Predicting Where Top Remaining 2024 MLB Free Agents Will Sign
Spring training is close enough to taste, but before the weather warms and the 2024 MLB season begins, the hot stove still has some work to do.
Among those still available on the free-agent market include a two-time Cy Young Award winner, a former NL MVP and a one-time World Series MVP.
And that says nothing of first baseman/designated hitter Brandon Belt, right-handed pitcher Michael Lorenzen, infielder Amed Rosario and outfielders Tommy Pham and Adam Duvall. All of whom are accomplished players still looking for their next teams but just missed out on cracking this list.
In reverse order of their ranking on the list of top free agents compiled by B/R's Joel Reuter at the outset of the offseason, here's a look at the 10 best remaining MLB free agents, with predictions on which teams they will play for in 2024.
IF/OF Whit Merrifield
1 of 10
Age in 2024 Season: 35
2023 Stats: .272/.318/.382, 11 HR, 67 RBI, 36 BB, .700 OPS, -1.5 fWAR
The Toronto Blue Jays likely won't be bringing Whit Merrifield back given they signed Isiah Kiner-Falefa, but the three-time All-Star could still help someone in the super-utility role.
Merrifield's natural position is second base, but he has extensive experience at all three outfield positions as well. It could be argued he's most valuable to a team when he's not just restricted to one position defensively.
In an appearance on MLB Network, Ron Darling made the case for the Chicago White Sox— now being run by Chris Getz, who has ties to the Royals organization—bringing in the long-time Kansas City star as they try to build a culture.
Absent a ton of credible rumors, it's hard to argue with Chicago as a landing spot, but the other Sox might be an even better fit.
Possible Fits: Chicago White Sox, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants
Landing Spot Projection: Red Sox
The Red Sox have Trevor Story slated to be their Opening Day shortstop, but his recent track record with injuries makes you think they'll need second baseman Vaughn Grissom to slide over there at some point. Merrifield could then take down the bulk of the work at second base. He could also serve as injury insurance for oft-injured left fielder Tyler O'Neill. Merrifield would replace the veteran presence lost when Justin Turner signed with the Blue Jays.
SS/2B Tim Anderson
2 of 10
Age in 2024 Season: 31
2023 Stats: .245/.286/.296, 1 HR, 25 RBI, 26 BB, .582 OPS, -0.5 fWAR
Yes, just about any way you slice it, Tim Anderson's final season with the Chicago White Sox was a disaster. But this was someone who hit .318 from 2019 to 2022 and was thought of highly enough to be on Team USA in last year's World Baseball Classic. The story of his baseball demise shouldn't be written just yet.
Anderson dabbled at second base in the WBC and has expressed a willingness to play there and/or shortstop moving forward. Given that he has minus-23 defensive runs saved at shortstop over the past two years, signing the former AL batting champion to play second base might be the best move.
But if you look at the market right now, he may have more value as a shortstop or a hybrid between the two spots.
The Miami Marlins have considered Anderson, among others, as they attempt to upgrade at shortstop, per The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal. Both Los Angeles teams make sense as well, and depending on where other free agents sign, the San Francisco Giants could be an interesting fit.
Ultimately, this may come down to whether Anderson would rather be guaranteed a certain amount of playing time or sign with an organization loaded with talent that would give him a chance to win, but where he'll have a shorter leash in terms of the hold on his position.
Possible Fits: Los Angeles Angels, Miami Marlins, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Dodgers
Landing Spot Projection: Dodgers
The Dodgers value positional flexibility, and signing Anderson would give them that. He would probably be the Opening Day starter at shortstop but would have Gavin Lux and/or Miguel Rojas pushing him if he struggles.
And if Mookie Betts—slated to open this season at second base—moves back to the outfield on a full or part-time basis, Anderson could either slide over to second base or play shortstop and allow Lux to play second. It just feels like if president of baseball operations Andrew Friedman lands Anderson, the rest of the league will be asking themselves the same question in a few months: How did we let the Dodgers get this guy on a low-risk, high-reward deal?
OF Michael A. Taylor
3 of 10
Age in 2024 Season: 33
2023 Stats: .220/.278/.442, 21 home runs, 51 RBI, 26 BB, .720 OPS, 1.7 WAR
Michael A. Taylor won't get on base a ton, but he's extremely valuable when delivering the type of power output he did a year ago for the Minnesota Twins. He's made a living from being one of the best outfielders in the sport, with 72 career defensive runs saved and 55 outs above average posted in parts of 10 seasons.
