Predicting the Biggest Winners and Losers of the 2024 NHL Trade Deadline
When it comes to major events such as the NHL trade deadline or the draft, we typically wait until after they are finished to determine the winners and losers.
In this case, though, we're going to try to get ahead of the game and project some of the biggest winners and losers from this year's trade deadline before it happens on March 8.
It could be individual players who are going to get out of a bad spot and move to a contender, it could be teams that we think will do well and get the right player, or clubs we just don't have a lot of faith in when it comes to making the right move.
This is, of course, just hypothetical guesswork, but it should be fun.
The NHL trade deadline is now less than a month away, so let's start looking ahead.
Winner: Anthony Duclair
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It seems almost a given that Anthony Duclair, a pending unrestricted free agent, is going to be traded over the next month as part of the San Jose Sharks' rebuild.
That alone makes him a winner because he is almost certain to go from one of the NHL's worst teams to a likely contender.
It remains to be seen where that will be, but he's going to immediately find himself in a better situation from a hockey standpoint because he's going to have a chance to make the playoffs and will likely be getting an opportunity to play with better talent around him.
When healthy and in the right situation, the 28-year-old has proved to be a capable and skilled 20-30 goal-scorer and would be a great secondary scoring option for any contender. With nine goals in 46 games this season, he is on pace for 16 goals over 82 games.
Give him a playmaking center and put him into situations where he can focus on offense, and someone is likely to get a big performance from Duclair over the next few months.
Loser: Pittsburgh Penguins
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The Pittsburgh Penguins are in a no-win situation here.
They aren't guaranteed to make the playoffs, but they're starting to trend in a positive direction as they gain ground on a postseason spot.
As long as that is the case, there is virtually no chance they will trade winger and pending unrestricted free agent Jake Guentzel.
That means the Penguins will probably be looking to add. That would track with every move they made in the offseason and stay consistent with their philosophy of trying to compete every year while Sidney Crosby, Evgeni Malkin and Kris Letang are still in Pittsburgh.
Pittsburgh also has some pretty obvious needs. Its bottom-six forward lines are still lacking in offense, it could use an upgrade on defense and some depth, and a spark to fix its underachieving power-play unit would be handy.
The problem is the Penguins are unlikely to be eager to give up any of their major young assets, and they don't have many of those to trade.
The Pittsburgh farm system is one of the thinnest in the league, and it seems unlikely to trade top prospect Brayden Yager.
The 19-year-old is one of the few young players or prospects in the organization who actually projects to be an above-average NHL player. The Penguins' first-round pick is top-10 protected, but it could be headed to San Jose to complete the Erik Karlsson trade.
Pittsburgh is also a salary-cap team that would need to shed major money to add. It just all seems like a huge challenge.
The Penguins are probably not going to sell. They might not have the assets or cap space to make all of the upgrades they might need. It is the perfect situation for them to just sit and do relatively little, maybe even nothing at all.
Loser: Boston Bruins
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Even though they lost top centers Patrice Bergeron and David Krejčí to retirement a year ago, the Boston Bruins remain a bona fide Stanley Cup contender in the Eastern Conference.
They have two outstanding goalies (Linus Ullmark and Jeremy Swayman) and an impressive core of top-tier talents (David Pastrňák, Brad Marchand, Charlie McAvoy and Hampus Lindholm) that have helped send them back toward the top of the league standings.
However, Boston has still not replaced Bergeron and Krejčí. Even though the team's record is outstanding, this year's edition seems to have flaws lurking under the surface that might hold it back in the playoffs.
As good as Charlie Coyle and Pavel Zacha have been in taking over the top center roles, the Bruins could still probably use an upgrade down the middle.
They missed out on Elias Lindholm and Sean Monahan, and they may not have the means or resources to get themselves into the Adam Henrique bidding.
They have one of the league's thinnest farm systems, are pushed to the upper limits of the league's salary cap and lacking in draft-pick assets to trade. They don't have a selection in any of the first three rounds this year and do not have a second-round pick in 2025.
