering around just 30 percent from three-point range.

Making the NCAA tourney is Step 1, but Richmond is a threat if it avoids an elite rebounding team on the opening weekend.

McNeese State Cowboys

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Shahada Wells

Led by former LSU coach Will Wade, McNeese is trending toward only the third NCAA tourney bid in program history.

Wade inherited a squad that has toiled to 11 straight losing seasons. Understandably, the Cowboys dove headfirst into the portal and emerged with leading scorer Shahada Wells (TCU), 11-point scorer DJ Richards (UTSA) and a handful of other transfers or junior college additions.

In short: Christian Shumate is the lone rotation player who held a key role on the 2022-23 squad.

The revamp has sparked a spectacular all-around ascent; McNeese is a top-30 group nationally in effective field-goal percentage on both ends of the floor, per Hoop-Math.com. Four players have a chance to hit 40-plus percent of their triples on three-plus attempts per game, and the defense generates steals as a top-10 rate.

At their current pace, the Cowboys would probably land a No. 12 or 13 seed. That is prime territory for an early upset, so a Sweet 16 trip would quickly be within reach for McNeese.

Grand Canyon Antelopes

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Tyon Grant-Foster

Grand Canyon's steady rise is reaching a new high in 2023-24.

Three weeks remain in the regular season, yet the Antelopes have already secured a third straight 23-win campaign. The program is eyeing its third NCAA tourney invitation in the last four seasons and clearly built to surpass the school record of 27 victories.

Bryce Drew has built a balanced defense that is solid in transition, rebounds well and creates a good number of steals.

Offensively, the Lopes relentlessly get to the three-throw line and are adequate from three. Tyon Grant-Foster, Gabe McGlothan and Rayshon Harrison each average 13-plus points for the WAC front-runners.

Factor in the eight-man rotation—one that can expand to 10, when healthy—and GCU is a stout potential No. 12 seed.