The Twins plan to have Byron Buxton start in center field this season, so from that perspective, a return to Minnesota might not be in the cards. Then again, 2017 was the last time Buxton played more than 95 games in a season, so it's always good to have a backup plan.
From Taylor's point of view, he'll likely want a more certain role on whatever team he signs with. So unless Buxton gets injured early in spring training (which unfortunately can't be discounted), the Twins might not be his best landing spot.
Robert Murray of FanSided reported in January that the Los Angeles Angels, San Diego Padres and Pittsburgh Pirates all have interest in Taylor. From here, the Milwaukee Brewers—a team with a ton of talented yet unproven young outfielders—might make sense as well.
Possible Fits: Minnesota Twins, San Diego Padres, Milwaukee Brewers, Pittsburgh Pirates, Los Angeles Angels
Landing Spot Projection: Padres
While Fernando Tatis Jr. is entrenched in right field, the Padres have serious question marks at their other two outfield spots, following the trade that sent Juan Soto and Trent Grisham to the New York Yankees in December. Taylor could open 2024 in center field for the Padres.
DH/OF Jorge Soler
4 of 10
Age in 2024 Season: 32
2023 Stats: .250/.341/.512, 36 HR, 75 RBI, 66 BB, .853 OPS, 1.9 WAR
The music is slowing down, and Jorge Soler is still looking for the right chair to sit in.
Soler has had a strange career. He led the American League with 48 home runs in 2019 while playing for the Kansas City Royals. He won the World Series MVP as a member of the Atlanta Braves in 2021. And in 2023, he was an All-Star with the Miami Marlins. But his results have been less impressive in even years, and he can't seem to find a long-term home.
Though he struggled in his first season with the Fish, Soler hit 36 home runs and posted an .853 OPS for a Marlins team that reached the playoffs in 2023. Granted, he chose to opt out of the final year of a three-year deal, but he was clearly worth more than the $13 million he would have made in 2024.
A new front office in Miami led by president of baseball operations Peter Bendix doesn't seem to be making much of a push to retain him, even if he would fit well on their team.
In any event, Soler is one of the most powerful sluggers in the league, and if you want a player capable of splitting time between left field and DH and hitting 30-40 home runs, he's your guy.
Possible Fits: San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Boston Red Sox, Miami Marlins
Landing Spot Projection: Giants
Susan Slusser of the San Francisco Chronicle reported on Feb. 5 that the Giants are "in talks" with Soler's camp. Teams sometimes discuss contracts with a free agent and don't ultimately reach a deal, but Soler would seem to be an ideal fit for a squad that didn't have a single player hit 25 home runs in 2023.
RHP Mike Clevinger
5 of 10
Age in 2024 Season: 33
2023 Stats: 9-9, 3.77 ERA, 4.28 FIP, 110 K's, 2.2 WAR, 131.1 IP
On the field, Mike Clevinger bounced back nicely with the Chicago White Sox in 2023 after a disappointing 2022 season with the San Diego Padres. The 131.1 innings were the most he's logged in a season since pitching 200 for Cleveland back in 2018.
From an on-field perspective, there's certainly reason to be interested in Clevinger as rotation depth.
What we don't know is how teams feel from a personal standpoint about the 33-year-old.
Clevinger faced allegations of domestic violence and child abuse last offseason, as the mother of one of his children accused him of physical, verbal and emotional abuse. Major League Baseball elected not to punish him after what it conducted a "comprehensive investigation." Clevinger denied the allegations and was not charged with a crime.
His arrival has the potential to anger a portion of the fanbase of whatever team he signs with.
Someone is going to sign Clevinger, but it's still a bit surprising that he declined his half of a $12 million mutual option. While declining the mutual option triggered a $4 million buyout, it has plunged Clevinger into an uncertain future in free agency.
Possible Fits: White Sox, Boston Red Sox, Colorado Rockies
Landing Spot Projection: Rockies
WEEI's Rob Bradford reported in January that the Red Sox would be a "preferred landing spot" for Clevinger, although it's unclear if that interest is reciprocated from the organization. Clevinger is probably a better fit for a small market, and the Rockies are always desperate for pitching.