All of that seriously limits the sort of trade package Boston can put together. That is going to make it difficult to get the sort of upgrades it might need to round out its roster.
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Loser: New York Rangers
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The New York Rangers find themselves in a near-identical position for the third year in a row.
They are an excellent team, comfortably headed to the playoffs and a chance to make a deep run. But they also have a lot of flaws that are going to need to be fixed at the deadline, and that was true even before they lost forward Filip Chytil for the remainder of the season.
Predicting New York to be a loser isn't necessarily about management's inability to make the right moves—though finding itself in a similar spot every year is concerning—but rather the fact that it might need so many moves that it might be difficult to make them all.
The Rangers need more scoring depth on the wings at 5-on-5, a third-line center and could probably use an upgrade to the top four of their defense.
None of that even gets into the possibility of them trading 2019 No. 2 overall pick Kaapo Kakko, which could be a risky move because they would be dealing him at what is almost certainly his lowest possible value. That would be a huge potential mistake.
Winner: Montreal Canadiens
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In some ways, the Montreal Canadiens are already a winner because they managed to get a first-round pick for center Sean Monahan by trading him to the Winnipeg Jets.
When combined with the first-round pick they got from the Calgary Flames a year ago to take Monahan's contract, that means the Canadiens successfully turned him into two first-round picks for their rebuild.
That's a tidy bit of business by the front office and a masterclass in asset management.
The Canadiens might not be done when it comes to their deadline moves, though. They have a chance to add even more assets to their rebuild as they seem almost certain to shop goalie Jake Allen around the league.
While goalie trades can be complicated and not bring as much value as you might think, mainly due to the volatility and unpredictability of the position, there are enough contenders desperate for goaltending help that the Canadiens might be able to create a bidding war for his services.
It might even result in them adding another first-round selection to their draft-pick cupboard.
Winner: Calgary Flames
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With so many teams still in the playoff race, it might be a seller's market going into the trade deadline. And no team has more to potentially sell than the Calgary Flames.
They have started that process by trading pending unrestricted free agent center Elias Lindholm to the Vancouver Canucks for forward Andrei Kuzmenko, two prospects and a first-round pick.
With defensemen Chris Tanev and Noah Hanifin also on the roster as pending UFAs, not to mention veteran starting goalie Jacob Markstrom, it's not a stretch to think the Flames could add two more first-round picks if they go all in on selling—which they probably should do.
The Flames underachieved a year ago and have not really taken a step toward bouncing back this season.
They have some bad contracts, the best tradeable assets of any team at the deadline and a real opportunity to start hitting the reset button.
Even if they don't commit to a full rebuild anytime soon, getting a few more first-round picks could give them some serious trade capital for the offseason to try to get some immediate help back.
Winner: Adam Henrique
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Adam Henrique of the Anaheim Ducks is in a similar situation to Duclair with the Sharks.
The 34-year-old is a pending unrestricted free agent who is playing for one of the league's worst teams. That makes him a likely trade-deadline candidate, especially now that he's the best remaining center option on the market.
He would be a huge addition for any contender in need of center depth, including Colorado, New York Rangers or Boston.
With 15 goals and 33 total points in 49 games, he is on pace for 25 goals and 50 points over an 82-game season, making him a potentially ideal second- or third-line center option for any of the aforementioned teams.
Colorado might be the most intriguing choice because it has been looking for a second-line center to play behind Nathan MacKinnon ever since Nazem Kadri left in free agency, and Henrique would be an ideal fit in that spot as a rental.
The Avalanche have a first-round draft pick to deal from, but they would need to make the money work under the cap. If Henrique could end up with a team like Colorado, it would be a win-win-win for everybody involved.
The Lindholm and Monahan deals have established the market for Henrique as a first-round pick for the Ducks, the player would get to a better team with a chance to win, and that club gets an upgrade at a premium position.
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