DH/OF J.D. Martinez
6 of 10
Age in 2024 Season: 36
2023 Stats: .271/.321/.572, 33 HR, 103 RBI, 34 BB, .893 OPS, 2.2 WAR
After a fairly disappointing finish to his tenure with the Boston Red Sox, J.D. Martinez was excellent in what will prove to be his lone season with the Los Angeles Dodgers, clubbing 33 home runs, driving in 103 runs and posting an .893 OPS.
With the Dodgers signing Shohei Ohtani, Martinez will be playing for a new team in 2024. He has some limitations in the sense that he's almost exclusively a DH at this point, and he'll turn 37 in August. Still, after his performance with the Dodgers in 2023, betting on his bat over multiple years doesn't seem to be an outlandish proposition.
Jon Heyman of the New York Post reported in late December that both the New York Mets and Los Angeles Angels were "eyeing" Martinez, while the Guardians and Marlins are both hopeful contenders who need to add thump to their lineups.
Possible Fits: Los Angeles Angels, Cleveland Guardians, New York Mets, Miami Marlins
Landing Spot Projection: Angels
The Angels haven't elected to tear their entire roster down after losing Ohtani, which leads you to believe they are hopeful to be competitive in 2024. Whether that's realistic or not, Martinez would slot in as the team's DH and allow the Angels to either trade Brandon Drury or utilize him all throughout the infield in 2024.
3B Matt Chapman
7 of 10
Age in 2024 Season: 31
2023 Stats: .240/.330/.424, 17 HR, 54 RBI, 62BB, .755 OPS, 3.5 WAR
If you want a third baseman who hits for power and plays excellent defense, Matt Chapman is your guy. It's just unclear if anyone wants him on a deal that guarantees him between $130 and $150 million over six years.
Chapman won his fourth career Gold Glove in 2024, recording 12 defensive runs saved and four outs above average. He's been a defensive wizard for much of his career, including winning the Platinum Glove as the best defender in the American League on two occasions (2018 and 2019) while playing for the Oakland Athletics.
However, when talking about making an investment of a half decade or longer in a player in their early 30s, it is fair to wonder how many more elite defensive years he has in him. It's also fair to not love the .663 OPS that Chapman posted after the All-Star break in his contract year.
The door isn't closed for Chapman to return to the Blue Jays, but the team has signed veterans Justin Turner and Isiah Kiner-Falefa this offseason and appears comfortable with the idea of moving Cavan Biggio to the hot corner on a full-time basis.
Chapman may run into an issue where the Blue Jays are only interested in bringing him back if his asking price drops significantly, and the Chicago Cubs only see him as a fall-back option if Cody Bellinger departs in free agency. And it's worth noting that Chapman is represented by Scott Boras, the same agent employed by Bellinger, among other free agents still available.
Possible Fits: San Francisco Giants, Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays
Landing Spot Projection: Giants
Slusser reported in January that the Giants were one of six teams showing interest in Chapman. A return to the Bay Area would make sense for him, especially considering the Giants hired his former A's manager, Bob Melvin, to be their new skipper this offseason.
LHP Jordan Montgomery
8 of 10
Age in 2024 Season: 31
2023 Stats: 10-11, 3.20 ERA, 3.56 FIP, 166 K's, 4.3 WAR, 188.2 IP
Jordan Montgomery was excellent for the Texas Rangers after being acquired in a midseason trade with the St. Louis Cardinals. The lefty was particularly effective in the postseason, where he posted a 2.90 ERA across 31 innings, helping lead the Rangers to the first World Series title in franchise history.
A return to Texas has always felt like the best fit for Montgomery, particularly when you consider that Max Scherzer will miss at least the first two months of the season after having surgery on a herniated disk in his back, and if they get anything from Jacob deGrom as he recovers from his second Tommy John surgery, it will be a bonus.
Elsewhere, the Boston Red Sox and Los Angeles Angels desperately need anything resembling front-line pitching, and Montgomery would fit that bill if they are willing to spend $130 million-plus.
"Several" anonymous executives predicted to USA Today's Bob Nightengale that the Philadelphia Phillies might be a sleeper for Montgomery, but there's no evidence that's the case yet. In fact, Matt Gelb of The Athletic reported in January that Phillies aren't in on Montgomery, "barring an unforeseen market collapse."
Possible Fits: Texas Rangers, Boston Red Sox, San Francisco Giants, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees
Landing Spot Projection: Rangers
Last week, Diamond Sports Group and the Rangers reached a tentative agreement that will allow the regional sports network to continue broadcasting the games of the defending World Series champions in 2024. If that deal is approved by a bankruptcy judge, it may give the Rangers what they need to feel comfortable making a major investment in Montgomery.
OF/1B Cody Bellinger
9 of 10
Age in 2024 Season: 28
2023 Stats: .307/.356/.525, 26 HR, 97 RBI, 40 BB, .881 OPS, 4.1 WAR
Like Snell, Cody Bellinger is a very accomplished player who has some red flags that have kept teams from meeting what was likely a significant asking price at the outset of the offseason.
Bellinger is a former NL Rookie of the Year and MVP who had a nice bounce back in 2024 with the Chicago Cubs. That doesn't erase the fact that he hit just .203 with a .648 OPS between 2020 and 2022, leading to his non-tender by the Los Angeles Dodgers.
There are also concerns about how Bellinger will age given the violent nature of his swing, and the fact that his hard-hit percentage in 2023 was 29.2 percent, as opposed to 49.2 percent when he won the NL MVP in 2019.
That's not to say there isn't a lot to like about Bellinger, who had an excellent offensive season in 2023 and is still only entering his age-28 season. He also has a Gold Glove on his resume in right field, with extensive experience on top of that in center field and at first base.
Bellinger will probably be of the most value to a team that plans to have him begin his contract primarily playing in center field and believes the successful offensive adjustments he made in 2023 with the Cubs are sustainable.
Possible Fits: Chicago Cubs, Toronto Blue Jays, San Francisco Giants
Landing Spot Projection: Cubs
A report from Nightengale this past weekend tried to push the Phillies into the market for Bellinger, but that seemed like something coming at least in part from his agent, Scott Boras.
MLB.com's Mark Feinsand reported in January that the "widespread belief" in baseball remained that Bellinger would ultimately re-sign with the Cubs, but "only if/when his asking price comes down." The Cubs still feel like the best pick for Bellinger to us.
LHP Blake Snell
10 of 10
Age in 2024 Season: 31
2023 Stats: 14-9, 2.25 ERA, 3.44 FIP, 234 K's, 4.1 WAR, 180 IP
Blake Snell became the seventh player in MLB history to win a Cy Young Award in both leagues this past season, but teams haven't exactly been kicking down his door this offseason to give over $200 million.
The reality for Snell is that while he has two ERA titles on his resume (2018 and 2023), those are the only two campaigns in which he's thrown more than 130 innings. He's never come close to pitching 200 innings in a season. And his success has come in two smaller media markets with the Tampa Bay Rays and San Diego Padres.
Nightengale recently reported that the Toronto Blue Jays have been "quietly monitoring" Snell's market this offseason, although the extent of their interest is unclear.
At one point this offseason, the Yankees "were willing to go above" the $27 million per year they signed Carlos Rodon for last offseason to sign Snell, according to Heyman.
Instead, the Yankees signed Marcus Stroman to a two-year, $37 million deal, which doesn't necessarily preclude them from adding Snell, but makes them less motivated to meet him at his terms.
A slew of teams nominally make sense for Snell, but he may have to come down from the close to $200 million he seemed likely to get at the outset of the offseason and/or join a team that doesn't offer an immediate path to contention.
Possible Fits: San Francisco Giants, Boston Red Sox, Toronto Blue Jays, Los Angeles Angels, New York Yankees, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners
Landing Spot Prediction: Los Angeles Angels
The Angels didn't have enough pitching with Shohei Ohtani in the fold, and they definitely don't now that he's joined the Los Angeles Dodgers. The Athletic's Ken Rosenthal reported in January that the Angels had interest in Snell, who would immediately become the ace for the Halos. Boras -- Snell's agent -- and Angels owner Arte Moreno have a bit of a rocky history, but that shouldn't prevent a deal from getting done if it's best for both parties.
Wherever he signs, expect his contract to allow him to opt out and return to free agency relatively early in the deal.
Advanced statistics via FanGraphs and Baseball Savant unless otherwise noted.
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